#FuturesTrades November 18th Thursday 2006 Trade Log
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ER2 EuroFX EC +15.00 +0.0000 $1,500.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
The profits today do not show what really occurred today.
Simply, I made a huge order entry error (Long when I wanted to be Short) and took a big loss.
In addition, to get back into the correct direction (down)...I had to push some size plus additional contracts to compensate for the huge error.
See log below for more information about what happened.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Wed Nov 22 09:30:32 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:30 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm * NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi <wizardofrijnsaterwou> gm all 09:34 <NihabaAshi> Good morning <ItalianSharp> morning niha <pat255> gm niha & others <ItalianSharp> morning everyone 09:35 <Brutus> 1000/1500 Nov University Of Michigan Consumer 09:36 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.90 -> large size 09:37 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1822.25 «« paper »» 09:40 <NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 797.10 --> + 1.2 <szubaark> if this WRB retraces im toast 09:41 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.20 --> + 0.3 I expected more follow through to the upside...the little retracement spooked me a little :( 09:42 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <szubaark> c'mon one more push uppp <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 796.40 -> small size 09:45 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1816.50 --> - 5.75 «« paper »» 09:48 :(( Shorts NQ @ 1816.50 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> If NQ drops...it will take ER2 with it. Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 795.60 --> + 0.8 09:50 <szubaark> i was looking for more upside followthru, WRONG <pat255> well read niha <NihabaAshi> We have a 10am est and a 1030am est key economic report release. 09:51 The volatility is already extremely low :( Hopefully those reports increases the volatility level. 09:52 ER2 is looking for my stop :( 09:53 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 796.10 --> + 0.3 09:54 <PapaJon> yes.. i heard it mumbling... "where are you .. niha" 09:55 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 795.50 -> small size <szubaark> go NQ! 09:56 exit stop set NQ @ 1816.50 «« paper »» 09:57 <NihabaAshi> Volatility now dropping alot :( 09:58 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:59 <les> Long ER2 @ 795.9 10:00 Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.4 --> + 0.5 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 749.90 -> Add 10:02 Shorts ER2 @ 795.40 -> Add 10:03 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 794.7 10:04 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1810 --> + 6.5 «« paper »» 10:07 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 794.50 --> + 1.9 Still holding some <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 794.2 --> + 0.5 <szubaark> Im not happy with my First trade.. as i entered Long on High of that WRB :)) 10:08 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 794.60 --> + 0.9 10:09 Holding a few contracts <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 793.4 «« paper »» 10:10 <szubaark> Nice Niha.. u caught that quick, sudden upmove and now this quick Drop <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 793.00 --> + 2.5 10:11 Holding 1 contract szu...I have a losing trade in between that initial Long and then the two Shorts... 10:12 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 793 -> Add «« paper »» 10:13 <NihabaAshi> The trade was not posted because it was an order entry error in that I thought I was Short when I was Long... <les> Shorts ER2 @ 792.7 10:14 <NihabaAshi> Reason why as soon as I figure out something was wrong...I quickly reversed the Long into a Short and then started adding to the Short to bring it to a full position plus a few extra contracts to compensate for the "huge mental error" (wrong order entry). This is my last trade today and its something I always do... Call it quits when I do an order entry error. 10:15 Sponsor: <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 792.1 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Mistakes like that are unexceptable!!! <WannaBeBOS> but they do happen <szubaark> Niha i saw your Order entry platform.. looks like something out of Star trek :) 10:16 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.6 --> + 1.1 <NihabaAshi> Yes...but I stop trading for the day especially if I'm profitable and don't want to make that mistake again to put me in the red. I got some nice profits now...will bank them and call it quits. Still holding the remainder Short contract. 