##TheStrategyLab Price Action Chat Room Logs

Session Start: Thu Apr 09 09:28:47 2009
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[09:28] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[09:28] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[09:30] <drt> everyone
[09:32] <pat255>
[09:32] <+pat255> geez hate these kinds of moves up ...& now wait for p/b
[09:33] <+pat255> I hate gap and go days, so I need something very clean and compelling to trade there
[09:34] <+pat255> a spectator today
[09:34] <+pat255> i guess
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> Anybody having data problems today ??
[09:43] <+pat255> not here
[09:43] <kosmipt> my data OK
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> Both my Futuresource and Qcharts (owned by eSignal gang) are not loading
[09:43] <+drt> ib ok today
[09:44] <@NihabaAshi> My brokers are ok...just my realtime data vendors is not
[09:46] <+kosmipt> they decided to go on a weekend a day earlier
[09:50] <szubaark> Buys ES @ 843.25 «« paper »»
[09:51] <+szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 841.50 «« paper »»
[09:52] <+szubaark> need to watch my Stops closely, been getting sloppy and lazy with Stops
[09:52] <+kosmipt> Long ES @ 844.75 «« simulator »»
[09:53] <+kosmipt> 848 previous swing high
[09:55] <+szubaark> yea take Profits on any Volatility spike as heavy Resistannce above
[09:57] <+szubaark> hopefully i can catch a Nice Bullish WRB
[09:59] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 846 --> + 2.75 «« paper »»
[09:59] <+kosmipt> Exited all ES Long @ 846.25 --> + 1.5 «« simulator »»
[10:00] <@NihabaAshi> eSignal website slow to load...anybody else
[10:00] <@NihabaAshi> http://forum.esignalcentral.com/
[10:01] <@NihabaAshi> That's their forum
[10:01] <+kosmipt> looks fine for me
[10:01] <@NihabaAshi> Ok...thanks
[10:06] <@NihabaAshi> Just got off the phone with eSignal...they said "everything is ok...must be my computer".
[10:06] <+szubaark>
[10:07] <@NihabaAshi> However, both computers here at home doesn't work on QCharts and Futuresource...
[10:07] <@NihabaAshi> Just called my spouse that's at our condo at the ski resort (25mins away) and asked her to boot up QCharts on the desktop their...
[10:08] <@NihabaAshi> She said it won't but she was able to log into my Velocity X_Trader platform with no problem.
[10:08] <@NihabaAshi> Hmmm ??
[10:08] <+szubaark> actually could be a lot of things..phone line,computer(bad registry),router
[10:09] <@NihabaAshi> 3 different computers within a 25mile radius...no QCharts and no FutureSource
[10:09] <+szubaark> if i cant figure out whats wrong i just invite tech to my computer (he controls it) and fixes it
[10:10] <@NihabaAshi> My sierra charts works fine and so does all my brokers.
[10:10] <@NihabaAshi> Puzzling.
[10:11] <+kosmipt> probably your ISP
[10:11] <@NihabaAshi> I know eSignal just released a new upgrade a few days ago for both QCharts and Futuresource...I have not upgraded yet and both programs were working normal until 0930am est (exact).
[10:11] <@NihabaAshi> ISP at the condo is different.
[10:12] <+kosmipt> ok
[10:12] <@NihabaAshi> DSL at the condo...cable here at home.
[10:14] <@NihabaAshi> Be right back...going next door to my neighbors house (I'm watching it for him while he's away in Afghanistan)...will see if Qcharts doesn't boot up on his computer.
[10:14] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
[10:26] <@NihabaAshi_away> Ok...I'm back...
[10:26] <@NihabaAshi_away> It doesn't work their either.
[10:26] <@NihabaAshi_away> But...
[10:27] <@NihabaAshi_away> Esignal now has a auto message when called that saids their "servers are down and their trying to fix it" or something like that.
[10:27] * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi
[10:28] <@NihabaAshi> Not sure if that means only the servers for QCharts and Futuresource or the entire eSignal network.
