#FuturesTrades December 12th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log
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ER2 EuroFX EC +12.30 +0.0000 $1,230.00 $0.00 FOMC Announcement (interest rates)
The volatility wasn't there to correlate with the parabolic price movement after the FOMC announcement.
This is very untypical of for a December reaction along with the prior trading days of December having problematic volatility.
Other than that...keep a close eye on a reversal day the next few trading days even though Friday is a Quadruple Witching day.
In other words, the Mon, Tues or Weds are usually the best trading days of a week of Quadruple Witching while other days of the week tend to be more problematic...
We'll know by the close on Friday.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of December...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Tue Dec 12 09:29:09 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:29 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <PapaJon> gm all 09:30 <pat255> gm all.... 09:31 <eminitrader> morn all and good trading <szubaark> gm 09:32 <PapaJon> no vix data here.. vxn is fine tho 09:35 others have vix data? <asuni> no vix data here <PapaJon> asuni.. what data provider u use? 09:37 <pat255> L 800 er <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 800.30 -> large size <jperl> ER2 VWAP data: 09:38 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1814 «« paper »» <jperl> yesterday: 800.86 09:39 1 week: 800.92 1 month: 788.61 1 year: 736.78 <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1814 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 801.40 --> + 1.1 09:40 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1814 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:42 :(( <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:44 <NihabaAshi> Its trying hard to shake me out of my remainders :( Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 800.30 --> 0 09:45 :( Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <asuni> [09:37] <PapaJon> asuni.. what data provider u use? 09:46 tradestation sorry, i didn't see ur question till now <PapaJon> no biggie esignalhere.. and btw.. vix is back now <asuni> same here 09:47 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1816.50 «« paper »» 09:49 <PapaJon> prolly exchange issue <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 801.20 -> small size 09:51 3 contracts only Exited all ER2 Long @ 801.50 --> + 0.3 09:53 Ooops... Exited all ER2 Long @ 800.50 --> - 0.7 09:54 <szubaark> just Chop before FOMC <les> Shorts ER2 @ 800 damn slippage <ItalianSharp> szu: yes, i am expecting this kinda crap to go on till 2.15pm <eminitrader> volumes just pathetic 09:55 <ItalianSharp> i just shut down my trading platform so that i dont fall into stupid temptations...better off saving my cash for the fed speech <szubaark> italian, sometimes before FOMC announcment they would trend all day so thats what i was "looking for" <eminitrader> had a pre open trade expecting that szu...didn;t work today :( 09:56 <ItalianSharp> szu, true...but the fact that the positive trade balance numbers didnt cause the indices to gap nor any type of reaction, makes me think that these numbers have momentarily been put on hold until bernanke speaks... <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 799.8 --> + 0.2 09:57 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 800.20 -> small size <ItalianSharp> actually, all indices gapped...but there was not the kinda strong move you'd expect at the open with high volatility...and if the open is supposed to set the pace for most of the trading day...well, this open sets the pace for some nice chop... 09:58 <jperl> ER2 VWAP= 800.57 09:59 one STd Dev is only 5 ticks 10:00 <NihabaAshi> Volatility has been at equilibrium most of the morning...reason for the chop so far. 10:01 Changing my trading plan and going to plan B... 10:02 Take quick profits. Exited ER2 Long @ 799.80 --> - 0.4 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 799.80 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1424.50 10:03 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 108.25 --> - 1708.25 «« paper »» 10:05 Exited all Long NQ at 1808.25 --> - 8.25 «« paper »» :(( Shorts NQ @ 1808.25 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 799.10 --> + 0.7 <szubaark> crap.. just ate a 8 point Stop due to Volatility spike to downside 10:06 <eminitrader> that was a wild move <ItalianSharp> classic stop hunting move 10:07 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 798.8 10:09 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 798.20 -> small size 10:12 1 contract only Covered ER2 Short @ 798.80 --> - 0.6 10:13 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 798.80 * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:14 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 798.7 --> + 0.1 <eminitrader> exit stop raised ES @ 1423.50 10:15 <NihabaAshi> :( Exited ER2 Long @ 798.40 --> - 0.4 10:17 Long ER2 @ 799.00 -> small size 10:18 2 contracts only <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1808.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:19 thats enough for me.. * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 798.40 -> Add 10:25 <eminitrader> Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1425,50 --> + 1425,50 - 1424.50 10:27 <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 798.80 --> + 0.4 Volatility no longer at equilibrium...its slowly declining... 10:28 Hopefully it declines a little longer to help setup a volatility spike. <ItalianSharp> niha, when you say volatility at equilibrium what do you exactly mean? 10:29 <eminitrader> niha ...what do u mean by equilibrium and how do u measure it ? thx <ItalianSharp> that volatility is evenly distributed? emini: lol <MaxMax> probably.narrow candles forming ?? <eminitrader> great minds think alike :))) <NihabaAshi> No peaks...almost horizontal like...WRB's easily retraced. 