Session Start: Wed Nov 23 09:29:49 2005Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:29
<X> [NihabaAshi] Password, trade post script, trader profiles and trade journals are posted ONLY at the discussion forum at http://p207.ezboard.com/bthestrategylab
<PapaJon> gm all09:30
<eminitrader> morn pj
<NihabaAshi> My "trend analysis" bias for right now is Bullish.09:34
<pat255> thks niha...buy dips & sell eod ..09:35
<NihabaAshi>  Long ES @ 1262.00 -> small size 09:36
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1262.25
<NihabaAshi> We have a busy morning with key economic reports at 0945am, 1000am and 1030am est.09:38
<szubaark_>  Long YM @ 10882
<eminitrader>  Covered all ES Short @ 1262.75 --> - 0.5 09:40
<NihabaAshi>  exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1262.00 09:42
My missed entry at 1261.75 may be costly on this trade via losing a key tick of wiggle room to help me stay in it if it pullsback a little.09:43
<szubaark_> dang a tick? thats picky niha09:44
<NihabaAshi> For ES...yes
Especially with a pending 0945am est key econ report.09:45
Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1263.00 --> + 1
<szubaark_>  Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 10890 --> + 8 09:50
<NihabaAshi>  exit stop raised ES @ 1262.25
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1263.25 09:51
<NihabaAshi> YM 10900 looks doable today.09:52
<szubaark_> we got to take out yersturday high first09:58

problem is NQ retracing that last WRB candle10:01
<NihabaAshi> Look at today's volume so far...10:06
Be careful...its behaving like early Thanksgiving volume.
Very thin resistance and support levels.10:07
<szubaark_> still 10:30 Oil report

yeah good point Niha.

YM most bullish of them all10:11
<pat255> yup...low may eaisly get jerked around ..10:12
er2 weak...10:13
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.10:15
<NihabaAshi> Geesh...what's holding back ES :(10:18
<szubaark_> ER and NQ!
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1264.00 --> + 2
ES should have been at 1264.75 by now with the Dow movement.10:19
<pat255> nice niha
<WannaBeBOS> niha, that upward tendency sure held this year
<szubaark_> Im LONG the Dow, cant complain
<WannaBeBOS> in a big way
<szubaark_> "this year" is key word lol10:20
<WannaBeBOS> i was referring to the late october-mid november upward tendency
<NihabaAshi> Yep...the big boys and all the funds along with any big money player count on it.10:21

I guess with everybody willing to buy...it becomes in many ways a self-prophesy.

Or whatever they call it.
<coolweb> fullfilling :)10:22
<NihabaAshi> I know many funds that are under water heading into October each year...greatly depend on the rallies between October and year end to get them positive...

Along with their managers wanting to earn those bonuses.10:23
<coolweb> interesting
<WannaBeBOS> it sure worked
<coolweb> i'm going to keep october in mind10:27
:D
for next year
<eminitrader>  Covered all ES Short @ 1264.25 --> - 1 10:31
<jbraswell314>  Long ES @ 1264.50 10:38
<mispe>  Long YM @ 10910 10:40

 Exited all YM Long @ 10912 --> + 2 10:48
<szubaark_>  Exited all YM Long @ 10911 --> + 29 10:56
<NihabaAshi> Nice trade szu.11:05

I'm hopling I can stay in this trade and it develop into a "position trade" around the 1266.00 price area.
<pat255> nice entry niha ...on es..11:20
<NihabaAshi> Thanks pat...I had to make it count because I'm not trading this afternoon and wouldn't have the afternoon to fix any trade losses in the morning session.11:24

It's official...I stay in this trade until the close or it becomes a +1 tick stop out.11:25
<jbraswell314>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1266.25 --> + 1.75
<NihabaAshi> I have any order in for 1268.0011:26

Be back later and will cancel order upon return if the trade is still Open...then will watch it a little and return again about 5mins before the close.11:27
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 684.7 «« paper »» 11:44
Exited ER2 Long @ 684.8 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 11:48
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 684.8 «« paper »»
Covered all ER2 Short @ 684.9 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 11:51
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi11:53
<NihabaAshi> Late post and my 1 contract remainder got executed...I'm done for the day.
Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1268.00 --> + 6 11:54
<pat255> vn Niha ...

back to office ...ty all ..
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch11:55
<jbraswell314>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1269.25 --> + 4.75 12:34

 Long ER2 @ 684.30 12:35

 Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 684.80 --> + 0.5 12:36

from earlier. it screws up my trade results when I do two products at once
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.12:39
<jbraswell314>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 686 --> + 1.7 12:50

it's about damn time I make some good trades. These past two weeks and pimp slapped me in a big way12:51
<coolweb> hey jbras12:53
very good trades this week
congrats :)
stepping up the game baby!
<jbraswell314> thx. I'm just watch from here on out today.12:57

Also, wiring money into Tradestation, cool, so I can join your cult.

