Session Start: Wed Jan 05 09:05:01 2005 Session Ident: #FuturesTrades [09:05] * Now talking in #FuturesTrades [09:05] [NihabaAshi] Password, trade post script, trader profiles and trade journals are posted ONLY at the discussion forum at http://p207.ezboard.com/bthestrategylab [09:05] morn guys [09:08] morn [09:24] gm all [09:24] * szubaark_Away is now known as szubaark [09:24] gm [09:25] Sweet! Gonna be 75 F here today :) [09:26] * FFT_Away is now known as FFT [09:30] heheh..its 28 F here [09:31] we got few reports at 10 AM [09:34] 0,3 Long ES @ 1191 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:36] Good morning and happy new year back to work ! [09:37] hi mispe [09:37] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10655.00 -> large size [09:40] 1,4 #FuturesTrades Info -> 8,2 This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced. [09:41] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 1192 --> + 1 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:41] 0,6 exit stop set YM @ 10665.00 [09:43] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 1191.50 [09:44] 0,4 Shorts NQ @ 1581 [09:46] 0,6 sell stop to enter short NQ @ 1583 [09:47] mistake it's a stop limit [09:48] 0,2 Trailing Stop Hit YM @ 10665.00 --> - 10 [09:48] 0,2 Covered all NQ Short @ 1583 --> 0 [09:54] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10684 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:54] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 1193 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:56] Challenger Job Cut and ISM Non-Mfg @ 10 am. [09:56] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10668.00 -> large size [09:56] 0,2 Covered 1/3 Short YM at 10670 --> + 14 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:56] oops [09:57] 0,4 Shorts NQ @ 1584.5 [09:57] wrong entry post [09:57] 0,2 Covered all ES Short @ 1192.25 --> + 0.75 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:57] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10664.00 -> Add [09:57] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10676 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:57] 0,2 Covered 1/3 Short YM at 10670 --> + 6 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [09:58] 0,2 Covered all NQ Short @ 1582 --> + 2.5 [09:58] 0,6 exit stop moved to breakeven YM @ 10676 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:00] ISM 63.1 [10:00] 0,3 Long ES @ 1192.25 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:00] 61.3 EXPECTED [10:01] >:( [10:01] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10667 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:02] thnx papa. [10:02] Didn't expect this chop :( [10:03] yeah - reports havnt moved it much [10:03] Looking for Breakeven @ 10667.00 if this doesn't move soon. [10:04] 0,2 stop hit YM @ 10676 --> 0 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:04] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 1192.5 --> + 0.25 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:04] me too [10:06] lots of undecision here [10:06] consolidatin day [10:06] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10677 --> - 10 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:06] 0,3 Long YM @ 10678 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:08] 0,2 Covered all ES Short @ 1193.50 --> - 2 [10:08] The Challenger report just came out supposedly good. [10:12] like niha says, just wasnt meant to be [10:12] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10677 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:12] 0,2 Exited all YM Long @ 10674 --> - 4 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:13] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10674 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:14] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10684 --> - 10 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:14] 0,2 Covered all Short YM at 10684 --> - 7 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:14] 10:30 EIA Petroleum Report. [10:14] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10685.00 --> - 38 [10:15] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10681 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:16] 0,3 Long ES @ 1194 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:17] 0,4 Shorts NQ @ 1586.5 [10:18] [10:14] Covered all YM Short @ 10685.00 --> - 38 [10:18] That's a -18 overall x 13 contracts :( [10:18] brutal [10:19] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 1194 --> 0 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:19] 0,2 Covered all NQ Short @ 1586 --> + 0.5 [10:19] we mis-read that one >:( [10:20] It's either a "creeper uptrend" or setting up for a big reversal. [10:20] i think the latter [10:20] Will try to small size it and then add a large position (larger than my prior position). [10:21] Have the EIA Petro reports been moving the market much? [10:21] Not during the holidays which is normal. [10:21] Will be interesting to see what happens soon... [10:21] i agree [10:21] Hopefully a trade signal appears from it. [10:22] so far at least price keeps telling me Up, since the open every cycle had made higher (or =) highs and higher (or =) lows [10:23] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10675.00 -> small size [10:23] until now, lol [10:23] lol [10:27] :( [10:28] 0,4 Shorts NQ @ 1579.5 [10:28] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10665.00 -> large size [10:29] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 1191.25 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:29] That's a ADD [10:30] Will post corrections later. [10:31] 0,3 Long ES @ 1191 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:31] 0,2 Covered all NQ Short @ 1578 --> + 1.5 [10:34] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 1191.75 --> + 0.75 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:37] :) [10:37] Now I can smile [10:38] was think same about u :) [10:38] thinking [10:38] 0,2 Covered all ES Short @ 1189.50 --> + 1.75 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:38] nice going [10:38] i got it short too, but dont like to post after the fact. [10:39] good Shorts Gang [10:39] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10649.00 --> + 16 [10:39] ;) [10:39] I still have that small position @ 10675.00 [10:39] nice niha this chop [10:40] Really long tails on these 3min ES candles. [10:41] Will manually post my exit for the small position. [10:41] 639 target? [10:41] Yep. [10:42] looks good [10:42] That was the target for my very large position but I had to dump it early to get rid of those early losses. [10:43] yeah - i wondered why u dumped the lot [10:44] Niha (& anyone else of course) what do you make of the long lower shadows on the 3min ES chart for the last few candles? [10:44] If I may ask. [10:45] Bobby...minor (weak) support. [10:46] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 1190 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:46] LOL, I was thinking it meant good support b/c the low was fought off. [10:48] 0,3 Long ES @ 89.75 [10:48] Bobby...reason why I see it as "weak support" is because of the volume distribution is in the lower end of that long lower shadow... [10:48] Therefore, its very easy for a stop runner to occur. [10:49] If the volume distributions was more spread out in the length of the long lower shadow...it would be much better support. [10:50] How do you see volume distribution with shorter time frame i.e 1mm in this case ? [10:50] I made two key trade management errors today that caused A LOT of trade problems... [10:50] Will post soon about that. [10:51] YM trying hard to fill in that 3min chart Hidden WRB gap @ 10639.00 [10:52] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10647 --> + 34 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:52] :) [10:52] 1,4 #FuturesTrades Info -> 8,2 This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced. [10:54] Bobby...when I was talking about the volume distribution...I was referring to the relationship between the long lower shadow and the candlestick interval after the long lower shadow. [10:55] Didn't meant the volume in the long lower shadow itself. [10:56] 0,2 Covered 1/3 Short ES at 1189 --> + 1 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [10:56] YM's big Hidden GAP has just filled. [10:58] Covered all of small position @ 10639.00 for a +36.00 [10:59] u make back the loss? [10:59] plus a bit more? :) [10:59] Yes...I'm profitable for the day :) [10:59] U want to explain hidden gap? (If not it's okay :)) [10:59] looks like we may get another drop [10:59] yep [11:01] Here's my big trade management error that got me into a deep hole... [11:02] I go small size in my first trade of the day...I'm very ritual about this. [11:02] Today...I had a discipline problem and didn't stick to the plan... [11:02] I went LARGE size. [11:03] The first trade of the day via a small size is done to help get rid of those butterflies sort'uv speak...helps me get a quick feel for the price action. [11:04] By going Large size in that first trade...it immediately became a stressful trade and I broke more rules. [11:04] 0,2 Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 91 --> + 1.25 [11:04] Had I reduced my size immediately (covered 2/3 for a