10:30 No steady declines and no steady rises. <ItalianSharp> do you also imply there is equilibrium between bulls and bears? <NihabaAshi> No <eminitrader> gotta thx 10:31 <NihabaAshi> Its more of a range/trend price action. Not buyers versus sellers. This 799.00 price area is a pain in the butt. 10:33 <eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1426.50 --> + 2 <pat255> vn emini ..... <NihabaAshi> ER2 should already be at 799.50 by now :( 10:34 <eminitrader> thx pat ...was worth the wait :) <pat255> man u have patience ... u bet <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 799.60 --> + 0.6 10:35 <ItalianSharp> niha, one more question on what you stated above: " Volatility no longer at equilibrium...its slowly declining..." 10:36 <NihabaAshi> Tightning my stops. <ItalianSharp> was that volatility decline an indication a spike in yr favor was likely coming up? 10:37 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 799.10 --> + 0.1 10:39 [10:37] <ItalianSharp> was that volatility decline an indication a spike in yr favor was likely coming up? 10:40 It "always" is. Reason why I "consistently" say in here... Declining volatility leads into Volatility Spikes. <pat255> yes ...niha is it possible to post a chart showing low vol area? ty 10:41 <NihabaAshi> pat...its easy... <pat255> will go over your comments pm...interesting .. <NihabaAshi> Find any small interval ranges back to back (consecutive)... 10:42 That's your declining volatility. A minimum of three intervals in a roll. <pat255> k....on 2 min chart <NihabaAshi> Any interval. <pat255> ty 10:43 <NihabaAshi> Preferrably after a WRB 10:45 <pat255> k.. <NihabaAshi> I'm really getting nowhere in this price action after the first trade... 10:47 Will return later around 1:30pm est. 10:48 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <pat255> later niha <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:56 <RussellDaytrade> interesting 2 week pattern. looks poised to fall, perhaps regain the breakout area of 780, that is about 787 erH7 equivalent. anyone else have ideas? 10:59 <jperl> pretty pathetic morning.... 11:33 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-12-12/JP ERL_011.png <Brutus> Long ER2 @ 795.4 12:06 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:08 <Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 793.6 --> - 1.8 12:17 <codehead> fat vegas possible trigger coming up on QM 12:22 <Brutus> FOMC leak something? 12:23 <RussellDaytrade> the room is bugged! 12:35 <Brutus> Dodgy bankers 12:38 <codehead> ER interesting here on cci... 12:50 vegas triggered (countertrend long signal), but it's stuck between that and rolling over seems like a bounce brewing tho 12:51 hm, it's stuck 12:54 <pat255> emini u there? 12:57 <yo> hello niha ,all 12:58 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:17 <codehead> Qm in a tailspin 13:34 <eminitrader> back pat 13:36 <pat255> u guys missed this move down ... <eminitrader> no setup for asell here 13:37 here = for me <pat255> not here ... <eminitrader> on a normal day wld have sold here betn 21 - 23 ...taking a rain check today :) 13:38 <pat255> especially fomc on the deck... 13:44 * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 13:49 <RussellDaytrade> with all the pre-fed selling today, wouldn't surprise me if the market rallies sharply post-announcemnet, even as i think the bigger picture is down, ie, weeks-to-months. 13:51 <Brutus> Yeah RD up first then down. ???? 13:55 FOMC 1400 or 1415 ? 13:56 <pat255> 1415 i think.. 13:57 <RussellDaytrade> 14:15 13:58 <Brutus> thx <RussellDaytrade> think we've had the down, mostly, perhaps a last gasp shakeout down then up, i'm thinkin, but, where i usually expect a selloff after the news, then a rally off the sellof, today, it has setup differently, instead of rallying pre-fed, and spiking up momentarily, and then selling off hard, and then regaining most of it back, today the dynamic is of a different charater, ie, selling first... 14:00 that is what leads me to think that the main move post-fed may be more up than down, basically, gaff the shorts 14:01 <pat255> yeah better get your fingers cranked up ...mkt moves like a wild bronco... <eminitrader> and heavy duty selling ...not just stops <pat255> if selling many stopd gonna trigger... 14:02 <ItalianSharp> looking at the big downmove ahead of the FOMC, i am expecting the fed to hold rates unchanged but to adopt a more hawkish language about growth and inflation 14:06 <NihabaAshi> Market breadth indices are set up for a big parabolic move 14:11 <pdays> no change 14:14 <szubaark_away> Buys NQ @ 1800.25 «« paper »» 14:15 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 792.00 -> small size 14:16 Long ER2 @ 791.90 -> Add 14:17 Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 792.40 --> + 0.5 14:18 Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 794.60 --> + 2.6 <szubaark_away> exit stop set NQ @ 1800.25 «« paper »» 14:19 <NihabaAshi> Ooops...that's a 1/4 and not a 1/3 <szubaark_away> nice niha Exited all Long NQ at 1802.75 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 14:20 <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 795.10 --> + 3.1 14:21 Holding 1 contract remainder Sponsor: <ItalianSharp> nice niha 14:22 you are the king of ER2 <NihabaAshi> exit stop raised ER2 @ 792.60 14:27 I'm not up big for the day but I did reach my profit goal for the day... Will leave my remainder alone to see if it can hit 800.00 14:28 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:29 <ItalianSharp> great stuff niha <RussellDaytrade> i now think it'll spend most of the rest of the day bleeding off the gains that just hapened <ItalianSharp> euro is heading north to 1.3500 14:33 i am wondering how good that will be for both US and EU economies 14:34 <NihabaAshi> :( 14:37 <ItalianSharp> wow, this doesnt look like a retracement <NihabaAshi> Looks like my remainder is in some trouble while ER2 is in this s/r zone. 14:38 <ItalianSharp> niha, are you still bullish after this prolonged retracement? 14:39 <NihabaAshi> No...back to neutral. 14:40 Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 792.60 --> + 0.6 14:45 Looks like my day is done after seeing my remainder "rudely" pick pocketed. 14:47 Going to do some website work. Sponsor: * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <yo> gn all 15:30 <eminitrader> see u all .. 15:38 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:41 <pat255> c u all later ty all 15:54 <NihabaAshi_away> Take care all and see all tomorrow...I'll be bullish at the Open. 16:29 * DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Dec 12 16:29:13 2006
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