#FuturesTrades November 21st Tuesday 2006 Trade Log
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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.
Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +10.60 +0.0000 $1060.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
So far its paying off via sticking to the trading plan of trading only the first 1 1/2 hours of trading.
However, I did modify that plan a few days into November to trade more large size positions in the first hour of trading because its one of the few times I will get for pattern signals without losing my patience by the afternoon trading session.
Another way to look at November is that if your an impatient trader...November will be a very difficult month of trading for you.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Tue Nov 21 09:31:43 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now talking in #futurestrades 09:31 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <pat255> gm all... <asuni> gm pat, gm niha, gm all 09:32 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 793.50 -> large size 09:33 Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 792.50 --> + 1 09:35 <pat255> good start niha 09:36 <NihabaAshi> I have a Bearish Bias for the open only. 09:37 <yvberj> G.M everyone. Been a bit hectic around here. Hope I can sit here and concentrate today. 09:39 <NihabaAshi> :( 09:40 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 793.30 --> + 0.2 trailing stop hit Reminder: We have a FED speech today around 10am est. 09:41 Shorts ER2 @ 791.60 -> small size 09:42 Shorts ER2 @ 792.00 -> Add Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 791.30 --> + 0.7 09:43 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 791.50 --> + 0.1 09:44 If I have a bias and I get stopped out of my trade and then it suddenly reverses again with volatility into the direction of my bias and prior trade... 09:45 I jump back on quickly to try and capture a few ticks. Yet, via a reduced position size because the trade is obviously an "emotional trade" even though its in the direction of my analysis. 09:46 I now have a neutral bias...will trade for the remainder of the day via a reduced position size. 09:48 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1812.25 «« paper »» 09:49 exit stop set NQ @ 1812.25 «« paper »» 09:50 Covered all Short NQ at 1812.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:51 :(( too tight <Brutus> GOOG above 500 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1811.59 «« paper »» 09:53 Shorts NQ @ 1811.50 «« paper »» 09:54 Covered all Short NQ at 1810.25 --> + 1.25 «« paper »» 09:55 <NihabaAshi> I'm switching to simulator trades for the remainder of the trading day...I just decided to test something new. 09:56 <pat255> might as well in this chop... <szubaark> choppy opening PLUS i got family distractions and cant concentrate so i will call it quits early. 09:57 <pat255> later szu ..have a good one <NihabaAshi> Exactly, the volatility is currently at a level that makes trading very difficult for me. Figure its a good time to try some new stuff that's designed for declining volatity price action. * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away <RussellDaytrade> Niha, how is it that you measure or denote/detect volatility? 09:58 Long ER2 @ 790.8 «« paper »» 10:00 <NihabaAshi> Several ways: Pace of the prints in Times & Sales, interval difference on the chart between the interval Open and Close - small equals declining volatilty and I look at market season tendencies (ex. Novemember is a low volatility month). 10:01 Clarification: Declining volatility shows up on the chart when I see consecutive small intervals (small ranges) and increasing volatility I will see an increase in the range between open and close along with a faster pace in the prints in Times & Sales. 10:02 I also look at key economic report release time to know when volatility has a high probability of showing up. 10:04 <RussellDaytrade> thx, i like that t&s 'clock', or pacemeter. <NihabaAshi> Example...right now there's a FED speech and I'm expecting some volatility to show up in the next few minutes... 10:05 <RussellDaytrade> just set one up, but it is not dynamic on IB. <NihabaAshi> Especially when the prior few minutes the volatilty had been declining as if the institutional traders are waiting for some info (FED speech). 10:06 <RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:07 Long ER2 @ 791 «« paper »» 10:08 maybe it goes this time. the stops at 790 were hit late in the day yesterday, so there may not be enough stop there just yet to warrant going thru 790, just yet. 10:12 Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.9 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» 10:15 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:17 <pdays> Shorts YM @ 12346 10:19 Covered all YM Short @ 12351 --> - 5 10:22 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 791.8 «« paper »» 10:43 <yvberj> Sht ER793.6 covered 791.9 10:45 <RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:49 <Brutus> YM broke yest low 10:50 ER 790 next RD ? 10:51 <RussellDaytrade> don't know, brut, crystal ball not as clear right now. what do you think?. it doesn't feel like it got the downside punch, to me. 10:53 <jperl> ER2 has been oscillating around yesterdays VWAP 792.15 since 10:40 <Brutus> Yeah narrow range chop day, with a run at 790 some time 10:55 <RussellDaytrade> short trendline support across the past 2.5 days bottoms, (use a little artistic license), and price is near that line now, more or less, if breaks with gusto, it may denote a relative change of trend to the downside, which would likely break that 790. <Brutus> looks like the big boys have gone on holiday. 