Session Start: Mon Nov 14 09:33:28 2005Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:33
<X> [NihabaAshi] Password, trade post script, trader profiles and trade journals are posted ONLY at the discussion forum at http://p207.ezboard.com/bthestrategylab
<mispe>  Long YM @ 10699 09:36
<jbraswell> today marks the end of niha's infamous bullishness!09:38
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 668.60 -> small size 09:39

 Shorts ER2 @ 668.00 -> Add

Today Nov 14th Monday is the last day I have a "strong bullish bias" in the market.09:41
<mispe> the last day of the year ?09:43
<NihabaAshi> Yep

I may be bullish for a few days in December but nothing like the "strong" bullish bias I had for the past few weeks.09:44
<mispe> it's waht you see in the graph or other fundamental info ?09:45
Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 1703 --> - 8996
<szubaark_> Niha mentioned something about "seasonal" we are bullish in Oct
<mispe> 10703 ...+4
<NihabaAshi> mispe...I've been talking about this for many weeks...its pure statistics about the S&P 500 never having a losing period when comparing the closing price on Nov 14th to the opening price on Oct 28th...09:46

Never a losing period since 1990.
<mispe>  Exited Remainder YM Long @ 10708 --> + 9 09:47
<NihabaAshi> It's one of the biggest periods for institutions to go Long.
<szubaark_> aha.
<NihabaAshi> Easy money if you want to call it that.
<mispe> ok interesting
<NihabaAshi> It's nothing new...most retail traders ignore it or try to day trade it instead of swing trading it.09:48
<szubaark_>  Long YM @ 10712 09:50
<danaway>  Shorts YM @ 10707 «« paper »» 09:54
<mispe>  Long YM @ 10702 09:56
Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 10707 --> + 5 09:57
* danaway is now known as danshirley
<danshirley>  Covered all YM Short @ 10707 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:58
<mispe>  Exited Remainder YM Long @ 10707 --> + 5
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 667.80 --> + 0.2 10:03
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 668.50 10:05
<mispe>  Shorts YM @ 10708 10:06
<szubaark_> No Econ reports so dont expect much followthru10:07
<mispe>  Covered all YM Short @ 10710 --> - 2 10:10
<danshirley> Greenspan talking10:12
<szubaark_> ohh great10:14
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 668.20 --> + 0.4
<szubaark_>  Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 10723 --> + 11 10:15
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 668.2 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 668.80 -> large size
<szubaark_> Euro in a downtrend10:17
<mispe>  Shorts YM @ 10723 10:18
<danshirley> good time for a european vacation
<mispe> good they burn you car !10:19
<danshirley> christmass in Paris :-)
<mispe> with fireworks !
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.
<danshirley> I once spent christmass in Paris ..it was great...15 years ago10:20
<mispe> good old time !
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 667.70 --> - 1.1

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 667.70
<jperl> ER2 VWAP bands less than 6 ticks wide....10:21
tough to trade
<szubaark_> Niha always mentions that when there is NO ECONOMIC reports dont expect followthru.10:22
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 668.8 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:23
<danshirley>  Shorts YM @ 10719 «« paper »»
<mispe>  Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 10719 --> + 4
Covered all YM Short @ 10718 --> + 5 10:24
<jbraswell>  Shorts ES @ 1238.50
<danshirley>  Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 10712 --> + 7 «« paper »» 10:25
exit stop moved to breakeven YM @ 10719 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> Got some major data problems here...will be my last trade of the day most likely unless my ISP gets their act together...10:26

It's already cost me some lost points in my first trade and a lost in my second trade.
<jbraswell> geez. you ought to just switch to dial up, niha10:27
<mispe>  Long YM @ 10710 10:28
<NihabaAshi> Can't...need to keep the phone line free...rather just get profitable for the day and call it quits.
Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 666.00 --> + 1.7 10:29
Profitable for the day now..got a stop in on the remainders and will just leave it alone.10:30
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 667.50 10:31
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<danshirley>  Covered Remainder YM Short @ 10710 --> + 9 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi_away> Be back later...will post late trade result of my remainders if stop is hit upon my return.10:32
<mispe>  Exited all YM Long @ 10713 --> + 3
<szubaark_> frikin 1 point range on ES since opening10:34
<mispe>  Shorts YM @ 10711 10:51
Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 10706 --> + 5 10:57
Covered Remainder YM Short @ 10704 --> + 7
<jbraswell>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1236.75 --> + 1.75 11:00
<mispe>  Long YM @ 10703
Exited all YM Long @ 10703 --> 0 11:08
<jbraswell>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1237.50 --> + 1 11:14

 Long ER2 @ 667

Exited all ER2 Long @ 667.50 --> + 0.5

er2 trade was earlier, didn't post cuz was still short es11:15
<szubaark_>  Long YM @ 10705
<jbraswell>  Long ER2 @ 666.40 11:18
<danshirley> GOOG looking at $40011:20
<mispe>  Shorts YM @ 10710 11:21

