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#FuturesTrades November 29th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.









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+18.60 +0.0000
$1,860.00 $0.00

Waiting for Volatility  

Profit/Loss Blotter

I'm absolutely convinced that the key to consistent profits while trading the Emini Futures is Volatility Analysis, Position Size Management, knowing when to quit and knowing when to keep pushing it.

Statistically I know that the pm trading session can be very profitable for me and I need to pace myself in my morning trades so that I'm not easily frustrated in the pm trading session.

Simply, if I enter the p.m. trading session...rested and prepared to trade...I have a 90% chance to finish the day profitable along with reaching whatever trading goals I've outlined for myself.

Today, the same theme is repeated...I had a decent size on a winning trade that produced at least a WRB pt3 price level with me still in the trade.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Wed Nov 29 09:14:00 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:14
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<szubaark> gm09:18
<pat255> gm all...mkt as usual up ..09:19
<jperl> ER2 VWAP numbers:

yesterday: 773.35
<yo> gm all
<jperl> 1 week: 782.84

1 month: 775.26

1 year: 732.25

looks like open will be between weekly and monthly VWAP09:20
<Brutus> RD - comes out punching :)09:22
<PapaJon> gm all09:23
<RussellDaytrade> sold all them so-called 'losers' for net profits!! switching to net short, likely early, on a big picture basis, will try to improve the trade management and modulation.09:24
<wizardofrijnsaterwou> gm all09:25
<NihabaAshi> RussellDay...nice patience on those Longs.09:27
<RussellDaytrade> i expect the er will encounter strong resistance in the 785-787 area, if it makes it that far.
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<RussellDaytrade> thx, would like to be doing that with real trades.09:29

Covered all ER2 Short @ 780 --> + 1.1 paper 09:30
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 780.30 -> large size 09:31
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 781 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 781.10 --> - 0.8 09:32
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 781.10
Oh oh
Long ER2 @ 781.70 -> Add 09:33
<pdays>  Shorts ER2 @ 781.3 09:35

Covered all ER2 Short @ 781 --> + 0.3
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1795.50 paper 09:37
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 782.30 -> Add

The initial trade size I posted as large was incorrect...it was a small size...09:38
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1795.5 paper
<NihabaAshi> Reason why I've been adding to it to bring it to full...

Position size error.
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1794.25 --> - 1.25 paper 09:39
Shorts NQ @ 1794.25 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1794.5 --> + 1 paper 09:40
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 781.20 --> - 1 09:41
<szubaark> starting to get choppy :((
<WannaBeBOS> should have kept that one niha09:42
<NihabaAshi> That size error got me off balance a little.09:44

Wished I could have held it.
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1794.25 paper
Covered all Short NQ at 1794.25 --> 0 paper 09:45
real jumpy in a small range opening
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 782.50 -> large size
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1794.5 paper 09:46
<ItalianSharp> 10:00am  USD New Home Sales m/m09:48
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1795.75 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 783.20 --> + 0.7 09:49

Volatility is declining.09:53
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<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1792 --> - 3.75 paper
Shorts NQ @ 1792 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1792.5 --> + 2 paper 09:54
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 782.20 -> large size 09:59
<PapaJon> news any sec now10:00
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 782.50 --> + 0.3 10:01
<pat255> gl agreesive down bar...

<szubaark> just needs to go down not flip around
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 783.50 -> large size 10:05
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1795.5 paper
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1796.25 --> - 4.25 paper


Buys NQ @ 1796.50 paper

in a deep hole now :((10:06
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 784.8 -> Add paper
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 784.50 --> + 1
<szubaark> geez10:07
<RussellDaytrade> a day or so of adverse price move against trade is very possible
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 785.20 -> large size 10:08
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1797.5 -> Add paper 10:09
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 785.50 --> - 0.3 10:10
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 785.50
Exited all ER2 Long @ 785.20 --> - 0.3 10:14
Long ER2 @ 785.10 -> large size 10:16
Exited all ER2 Long @ 785.60 --> + 0.5 10:17
Shorts ER2 @ 785.60 -> large size 10:20
<RussellDaytrade> got a setup on the er, target to 781.5 in approx 25 minutes from now. setups may not work as well or as fully today, as it seems to be a fairly dtrong trending day up, etc. created nq and es conversion this past weekend, nq target 1791, es 1394.
<pat255> geez scalp in this chop ...10:21
<ItalianSharp> we got oil inventories coming up in 8 mins10:22
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1796.50 --> 0 paper 10:23
Shorts NQ @ 1796.50 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 784.80 --> + 0.8

szu...that's about all we can do is scalp it when it becomes too difficult to hold on to the trend.10:24

I had a few trades in the right direction taken out for loses...