[10:28] <@NihabaAshi> I guess the earlier call eSignal tech guy didn't know his head from his ass
[10:28] <@NihabaAshi> "must be your computer".
[10:28] <@NihabaAshi> Geeesh.
[10:29] <@NihabaAshi> Therefore, to those in here using eSignal...you're not having any problems ??
[10:29] <@NihabaAshi> That's odd considering if you call them something major is down !!!
[10:32] <@NihabaAshi> Meant...when you call them you can no longer get tech support...instead you get a auto message specifically stating their servers are down.
[10:34] <@NihabaAshi> Other's having problems too...
[10:34] <@NihabaAshi> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea ... did=160271
[10:34] <+pat255>
[10:35] <@NihabaAshi> They just did some major upgrades too a few days ago...I remember seeing a announcement pop up on my QCharts screen on Monday when I booted it up.
[10:36] <@NihabaAshi> I need to learn when a tech guy quickly tells me "it must be your computer"...
[10:36] <@NihabaAshi> Something is wrong on their side
[10:42] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Archived trade posting chat logs have a new location. They are now stored @ viewforum.php?f=20
[10:45] * codehead_afk is now known as codehead
[10:52] <pdays> Shorts TF @ 458.3
[10:56] <+pdays> Covered all TF Short @ 458.7 --> - 0.4
[10:59] <@NihabaAshi> If I didn't have a ton of website work...I would just call it quits for the day and meet the spouse and kids for a day of skiing at the condo
[11:00] <+pat255> wow still snow a round your area...nice
[11:01] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...most of it melted away in the lower elevations but we got some heavy snow fall over the past two days in the lower elevations...just a little in the higher elevations but skiiing is still good.
[11:02] <+pat255>
[11:02] <@NihabaAshi> I think the ski resort officially closes next weekend
[11:02] <@NihabaAshi> Yet, you'
[11:03] <@NihabaAshi> You'll still see a few of the dare devel snow boarders breaking the rules using the slopes when the resort closes
[11:03] <+pat255> man those snow boarders are scary ...young kids ..lol
[11:04] <@NihabaAshi> yeah...most don't have helmets
[11:04] <+pat255> lol brave ..but dangrous ...
[11:04] <+szubaark> hi jb
[11:05] <rickf> back
[11:05] <@NihabaAshi> Yep...had a few well known cases this year of people dying from brain injuries caused by bad falls on the slopes.
[11:05] <@NihabaAshi> Gotta wear those helmets
[11:06] <+pat255> absolutely same here too old men riding motor cycles no helmet
[11:06] <+szubaark> right now local high school kids have staged MMA fights everywhere lol
[11:06] <@NihabaAshi> Heck...my 6 years skis the adult slopes...he wears a helmet, mouth piece, chin guard, knee pads
[11:07] <@NihabaAshi> meant my 6 year old
[11:07] <jbuch> hey szu how is it going
[11:08] <+szubaark> trying hard to stay Disciplined today..so far so good
[11:17] <+jbuch> Dang I missed it you guys were chatting about skiing one of my favorite subjects.
[11:17] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 845 «« paper »»
[11:22] <+jbuch> what an exciting market today
[11:23] <+codehead> short ES 845.0 <paper>
[11:25] <+codehead> exit half +1.00 <paper>
[11:25] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 843.50 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»
[11:26] <+codehead> stop b/e remainder <paper>
[11:26] <+codehead> 842.5 first target
[11:27] <+codehead> exit ES +2.25 <paper>
[11:28] <+jbuch> first touch of the 20 ema all day
[11:32] <+rickf> long es 842.25
[11:40] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 842 «« paper »»
[11:44] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 841 --> - 1 «« paper »»
[11:44] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 841 «« paper »»
[11:47] <+jbuch> it's funny I was telling myself within the first 15 min of trading that it was going too be a trend day. looks like I got the direction wrong though.