:)

will just trade equities through it and use it to backtest, tho
<szubaark_> .13:32
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.13:51
<coolweb>  short EUR 1.81413:53
holy shit
trade closed breakeven, that was interesting :)13:56
hmm14:04
just noticed my stops were being sent out native, never a good idea
<jbraswell314> cool, do you use TS's RadarScreen?14:15
<szubaark_> cool since hen u started trading Euro?14:20
<coolweb> oh just today, niha was talking about it and some other guys, i was just looking at it a few minutes ago, just spotted a low risk trade in , decided to 1lot it :)14:22

jbraswell: yes I do, its very good.14:23

a tick is $12.50 in euro interesting.
* NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi14:33
<coolweb> niha: how does euroFX correlate with the nasdaq/indexes ?14:44
<NihabaAshi> What do you mean by correlate ?14:49
<coolweb> Nihabashi: sort of like looking for products that don't follow the index, does opposite things or just on their own14:50

has no relations

to the index :)

actually14:51

I see it in the daily charts now

on tradestation, finally got data to it

it doesn't correlate at all it seems
<NihabaAshi> Right
When I trade EuroFX...I'm watching the inverse price action of the U.S. Dollar Index (not the futures).14:52
<coolweb> what symbol is that?14:53
<NihabaAshi> DX
DX00Y
Not sure what it is in TS
<coolweb> When you say inverse what do you mean?

like you flip it upside down?
<NihabaAshi> Yes
<coolweb> thats interesting hahaha :)

niha: you find it gives you a slight edge on whats happening in the next few minutes?14:54
<NihabaAshi> Simply, often I get trade signals in the U.S. Dollar Index...
Short signal in the DX is a Long signal in the EuroFX
Long signal in the DX is a short signal in the EuroFX.
<coolweb> I see14:55

Niha: Is euroFX one of the most heavily traded FX contract out there?
<NihabaAshi> coolweb...every institutional trader I know follows the U.S. Dollar while trading EuroFX.
However, most retail traders I know don't follow the U.S. Dollar Index while trading EuroFX.14:56
<coolweb> I see

Cash index is sort of like in stone, futures has a bit more whips ain't it
<NihabaAshi> I just rather do what the big guys are doing and then figure out why the U.S. Dollar is so important.
<coolweb> Sort of like how I track $INDU instead of the futures contract
<NihabaAshi> Also, its very easy to find Market Analysis about the U.S. Dollar instead of the Euro.14:58
<coolweb> I see

niha: you just trade the eurofx using your own TA method though right?
<NihabaAshi> Thus, more traders "tend" to tune in faster to the U.S. Dollar price movements than the price movements of the Euro...here in North America.
Yes...my own TA methods.14:59
<coolweb> it seems like eurofx trades 24 hours?15:01
<NihabaAshi> In case anybody is interested...the volatility index has been rising together "equally" for the past hour...slightly bearish or signs of exhaustion.15:02
It trades almost 24hrs...there's break in there somewhere.
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.15:03
<coolweb> you know what niha15:04
<NihabaAshi> It takes a break from 1645pm to 1800pm15:05
<coolweb> 9:30
looks like a good point to watch
<NihabaAshi> coolweb...if your gonna trade the EuroFX...you gotta get up early and watch when it makes its key price moves between 1am - 2am est15:06

Then again between 3am - 5am est

That way you'll be in tune with what its doing around 0930am est.15:07
<coolweb> very interesting15:08
<NihabaAshi> Trying to trade EuroFX without having a good feel or not watching its prior key price activities can be tough trading if trying to do it around 0930am est.

