#FuturesTrades November 28th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log
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ER2 EuroFX EC +16.80 +0.0000 $1,680.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
Another ugly trading day and a valid pattern signal once again saves the day along with the fact I had increased my position size due to the valid pattern signal.
See chat log below for more details about the pattern signal.
Other than that, it was a good trading morning even though I was unable to let go of some lingering frustration and it did enter my trading in the afternoon trading session.
The key thing I learn today or was able to get reinforcement is that if I'm losing money and its the p.m. trading session...
Don't get frustrated because a big trade will appear.
In the past, I would get frustrated...call it a day early in the afternoon to only see 1-2 big price moves in the p.m. that would have made it a profitable day.
This isn't a gut feeling about my trading...its a statistical fact that 92% of my losing trading days would have been profitable trading days had I continue trading beyond 2pm est based upon the valid pattern signals that appear after 2pm est.
Therefore, with a statistical fact about my pm trading habits...I now have the confidence to continue trading knowing that things will get better.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Tue Nov 28 09:31:00 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:31 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <pat255> gm all.. niha any bias this am...or feel..ty <NihabaAshi> I'm bullish\ 09:32 <pat255> kty 09:33 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 772.8 «« paper »» 09:38 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 772.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 771.2 --> + 1.6 «« paper »» 09:39 exit stop lowered ER2 @ 772.7 «« paper »» 09:40 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1773 «« paper »» Covered all Short NQ at 1768.75 --> + 4.25 «« paper »» 09:41 <les> hey its much easier to make paper money :) i should do that for a living <PapaJon> and live in paper house, pay paper bills, drive paper car.. hehe 09:42 <les> already do <szubaark> u got to treat paper like real cash or u wasting your time <PapaJon> lol <les> gets cold here tho actualy szu, i'm not practising here... just testing a variation of one of my strats 09:43 <szubaark> but u right.. a lot of people think they can screw around with paper trading (dont follow rules, increase contracts etc) 09:44 <Brutus> 1000/1500 Oct Existing Home Sales -0.6% -1.9% 09:45 1000/1500 Nov Richmond Fed Mfg Index -2 1000/1500 Nov Conference Board Consumer Confidence 106.0 105.4 Index <szubaark> this competative market will make you pay for these mistakes sooner or later <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 769.60 -> small size 09:46 High risk trade...2 contracts only 09:47 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.4 --> + 3.4 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 769.00 --> - 0.6 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 769.00 <ItalianSharp> brutus, where did you get those data? <les> Shorts ER2 @ 769.1 <NihabaAshi> Have too many contracts on my reversal. 09:48 <Brutus> Dow jones news <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769 --> + 0.1 damn fatfinger <ItalianSharp> arent those data supposed to come out at 10am? <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.40 --> - 0.4 09:49 <Brutus> Yes <les> trying to move a target <szubaark> We have Bernake speech also today? <les> do u know what time he starts? <ItalianSharp> 12.30 bernanke speech 09:50 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 769.70 -> large size Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 770.30 --> + 0.6 09:51 <les> Long ER2 @ 770.6 <NihabaAshi> That gets me profitable for the day. 09:52 <szubaark> Nice Niha. <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 769.80 --> + 0.1 We got volatility coming here via the 10am est report and then again via Bernanke speech around 1230pm est. 09:55 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <ItalianSharp> niha, we also have another report at 10.30 09:56 ooppss.. sorry no report at 10.30 its tomorrow 09:57 <les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 769.6 --> - 1 <pdays> 2 @ 10 09:58 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 770.40 -> small size 10:00 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1774.25 «« paper »» 10:01 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 771.50 --> - 1.1 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 771.50 Large long position <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1774.25 «« paper »» Exited all Long NQ at 1777 --> + 2.75 «« paper »» 10:02 quick report scalp <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 772.50 --> + 1 10:03 Exited ER2 Long @ 772.70 --> + 1.2 Holding 1 contract :( 10:06 <jperl> I'm done for the morning.... here are the executions... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-28/JP ERL_011.png <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 772.80 --> + 1.3 Shorts ER2 @ 772.10 -> small size 10:09 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1771 «« paper »» 10:12 exit stop set NQ @ 1771 «« paper »» keeping it tight Nihba u got nice entry on that Short..pattern signal? 10:13 <NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 770.10 --> + 2 szu...yes...first pattern signal of the day. Everything else has been intuition trades. I may just get lucky and reach my profit target goal for the day prior to FED Bernanke speech :) 10:14 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1771 --> 0 «« paper »» Will Re-Short watching NQ,ES at lows here 10:15 <NihabaAshi> :( 10:21 <Brutus> 1230/1730 Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on the economic outlook in New York 1230/1730 Ex-Fed Chmn Greenspan speaks at an investors' conference in New York 1230/1730 Philadelphia Fed Pres Plosser speaks on the economy in Rochester, <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 771.80 --> + 0.3 <Brutus> N.Y <NihabaAshi> I thought for sure I would be able to exit that remainder at a "new low of the day". 10:22 <Brutus> Yes so did I, was thinking 767 10:23 Maybe a DT and down 10:24 on ES <NihabaAshi> Volatility is equal across the board...we should start seeing some chop like price action or easy retracements of prior expansion intervals. <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1778 «« paper »» 10:27 exit stop set NQ @ 1778 «« paper »» 10:28 wanted 81 pulled back real FAST once it hit 10:30 hopefully this small pullback wont take me out as every uptick is retraced 10:31 Exited all Long NQ at 1780 --> + 2 «« paper »» missed about +2 extra points due to the fast,jumpy price action :( 10:32 <NihabaAshi> Market is trying hard to find a direction and keep it. Long ER2 @ 774.80 -> small size 1 contract only 10:33 <les> the daily suggests a bounce is due... but dollar is still in deep do-do <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 775.00 --> + 0.2 <szubaark> nice Volatility so far.. NQ has 5 point 5 minute candles <les> Long ER2 @ 776. 10:34 <Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 775.3 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 775.50 -> small size 10:35 2 contracts only <Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 774.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:36 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 775.80 --> + 0.3 10:38 <les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 776.1 --> + 0.1 10:39 cant be right ah, i posted entry wrong... 10:40 was 775.5 exit at 776.1 - +.60 10:41 Sponsor: <Brutus> 1500 tick on that run up 10:42 Nice short on ER with stop at HOD, short in the low 776 area 10:46 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 775.6 10:50 Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 775.1 --> + 0.5 10:54 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 775.00 -> small size 10:55 3 contracts only I got the direction right...hopefully this thing doesn't take me out for a small loss and then drop to my profit target. 10:57 <les> i'm hoping to get lucky with retrace of wrb @ 10:32 10:58 <yo> where stop niha? <NihabaAshi> adjusting it now <yo> k tx 10:59 <yvberj> Shrt. ER 775.2 <NihabaAshi> exit stop set ER2 @ 775.50 <yo> ok <NihabaAshi> :( 11:00 <yo> :( <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 775.40 --> - 0.4 Starting to look like I won't get my target and will have to continue trading into the Bernanke speech :( 11:01 Shorts ER2 @ 775.60 -> small size 11:02 <les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 775.6 --> 0 <NihabaAshi> Come on...a few more ticks. 11:05 <yo> good one i think maybe 3.8 a target 11:06 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 774.80 --> + 0.8 <yo> nice <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1776.75 «« paper »» 11:07 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 774.60 -> small size <szubaark> Risky trade <NihabaAshi> 1 contract only <szubaark> this is what gets me in trouble.. these late day pullbacks/retracemnets <NihabaAshi> szu...we all have difficulty on trading days where the volatility spends most of the day equalized. 