 Covered all YM Short @ 10711 --> - 1 11:28
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.
<szubaark_>  Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 10712 --> + 7 11:30
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1237 11:31
<szubaark_> YM only one made Higher Low
<jbraswell>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 665.40 --> - 1 11:39
<danshirley> eurpean mrkts are flat after closing gap up11:43
<szubaark_>  Exited all YM Long @ 10704 --> - 1 11:50
Shorts YM @ 10705
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1236 --> - 1 11:52
<danshirley> European markets closed little changed Monday after sideways trading, as higher crude translated into a boost for oil corporates and investors digested some deal news.11:54
<jbraswell>  Long ER2 @ 665.30 12:04

 Exited all ER2 Long @ 665.50 --> + 0.2 12:21
<jperl>  Long ER2 @ 665.80 12:32
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.12:40
<jperl>  Exited ER2 Long @ 665.70 --> - 0.1 12:46
<jbraswell> bouncing back off one of the SD lines, j?12:47
<jperl> yes...bounced back to -1st SD of VWAP12:48
took the trade as it passed through initially....
but it didn't hold
probably should enter long here again at the -1st SDev12:49
however POC is just above it12:51
<jbraswell> gotcha
<jperl> see chart12:52
<jbraswell> you find those obey the traditional s/r role reversal?
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-11-14/JP ERL_012.png
yes they do...12:53
I really don't like the designation support/reversal
it gives the wrong impression...about what the lines do
They are simply test points where the market stalls for a moment12:54
support/resistance designation gives the impression that...
market will bounce there...12:55
but that is not the case
rather the market stops moving there to catch its breath...12:56
before moving on or reversing
AT the band lines....12:58
I begin to watch all the little jiggles on a tick chart...
to decide which way the market will break out12:59
so now we've stopped again at the -2nd StDev13:02
<szubaark_> YM had a nice "Wedge formation" and breakout was to the downside so we should start continue down

dang, Niha still Short ER2.13:06
<jbraswell>  Long ES @ 1235.25 13:14
<danshirley>  Long YM @ 10702 «« paper »» 13:15
<szubaark_>  Covered all YM Short @ 10703 --> + 2
Long YM @ 10704
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi13:20
<NihabaAshi> late post...
<danshirley>  Exited all YM Long @ 10702 --> 0 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 667.50 --> + 0.2
<danshirley>  Shorts YM @ 10698 «« paper »» 13:23

this market is like a wet noodle13:28

no momentum
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 664.60 -> large size
<szubaark_> this 10700 Level tough cookie13:30
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 663.80 --> - 0.8 13:31
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 663.80
Shorts ER2 @ 663.60 -> Add
<jperl> testing ER2 -2nd STdDEv 663.6013:32
<NihabaAshi> ER2 bouncing against its own WRBs :(13:34
<danshirley>  Covered all YM Short @ 10700 --> - 2 «« paper »» 13:35
<NihabaAshi> I'm looking for at least a 663.00 before it decides to take out (retrace back up) that prior dark WRB.
<szubaark_> we are right at the open for YM13:36
<danshirley> evening star forming on daily NQ13:40
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 664.80 --> - 1 13:43

 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 664.80
<szubaark_> Looks like bottom is in?13:44
<jperl> ER2 testing -1st StDEv @ 664.90
<NihabaAshi> Unbelievable...that's 5 WRBs in a roll that ER2 has made and then retraced back against...13:46
All I need to do is catch one...just one...where's there is follow-through to a pt2.
<szubaark_>  Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 10716 --> + 12 13:47
<jbraswell>  Exited all ES Long @ 1235.75 --> + 0.5 13:48
<jperl> testing -1st SD again 664.9013:49
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1236.50 13:52
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 665.10 --> + 1.8
Incorrect math by the trade post script...13:53
Should be +0.30
<szubaark_> Ym looks like Double Bottom.. High possible target on my Runner13:54

5 minute
<NihabaAshi> Decided it was best to dump it because I think ER2 will make it 6x in a roll where it retraces back against a WRB.13:55
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1237 -> Add 13:56
<NihabaAshi> Volatility is gone again...13:58
Be back later if/when it re-appears again.
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away13:59
<danshirley> Platinum near 26 year high
:-)14:00
<togglex> are they blaming china for that? :)14:01
<danshirley> Idont know...does china use a lot of platinum?14:02
<jperl> what's the all time high for Pt?
<danshirley> Its at 976/oz twice gold14:03
<jperl> Has it been higher?14:04
<togglex> they're being blamed for a lot of commodity demand
i can't imagine platinum would be too different
<danshirley> On my graph Platinum closed the highest its ever been..but I only have 5 years of data14:08
<jperl> k
was wondering what Pt was when gold was at 800/oz14:09
<szubaark_>  Exited all YM Long @ 10715 --> + 11 14:10
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1236 --> + 1 14:11
Covered ES Short @ 1236 --> + 0.5 14:14
Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1236
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi14:17
<danshirley> Platinum is "headed much higher ($2000+) due to deliberate worldwide central banks paper currency destruction and Indian and Chinese demand," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter.14:19
Gold fails to hold $470; copper
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 665.20 -> large size 14:36