10:17 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1807 «« paper »» <pat255> vn <ItalianSharp> niha, are you going to be trading on friday? or call it a week and enjoy the long weekend? <NihabaAshi> Not sure...the trading day after Thanksgiving is usually a tough one for me. If I do trade...it will be via "one contract only". 10:18 <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1807 «« paper »» 10:19 <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.1 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» <yo> reboot 10:21 <RussellDaytrade> setup target 796 in 36 from low if breaks low with gusto, targets will reset lower with different time frames. 10:22 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1809.50 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» dug myself out of hole and now in Profits.. 10:23 <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.4 --> + 1.3 «« paper »» 10:24 * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:26 <NihabaAshi> Hi codehead...welcome back. 10:31 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 792.6 -> Add «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 792.70 --> + 2.8 <RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.2 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:32 <NihabaAshi> I'm done for the day after a near disaster from the order entry error. <RussellDaytrade> actually, that was a hlf, had two open, sold one. Exited all ER2 Long @ 799.9 --> + 7.8 «« paper »» 10:47 Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.9 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» <les> its go time for me now 10:50 <szubaark> bye les and welcome back <les> might be back friday, morel likely monday thx szu :) <codehead> QM trying to hold up around 59, after inventory report 10:53 <RussellDaytrade> time expiration expired on that setup about five minutes ago. 10:54 <Brutus> Is this what bullish pre thanksgiving holiday is meant to look like? :( <RussellDaytrade> yes, they start the day gathering shares at lower prices, and work them up into the close. think; happy ending. 10:55 <codehead> ya, i agree--that's the usual 10:56 most people who are going to sell before holiday and haven't already, do i early and hit the road 10:58 "do it before..." <RussellDaytrade> perhaps someone can provide some statistics on this brut, (like from Stock Traders Almanac, etc), but it is my impression that the Friday following Thxgiving is usually also a mildly up session, on the back of soem good rumblings from retail analysts, feel good post thxgving, shooping buzz, and so on. 10:59 <codehead> i mean "do it early" fridays usually up, ya <Brutus> Yes RD, but NQ after hitting yest low, its the only one ramping <codehead> just happy retailers trading <RussellDaytrade> dell effect? anyone got a Stock Tarders Almanac handy? 11:00 <NihabaAshi> I have an old one in storage. 11:01 I think Meant...I think every futures trader should own a "Stock Traders Almanac" to learn about some basic "market seasonal tendencies". 11:02 <Brutus> RD http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread .php?s=&threadid=81123 <NihabaAshi> Then once you understand its usefulness...you can then find a data provider with a ton of historical intraday data and develop your own customize Futures Almanac sort'uv speak. 11:03 For example...October through mid November is STRONGLY bullish and one of the best times of the year to increase your position size and/or to do Swing Trades or Position Trades (Long positions). 11:04 After mid November...volatility dies down quickly until December shopping season kicks into full. After mid-November...good time to drop the size, decrease the number of trades, shorten the trading day et cetera until the volatility picks up again well into December. 11:06 Useful info especially if your planning vacations and don't want to be off from the markets during the worst times of the year...when trades have high probability chance for profits. 11:07 <RussellDaytrade> nice chart. brut, in general, i think a good thing to keep in mind, is that a selloff to one degree or another (usually shallow) is to be expected, that helps to set up a rally, (usually also minor), pre-holiday sessions. 11:08 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:11 <Brutus> YEs RD but volume was a bit above my expectation 11:12 <yvberj> Went long @ 793.8 been basically sideways since. I'm out. Vol. has dried up. 11:32 Now that I'm out it shld. start moving. 11:33 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 792.5 «« paper »» 11:56 <Brutus> How about a short NQ, long ER Arb trade? 