11:09 Trading usually (should be) smoother when volatility is rising noticably and declining noticably...back n forth. 11:10 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1778.50 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» :(( Buys NQ @ 1778.50 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> When its almost horizontal with very little peaks...its either tough trading, more stressful or both. 11:11 Most of my morning trades today has been on the small size because of such...to better manage my stress level while trading this. I've only made one position size error and that was my second trade of the day and it was costly because I'm close to my profit goal for the day but not close enough :( 11:13 [09:47] <NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 769.00 [09:48] <NihabaAshi> Have too many contracts on my reversal. [09:49] <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.40 --> - 0.4 11:14 That trade right there is the reason why I'm still trading :( I just need one more tick on this contract and I'll have my goal. Ooops... 11:15 Shorts ER2 @ 774.10 -> Add <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1776.75 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 11:16 :(( paying for my mistake here <RussellDaytrade> :)) <NihabaAshi> same here. <szubaark> typical afternoon pullback crap 11:17 Buys NQ @ 1778.50 «« paper »» 11:19 <NihabaAshi> YM not co-operating :( <szubaark> 3rd mouse gets the cheese <yo> see ym <yvberj> Finally covered ER @774.7. Too much chop for the moment. 11:22 <NihabaAshi> I hope it gets choppier and drops about 5-7 ticks from current levels. 11:23 <yvberj> I hope you're right. <szubaark> hehe..im Long i need a bounce here to move my Stop 11:24 exit stop set NQ @ 1778.50 «« paper »» anyways..i think any trade here is gambling 11:25 i had a good morning so i got too cocky :( and started trading this afternoon Crap. 11:26 Exited all Long NQ at 1778.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:28 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 774.20 --> + 0.3 11:29 <szubaark> im done..3 dummy trades. definetly wont be trading rest of day. <NihabaAshi> That ADD I did was a trade order error...should have been an exit of the 1 contract Short and I added to it via 1 contract. * szubaark is now known as szubaark_Away <NihabaAshi> Thus, +0.40 and -0.10 for a total of +0.30 11:30 I got my profit target for the day and can relax now. If a pattern signal appears at/near the Bernanke speech... I'll trade again via 1 contract only trades. I'm officially in profit protection mode now. :) 11:31 Hopefully he makes a mistep and saids something about the economy to cause some volatility. 11:33 <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 777.1 --> + 1 «« paper »» 11:41 Long ER2 @ 774 -> Add «« paper »» 12:01 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:06 <NihabaAshi> No pattern signal to get 12:31 Short No intuition signal to get Short Nothing Probably just price noise. <pat255> looks like ... 12:32 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 773.1 -> Add «« paper »» 12:33 Long ER2 @ 772.5 -> Add «« paper »» 12:37 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 772.40 -> small size 12:45 1 contract only 12:46 I hate when it jumps back several ticks on retail trades only (no institution size). 12:48 Covered ER2 Short @ 773.40 --> - 1 12:50 <RussellDaytrade> what bernanke just said is bullish, and will be interpreted as such <NihabaAshi> Market didn't like what he said. 12:51 He can be bullish and the market be bearish in its reaction to his bullish comments or vice versa. At least in the short term...by end of day or by tomorrow or close of the week is a different story. 