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#FuturesTrades December 14th Thursday 2006 Trade Log

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Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

 

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ER2 EuroFX EC
+15.50 +0.0000
$1,550.00 $0.00

Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Blotter

Today was a very good trading day as expected after yesterday's poor performance (stressful trading).

I really don't have anything of value to add due to being mentally drained and will go to bed early tonight.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of December...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

Session Start: Thu Dec 14 09:18:24 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here.09:18
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm all...hope today is better than yesterday...
<Apex82> Russel morning man09:19
<RussellDaytrade> i'll be! you are full of surprises. nice to see you!
<Apex82> so can we talk about analysis in this room?09:20
or is this strictly posting trades?
<RussellDaytrade> alright, easy does it, just do what comes natural.

both.
<Apex82> ok ya market has been tought the past few days
<NihabaAshi> Hi Apex82...you can talk about trading in this room09:21
<RussellDaytrade> we've had what seemed to me to be bear-market-type spikes up the [ast week.
<Apex82> so many dynamics pointing for a breakout but we got slammed with the dating of option expiry fed and employment so close together so odds are we have another low volume day
<PapaJon> gm all09:22
<NihabaAshi> We try hard to leave "off-topic or non-market" discussions to private message.
<Apex82> insti's are not active yet a good barometer is afternoon activity
<NihabaAshi> You can private message anyone via double clicking on their name.
<Apex82> ok thanks
so im currently neutral although historically any volatility breakout is usually coincides with a move to the downside09:23
and we are way overdue for a vol breakout
<szubaark-away> gm emini
<eminitrader> that was fast...morn szu
hope we have a better day today to trade09:24
<Apex82> scalping market again I am afreaid to say...
<szubaark-away> Hi Apex, how long uve been trading?
<eminitrader> lets hope we get some nice swings
<Apex82> any move below 791-792 may bring some action in
but right now its just moving from the next level of stops to another09:25
<NihabaAshi> Friday is Quadruple Witching...
<Apex82> no follow through
<NihabaAshi> Markets tend to be range bound on Thurs and Fri of a Quad Week.
<Apex82> ya
tuesday and wednesday preceding are some of the best volatiliy days of the month09:26
<NihabaAshi> Simply, I'm going to try to hit it hard the first hour of trading and then will cut back my position size dramatically for the remainder of the trading day.
<Apex82> ya i am taking the same approach
<RussellDaytrade> lots of times by now, especially with the moves thus far this week, most of the gyrations regarding ex have occurred, barring any surprise news, etc.
<Apex82> I am keeping trade size small due to the conflicting factors and low volume09:27
<Brutus> Hi Apex
<Apex82> morning brutus
off the open first trade will be buying 795.80 is new highs are not made09:28
<Brutus> Today Quad witching?
<PapaJon> tomorrow brutus
<Brutus> K thanks09:29
<PapaJon> yw
   
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<jperl> ER2 VWAP data:

yesterday: 796.68

1 week: 798.90

1 month: 797.28

1 year: 736.19\09:30
<pat255> ty jp
<jperl> yw
<szubaark-away>  Buys NQ @ 1811.25 «« paper »»
<Apex82> buying 796.6009:31
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 798.70 -> large size
O
I'm bullish but don't know for how long.
<pat255> thks niha09:32
<NihabaAshi> I'm expecting this morning price action to be just "continuation price action" in reaction to the price action from yesterday since 3:15pm est.
<Apex82> large inverted H&S should provide good support09:33

on er2

buying 797.20
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 798.20 --> - 0.5 09:34
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 798.20
<RussellDaytrade> my system generated charts from IB have a scale with price lows of 796 area...09:35
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 797.70 --> + 0.5 09:36
<szubaark-away>  Exited all Long NQ at 1808.75 --> - 2.5 «« paper »»
<Apex82> out ER2
.05 profit
<RussellDaytrade> sometimes, like yesterday, they magically seem to migrate near those areas, go fugure, perhaps coincidence.
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1426
<szubaark-away>  Shorts NQ @ 1808.75 -> Add «« paper »»
<Apex82> holding runners
breakeve nstop
out profit 2
1pt
last unit breakeven holding to retetest HOD fat chance...09:37
<szubaark-away>  Covered all Short NQ at 1811.75 --> - 3.5 «« paper »» 09:38
<Apex82> got filled on the ET.... not bad
<szubaark-away>  Buys NQ @ 1811.75 «« paper »»
<Apex82> out all units 2 pts09:39
bought low tick...
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 798.90 --> - 0.7