smaller loss)... [11:05] 0,3 Long ES @ 1191 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [11:05] I would have been in a much better mental game going into that 2nd trade (large size). [11:05] it was good for me to witness how you didnt get rattled as was able to recover the loss [11:06] The second trade...I had some problems with managing my initial stop especially when I did the small size ADD. [11:07] 0,3 Long NQ @ 1580 [11:07] The trade was a disaster and forced me to WAIT for a candlestick reversal signal or similar. [11:07] 0,2 Exited Remainder ES Long @ 92.25 --> + 2.5 [11:07] I went small size as planned in the third trade but then another problem occurred (not my fault)... [11:08] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 69 [11:08] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 1192.25 --> + 1.25 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [11:08] 0,6 exit stop set YM @ 72 [11:08] yikes [11:08] 0,2 Covered YM Short @ 72 --> - 3 [11:08] I was about to do another ADD (large size) when my data vendor went down... [11:08] love those 5 second trades :/ [11:08] who's your vendor? [11:08] 0,2 Exited all NQ Long @ 1581 --> + 1 [11:08] When it came back up...I was able to compare the charts with my broker quotes and decided to chase the ADD... [11:09] ADDED a very large position @ 10665.00 when I should have ADDED @ 10670.00 [11:10] Those missing 5 points x 20 contracts resulting in leaving +100 additional points on the table [11:10] FutureSource and QCharts... [11:10] Both went down... [11:11] I've been having some computer problems all week and can't even get into my own website because of such... [11:11] I remember now. Is it a modem thing? [11:11] Will not make anymore trades for the remainder of the day and try to fix the problems...its too stressful right now. [11:12] [11:04] By going Large size in that first trade...it immediately became a stressful trade and I broke more rules. [11:12] Is your internet line reliable? [11:12] Reliable ? [11:12] Just wondering if it's that instead of your machine. [11:13] Did you break your rules because you've had such a good run lately and got careless? "Invinsibility" thing? [11:13] I broke my rules because I was messing around with some INDEX charts and got caught off guard... [11:14] Decided to "wing" it sort'uv speak and got burnt. [11:15] Just shows you how being "mentaly" prepared everyday is important in this game even for someone with your experience. [11:15] Lately, Ive been getting up HOUR EARLY and my results have improved TREMENDOUSLY. [11:16] Well...whenever I'm not prepare...odds are very high the day either results in a big loss, increased trading stress or more of a fight to become profitable. [11:19] By the way...the trade signal (candlestick reversal signal) that got me out of trouble was what I call a "Double Bearish Shooting Star". [11:20] YM 3min chart had its first Shooting Star (white shooting star) via the interval that closed @ 0953am est. [11:20] Note: My YM charts are the same as the CBOT charts...if your using a data provider like eSignal...they change the intervals to correlate with ES, NQ and ER2 :( [11:21] I see the first shooting star. [11:21] The next Shooting Star (dark shooting star) occurred in the interval that closed @ 1020am est. [11:22] The key is volume... [11:22] Yup 10:21, gravestone doji too, I believe. [11:22] Their was declining volume leading from the White Shooting Star going to the Dark Shooting Star. [11:23] 0,3 Long ES @ 89.75 -> small size [11:23] 3min? lately,ive moved to 5min [11:23] Scratch the doji comment. [11:23] szu...I have both those intervals on my screen. [11:26] looks like we were right about another drop, WBAT [11:30] don't know les, when you guys were discussing that price was trading 89.00 - 90.00, after the 2 WR days i wouldn't expect much movement down from there, we've already got a 6.75pt day in the es, be real surprised if we get much more range today [11:30] yes les. [11:30] looks good! [11:31] Really nice example of MACD divergence ~10:15 on the 3 min ES. [11:31] wbat - yes, but eb has a point about it not really being a trend day, so drop may still be limited [11:31] right easy..today's range should be small. [11:33] yeah, looks like its chopping up now [11:33] good time to stand aside [11:33] a question Niha at 10h20 on YM 3min chart I have a doji + blakc shooting star. Is that what you refer to ? [11:36] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 89.75 --> 0 [11:39] agree wbat, good time to stand aside, let others feed their brokers and try to get some large fries at McD's :) [11:50] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 