Warning sign that I need to lower my WRB pt goals and take guick profits.10:25
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 784.9 10:27
thats paper
<pat255> yes les S on paper...tren i sup10:28
<les> ?
<NihabaAshi> A lot of trades today...still in the red hole because of commissions.10:32
<les>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 784.4 --> + 0.5 paper 10:34
<ItalianSharp> we got beige book coming up at 2pm...perhaps decent volatility is postponed until then10:36
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1794.5 --> + 4 paper 10:38
<NihabaAshi> Italian...yep...volatility should return again soon after 1:30pm est.10:39
<les>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 784.8 paper
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1793.50 --> + 3 paper 10:40
<les>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 785 paper 10:44

sposted that wrong

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 785 --> - 0.1 paper 10:47
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1795.5 paper 10:48
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 783.6 --> + 1011.9 paper 10:55
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 783.50 -> small size
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1792.75 --> + 2.75 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 783.00 --> + 0.5 10:57

That gets me green for the day.
<szubaark> Nice niha. that was a TOUGH Opening10:58
just when u thought its gonna breakout, it went opposite then zig-zaged in a tight range
where is my Zig-Zag indicator when i need it? :))10:59
<NihabaAshi> It was more tough than needed after I got mixed up on my size and started adding at resistance levels (not a good time to add).
<szubaark> Niha u think this Opening chop was due to the Gap? u had buyers and sellers fighting the GAP11:00
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 783.90 -> small size
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 784.2 -> Add paper 11:01
Covered 1/2 NQ Short @ 784.2 --> 0 paper 11:02
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1794.75 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 784.2 -> Add paper
Shorts NQ @ 1795.5 paper 11:03
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 784.60 --> + 0.7
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1794.75 paper 11:04
<NihabaAshi> Geeesh...now it decideds to put in a parabolic with volatility.11:06

After I dump my trade :(
<szubaark> Niha i was watching ES and YM break highs so i held
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1799 -> Add paper
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1798.75 --> + 4 paper 11:07
<NihabaAshi> Nice szu
<szubaark> Thanks.
<NihabaAshi> szu...that Long position I exited was my ONLY pattern signal of the day :)11:08

Everything else today was intuition trading.
<szubaark> Niha i see a Bullish White hammer there on 5 min inside that White WRB so that was your "pattern"?11:09
ER2 im talking about
<NihabaAshi> It wasn't what I was looking at but the 5min chart also had a valid pattern signal...different one.11:10

Yet, what you saw on the 5min chart is good also.

I didn't see that one.11:11

Even though I have the 5min chart up maximized on the other monitor :(

I must be having vision problems today :)

Shorts ER2 @ 786.30 -> small size 11:19
<RussellDaytrade> new targets, 784, 1795, 1399, all in approx 35 minutes from now11:24
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 785.80 --> + 0.5 11:25
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1796.5 --> + 1.5 paper 11:29
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:48
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1798.25 paper 12:07
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead12:08
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all NQ Short @ 1794.75 --> + 3.5 paper 12:22
couldn't resist, although i think we've seen the highs, and that its going much lower.12:23
i think for those so inclined, swing shorts, with a scaled entry, and prudent size management, are correct about these levels and this timeframe.12:26
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 783.1 --> + 1015.15 paper 12:53
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1791.25 paper 12:58

gap close?13:00

exit stop set NQ @ 1791.25 paper
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1788.25 --> + 3 paper 13:05

now breakeven for day

Recovering from the losses during that Brutal opening chop13:06
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 781.7 --> + 1016.55 paper 13:11
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1786.25 paper 13:13
<RussellDaytrade> net positive on all trades in er and nq
<Brutus> WTG RD, sent you a PM.13:16
<RussellDaytrade> may have a mini setup inhere, might reach up as high as 785 in 45 or so. i doubt it'll get that high, but thats what the model says, perhaps it splits the diffference, 783+, lucky to get it if it happens, i think13:22
<NihabaAshi> Just got back...impressive steady decline from the top.13:24