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 798.90
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1428 --> + 2 09:40
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 799.20 -> Add

I'm a little too heavy on the Long...will dump some early to reduce my risk exposure.09:41

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 800.30 --> + 1.1
<pat12> geez connection problems ..09:42
<RussellDaytrade> seems to me this area, 800-801 may be an approximate res point.
<NihabaAshi> A 800.50 will give me my profit target for the day.
<pat12> geez anyone having IB quotes prob?09:43
<RussellDaytrade> not here pat
<pat12> kty
<RussellDaytrade> you got a trade on?
<pat12> nope :)
<RussellDaytrade> got a backup quote sourse?
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1428 --> + 2 09:44
<pat12> no...:(
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 800.60 --> + 1.7

Holding a few contracts
<RussellDaytrade> if this is a high, target down of 4.5 in 36 minutes.09:45
<Apex82> any move above 804 could cause a nice big mvove to the upside exhibiting hppd behaviror

buying 798.40

add on 797.50
<eminitrader> hppd ?
<Apex82> high probabiliy profit day basically what you call a trending day09:46
<les>  Long ER2 @ 800.2
<pat12> vn emini...missed it
<eminitrader> k thx
<Apex82> shallw pullbacks cutting rhough all SR levels
<eminitrader> thx pat
<Brutus> 801.3 yest HOD09:47
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 801.00 --> + 2.1 09:48
Holding 1 contract
<Apex82> market is impusling to the upside09:49
<szubaark-away>  Exited all Long NQ at 1816.75 --> + 5 «« paper »»
<Apex82> coming off a DB
<NihabaAshi> ER2 currently in a s/r zone...
Not sure if it has the strength to punch upwards through it.
<Apex82> i Think we head for 807 area today09:50

needs to take a break here or at 802.50 area
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 801.1 --> + 0.9 09:51
<pat12> looks like freight train today...
<Apex82> 802.50-803.50 neXT R zone
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1430.50 --> + 4.5 09:52
<Apex82> should get a pullback there or a consolidatin
nice volume !
<pat12> vn
<szubaark-away> nice emini09:53
<eminitrader> thx szu ...u too
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 802.3 09:54
<Apex82> ok lower part of zone hit

should get a pullback or consolidation

buying 800 add on 799.20 if new highs are not made09:55
<les>  Long ER2 @ 802.3
<Apex82> ok main part of zone hit09:56
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 803.30 --> + 4.4
<szubaark-away>  Go Niha!
<pat12> gl well done ...
<NihabaAshi> Thanks...I usually have a good trading day after a poor day of trading.09:57
<szubaark-away> Parabolic upmove.
<les>  exit stop set ER2 @ 802.4
<pat12> S are burned forever...09:58
<NihabaAshi> I'm going to switch over to simulator trading because I've waited a long time for a parabolic price movement like this to trade...testing something new.
<Apex82> unreal move...
<szubaark-away> Brutus where is your Stop?09:59
<Apex82> buying 803.6010:00
add on 802.70
below that next S zone in the 801.50 area10:02
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 804.30 -> small size «« simulator »»

1 contract only10:03
<szubaark-away> this day could be done after such quick, sudden upmove. Killer Chop rest of day?10:04
<Brutus>  Covered ER2 Short @ 804.8 --> - 2.5
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 805.30 --> - 1 «« simulator »»
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 805.30 «« simulator »»
<Apex82> could be bu t market showing great momemntum and is making up for lost time
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 803.8
<Apex82> missed entry by 3 ticks10:05

whos front running me

heh
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 807.10 --> + 1.8 «« simulator »» 10:06
She's a steamer...be careful.
[10:04] <szubaark-away> this day could be done after such quick, sudden upmove. Killer Chop rest of day?10:07
<szubaark-away> Volatility slowly dropping now.
<NihabaAshi> szu...I think so.
If there's more volatility to the upside after 1030am est...I'll be very surprise.10:08
Not too sure about volatility to the downside...depends upon what's driving this thing upwards.
<szubaark-away> Niha how u break down your Volatility sessions? (innings)
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 806.2
<Apex82> looks like we are in a wave 3