It also has stronger price reactions to the key economic reports in Europe and the U.S.15:09

Thus, you need to worry about twice as much in comparison to trading the Eminis.
<coolweb> ah15:10
for eminis I just look at $COMPQ and $indu, thank god for that , not too much stuff to follow
I'm going to backtest this
and see how 9:30 does
money is good but I can't be working around the clock trading15:11
niha: right now I backtested 10 days, so far 9:30 very important, I don't know when the exact euro market opens though , I can backtest those times as well15:12
<szubaark_> hmm.. nobody caught this Short
<NihabaAshi> I saw it at its peak then soon made a comment about the Volatility being exhausted.15:13
<szubaark_> prolly big boys taking some profit on longs before Long holiday15:14
<NihabaAshi> The Volatility Indices (VIX and VXN) has done something bearish for the first time on the same equal level that it didnt do for almost 3 trading days.
It "exhaustion signal" occurred around 2pm est.15:16
Not yet prepared to call it a Bearish signal.
Simply, time to take some profits for those still Long and possibly buy back in on the dips if it really is a "exhaustion" and not "bearish".15:17
I'm talking in terms of swing trading...not day trading.
<szubaark_> We were making already 3rd push up, small selloff was expected15:21

on 5minute15:22
<NihabaAshi> I've been expecting small sell-offs in the last 45mins of trading all week because its the Thanksgiving week...15:23
Probably one of the safest times to trade short :)15:25
<szubaark_>  Long YM @ 10952
<NihabaAshi> Coolweb...I trade both the EuroFX ($12.50 per tick) and its emini ($6.25 per tick)15:27
Doesn't really matter to me.
<coolweb> oh eurofx isn't a emini?

theres a $6.25 tick one as well?15:28

eurofx (the $12.50 ) one has some good volume like 300-500, hows the eminis?

300-500 per 3min
<NihabaAshi> coolweb...what's your TS symbol your looking at ???15:29
<coolweb> ECZ0515:32

euro...

hmm

niha

euro doesn't contain UK does it?15:33

who's the biggest market in europe? DAX?
<NihabaAshi> In terms of volatility...the EuroDollar.15:35
Maybe in volume also.
DJ EuroStoxx 50 (ESTX) has been picking up steam lately in popularity.15:36
That exhaustion pattern in the Volatilit Indices is now gone.15:37
<coolweb> this is nice niha15:40

real cool

:)
<NihabaAshi> coolweb...one of the worst times (no volatility) to trade EuroFX is between 2pm - 1am est
That's when you should sleep :)
<coolweb> hmm15:41

good point

haha

i just traded @ 1:00 or something
<NihabaAshi> Volatility and volume will be dead by 3pm est in EuroFX.15:42
There are a few ET moderators missing from here as of lately...all posting on a few occassions at ET.15:44
I know one is on vacation...need to find out what's up with the others.
<coolweb> hey niha15:45

1am EST MORNING -> 2pm afternoon?

thats like 13 hours15:46
<NihabaAshi> Yep15:47
11 hours
Plenty of time to sleep :)15:48
You'll be on the same schedule of a two big EuroFX traders I know in Montreal.
Both trade remote from there institution firms from 1am to around 6am est...15:49
Then they head in to the office and trade till around 2pm est...then go back home.15:50
<szubaark_> lets see if we get some end of day fireworks15:52
<coolweb> niha: when you say big how many contracts is big in eurodollar?15:55
<szubaark_> cool go Long some SIZE to help my Long15:58
<coolweb> hahahahaahhaahahhahaha
<NihabaAshi> coolweb...anything over 100 contracts...
* coolweb buys the 1 lot and presses the button furiously
<NihabaAshi> But not just once...maybe several times in a trading day as in "accumulation" for a position or swing trade.15:59
<szubaark_> <-- thinks coolweb just went Long 100+ contracts on ES
<NihabaAshi> I know many Emini traders doing some "serious" size per trade...

But none via "accumulation".

Meant as in "retail traders".16:00
<coolweb> speaking of accumaltion...
<NihabaAshi> Usually only the big guys can do the accumulation stuff.
<coolweb> niha, I have the perfect plan for the accumalation in the near future,
basically its a stacking process
here I'll tell you guys, its pretty simple actually16:01
lets say you are in the start of the trend (you need to know if you are in one)
so each day, if you see any long entries, you go long maybe 10 contracts, take 3 contracts first PT , 3 contracts rise, and rest 3 , keep on your accumalation, or any sort of in betweens16:02
then everyday from that day, every long you keep on doing the same
so you always have some in the back, and forward contracts working for you
so maybe you are in the start of the trend like last week , you kept on longing and accumalating, proably got like 20 contracts long by now in the back and + 300 points YM for each along with your forward contracts making profits16:03
get the best of both worlds :)
like espically if you notice you are at the start of the trend, up your size and put on more contracts to accumlate, same risk method and all16:04
<NihabaAshi> Coolweb...that works but only certain times of the year when you know the market stats.

For example...

Since 1990 the S&P closes higher by Nov 14th in comparison to its Oct 28th...closes much higher.16:05

Never a losing period since 1990.