[11:54] <+szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 842 «« paper »»
[11:56] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 84.6
[11:56] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 842 --> - 1 «« paper »»
[11:56] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 842 «« paper »»
[11:57] <+rickf> exit es 942.50 +.25
[11:57] <+rickf>
[11:58] <+jbuch> man thats alot of pain and suffering for .25
[11:58] <+szubaark>
[11:58] <+rickf> i didn't really watch it --- kind of saw the trend was up, but noodling around, i said ferget ikit and bailed
[11:58] <@NihabaAshi> I got my charts back
[11:58] <+rickf> of course now it'll pop
[11:59] <+rickf> too much time for a trade to move makes me uncomfortable
[12:01] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 84.69 --> + 0.09
[12:02] <+jbuch> yup I hear ya rick
[12:04] <+rickf> a quirky week
[12:04] <+jbuch> it has been a hard one
[12:05] <+szubaark> Exited remainder Long ES at 842.25 --> + 0.25 «« paper »»
[12:06] <+rickf> lightening up some of my options positions today - good pop to lock in some profits on the equity side
[12:07] <+jbuch> ya doing the same
[12:07] <+jbuch> maybe an evening star on the daily
[12:12] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 843.00 -> small size
[12:12] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[12:12] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 843.75 «« paper »»
[12:13] <+szubaark> took my Limit@.75 but didnt go higher
[12:14] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 843.25 --> + 0.25
[12:14] <@NihabaAshi>
[12:14] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 842.50 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»
[12:14] <+szubaark> (
[12:14] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 842.50 «« paper »»
[12:16] <winmax60> Shorts ES @ 841.5 -> small size «« simulator »»
[12:19] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 842.50 --> 0 «« paper »»
[12:20] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 842.25 -> small size
[12:20] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[12:29] <+winmax60> Covered all ES Short @ 843.5 --> - 2 «« simulator »»
[12:30] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 844.25 «« paper »»
[12:31] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 844.00 --> + 1.75
[12:31] <+szubaark> ill need a volatility spike soon due to my entry waiting for that "extra" confirmation
[12:32] <+jbuch> Shorts SPY @ 84.83
[12:35] <+szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 843 «« paper »»
[12:36] <+szubaark> taking long break after this trade, typical range chop crap again
[12:39] <+jbuch> Covered all SPY Short @ 84.82 --> + 0.01
[12:42] <+jbuch> it is like watching paint dry
[12:43] <+szubaark> all the moves happen Overnight when we
[12:44] <+szubaark> IB lowered Margins, business must be bad
[12:44] <+jbuch> ya big gap days tend to suck
[12:44] <+szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 843.25 «« paper »»
[12:45] <+szubaark> gonna trail this see what i can get..hopefully i wont fall asleep
[12:45] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Archived trade posting chat logs have a new location. They are now stored @ viewforum.php?f=20
[12:50] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 843.75 --> - 0.5 «« paper »»
[12:52] <+jbuch> Shorts SPY @ 84.45
[12:53] <+jbuch> oops 84.85 not 84.45
[13:02] <+jbuch> Covered all SPY Short @ 84.45 --> 0
[13:08] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 84.91
[13:12] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 85.01 --> + 0.1
[13:54] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 846.50 «« paper »»
[14:01] <@NihabaAshi> 2 - 3 quick ticks up than 1 - 2 ticks down than 2 - 3 quick ticks up...on and on
[14:01] <@NihabaAshi> creeper price action
[14:10] <+szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 845.25 «« paper »»
[14:10] <+szubaark> pusshhhhh
[14:15] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 845.25 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»
[14:15] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 844.75 «« paper »»
[14:17] <+szubaark> Volatility increasing to downside
[14:17] <+szubaark> hopefully its not ANOTHER fake shakeout lol
[14:17] <drt> l es 43.75
[14:18] <+szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 844.75 «« paper »»
[14:18] <+szubaark> dont want to get faked out here incase it Rockets to upside
[14:19] <+drt> cl es 44.25
[14:20] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 844.50 --> + 0.25 «« paper »»
[14:20] <+szubaark> they ran a bunch of Stops
[14:24] <+drt> s es 44.75
[14:26] <+drt> cs es 45.25
[14:26] <+rickf> so if we go up 23 on the ES for good WFC numbers can we expect the same from good data from BAC, C, GS, et al?