and will be trading as such

buying 80510:09
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 805.8 --> + 3.5
<pat12> etg guys les..
<szubaark-away> go les
<les> thx guys

i dont need that xmas food parcel now
<NihabaAshi> :)10:10
<PapaJon> well. when you get the one i sent ya.. send it back please
<les> no - u ate moste of it before ya sent it10:11
<pat12> lol
<PapaJon> hehe
wife makes the best cookies... couldnt resist
<NihabaAshi> Volatility declining...expecting a volatility spike soon...hopefully in the direction of whatever trade your in :)
<Brutus> This could retrace most of the move10:12
<RussellDaytrade> these are the bear-market type spikes i have refered to! coming out of the blue, that makes about five in the past week.
<Apex82> profit 1 hit and filled on er\
buying 80510:13
<RussellDaytrade> down target 803, likely goes lower than that if/when it gets going
<NihabaAshi> We are in a volatility spike right now...it was small in comparison to what I was expecting.10:14
<Apex82> prime support in this area

down to 804

adding on down there

profit 1 hit and filled again on second buy10:15

buying again at 804.40-.1010:16
<jperl> ER2 POC 805.3210:17
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 805.20 -> small size «« simulator »»
<Apex82> taking out 75% here10:18
holding small piece addin on at 804.20 with 7 tick stop10:19
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)10:20
<Apex82> market rolling over quicker then expected
could be HOD we need at least a retest though
<NihabaAshi> Volatility declining again...expecting another volatility spike here soon.

Covered ER2 Short @ 804.90 --> + 0.3 «« simulator »» 10:21
<jperl> VWAP= 802.84, POC= 805.3010:22
we are in that fuzzy region between POC and VWAP
<Apex82> POC?
<jperl> Point of Control= price where the volume is maximum for the day10:23
<Apex82> next major S zone for er2 at 803 even10:24
<Brutus>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 804.5 --> + 1.7
<Apex82> still trading in nice support here

would be surprised to see an assualt at highs again from here10:25

wouldnt be

left shoulder now becomes resis in the 805.50- 806 area
<Brutus>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 804.4 --> + 1.8 10:26
At the end of that move I was down $2.3k10:27
Now only dowm $300
<PapaJon> nice comeback brut10:28
<Brutus> Not good
<pat12> vn brutus..
<Apex82> jesus brut
no stops!?
<Brutus> YEs first was a stop

Second a revenge trade
<Apex82> how many contracts ya trading
<Brutus>  Third was a well thought ou trade10:29

12 on the last
<Apex82> oh ok
traded more on revenge?
<Brutus> No third was a high prob setup. I had to back it10:30

I think HOD is in10:31
<Apex82> careful on shorts here it wil either be an easy homerun or you get spiked10:34
<NihabaAshi> The Natural Gap report at 1030am est produce the last volatility spike...price action currently trying hard to retrace it.10:36
<Brutus> Im looking for follow through tomorrow or Monday HOD is in, imo
NQ new HOD will ES follow?10:38
<Apex82> er2 lookng like it wants to assault highs again

coming out of 704 S zone
<RussellDaytrade> shorted the nq a couple of time on the rise, covered both for samll losses, (and glad i did so reasonably quickly...look at nq now10:39
<Apex82> probalby pullback here

in the 805.50 area
<RussellDaytrade> er won't follow it much more, i think
<Apex82> pulling back right at area10:40

if anything we enter a trading range
<RussellDaytrade> er going to new lower level, 802 area?10:43
<Brutus> Expecting low in the pullback by 11:30
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 803.2610:47
* jperl doesn't trade here10:48
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead10:55
<szubaark-away> [10:04] > this day could be done after such quick, sudden upmove. Killer Chop rest of day?11:02
<Apex82> entered trading range as expected
<szubaark-away> its gonna be a Long rest of the day LOL
<pat12> correct szu...this is the one to avoid...11:03
* les is now known as lesAway11:04
<szubaark-away> time to do something ELSE
<jperl> price action wandering around in no-mans land between VWAP and POC....11:16