11:04 No volume <jperl> It's just you alone Bru 11:05 <Brutus> Drift up the rest of the day? <RussellDaytrade> i want a dynamic time and sales display for xmas. 11:07 and vwap capabilty. Long ER2 @ 790.3 «« paper »» 11:15 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 790.50 -> small size «« simulator »» <RussellDaytrade> i expect it to break, and will scale in wide scales 11:16 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 790.00 --> + 0.5 «« simulator »» Exited the trade because volatility just died. <yvberj> Missed that one. That's what happens when you don't pay attention. <jperl> Next pause at 1 week VWAP 789.25 <NihabaAshi> Died after the initial volatility spike down. <RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 790.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 11:29 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <RussellDaytrade> may not have gotten filled on that at .8, jumped the gun on hitting the enter key 11:30 Exited all ER2 Long @ 790.7 --> + 0.4 «« paper »» 11:31 possible retest to 790 11:32 model setup to 793.6, in approx another 30. just broke trendline support, etc, full setup may be dampened. 11:34 <les> Long ER2 @ 790.5 11:36 <pat255> hi les ...welcome back <les> hi there 11:37 Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.2 --> + 0.7 11:40 thats it for openers lotsa stuff to do since my return, so no more today 11:41 Sponsor: <pat255> vn les ...to get soemthing in this dead mkt <les> thx but... watching whales in Cape Town was much nicer :))) <pat255> I bet... 11:42 <les> http://www.carlin.karoo.net/Charts/whale out.jpg 11:43 caught this guy just as it was jumping out the water 11:44 looed about 50 foot long looked <pat255> wow nice ... <les> i was enjoying lunch at the harbour there, when in come these 2 Southern Rights 11:45 start playing around at the harbour mouth actually, that was about 100 miles up the coast from CT, but what the hell was a great sight anyway 11:47 <pat255> looks pretty good.. 11:48 <les> actaully, the town there used to be a real dump <NihabaAshi> Nice image Les <les> thx i gonna show u one more if u'll bear with me 11:57 right opposite the bay.. found this incredible totally isolated beach 11:58 went cos i was told there was an excavation of a bushman cave happening there http://www.carlin.karoo.net/Charts/DSCF0 104.JPG couldnt find the excavation, but saw some other bushman caves 11:59 beach went on for miles, no-one araound well, just my wife, who did the modelling there :) <pat255> vn les ...cape town big city? 12:03 <les> bout 2M nowadays 12:04 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 793.5 «« paper »» 12:06 <pat255> good size ...wondering why beaches empty.. <les> there r so many beaches 12:07 <RussellDaytrade> well i'll be! that target hit right on the button. <les> http://www.tropicalisland.de/travel_sout h_africa_cape_town.html 12:08 that page will give u some idea of the town, sea n mountain around the first pic on the left... 12:10 the aircraft is about directly over robben island, where mandela was imprisoned 12:11 the island is 3 miles from my mother's apartment on the mainland, line of sight <pat255> nice ..pics les 12:12 <les> that place is so photogenic i hardly ever take bad pics there place is now full of movie makres and ad makers tey say the quality of light is very good for movies etc 12:13 <pat255> looks very interesting ...place no wars ...lol <les> oh yes there r lotsa crime gangs n stuff <pat255> hmmm ...:( <les> but its still pretty safe <pat255> that sucks ... <les> just havta avoid the dodgy areas 12:14 <pat255> yeah i gues just like any other place ... <les> if u like sea sports, like fishing skin-diving or swimming with sharks... then thats the place for sure just for the record.... 12:15 i was born under that mountain :) bbiam 12:16 <pat255> u from that area...nice <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 793.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:19 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 794.00 -> small size «« simulator »» 12:21 Long ER2 @ 793.90 -> Add «« simulator »» 12:24 Volatility is declining...almost at a level for a volatility spike. 12:25 Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 794.30 --> + 0.4 «« simulator »» 12:28 That's a +0.40 and a +0.30, still holding contract. 12:29 <les> back 12:30 other duties call so cya all tomorrow <NihabaAshi> Still no volatility spike and it is the dead zone of the trading day...I need to be careful with my volatility analysis in this time period (too many false info). 12:31 :( 12:34 Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.10 --> + 0.1 «« simulator »» 12:35 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch 12:36 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:41 <RussellDaytrade> model setup target from 795 at 11:17(mnt) to 791.6 within 12:17, +/-. tarde target (appprox 1.5 bucks) has already fulfilled, and that is usually the highest probability portion of the overall setup 13:38 <RussellDaytrade> one more quick spike down will satisfy that setup very nicely, but, i think that 792.5 just now was it. 14:25 may have a new target working here, up 3.6 in 36 from that low just now, would place it at new highs for day at approx 796. 14:30 there is likley enough stops above 795 by now, (2 days worth, or more), that a breach of 795, with gusto, should carry up another buck or more above, perhaps more if it builds into a 'mini-trend'. 14:57 seems like the time is right for a 'surprise attack/ambush'. Sponsor: <pat255> yeah u never know ... 15:01 tuff to tarde this mess.. <yvberj> This has become a boring aft. The entire range since 12:30 has been 2.5 pts. 15:04 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:05 <RussellDaytrade> reminds me of that saying, 'if you don't like the weather, come back in twenty minutes'. 15:06 <yvberj> That's right. But I went out for over an hour & it got worse. 15:07 <pat255> k guys c u all am...ty <RussellDaytrade> looks like that run above 795 is being saved as fuel for tomorrow. 15:35 <yvberj> I've had it. See you all tomorrow. 15:38 <yo> gn all 16:04 <NihabaAshi_lunch> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:14 * NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi_away <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) * DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Nov 21 16:42:10 2006 16:42
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