12:52 <RussellDaytrade> his first comments referred and implied specifically to 'sustaining economic growth'/ 12:54 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 772.70 -> small size Early entry...may pay the price for such. Yep 12:55 Covered ER2 Short @ 773.20 --> - 0.5 12:56 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 773.20 <jperl> ER2 at VWAP 773.20 <NihabaAshi> 2 contracts and a trade order error. Exited ER2 Long @ 772.70 --> - 0.5 12:58 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 772.70 <pat255> my vwap works but the std dev are really crooked ...lol 12:59 <NihabaAshi> 4 contracts...fixing the prior order error and volatility is dropping :( 13:01 :( 13:04 Covered all ER2 Short @ 773.70 --> - 1 Couldn't reverse in time prior to volatility showing up. <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 774.3 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 13:05 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 774.30 -> large size I only have about 5 tick wiggle room on this :( 13:06 I have next to me computer for NOVEMBER...no trades between 12pm and 1:30pm est due to the problematic volatility. 13:08 First day all month I didn't follow that rule. <yo> :( 13:09 <ItalianSharp> well niha, today should be an exepction as bernanke is speaking 13:10 greenspan used to bring much better volatility to the markets...bernanke is a loser <NihabaAshi> Rule was setup in reaction a few months ago to the FED speeches during mid-day. However, I've only recently started using that rule. <ItalianSharp> are you suggesting that the fed speaking during chop hours has a minor impact on volatility compared to the fed speaking at 2pm? 13:11 <NihabaAshi> No I'm saying...as I always have been...volatility analysis during mid day is tough. 13:12 Even tougher when there's a FED speech. Volatility is just too low in its peaks. 13:13 Retail traders moving the price by 1 to 8 ticks very quickly on 1-3 contract trades. 13:14 That doesnt' happen any other time of the day. Almost as if the big boys step aside and let the scalpers run wild :) Long ER2 @ 773.50 -> Add 13:15 Tough :( 13:17 Exited all ER2 Long @ 772.80 --> - 2.2 Back in the red. <pat255> dang ...:( <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 772.7 -> Add «« paper »» 13:18 <NihabaAshi> Decision time to bump up the size after 1:30pm est <pat255> this is so choppy here .. <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 772.30 -> large size If I can get my target on this large size position... 13:19 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 771.5 -> Add «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> I'll call it a day and take the profits and consider it a lesson well learned. Covered all ER2 Short @ 772.00 --> + 0.3 13:20 Still in the red. 13:21 Shorts ER2 @ 772.20 -> large size 13:22 Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 771.20 --> + 1 13:23 I'm profitable at current levels. 13:24 <ItalianSharp> come on niha...kick some ass already <NihabaAshi> It will be tough because its already at a WRB profit level. <ItalianSharp> wouldnt it be better to just trade out if you think its gonna be tough and enjoy small profits? 13:25 <NihabaAshi> Doesn't look too good about dropping further to the next WRB formation especially with volatility dropping. <ItalianSharp> theres lots of support at current levels <NihabaAshi> If volatility drops to fast...it will setup a volatility spike. It's trying to pick up momentum...still no sign of institutional players. 13:26 Tried to hold the trade beyond 1:30pm est 13:29 trailing stop hit :( 13:30 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 772.30 --> - 0.1 <RussellDaytrade> 775 target in anotherr 35 or so. 13:34 <NihabaAshi> I'm looking for a 6 tick target :) Volatility now dead...expecting a volatility spike here soon. 13:35 Hopefully this signals some institutional involvement. 13:36 Geesh...its like everybody is busy doing something else instead of trading :( 13:40 Long ER2 @ 772.60 -> large size 13:44 I don't have the exact size I want and may add to this. That position size error is keeping me in this trade a little longer than I had planned. 13:46 Exited all ER2 Long @ 771.50 --> - 1.1 13:49 Shorts ER2 @ 771.20 -> large size They partial me...that's the worst entry :( 13:50 Shorts ER2 @ 771.30 -> Add 13:51 partial again...worst add price. I need a 771.00 to dump this ADD. 13:53 Will need a little help. Shorts ER2 @ 771.50 -> Add 13:54 <pat255> tarde working niha...hing up here 771...area 13:56 <NihabaAshi> Geeesh. :( 13:57 Volaliltiy dropping fast. 13:58 I'm being beaten by fellow retail traders while I keep crossing my finger the institutions will show up so I can ride their coat-tail. 14:01 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 770.6 -> Add «« paper »» 14:02 <NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 770.90 --> + 0.6 14:03 <pat255> there u go niha ... 