ER2 retraced that prior WRB via "creeping" back upwards without any buy signals until it did a breakout above the prior WRB.14:37

:(

These WRB Breakouts use to be good for some points...14:38

Been holding out for such and getting losers after they only go my way for some "ticks".
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1236 --> 0
<jperl> ER2 has not returned to the VWAP since 10:15 this morning14:40

VWAP 666.2014:41

It's made 5 attempts
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1236 14:52
<szubaark_> my EMA is getting FLAT.. im standing aside14:54
<togglex> anyone ever feel like the decisions are coming 5 seconds too late?14:59
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.15:01
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1234.75 --> - 1.25 15:13
<danshirley> theres a wrb....short or fade?

:-)
<jperl> testing -2nd StDEv 662.7015:14
<danshirley> Ich bin clueles at this point
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1235 15:15
last trade for me ..getting sucked into it !15:16
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-11-14/JP ERL_014.png15:17
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1236 --> + 1 15:25
<jperl> ER2 testing -1st StDdev 664.20
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 663.80 -> Add 15:30
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1237 --> + 2 15:36
<jperl> touching POC 66515:38
<eminitrader>  poc ?15:39
<jperl> Point of Control on the Volume Histogram....
peak in the volume distribution
<eminitrader> k thx jper
<jperl> see chart15:40
http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-11-14/JP ERL_015.png
it's the straight red line running across the chart15:41
<eminitrader> looks frightening..colr combo's lines hills and all :)))15:42

jper if u dont mind answering does it help u much on a consistant regular basis15:43
<jperl> yes...it's the only thing I use
<eminitrader> wow
<jperl> why wow?15:44
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1236.25 --> + 1.25

late post

prob cause i dont understand ur chart and can't figure out how it generates or indicates a set-up15:46
<jperl> Well for starters...
I only take entries at the VWAP band points...15:47
I'm usually biased short if price below VWAP and long...
if price above VWAP...15:48
<eminitrader> just for my understanding what r the vwap band pts on the chart u posted. is it the 668.90 and 664.9
<jperl> VWAP is the blue line on the chart15:49
<eminitrader> is it a single line or a band ?
<jperl> VWAP is a single line...the light blue line
<eminitrader> got it thx
<jperl> 1st STd DEv are the green lines...
2nd StDev are the red lines15:50
Sorry...
<eminitrader> so as per this chart a break thru the vwap line indicates a change in trend ?
<jperl> 1st and 2nd Std DEv for a long are the green lines
1st and 2nd ST DEv for a short are red lines...15:51
Well maybe emini...
If it breaks through and goes to the 1st StdDev...then yes
The rest of the stuff you see on the left hand side of the...15:52
chart is the volume histogram
<eminitrader> got it jper thx for the quick tutorial..and one last one how do u pinpoint or decide on the entry point is it a mrkt or limit order thx
<jperl> Usually mrkt order15:53
<eminitrader> k so u mostly go with the breakout of the std dev ..15:54
<jperl> Yes....15:55
but I watch the jiggles around the StdDev to decide which way to go
<eminitrader> makes sense now thx once again
<jperl> Profti target is the next StDev15:56
<eminitrader> gotya

looking into this chart if u went sghort everytime the 1st sd was tested target was hit all the time and it bounced back right from there ..impressive15:57
<jperl> wish this were always the case....15:58
<eminitrader> i know jper..i think i got it confused too..15:59
<jperl> But there are days when price will just oscillate back and forth about the VWAP
<eminitrader> u consider those chop days tehn
<jperl> yes16:00
<eminitrader> k thx
<jbraswell> well, I eked out a _little_ green today. I'll see you guys tomorrow16:03
* jbraswell is now known as jbraswell_away
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 666.80 --> + 3 16:09
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> This room is only for Trade Posting (real or paper) and/or discussions about a posted trade or key market events that could affect a trader's open trade position. LURKING not allowed..strictly enforced.16:13
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 667.00 --> + 1.8 16:14
I'm only profitable for the day because I decided to "stop" reversing my trades at each WRB Breakout and hold it until it retraced back above the WRB I enter at and then only after it reached at least a pt1.16:16
Had I not done that...I would have taken a loss on this Long position and then would have had 3 more losers...
To only get a 1.5 point winner on the last trade...16:17
Along with churning my account.
Reason why I wanted to hold this Long instead of reversing at each WRB.
* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Nov 14 17:21:18 200516:57