so here are this mornings trades...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-12-14/JP ERL_016.png11:17
<RussellDaytrade> it seems anti-climatic, or is that post-climatic11:20
<Brutus> Shorts are licking their wounds11:23
<RussellDaytrade> hear that
<Brutus> That type of move only occurs about 3 times a year, well past year11:24
<RussellDaytrade> that was a good high-probability trade off the highs...it's occured 5 times in the past week!...
<Brutus> Bad habbits11:25
<RussellDaytrade> i am doing some work on HOD/LOD %'s in the morning sessions, thus far from the little data i have reviewed, there is a 57.14% prob that was also the high of day...11:26
<Brutus> I wanted to go long, knew the best trade was long near the start, but if I miss the start, I look for shorting oppertunities which is all wrong :(11:28
<RussellDaytrade> now, i think it can be further argued that if the move was soooo extended, that the odds increase substantially that its a HOD, ie(tougher/higher threshold to surmount, etc), making it a high prob trade.
<Brutus> Correct, add time frame etc11:29
<RussellDaytrade> and even if it isn't the ultimate HOD, still high odds of a giveback.11:30
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:32
<Apex82> 3 trades on the day for me11:35
3,700 net11:36
had a TED yesterday so working my way out of it
<RussellDaytrade> all longs? ted?
<Apex82> all longs11:37
<Brutus> TED :) VN Apex
<Apex82> TED= temporary equity dip
I use that because i trade with an edge
no losses in my account
hehe
commodity portfolio long Platinum, coffee, wheat and oats11:39
<Brutus> With the market holding up so well - New Highs in the pm ?
<Apex82> nice chance for it to retest highs go a few points higher then double top
<RussellDaytrade> well, in the past week, all these moves have resolved to the downside, with approx givebacks ranging from half to 3/4 of a day or so.11:40
<Brutus> ASX made new highs today and asia was up strong as well
<jperl> high of day stats for ER2 last 100 days....11:41

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-12-14/JP ERL_018.png

HOD occurs by 10:00 EST
<Brutus> Excellent JP never thought of it like that11:42
<RussellDaytrade> may take it a while, days?? to take back all the move, but still likely it retraces some more today, perhaps 801 er, 1825 or lower nq.11:43
<jperl> here are stats for Low of Day for last 100 days...11:44
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-12-14/JP ERL_019.png
<Brutus> eminitrader do you trade channels in the ES?11:45
<jperl> peaks around 10 and 11 EST
<RussellDaytrade> jp, will you provide some clarity on interpreting chart data?
<jperl> each bar represents number of times HOD or LOD occured at those times11:46
in the last 100 trading days
<RussellDaytrade> i see, the lower #'s are times of day, ie, 10am, 11 am, and so on?
<jperl> yes11:47
in between bars are on the half hour
<pat12> c u all later ty alll ...back to office
<RussellDaytrade> what about the 15 thru 17 #'s?11:48
<jperl> bars are very small or zero
<RussellDaytrade> do htose represent after hours sessions?11:49
<jperl> yes....I think so
<Brutus> THe LOD stats is saying that in an uptrending market high prob of a LOD turn at 11 to 11:30
OR before 10:3011:50
<jperl> LOD has peak at 10 and then 11
<Brutus> But 10:30 to 11:00 leave it alone right?
<jperl> yes
<RussellDaytrade> well, there is an aspect of it that i don't see represented... if its for 100 days, shouldn't the bars add up to near 100 in total?11:51
<jperl> good question
<Apex82> Max pain anaylsis is favoring a move to the downside11:52
<Brutus> Owe you one JP :)11:53
<RussellDaytrade> you got a LOD chart similar?
<jperl> I posted it RD11:54

but I need to check what the meaning of the numbers along right side represent
<RussellDaytrade> my work, (preliminary) covering now the past 112 days, says 62.5% prob of LOM=LOD, i have defined LOM(low of morning) as prior to 11:45.11:55
ok, thx, will look back for it.
i expect that the values will reflect differently during differing market phases, those values occured during a rising market.11:58
<jperl> of course11:59