14:04 <NihabaAshi> Commissions is killing me today :( I'll probably get a "thank you card" in the mail from my broker in a few days :) 14:05 <pat255> tell him o lower commisions as u are big trader... or else ...lol 14:06 <NihabaAshi> Overall...I'm not a big trader...just on a few days per quarter. <pat255> hmmm niha with 3 ctrcts (as a small size) u prolly trade quite a bit over all <NihabaAshi> I do a tone of 1 contract trades too. 14:07 <pat255> k.. <NihabaAshi> Oh oh... 14:09 I dodged a bullet I think...some size started showing up...volatility was too low to determine if if can help me of go against me. 14:12 Covered ER2 Short @ 772.10 --> - 0.9 14:14 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 772.10 <szubaark> Niha broker owes you steak dinner tonight :) 14:15 <NihabaAshi> I'm getting a ton of partials :( 14:16 Long ER2 @ 772.20 -> Add I got the right size again...just can't catch any real movers to a possible WRB pt2 level exit. 14:17 <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 772.3 --> + 1.7 «« paper »» 14:18 <NihabaAshi> I'm going to assume Bernanke is no longer speaking. 14:20 The last two volatility declines indicate the market is no longer watching him. 14:21 Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 772.70 --> + 0.5 14:23 :( Just another WRB pt1 again. I think a 773.20 gets me profitable for the day "without" commissions included. 14:25 Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 773.20 --> + 1.1 14:26 Partials are killer slippage this afternoon :( A 773.50 on this exits gets me back where I was before the losses. 14:27 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> Looking for a 2 tick cushion to start dumping. 14:28 Unbelievable... 14:32 Exited ER2 Long @ 773.60 --> + 1.5 Holding a few contracts still. Had a 3 tick cushion...couldn't get a fill...used market order and they realmed me by 2 ticks. 14:33 Still waiting for a WRB pt2 now that I'm guaranteed I will close the day at a nice profit. 14:34 Tough fight today. <Brutus> Niha you can hit the order book numbers on the bid right? Also why don you use limit orders <NihabaAshi> I do sometimes and often have problems during the spikes if it stalls a tick away from the limit. 14:35 Like now...just dumped a contract via a limit... 14:36 No problem. If it was a 10 contract dump...there could be a problem. Depending upon the volatility. I don't have these size problems with ES nor NQ. 14:37 On occassion...I do with YM. <Brutus> On a spike I use a hotkey for a sell at ask - 0.1 as the B/A spread can be wide <NihabaAshi> ER2 is the most volatile of the bunch but you will run into some problems with size. Liquidity issue eventhough its rising volatility. 14:38 Exited ER2 Long @ 774.40 --> + 2.3 Exited ER2 Long @ 774.40 --> + 2.3 Holding 3 contracts 14:39 Brutus...what execution platform are you using ? 14:40 <Brutus> MB trading <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 773.30 --> + 1.2 Holding 1 contract 14:41 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 773.3 -> Add «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> When trading ER2 with size...you really need to be in tune with the volatility and make sure your ISP connection is up to speed (most aren't). 14:43 What we see on the screen is old info :) 14:44 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 772.70 --> + 0.6 Sponsor: <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 772.4 -> Add «« paper »» <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 773.8 --> + 1.4 «« paper »» <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 776.1 --> - 8.9 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> I have no buy signals into this ER2 upmove :( <NihabaAshi> Ok...I see the signal now. 15:21 <RussellDaytrade> those 3 were up approx 1.5 bucks, thru trading today, lowered my net cost from long net 6 (just now, was up to 10 yesterday) at 777, (was 779 yesterday). now long 3 at ap of 777. those should be in the money by tomorrow. 15:24 or perhaps later today. <NihabaAshi> I'm not sure if anybody in here is still reading that Trading Hammers (revisited) thread at EliteTrader.com 15:30 It's inactive but my most recent reply is this... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread .php?s=&threadid=52880&perpage=5&pagenum ber=144 The same pattern signal appeard on ER2 3min chart @ 2:09pm est. 15:31 A Bullish Dark Hammer pattern. Correlate that to my trade log in here and you can see where I made one particular major trade error. 