[14:35] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 846.75 «« paper »»
[14:39] <+rickf> oh yeah - we're closed tomorrow
[14:41] <TraderG> why?
[14:41] <+rickf> good friday
[14:42] <+TraderG> is that the day u go 2 the pub ALL day?
[14:43] <+rickf>
[14:43] <@NihabaAshi> Enjoy the Friday off because next week I'm expecting the market to put in a BIG TRREND DAY.
[14:44] <+rickf> oh like today?
[14:44] <+szubaark> wrbtrader any guess which way?
[14:44] <@NihabaAshi> No...today is a UPGAP day...most retail traders wasn't on board prior to the open.
[14:45] <@NihabaAshi> When I talk about trend days...I'm talking about from Open to Close via the regular trading session.
[14:47] <@NihabaAshi> Simply, next week I'm going to be doing a lot of "scaling outs" instead of "all out at once" in hopes of having some contract remainders when the price action decides to trend.
[14:50] <+rickf> any bets on whether we roll over in the final hour?
[14:51] <@NihabaAshi> If we do...we shouldn't drop below 845 level
[14:51] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Archived trade posting chat logs have a new location. They are now stored @ viewforum.php?f=20
[14:51] <+szubaark> this looked strong since open..any drop has been Stop running
[14:51] <+rickf> true
[14:51] <+szubaark> last one around 2:40 pm
[14:52] <+rickf> short es 850 1 ct
[14:54] <+rickf> out 849 +1
[14:56] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 848 --> + 1.25 «« paper »»
[14:57] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 849 «« paper »»
[14:57] <+szubaark> what a deep frikin pullback
[14:57] <+szubaark> came back to shake me out for +1 (((
[15:01] <+codehead> short ES 849.25 small <paper>
[15:02] <+codehead> stop 2.5
[15:02] <+codehead> only to see if we get a top of hour pb
[15:02] <+codehead> bond close
[15:02] <+codehead> it broke the 849-850 resistance level
[15:03] <+codehead> i actually shorted 849.5 on the way up, took a couple of ticks when it wouldn't pull back more
[15:03] <+codehead> 846.75 first target
[15:03] <+codehead> 743.75 next
[15:03] <+codehead> 843.75
[15:05] <+codehead> but bulls still in control and the upside is pretty far away
[15:06] <+szubaark> would like to see one more spike to upside before a long slow controlled pullback
[15:07] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 849 --> 0 «« paper »»
[15:07] <+szubaark> dont like this stall here
[15:08] <+codehead> can get dicey last hour of end of week
[15:08] <+codehead> i've been setting up new computer today, so only took the one trade, i don't think i'll do much gambling this late
[15:09] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 850 «« paper »»
[15:12] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 848.50 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»
[15:12] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 848.75 «« paper »»
[15:12] <+szubaark> TANK!!!
[15:16] <+codehead> exit half ES +1.5 <paper>
[15:16] <+codehead> move stop b/e remainder <paper>
[15:16] <@NihabaAshi> It's got a few strong support levels below
[15:17] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 848.75 --> 0 «« paper »»
[15:17] <+szubaark>
[15:18] <+szubaark> yup, another Stop run
[15:18] <+codehead> stopped flat on remainder ES <paper>
[15:18] <+TraderG> by who?
[15:18] <+szubaark> THEM
[15:18] <+TraderG> ooooooooooooooooooo
[15:18] <+TraderG> spooky
[15:18] <+codehead> i don't think 851.0 is anything much...