That's when those "accumulation" trades works.16:06
<coolweb> yes
niha
ITs november 23rd
you tell us @ november 23rd!
:D
<NihabaAshi> Anytime elsewhere in the year without knowing the stats can be a killer.
<coolweb> well it won't be killer per se16:07
all positions will be set at breakeven
of course
where you enter
<NihabaAshi> Between Nov 14th - Nov 23rd...market still moving higher...just with a little more risk.
<coolweb> at different breakeven levels
<NihabaAshi> That risk increases by years end although still moving higher.16:08
<coolweb> yes
most definately records meant to be broken
<NihabaAshi> Then again...higher the risk is when the big money is made :)16:09
<coolweb> although you know niha, I don't base going short or long on that methods, sort of like you can base it using daytrade methods, basically I believe the biggest reason why we are sprouting up non-stop is because we have no resistance
since like Last week friday
no reason for any instituions to sell
I'm sure you know that already, but yeah I base my long term bets based on things like that, any resistance? where resistance? how far till resistance? go bullish there, go bullish on first 1-2 days lowest risk16:10
<NihabaAshi> If I'm gonna swing trade...I would rather do it in the Treasuries, EuroFX and look at the Eminis as a last resort for those rare times of the year when its hard to lose.16:12
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.
<coolweb> niha: eurofx trends better eh?

definately nihas, thats defiantely a better idea :)
<NihabaAshi> EuroFX has an easier time getting to profit targets than the Eminis.16:13
<coolweb> nihaba: btw its interesting you mention you like volatility , I'm just coding something right now, and its usually looking for low volatility :) got this "volatility std dev" indicator16:14
<NihabaAshi> I prefer "high" volatility.
<szubaark_>  Exited all YM Long @ 10940 --> - 12
<NihabaAshi> Gives me a chance to recover fast from a bad trade.16:15
I can't do that in low volatility environments.
<coolweb> niha: I backtested , 9:30 is a money point to watch for sure.. , 0:00 It doesn't look that great

what some other market openins in EST time? I'll backtest those if you know

nihabaashi: interesting I see16:16
<NihabaAshi> Treauries trade actively around 0930am est
<coolweb> I'm pretty sure I can trade eurodollar with a 2 pip stop 100%16:17

trends insanely nicely16:18

Niha: good recommendation

i'm ghoing to be longing eurodollar niha16:35

i'll post when
<jbraswell314> well, in terms of long-term resistance, I'd look at the 61.8 line off of the 2000 decline as resistance16:39
<coolweb> jbraswell: eurodollar?

eurofx

I mean
<jbraswell314> oh, no, I meant the US indexes16:41
have barely looked at the euro or eurodollar
<togglex> does anyone here trade the dax?16:43
<coolweb> what time is the dax?16:47
toggle: btw all products are basically the same, I'm just looking for more opportunties using my original methods..
LONG EIURO16:49
gr
r
shoudld be 1.1835 , damn euro plauying games with me16:50
<NihabaAshi> Togglex...I trade the DAX.
<coolweb> watch it breakout now16:51
<NihabaAshi> Haven't done it recently due to a time schedule problem here at home.

Will go back trading the DAX and EuroFX fulltime soon.
<togglex> yeah it is odd hours for north americans
<coolweb> oh well, always tomorrow for my euro trades16:52

long euro 1.183816:57

more riskier trade

so small , 1 lot :D we test

hehe

stop 1.1836 , never shall it touch 1.1836 under no circumstances :)16:58

ok stopped out 1.1835 , no money train today :D17:00
<jbraswell314> cool, i have to ask why you use 1-tick stops?17:05
<coolweb> thats all you need to know if you are right at the exact moment and second17:08
<WannaBeBOS> randomness will take you out though17:09
<NihabaAshi> Just finish with my Market Wrap Journal...
<WannaBeBOS> cant be perfect...
<NihabaAshi> I won't be trading Friday but will be logged in as _away to log the trade posts and conversations.17:10
<WannaBeBOS> i wont trade either17:11
but will be here
<NihabaAshi> All have a good Thanksgiving and try hard not to trade with a hangover or indigestion on Friday...not fun.
<coolweb> WannaBeBos: oh.. there is very little randomness in the market sometimes..
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<coolweb> Niha: happy thanks giving!
did eurodollar just close?17:12
am I the only retard who traded 3 minutes before the close and expect it to rally
hahahhaaha17:13
* coolweb cries
<coolweb> thank god I got stopped out, I wouldn't want to hold eurodollar overnight without a good cushion17:16
<WannaBeBOS> i would have believed that long ago, but not anymore cool17:21
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.17:24
* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Nov 23 17:40:50 200517:31