15:32 [14:03] <NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 770.90 --> + 0.6 15:33 [14:14] <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 772.10 --> - 0.9 Luckily that loss wasn't big but should have been smaller along with reversing the Short into a Long position @ 771.80 - 772.00 15:34 I got Long with a VERY LARGE size around the 772.10 15:35 The trade that saved the day for me. Then I added to the position to ensure I had a chance to not only get profitable but to reach my trading goals for the day. 15:36 That's the pattern I saw about 5mins after its confirmation. 15:37 As soon as I saw it...I didn't hesitate to get Long. And luckily it was only 1 tick outside my "chase range". It works just fine on bar charts too. I just prefer using candlestick charts to help with my visualization of the volatility. 15:38 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:39 <NihabaAshi> Anyways, I'm in the middle of my documentation of my trading day and just wanted to share with you what I consider to be the key pattern or key trade of the day for me. <RussellDaytrade> what time of day was that trade at? 15:40 the last one. <NihabaAshi> My last trade was open at 2:14pm est The pattern signal occurred at 2:09pm est. 15:41 I was 5mins late to the party but luckily the party hadn't really started :) <RussellDaytrade> see it, thanks. you use a longer term time frmae for the euro trading? is see that the example you refer to is a 15 minute chart. 15:42 <NihabaAshi> I use any chart interval above 2min chart. <RussellDaytrade> you think that the general theme applies to shorter bars/candles, for example, a 1 minute? thats what i use, predominately. 15:43 <NihabaAshi> I don't know about 1min charts for its application because I don't use it... 15:44 I think I saw too much stuff in the volatility as the lower the intervals went. It was a choice I made about 6 years ago to stop looking at the 1min chart but I can't remember the exact reason why. 15:45 <RussellDaytrade> sounds reasonable. i am fairly accustomed to the 1 minute bars, have gotten to like them the most. 15:46 good to know what others look at and like to trade off of, so one can anticipate when others may be responding, and in what manner. 15:47 <yo> gn niha ,all 15:59 <RussellDaytrade> seems like they'll be being bid up tomorrow, best as i can see. <NihabaAshi> I don't see a lot of large prints... 16:00 Thus, I think this is mainly retail trader activity. If institutions show up in the morning tomorrow...we could easily see higher prices. 16:01 Thus, if the current price action can hold without any deep retracement... I'll be Bullish at tomorrow's Open. 16:02 <RussellDaytrade> i do not expect to surpass the highs put in, just a little follow-thru. i'll be switching to sell mode above 780-783 zone <NihabaAshi> That's a good price area to look for a Short. <Brutus> When is the next payrolls data? 16:03 I thought it was the first friday of the month but is does not show up for 1st Dec? 16:04 <RussellDaytrade> of course, there's always the possibility that if that occurs, (780-783), that i may be early, and have to endure so adverse price movement (or it can also be viewed as opportunity, if one cares to view it as such), before prices retrace down, etc. well, that felt better than yesterday, i'm calling it a victory. 16:07 <Brutus> Good RD, when you do real trades, brace yourself for days like yesterday 16:12 <NihabaAshi> Another day on the front lines of the battle. 16:13 Time for some RnR. Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:14 <RussellDaytrade> thanks brut. i am simulating when i will have more firepower (contract-wise), by scaling into trades. trading 1 makes one have to focus much more precisly on entries, which i generally like to do anyway. 16:18 <Brutus> I would be good to to simulated trades but still have some type a consequence attached to the outcome 16:20 <RussellDaytrade> had three strong trending days in the past month that would not be denied, and the retracements, althoght they ultimeately did retrace, were each about a week in happening.. 16:21 <Brutus> But sometimes they dont and that when people with that revision to the mean etc have blown hteir accounts 16:22 <RussellDaytrade> i am looking at trading the nq, as a substitute for paper trading the er. the dollar volatilty is less, it seems like a good way to modulate between when one is trading well, and not, trade the er when on, trasd the nq to get back in sync. 16:23 have to have depth to the account, and fortitude, and enough money management discipline to not get into possible margin call/closing territory. and then there's always some luck. 16:24 <Brutus> Dont take this the wrong way, but some lessons need to be learned no matter what the account. 