[15:18] <+szubaark> they gonna get ya
[15:19] <+TraderG> oh no
[15:19] <+codehead> so watch out short if it gets thru
[15:19] <+codehead> 849-850 was res
[15:19] <+TraderG> MOMMY
[15:19] <+codehead> and it broke that
[15:19] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 850.25 -> small size
[15:19] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:20] <+szubaark> in this market, split second decisions have to be made
[15:20] <+TraderG> it is important not to have Parkinson's as well
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> I really wanted that 850 entry but couldn't get it...now it drops and I'm already on board
[15:22] <+rickf> bleh .... traders gone home already it seems
[15:24] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 848.75 --> 0 «« paper »»
[15:24] <+szubaark> not going anyhere
[15:24] <@NihabaAshi> Exited ES Long @ 849.00 --> - 1.25
[15:24] <@NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 849.00
[15:24] <@NihabaAshi> retest of 848 than back up again
[15:25] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 828.25 «« paper »»
[15:25] <@NihabaAshi> gessh...it hit 848 as soon as I typed it
[15:26] <+szubaark> yea its ping pong time
[15:26] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 84.29
[15:26] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 849.75 --> - 21.5 «« paper »»
[15:27] <+jbuch> Exited Remainder SPY Long @ 84.3 --> + 0.01
[15:29] <@NihabaAshi> Those support levels below are attractive but ES doesn't look like it will easily be seduced to go check them out
[15:30] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 849.50 «« paper »»
[15:30] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 849.50 --> - 0.5
[15:30] <@NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 849.50
[15:30] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:31] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 848.50 --> - 1
[15:32] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 848 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»
[15:32] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 848 «« paper »»
[15:32] <+szubaark> piling up some losses now ((((((
[15:33] <+szubaark> screw scalping this range for Ticks BREAK and give me some Points
[15:33] <@NihabaAshi> It's the famous tight chop before the next spike into the close
[15:33] <+rickf> not even gonna try it
[15:34] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 849.25 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»
[15:34] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 849.25 «« paper »»
[15:34] <@NihabaAshi> 2.50 range
[15:35] <+szubaark> yea this range made sure i end NEGATIVE for today ((
[15:35] <+szubaark> Ill need 7 Point spike from Hell to go Positive
[15:35] * +rickf added 25 to my SDS hedge
[15:35] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 849.75 -> medium size
[15:36] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:36] <+szubaark> that was Brutal Range
[15:36] <@NihabaAshi> It's still in the range...just the upper part of it.
[15:36] <@NihabaAshi> It needs to get above 850.75
[15:37] <+codehead> BAC 9.77, close around 7 yesterday
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 849.75 --> 0
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> so tight...too difficult to try a position reversal.
[15:38] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 849.25 --> 0 «« paper »»
[15:38] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 850.75 «« paper »»
[15:38] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 850.50 -> medium size
[15:38] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:39] <+szubaark> hahahah..they had to do one last shakeout
[15:39] <+rickf> hrmm we might just run up yet
[15:39] <@NihabaAshi> a lot of fight at 850.75
[15:40] <+szubaark> man i took 7 losses for -7.50 Points in that Range.. those always give me trouble
[15:41] <+szubaark> even for 1point those buggers ADD UP FAST
[15:41] <+szubaark> then add commissions and its a uphill battle
[15:41] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 850.75 --> + 0.25
[15:41] <@NihabaAshi>
[15:42] <+jbuch> brutal
[15:42] <+szubaark> im down huge this week..too frikin tough to even make $50 bucks
[15:42] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 849.25 -> small size
[15:42] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:42] <+szubaark> frikin Chop ranges, failed breakouts and Stop pullbacks
[15:43] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 848.25 --> - 2.5 «« paper »»
[15:43] <+szubaark> (
[15:43] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 848.25 «« paper »»
[15:43] <+szubaark> blinked, forgot to exit for -1
[15:44] <@NihabaAshi> I did an earlier Short at this level and lost
[15:45] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 849.00 --> + 0.25
[15:45] <@NihabaAshi> That 848.00 held again
[15:45] <+szubaark> nerve wrecking
[15:45] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 849.00 -> small size
[15:45] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:46] <@NihabaAshi> maybe the 4 time around it won't hold
[15:47] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 849.00 --> 0
[15:48] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 850.00 -> small size
[15:48] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:48] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 850.25 --> - 2 «« paper »»
[15:49] <+szubaark> Shorts ES @ 849.25 «« paper »»
[15:49] <@NihabaAshi> pin ball machine
[15:51] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 850.25 --> + 0.25
[15:51] <+rickf> 51 is hard resistance it seems
[15:51] <+szubaark> its not going down either
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 850.50 -> small size
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> It's trying to go up..."trying"
[15:53] <+rickf> i think i can i think i can
[15:53] <+szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 851.50 --> - 2.25 «« paper »»
[15:53] <+szubaark> Buys ES @ 851.75 «« paper »»
[15:53] <@NihabaAshi> geeeesh
[15:53] <+rickf> trying to break 52
[15:53] <+szubaark> gezz down -20 Points for day
[15:54] <+szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 851.25 --> - 0.5 «« paper »»
[15:54] <@NihabaAshi> tight stop again
[15:54] <+rickf> damn szu
[15:54] <@NihabaAshi> Exited ES Long @ 851.00 --> + 0.5
[15:54] <+szubaark> i cant trade these tight ranges..