ah I see the problem with the count....12:00

on of the spinners on the stats page allows you to set number of days...12:01
<Brutus> Does anybody have a chart for the range of ES, NQ, ER2 ?
<jperl> to any value you want. I set it to 100,, but there were only 68 days in the data

so the data shown is for 68 days12:02
<RussellDaytrade> what are you using to generate these charts and stats jp? seems a lot easier than the data inputting and spreadsheet work i am doing.
<jperl> ensignsoftware
<RussellDaytrade> if you can also isolate specific periods within, say, bear or bull phases, it may give yet anotrher level of insight, in the even that hte trading dynamics alter.12:04
  
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<jperl> how about day of the week?12:07

today is thursday....

so here are stats for the previous 13 thursdays....
<RussellDaytrade> the manner in which i am interpreting my work, is that, as the day increases, so does the prob of a LOD or HOD, for example, in the next period, the midday session, i get a 10.6%. i then add that to the earleir period of 57%, for a cummulative total. any htoughts on whether i am approaching/interpreting this accurately, ie, cummulating the %'s?12:09
<jperl> drats...server is down
<RussellDaytrade> i am primarily intrerested in the morning sessions, but think there's value in the rest of the days stats.12:10
<yo> hello all12:12
<Apex82> what up12:28
<Brutus> Friday 0830/1330 Nov CPI +0.2% -0.5%12:33

0830/1330 Nov CPI, ex-food and energy +0.2% +0.1%
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:44
<NihabaAshi> I take my hat off to those trading this low volatility price action since 11am est and have been making money.12:53

I'm staying clear of it...tight pullbacks are always too tough for me to trade.12:54

However, I'm sure if I was using a "continuous tick chart" used by scalpers...this price action is no biggie.12:55
<Brutus> No trades posted since 11am Niha
Do the others who do not post dont trade as well?12:56
<RussellDaytrade> i think direction is more downside, an inverse to late yestardays premise of, "lows=been there, done that", todays version, highs=been there done that, so, some more down yet12:57
<NihabaAshi> Some in here trade other markets and are logged in here to have their own personal log just in case in their review there's something of value been said.12:58
A few in here are "exempt" from posting but only I know whom they are.
Those not exempt...can continue not participating "UNTIL" someone sends me a complaint message about such.12:59
<Brutus> Volume has gone dead, nobody left to go long?13:02
<NihabaAshi> Brutus, sometime next year (late next year) I'm going to make it a "REQUIREMENT" that either blotters of P/L statements or an image of the chart setup used for the day to be posted.13:07
Some in here already post their blotters elsewhere and all they need to do is post a link to it.13:08
<Brutus> Yes agree

1300 breakout
<NihabaAshi> However, I won't do this next year until I've eliminated the current requirments to get in #FuturesTrades such as the questionairre and ezboard registration.
I don't care if its real money or simulator...13:09
<Brutus> I would like to see everyone contribute
<NihabaAshi> I just feel that we should be documenting our trading day via what we were looking at on our screens on any particular day and what the results were for that particular day in question.13:10
I do a lot of Camtasia video recordings and I now have a 4 year accumulation video database of every one of my trading days going back 4 years...13:11
<RussellDaytrade> i guess this is what htye call, gettin jiggy.
<NihabaAshi> Except for a few days of technical problems with my ISP, computer, data vendors.
Actually, more than a few days of problematic days :(13:12
<Brutus> Not much follow through on the large block orders, looking weak
<RussellDaytrade> you just activate it while trading/placing trades, or does it run continuously?
<NihabaAshi> I turn it on around 9:25pm est and turn it off around 4:25pm est13:13

Meant 9:25am
<Brutus> I take 15s screen snaps. automatically does it and dates and time stamps the file with snagit
<RussellDaytrade> does that use up a lot of hd space?13:14
<Brutus> saves hd space compared to camstasia
and easier to jump to an exact time
<NihabaAshi> Yes but only temporarily because at the end of the week I transfer it all to DVD discs.

Each day for me is about 500mb.