Traders Accounting 

As traders we must treat our trading like a business if we are to succeed as traders and as a business. Therefore, waiting till the last few weeks March to prepare for April's taxes is not good for your trading and could put extra stress on your trading during tax month or the months that follow if your one of those traders that filed an extension.. Therefore, its best to be on top of your taxes throughout the year and Traders Accounting is a great resource for such especially if you want to prevent penalties or an audit several years from now.
<RussellDaytrade> if breaks this low with a little gusto, the setup is most likely no longer valid, may still be if price remains within .5 of prior low13:25
<pat255>  may end up in red today..?13:26
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1786.25 paper
<ItalianSharp> it looks like someone is slowly selling off very patiently
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1783.50 --> + 2.75 paper 13:29
im POSITIVE for day now.
<RussellDaytrade> nq negative13:32
<szubaark> and the Beige report hasnt even come out yet LOL :))13:33
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 778.70 -> small size 13:34
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1779 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Long ER2 @ 778.9 paper 13:36
<NihabaAshi> Volatility showed up early...I didn't expect it to start showing until around 1:45pm est.13:37
<RussellDaytrade> mo real convicxtion to the upside, just trading it.
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 779.10 --> - 0.4 13:38
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 779.10
Long ER2 @ 779.20 -> Add
Long ER2 @ 778.90 -> Add 13:39
Total of 3 contracts now...still small size.
<RussellDaytrade> if thats a low that sticks, may have target of near 782.5 in approx 46 from low13:40
<ItalianSharp> niha, how do you interpret this slow selloff? might be due to beige book coming up in 20mins?
<RussellDaytrade> could stall at prior low breakdown near 78113:41

Exited all ER2 Long @ 779.6 --> + 0.7 paper 13:42
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 779.50 --> + 0.6
Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 779.70 --> + 0.6
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 779.30 --> + 0.2 13:44
<szubaark> i chased it.. paying price for it13:46

already 4 points against me :((

Covered all Short NQ at 1787.75 --> - 8.75 paper 14:00


Buys NQ @ 1787.75 paper

Exited all Long NQ at 1785.25 --> - 2.5 paper 14:01

Shorts NQ @ 1785.25 paper

Down again :((
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 781.60 -> small size 14:02
Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 781.80 --> + 0.2 14:09
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 781.70 --> + 0.1
<szubaark> nail biter here14:11
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 781.8 paper 14:12
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark> Beige book produced NO VOLATILITY14:14
sometimes it does, sometimes it doeasnt.. Go figure :))14:15
if u were Long since the 8:30 Reports, well they cleaned you out as well14:17
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 780.8 --> + 1 paper 14:19
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 780.40 -> large size 14:30
Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 781.30 --> + 0.9 14:32
Too bad its not the same large size I was doing in the a.m. trading session.14:33
Tightning up my trailing stop14:35
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 782.1 paper 14:36
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 782.10 --> + 1.7
Holding 1 contract
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1788.50 --> - 3.25 paper
<RussellDaytrade> this ones early, may go significantly against entry price14:37
potential run to 785 setting up
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 782.9414:38
<szubaark> crap.. coudnt come out Positive if my life depended on it. tough market today. i tried14:39
* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away
<NihabaAshi>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 780.50 14:41
First time all day I've had time to post my trailing stop info.
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts NQ @ 1795.75 paper 14:55
<ItalianSharp> niha, on a scale 1 to 10 how would you grade todays price action?15:00
<NihabaAshi> 615:01
<ItalianSharp> not that bad then15:02
<NihabaAshi> Had the market did that sell-off anytime after 1:45pm est instead of so early in its reaction to the pending Beige Book...15:04

I would rate today's price action much higher.
<ItalianSharp> the thing about the selloff is that it occurred too slowly with apparently very low volatility...tough to catch15:05
<NihabaAshi> Agree15:06

I missed most of it due to lunch and personal stuff.

It was very orderly like...almost like it was planned.
<ItalianSharp> yep15:07
IMO, big traders locked in profits from long positions ahead of beige book and then re-entered after the data turned out to be not as spooky
<NihabaAshi> I have a target for my remainder @ 785.4015:08

That's a key s/r zone price area.
<ItalianSharp> yep...i just saw that
and that could as well be a good short setup opportunity15:09
some glimpses on trichet:15:10
<ItalianSharp> 15:09 Trichet says US's Paulson favors a strong dollar
<ItalianSharp> 15:08 Trichet repeats G7 call against currency volatility
<ItalianSharp> 15:06 Trichet says UK would be better off in the Euro
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 785.50 --> + 5.1 15:13
<pat255> vn niha ...15:15

missed this rally got stopped out ...:(


<NihabaAshi> I'm done for the day...got my profit goal of the day even with the excessive commissions due to my overly aggressive trading during the a.m. trading session.15:17
<yo> gn all15:53
<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.16:17
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:33


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M.A. Perry and Associates



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