91.50 -> small size [11:54] 0,2 Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 90.75 --> + 0.75 [12:04] 1,4 #FuturesTrades Info -> 8,2 This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced. [12:05] 0,2 Covered Remainder ES Short @ 89.75 --> + 1.75 [12:05] nice one MrM, threading the needle :) [12:06] yup:) [12:09] break or bounce time [12:09] bounce meanns treble bottom on es 3min [12:10] head fake down then 95 on es... [12:12] well i'm short... [12:12] churns like crazy down here [12:13] churns? [12:13] lotsa trades, little movement [12:13] oh [12:14] where did you get short? [12:14] 1190 [12:14] 10:47 [12:15] aahh [12:15] big stop on that one [12:15] 4pts at first [12:16] your stomach must have been churning too when it came within 2 ticks of your stop, hey :P [12:17] nope [12:17] oh [12:18] stomachs always fine in sim [12:18] iron gut, huh? [12:18] aahh, hehe [12:18] hehe [12:18] duh [12:18] 4pt stops always "sound" good, hell they keep you in alot more trades, that is until you take a few of those 4pt'r stops with real money, then suddenly they don't look like such a good idea :) [12:19] eb - this trade is a system trade - designed for a long spell over most of the trade day [12:19] i'm testing it [12:19] used to wrok very well in days when es had better follow thro [12:20] i know you're testing those les, was just commenting in general on large stops [12:20] i have never used it live, but the guy who invented made a pile [12:20] oh, right [12:20] what's the idea behind the system? [12:20] yeah, in my mind there must be a reason for the size of the stop, not just have a large one for the sake of it [12:21] i'll dig out the url for u joop... hang on [12:21] cheers [12:21] :) [12:21] its called a MAD trade [12:21] aahh [12:21] go on... say it [12:21] okay... [12:21] i'm listening [12:21] is that the state of mind you have to be in to use 3pt stops :P [12:21] I agree with les stops are for protection only you can exit a trade whenever when you see somethings wrong :) [12:23] 0,3 Long YM @ 10648 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [12:23] http://www.adiplock.freeserve.co.uk/presentation2.htm [12:23] thanks [12:23] its called MAD cos Mike A Diplock invented it [12:24] u'll see a set of slide presentations [12:24] start at #8 [12:24] * joop nods [12:24] then #17 [12:24] slide 4... he's spelt "losing" wrong :P [12:24] those are the 2 i use [12:24] makes you wonder... [12:24] okies [12:24] :) [12:24] 0,6 exit stop set YM @ 10649 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [12:25] i've met him - attended his presentations [12:25] hahahah [12:25] having trouble finding slide 8 :P [12:25] i think he's a scientist/ engineer type [12:25] this guy is a genius [12:25] hehe [12:26] can't count or spell :P [12:26] The ER2 has been pretty much a downward arrow since around 10:15. Quite different from the other minis. [12:26] slide 8: [12:26] http://www.adiplock.freeserve.co.uk/slideshow2.htm?9#realslide [12:27] 0,2 Exited all YM Long @ 10650 --> + 2 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [12:27] downward arrow since the open yesterday, even [12:27] how did you find this slide 8??? [12:27] hmm, it says slide 9 [12:28] click on one of those red boxes [12:28] oops sorry - was reading the links - ur on right one [12:29] u should see MAD System #1 - Breakout [12:29] aahh, yes... I see it now [12:29] http://www.adiplock.freeserve.co.uk/slideshow2.htm?18#realslide [12:30] yep [12:30] that will give u MAD system #2 - Reversal [12:30] gotchya [12:30] some of the other slides show Mike's annual profits [12:30] do you know this guy? [12:30] yes [12:31] personally? [12:31] no - just been at some trading events with him [12:31] a few times [12:31] aahh, okay [12:31] i've seen these kinda systems before... I like them... very simple and easy [12:32] they are... but mike said he is not currently trading es with it due to poor follow trhu [12:32] yep [12:32] doesn't seem like the best candidate [12:32] since the increase recently in volatility, i've decided to test it again [12:33] * joop nods [12:33] YM descending triangle breaking out [12:34] yup [12:34] others not following [12:35] oh, spoke too soon [12:35] :) [12:35] here comes es [12:35] go boy [12:35] hehe [12:35] rollercoaster time [12:36] hold on :P [12:36] 0,3 Long ES @ 87.50 -> small size [12:37] breaktime [12:37] cu later [12:38] adios [12:38] :) [12:38] cya later alligator [12:38] will post exit later if i have one [12:38] * les is now known as lesAway [12:39] take care [12:44] 0,2 Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 88.50 --> + 1 [12:58] 0,2 Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 