Somedays more and some days less.13:15
<Brutus> Also my pc could not handle the load, you would need a top end desktop right?
<RussellDaytrade> sounds like a great tool, play back all the best and worst, and say, 'do this', and 'don't do this'!
<Brutus> But rt recordings are great for spotting and reviewing program buys13:16
The advantage with snaps RD is that I can call up any time to 15s in a few clicks, assuming your charts and T&S show the information you want13:17
<RussellDaytrade> seems like a good mehtod for documenting the actual trading activity, also, in the event of a trade dispute with broker.13:20
<Brutus> What is the best strategy to trade a quadruple witching day, some dont trade it. Any insight?
<Apex82> alright I dont want to get kicked off so here is my statement for today on 1 of my accounts so todays total is double that. Trying out a different broker and execution13:21

http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o117/ apex_82/statement121406.jpg13:22
<NihabaAshi> Brutus, usually, Thurs and Fri are the worst trading days's of the week of a Quadruple Week.
However, this more parabolic price action smashed that "usual" price action :)13:23
<Brutus> Worst as in how? unexpected moves like today?
<NihabaAshi> Simply, best strategy may be to take a low profile...cherry pick more...lower the size during the slow downs et cetera.13:24
<RussellDaytrade> my particular brand of thinking is something like this... i expect the market to swing fairly agressively prior to the ex, say a week or so prior, that essentially whacks both the longs (price comes down) and the shorts (price goes up) that thought they had it in the bag, and basically the brokers churn out hummungous profits, witness GS htis Q, etc.
<NihabaAshi> Brutus, what I meant by worst in that we have less follow-through to our profit targets or less opportunities via the trading plan...on Thurs and Fri.13:25
<Brutus> Like the 112706 to today RD?
<NihabaAshi> This morning price action was a gift...don't get too many like that.13:26
<RussellDaytrade> the main tenet in my premise is that of a net 'neutralizing' effect on the entire net positions outstanding going into the ex...

similar in effect to the concept i wrote about yesterday, of market 'balancing'.
<Brutus> Gift for some :)
<RussellDaytrade> yeah Brut, something like that, ie, reasonable close to the ex, if the market is strong, and longs think they are golden, it gets whacked. then, if new shorts think they have it made, market gets them too, and usually the swings occur with enough 'lead time' to allow both groups to have their positions 'challenged'...13:31

probably somehting akin to Apex's max pain index, expiration style.13:32

at this point and by htis point in time, usually, i htink that most of the 'work' has already occured, evn as trading volumes may rise some today and tomorrow13:38
<Brutus> DT?13:39
<RussellDaytrade> nq's got some to giveback

needs a brisk move below lows of congestion to induce a spate of selling.13:41

if breaks lows, may take it to near 1820 range13:42
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 803.5 «« paper »»
<eminitrader> Es sld break 1433 to chane this uptrend
<Brutus> paper mode on :)
Covered ER2 Short @ 803.3 --> + 0.2 «« paper »» 13:44
No volume
<Apex82> es in prime spot13:45

for DT

trying to hold
<Brutus> Yes not much support
<RussellDaytrade> rallies, as measured visually, from lows to highs, are starting to 'lay-down', ie, progressively lower inclines of their trendlines up.13:47
<Brutus> I am usualy early on my trades, but I find if I do paper trades the best ones sometimes present themselves.
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1436.25 13:49
<Brutus> Im watching the 12:20 to 1340 trend channel if it breaks we shall see.13:52
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)13:56
<Apex82> ES definately wants to run those stops now
above the market13:57
nice trade emini
a little to risky for me
<eminitrader> thx apex ...just went with the trend13:58
<Apex82> seems like we are presently in wave 3
on ES
<eminitrader> looks like ...but wld be nice if NQ gets new highs13:59
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 803.40 -> small size «« simulator »»
<Apex82> if that is true then we would see a move minimum up to 1441.50 before gettng wave 4 correction
<eminitrader> looks like NQ is holding the ES ...hope it doesnt pull it down14:00
<RussellDaytrade> er is going to have to pull down nq, nq doesn't want to come down on its own, thus fart.
<Apex82> i dont think its straight up though
<RussellDaytrade> far, far!
<Apex82> on lower time frame ES just completed a perfect wave 514:01
so near term a correction is imminent
may trade to 1440 first14:02
<eminitrader> brek of 26 and ES cld see heaving sells come in
<Apex82> A nice sell off setting up14:03
<eminitrader> 26 = 1336
<Apex82> so much confluence in the 1440-1450 area
i mean 135-1440 area
1434
<eminitrader> if this sell pressure take it down to 1333 and that breaks then that wld confirm a change in trend for me14:04

looks like 1336 holding for now
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 803.70 --> + 0.3 «« simulator »» 14:05
<eminitrader> till then i'm a BULL :)