16:26 A large account can give a false sense of security <RussellDaytrade> yes, a larger account means that much more risk, no doubt about it. 16:27 <Brutus> MAny daytraders only have 20 k in their account and take profits out monthly <NihabaAshi> The average stats I read once for day traders of Eminis a few years ago was 12k accounts. 16:28 <RussellDaytrade> i have seen that having the ability to add more open positions can and does equate to the potential for not only bigger gains, but also bigger adverse price movements. thx for mentioning it. <NihabaAshi> Prior to the bubble I think it was around 18k for the average retail futures trader. 16:29 <Brutus> A lot of guys do well most days and blow a lot of it on a couple of days. They cannot stop digging once things start to go wrong 16:30 <NihabaAshi_away> I thought it was more like a lot of guys are struggling/breakeven most days and a big losing day takes them out of their game plan for lack of discipline to stick with the plan after a few tough trading days. <Brutus> I am talking about some pro guys 16:31 <RussellDaytrade> you have to be on your game all the time, and be ready to pull the ripcord it the situation warrants. <NihabaAshi> Simply, most tend to "panick" and don't know how to get back to the game plan. I know a few institutional traders (pros) and these guy don't break a sweat when they are down 10 - 50k on a trade. 16:32 I guess it comes with many years of experience. <Brutus> Take yourself for example, your losing days are similar in size to winners 16:33 <RussellDaytrade> must of taken them a while to work up to that level of experience. <Brutus> but few losing days Alos there should be no reason for your losing days to be any bigger than a profitable day 16:34 For a day trader <NihabaAshi> My average winning day is higher than my average losing day and I exploit my winning days via quitting ahead prior to things getting tough. For example, I try hard to be done with trading before 1130am est. 16:35 I know...statistically, I struggle in the afternoon. <RussellDaytrade> is that a function of having learned from experience? <NihabaAshi> Yes but its also a sore spot in my trading because I don't take the proper time to learn how to efficiently trade the afternoons like I trade the morning session. 16:36 I've been spending more time on that the last two months. My ultimate goal is to be just as profitable in the p.m. trading session in comparison to the a.m. trading session. 16:37 Everybody has a weakness...p.m. trading is mine. <RussellDaytrade> hey, i have a question, Niha. since you have the ability to trade several or more, do you ever hold one/any overnight? <NihabaAshi> Yes but only specific days of the year. I only swing trade (overnight holds) during "market seasonal patterns" for such. 16:38 They don't happen often. Same with position trading. 16:39 For example, I currently have a Short in UsdCad from many years ago...still holding it :) <RussellDaytrade> that seems to me to be a goal to work towards, that is, developing the ability and wilingness to have a trade open overnight. certainly invlolves overcoming some fears and apprehensions. 16:40 <NihabaAshi> One thing I've learn is that I can't Swing Trade and Day Trade the same trading instrument nor a trading instrument with similar like price action. 16:41 <Brutus> I alwasy thought people went investment/position trading, then swing trading, then daytrading like myself <NihabaAshi> That type of multitasking is tough for me. 16:42 I can hold a position trade in Forex forever while day trading Eminis or swing trade in Treasuries at the same time with no problem. <RussellDaytrade> perhaps you know of institional trasders that trade-around their positions, addressing your point just now. 16:43 about short term and longer term trades, etc <NihabaAshi> Are you talking about Hedging ? <RussellDaytrade> no, just trading around a core trade/position, the core is longer term trade, then daytrading to augment the main trade. 16:44 or, it coulb be viewed as modulating the core trade. similar to what i was effecting today. 16:45 <NihabaAshi> The institutional guys I know don't day trade, swing trade nor position trade the same trading instrument. <Brutus> AMT4SWA did something similar with a couple of accounts right? 16:46 <NihabaAshi> Yes Those were the days when AMT was in here. <Brutus> RD I can send you the link to his post <NihabaAshi> He was doing some very large sizes when volatility overall in the market was declining. 16:47