90 --> + 2.5 [13:00] * Awash_afk is now known as Awash [13:00] good afternoon [13:00] ES v-bottom bounce near PDL [13:08] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch [13:11] 0,2 Exited Remainder ES Long @ 91.25 --> + 3.75 [13:11] nice Matrix [13:11] nice matrix [13:11] thanks:) [13:11] very nice catch-the-falling-knife trade MrM, few things in trading more satisfying than calling a strong turn, good job [13:12] 1,4 #FuturesTrades Info -> 8,2 This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced. [13:16] 0,2 Covered all Short ES at 1190.75 --> - 0.75 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [13:21] that would be a kick to take out the globex low, then take out yesterday's lod, then do a sharp V reversal and runup to make a new hod :) [13:22] can't say that 2005 has been boring so far [13:25] looks as if ES wants to test 94.75 [13:28] Awash, how's the prop trading coming along? [13:28] okay, just came home for lunch [13:29] still learning the little peculiar things with stocks [13:29] that would be sure a major readjustment for me to "think" stocks [13:30] sure=such [13:32] When the russell trend, it trends [13:32] yikes szu, wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that [13:33] thats why i dont touch the russell :) [13:34] :) [13:35] amazing, i was almost kidding when i said it would be a kick to make a new hod after the immediately prior price action [13:36] we never looked back after reversing near PDL [13:36] 0,4 Shorts ES @ 94.5 [13:36] nice run up [13:36] i have no down candles on my 5 minute chart [13:36] MrM, when you called that reversal from the bottom you weren't messing around :) [13:37] IM just feelin it today :) [13:41] 0,2 Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 93.5 --> + 1 [13:47] * Awash is now known as Awash_afk [13:51] 0,3 Long YM @ 10680 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [13:53] looking for another leg up [13:54] if we retrace lower im Toast [13:55] here it comes:( [13:55] 0,2 Exited all YM Long @ 10670 --> - 10 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [13:56] will try again [14:01] * NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi [14:01] Anybody see the Double Bearish Shooting Star pattern that appeared again on YM's 3min chart interval ??? [14:01] 0,3 Long YM @ 10668 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:02] 2nd attempt [14:02] 1st Dark Shooting Star closed @ 1:26pm est... [14:02] 2nd Dark Shooting Star closed @ 1:38pm est. [14:03] It's already at a pt2. [14:03] Be back later...personal errands. [14:03] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away [14:10] 0,2 Exited all YM Long @ 10665 --> - 3 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:10] 0,4 Shorts YM @ 10664 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:12] MrM you nailed another turn, hot is hot (can you bottle that stuff) :D [14:12] get me to the craps tables fast lol :) [14:12] hehe [14:17] 0,2 Covered Remainder ES Short @ 91.5 --> + 3 [14:17] Mr matrix u Hot today [14:17] nice trading matrix [14:17] please keep my ego in check...:) na j/k keep it comin....:) [14:21] this is amazing 2 way action [14:24] 0,6 exit stop set YM @ 10663 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:24] 1,4 #FuturesTrades Info -> 8,2 This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced. [14:29] 0,2 Covered all YM Short @ 10656 --> + 8 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:31] 0,3 Long YM @ 10658 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:39] some guy on tv just said market could go up or down in 2005...hmmm smart guy [14:39] * lesAway is now known as les [14:39] not really... [14:40] i predict it could also go sideways [14:40] thats profound [14:40] but les, is that sideways with an up or down bias :D [14:40] think they'll now offer me a fat salary? [14:41] either, eb [14:41] thought you were gonna say a "sideways bias" :) [14:41] dont be silly [14:41] bias is important [14:42] sideays is like fltlinig [14:42] flatlining [14:42] either way, u dead [14:43] 0,2 Exited all YM Long @ 10648 --> - 10 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:43] 0,3 Long ES @ 90.5 -> small size [14:45] 0,3 Long YM @ 10653 4,0 ŤŤ paper ťť [14:53] 0,2 Exited all ES Long @ 90.75 --> + 0.25 [14:54] im looking for test of the Highs [14:55] it could go either way [14:55] agree, market trying real hard to turn up here, but quite a struggle [14:55] yep [14:55] better buy at 88 range es [14:56] going nowhere looks like to me [14:57] heh, that's the sideways that les was talking about, market's just practicing for the rest of the year :) [14:57]