NQ screwing around with my ES set-up :(14:06
<Apex82> you mean 1433 right?14:07
<eminitrader> oops ! u r right
<Apex82> you trade with limits emini?
limit orders
<eminitrader> all the time well...99.98%14:08
<Apex82> how do you deal with the fills?
you always gotta give a tick in and out from your projected entry and exit
<eminitrader> surprisingly ...my limits help me most of the time ...cause i have limit exits for my t1 and t214:09

there r times when i buy at the sell tick before a reversal and vice versa14:10
<Brutus> Do you watch DOM and T&S for that EMT?14:11
<Apex82> emini14:12

you know and i both know if we trade the same
<eminitrader> DOM ???? t & s yes ...only when deciding piont of entry after a set-up confirmation ...dont use it after the entry
<Apex82> that we always get in on the low and sell the exact high tick most of the time

so on ES i always have to place my exit and entry a tick early

or else i wont get filled
<Brutus> DOM depth of market - level 214:13
<Apex82> you must go for more then a point or 2

to allow for that slippage

but that of course brings your percent profitable down
<eminitrader> well wont happen all the time ...but does happen to me..guess ur volumes r very high compared to mine :)
<Apex82> i only trade 50 lots14:14

thats noting
<eminitrader> no B i dont follw DOM
<Apex82> even if Itraded 1 contract I still couldnt get filled

are you saying you get filled on ET on the ES?
<eminitrader> see my largest size is 20
normal trading is betn 5 and 1014:15
yep happens quite frequently14:16
<Apex82> your shitting me

how the hell do you get filled on the extreme ticks on the ES with limit orders

i have a dirrect connection to the exhange that i pay over 1500 a month for and a freakn T1
<eminitrader> true ...like for my ti i have a partial limit @ 1437.75 ..today14:17
ti = target 1
<Apex82> what about entries
<eminitrader> will let u know if i get filled if it tests 1437.75 w/0 breaking it14:18
<Apex82> ya but you have done lots of trades do you get filled on extremes on entires only exits?
<eminitrader> same with entries ...use t&s to help me ..
again doesn't happen all the time14:19
<Apex82> tell me next time it happens14:20
<eminitrader> if i cant get in or out at that price , i immediatly change it to the low +1 or high +1 tick to get in or out14:21
<Apex82> whats your usual profit target
<eminitrader> avg 2-3 pts / trade and 4-5 pts per day14:22
<Apex82> alrigt so you looking for big swings

you been having a rough time lately?

past week
<eminitrader> well initial swing of min 6-7 pts wild give me good set-ups14:23
<Apex82> ya how come you dont like the ER
<eminitrader> like i mentioned ---yesterday was my toughest trading day in all of 2006 ...ended in the black ..but trading wise14:24
no particular reason ...been with the ES past 5 yrs ..14:25
<Apex82> so your saying you havent lost money 1 day the whole year?
<eminitrader> wish that were true :)))14:26
nohavent had a losing month since feb this yr and had 2 losing wks
<Apex_82> eminitrader14:33
<eminitrader> very much here
<Apex_82> I lost connection
<eminitrader> k
<Apex_82> but you were saying that yesterday was tough yet you were profitable
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1437.75 --> + 1.5
<Apex_82> run them stops14:34
<eminitrader> well it broke the high ..here apex
<Apex_82> there it goes
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1439 --> + 2.75 14:35
<Apex_82> look at divergence to er

crazy
<eminitrader> apex actaually here i got filled @ 39 befor the 39.25 tick14:36
<Brutus> ES and NQ are ahving much better swings these days
<NihabaAshi> No volatility in ER2 in comparison to the other Eminis...it should catch up soon or do a volatility spike downwards.
<Brutus> 4k bid on the ES14:37