[15:54] <@NihabaAshi>
[15:54] <+kosmipt> Shorts ES @ 850.25 «« simulator »»
[15:54] <+szubaark> u have to Sell TOP buy Bottom and Scalp for ticks
[15:54] <+szubaark> tough frikin week
[15:55] <+szubaark> thinkm i only had i UP DAY..feel like a newbie
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> I tried the minute charts in this tight range...got hit with a few losses.
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> Doing better with the 10sec to 30sec charts
[15:56] <+rickf> i increase my tick sizes .... 133 --> 333 ---> 512 and 1600 in the pm session to cut out the noise
[15:56] <+rickf> mostly 512 is where i try to be, but if the market won't give it to me, i'll adjust
[15:56] <+szubaark> usually one day like this can wipe out whole weeks profits
[15:56] <+kosmipt> Covered all ES Short @ 851.25 --> - 1 «« simulator »»
[15:57] <+kosmipt> Long ES @ 851.50 «« simulator »»
[15:57] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 851.50 -> small size
[15:57] <+rickf> u chasing today szu?
[15:57] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:58] <+szubaark> getting caught in tight ranges looking for breakout
[16:00] <+kosmipt> Exited all ES Long @ 854 --> + 2.5 «« simulator »»
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 853.75 --> + 2.25
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> geeesh...toughest closing trading day in awhile for me.
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> I had to work hard for it.
[16:01] <@NihabaAshi> almost dumped it for breakeven when it started that pin ball machine like price action
[16:03] <+codehead> whew, 1B shares BAC
[16:03] <+codehead> nice nihaba
[16:04] <+rickf> wtg
[16:06] <+rickf> good way to end the day
[16:07] <+rickf> this is amusing - all the equities in brokerage A are up, and all those in B are down
[16:08] <+codehead> look at FAZ (3x short financials)
[16:09] <+codehead> 10.39 hit
[16:09] <+codehead> was 115 4 weeks ago
[16:09] <+rickf> yeah
[16:09] <+rickf> unreal
[16:09] <+rickf> 143M shares today, average 33.5
[16:09] <+codehead> leveraged funds are a bit of a scam
[16:10] <+codehead> because of the constant rebalancing
[16:10] <+rickf> hey i like my sds -- kept my total portfolio losses below 10% the past few months - very useful
[16:10] <+codehead> yes but...
[16:10] <+codehead> SDS 2x?
[16:10] <+rickf> yep
[16:11] <+rickf> use purely for capital appreciation, not "long term" yield and such
[16:11] <+codehead> k, what's single leveerage of s&p...
[16:11] <+rickf> the ES/ 1:10 I think ... 62,500
[16:11] <+codehead> i plotted the single leverage again the 2x a couple weeks back
[16:11] <+rickf> or the spy
[16:11] <+rickf> which i dont know
[16:12] <+codehead> hm, there is another that's counterpart to SDS...
[16:12] <+codehead> well, i'll look, but in a nutshell...
[16:12] <+rickf> SSO is 2x long
[16:12] <+codehead> in a nutshell if you plot the 1x and 2x...
[16:12] <+codehead> the 2x great when going up, but on pullback, it actually catches back up with the 1x
[16:13] <+codehead> the reason is rebalancing
[16:13] <+codehead> think about it...
[16:13] <+codehead> a 2x, 3x fund...