11:57 <NihabaAshi> Not many traders can do that because they need to adjust the size for NQ compared to ER2 accordingly. 12:12 Also, I prefer those types of ARB trades via matching a non-volatile trading instrument with a volatile trading instrument. 12:13 Example, ER2 with DJ EuroStoxx50 12:14 Or even ER2 with ES. 12:15 <Brutus> OK, it was on the divergence at the time. <NihabaAshi> It's a tough type of trading and requires a special type of trading execution platform to make it as efficient as possible. 12:16 A type of trading platform I don't have. <RussellDaytrade> it seems to me that both those also trade virtually lockstep, just to a little less degree, ie, NQ slightly less volatile then ER, on a percentage basis 12:19 that slight degree sure is notable though, on a per contract basis in a futures trade! 12:20 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:23 <RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.4 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 12:24 likely just a retest, didn't feel strong in resolve. 12:25 Long ER2 @ 793.5 «« paper »» 12:40 <Brutus> RD 793.5? 12:42 <RussellDaytrade> thx, 792.5 Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:43 Long ER2 @ 792.5 «« paper »» been tradingf around that area so long, both values are seeming the same! <Brutus> ER order book has about 500 on the 5 level bid 200 Ask 12:46 <RussellDaytrade> you got L2 data feed on er? 12:47 <Brutus> YEs <RussellDaytrade> how about dynamic Time and Sales? <Brutus> Yes <RussellDaytrade> you use that T&S in a manner similar to Niha? that is to denote trade activity accelerating/building, slowing, etc? 12:49 <Brutus> These are the basics with most chart vendors right? Sometimes 12:50 <RussellDaytrade> IB , t&s are snapshots. L2 is additional sub fee. <Brutus> I do not have a defined method with TS But sometimes you can see activity building before a program buy 12:51 <RussellDaytrade> i think Niha's got a terrific feel for that. <Brutus> Yes 12:52 Some filter on large block trades 12:53 <RussellDaytrade> yep, a filter likely helps to focus on the real moves developing. <Brutus> There are many fakes they use 12:54 I know of some that I sometimes use <RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.1 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» wanting to hold out for a fuller move, they seem slower in happening today, or something. 12:55 <Brutus> On a different note, do you guys have turkey for Christmas as well? 12:58 <RussellDaytrade> not i. not the custom. whats the favorite in Australia? 12:59 <Brutus> No thanks giving here, but turkey for xmas 13:00 <RussellDaytrade> hams are a favorite for xmas here. 13:01 Long ER2 @ 793 «« paper »» 13:06 volume at a trickle, thinking it may spike up (vol), and take price with it <Brutus> Slow ramp till MOC ? 13:08 <RussellDaytrade> i think there's another hour left today, may lift a minor amount ?? perhaps just enought to be in the positve. markets close early today. 13:10 <Brutus> No, Friday right? <RussellDaytrade> today, i think, correct me if i'm wrong. i think friday is al day trade. 13:11 <Brutus> Wednesday 1400/1900 Bond markets close early ahead of 13:15 Thanksgiving holiday Friday 1400/1900 Bond markets close early 13:16 But CME has index futs close earle on Friday onle only <RussellDaytrade> closing the futures and leaving stocks open? that sounds unusual. 13:17 <Brutus> My mistake CME has today and friday as a full day 13:24 <RussellDaytrade> brut, lets watch this dynamic. I belief, as much as anything, that the reason(s) behind the holiday(s) trading dynamic (close higher) is the 'sentimentality' of the specialists, etc. lets see if they come thru this time. i state to call attention to it, that in the future, you may see if you make a similar distinction as i. 13:25 you are correct, stock exchange closes early on Friday, at 1:00pm et. info at nyse.com 13:30 Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.9 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» Sponsor: <codehead> nice QM pop 13:31 didn't buy Qm today, but did manage to get USo a cent off lod <Brutus> Yes I was correct :) On Cme I clicked on thanksgiving 2007 13:35 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 13:57 <yvberj> Falling asleep again this aft. I'm gone have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 14:47 <yo> gn all 15:25 <Brutus> Cul8r have a good TG 15:28 <wizardofrijnsaterwou> good night all 15:50 <RussellDaytrade> have a good Thanksgiving all. 15:56 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:59 <NihabaAshi_away> Take care all and have a good safe holiday. 16:22 * DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Nov 22 16:22:21 2006
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