Fake bid watch out14:38
<eminitrader> should'nt matter in a strong tren B
<RussellDaytrade> that false size to create appearance of support
<Brutus> Maybe RD
Time will tell :)14:39
<RussellDaytrade> yes, see similar action in stocks many times that usually coincide with zeniths and nadirs in price action. i viwe it as the market being bullied14:40
<Apex_82> 1441.50 here we go14:41
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 804.1 «« paper »» 14:42
<eminitrader> thats my t3 apex 41.25 ..
<Apex_82> it needs some more volume to make it14:43
<Brutus>  Covered ER2 Short @ 804.3 --> - 0.2 «« paper »» 14:44
<eminitrader> looks like all shorts were stopped out this am ...need large %age of genuine buyers ...hard to find @ these levels..
<Apex_82> If er can get some more momentup to the uspde14:52
will be coming off DB
and should minimum retest the highs14:53
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1438.25 --> + 2 15:01
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:02
<RussellDaytrade> well, the er is doing it's part today to rein in the enthusiam, no other takers, it appears.15:05
<lesAway>  Long ER2 @ 803.5 15:06
<Apex_82> this volume is unreal15:10

only volume is when they run the stops above or below the market

this has go to be the worst trading conditions i have seen in a long time
  
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<eminitrader> true ..but certainly better than yest. could read the mrkt flow today ...at least for me on the ES ..yest. mrkt flow ... was lost15:13
well..done for the day ..bye all15:14
<Apex_82> agreed15:15

emini
<lesAway>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 803.9 --> + 0.4
<Apex_82> yesterday was just ridicoulous

today the market is at least exhibit strucutre

take it easy
<lesAway> a quickie to end the day :)
cya all tomorrow
* lesAway is now known as les15:16
<RussellDaytrade> another leg down nq?15:19
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 803.90 -> small size «« simulator »» 15:20

I think the talk of the town tonight with "investors" will be the Dow Hits Record High.15:31
<Chilly> we've got CPI report pre-open .. will inflation guage be a neutral event or a market mover15:39
we'll see .. gn folks15:40
<RussellDaytrade> since the price of gas has come off, it'll get spun as a positive.15:44
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 804.20 --> + 0.3 «« simulator »»
<RussellDaytrade> a portion of that may be wahts going on today.
<Apex_82> good day today
boring
but some decent setups15:45
<NihabaAshi> Anybody in here doing any Forex trading on the side ?15:49
<GoodMood> just went GBPCAD short15:50
<RussellDaytrade> no, why, you see something?
<NihabaAshi> Trying to find out if someone is trading or watching UsdCad.
Looking for their short term opinion about it.15:51
<GoodMood> what's your opinion about USDCAD ?
<Apex_82> Im long CD
canadian
<NihabaAshi> I've been Short in it since the upper 1.50's for several years.
<Apex_82> im out
<GoodMood> oh
<Apex_82> talk to ya guys tomorrow
you may want to view my post on eliete trade15:52
<RussellDaytrade> so long Apex
<Apex_82> on eurusd
<NihabaAshi> It looks like its trying to build a bottom after retracing back up over 1.15
<Apex_82> http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php ?s=&threadid=81945
look at that call...
just missed
<NihabaAshi> Thanks Apex
<Apex_82> and here is my oil call15:53
one of the best trades I have ever called
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php ?s=&threadid=80994
im long Canadian for a longer term play15:54
if it falls a bit more I will get out and wait for reentry
lol this market is just ridicolous15:56
look at mini russ
<RussellDaytrade> they had to hit he er to get the nq to follow, about time

beggining to think i was losing my touch.15:57
<Apex_82> i been bored all day
and they decide to move it in the last 5 minutes
assholes15:58
selling 802.30
smmall size on er
market is acting crazy
and low volume
<RussellDaytrade> if a guy can gut it out for those longer periods, there's good opportunities.
<Apex_82> see ya guys tomorrow15:59
<NihabaAshi> I'm outta here too...bye all.16:06
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:14
* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Dec 14 16:48:40 200616:48
  

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