[16:13] <+codehead> when it goes up big during the day, you start out 2x, but leverage drops
[16:13] <+codehead> as it moves up
[16:13] <+codehead> they rebalance end of day
[16:13] <+codehead> but buying more
[16:13] <+codehead> by
[16:13] <+codehead> now, on way down...
[16:13] <+codehead> on a bad day...
[16:14] <+codehead> you start out 2x, but as the day wears on, the leverage increases
[16:14] <+codehead> to rebalance, they must lighten
[16:14] <+codehead> so...
[16:14] <+codehead> if you are in something that goes up 10% one day, back down to where it started next day, back up 10%...
[16:15] <+codehead> the fund will eventually go to zero even though the underlying is not really gong anywhere
[16:15] <+codehead> strange but true
[16:15] <+rickf> that logic is beyond my interest in the fund .... i would not be holding it to zero
[16:15] <+codehead> there are 2x short funds that are at a loss for year, even while the underlying is at a loss, and 1x short fund is positive
[16:15] <+rickf> for me it's quite simple strategy-
[16:16] <+rickf> on down days, my long stuff goes down; SDS goes up. on up days, vice-versa. Average variance on my long portfolio with semi-active SDS management is +/-10 pct
[16:17] <+rickf> I add/remove SDS at various points to keep my hedge appropriate, but never have more than200 shares
[16:17] <+rickf> it's worked for me quite well and lets me @ night
[16:17] <+codehead> yes, can be good
[16:18] <+codehead> but good to be aware...
[16:18] <+codehead> ideal for day trades
[16:18] <+codehead> the rebalancing essentially is compound interest *against* you
[16:18] <+rickf> good for position/swing trading too ... but if you buy-hold for a long time, yeah you might get into trouble
[16:18] <+codehead> however
[16:18] <+codehead> yes, you don't want ot hold a downdraft on them, in particular
[16:19] <+codehead> not just because they are 2x
[16:19] <+rickf> remember in DEC when folks screamed the ES went down 15 points on a small gap down ... they forgot it was rebalanced + distributions
[16:19] <+codehead> a good downdraft will be greater than 2x against you, due to rebalancing
[16:19] <+rickf> so clearly there are some folks who don't understand how they work at a variety of levels
[16:20] <+codehead> ok, here...
[16:20] <+codehead> SH is single short, let me make a chart...
[16:21] <+codehead> http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=sds# ... =undefined
[16:21] <+codehead> not, on the up moves, see how SDS pays off, at 2x
[16:21] <+codehead> but look at dips
[16:21] <+codehead> it comes back down to SH
[16:22] <+codehead> you would *think* 2x would have 2x gain for year
[16:22] <+codehead> it doesn't work that way
[16:22] * +rickf agreed
[16:23] <+codehead> wait... one more...
[16:23] <+codehead> http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=sds# ... ompare=sh+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
[16:23] <+codehead> note that SDS at high back in Novemeber
[16:23] <+codehead> but s&p at low in March!
[16:24] <+codehead> so you could have bought SDS in Novemeber and be at a loss in March, even while s&p tanked huge
[16:25] <+codehead> we are sitll down from Nov 1, for instance, in s&p
[16:25] <+codehead> but so is SDS
[16:25] <+rickf> true -- but in my case, i trade SDS via dollar cost averaging in blocks ... so the longterm chart /performance isn't really an issue for me
[16:25] <+rickf> but yes your point is evident
[16:25] <+codehead> anyway, just wanted you to be aware
[16:25] <+codehead> still a very good trading tool
[16:26] <+codehead> but helps if you understand that 2x is 2x leverage, but 2x the downside of s&p
[16:26] <+codehead> anyway, i was surprised when i figured that out, just wanted ot share
[16:26] <+rickf>
[16:27] <+rickf> good research
[16:27] <+rickf> and on that note i am off for the weekend ... have a good few days, see y'all on monday
[16:44] <+jbuch> thanks for sharing codehead.
[16:54] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Archived trade posting chat logs have a new location. They are now stored @ viewforum.php?f=20
Session Close: Thu Apr 09 18:27:21 2009

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