#FuturesTrades November 10th Friday 2006 Trade Log
#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.
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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.
Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +2.50 +0.0000 $250.0 $0.00 Choppy Markets
A choppy market to me is one where either WRBs that are quickly being retraced or volatility spikes that quickly losses their volatility (quickly exhausted).
Although I did several intuition trades today, I stuck to the trading plan unlike yesterday via not getting aggressive in the morning trading session.
The trading plan is to recognize and respect November as a market seasonal tendency for the following price action:
* Overall low volatility
* First hour low volatility
* Afternoon pattern signal window (specific time duration on discussed in the trading manual)
Simply, the high risk trading is in the morning trading session and the lower risk trading is in the afternoon trading session.
Therefore, keep the position size small in the morning and go back to normal position size in the afternoon.
In addition, less trading in the morning and more trading in the afternoon (take it easy in the morning and save your energy for the afternoon).
Yet, with the overall outlook for November...be more realistic with your trading goals via reducing expectations due to the low volatility trading conditions that often has either range bound or choppy like price action especially in the morning session.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Fri Nov 10 09:26:48 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:26 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <jperl> ER2 VWAP data as follows: yesterday: 768.06 09:27 1 week: 765.41 1 month: 767.53 1 year: 725.81 <PapaJon> gm all <yo> gm all 09:28 <jperl> looks like open will be below all vwaps except the yearly.... 09:29 path of least resistance is down <pat255> ty jper.. <RussellDaytrade> intersting vwap #'s, price is now below daily, weekly, and monthly, and, it is also close to all of those... <pat255> gm all <szubaark> gm <RussellDaytrade> seems like it could be repeled away from those levels... 09:30 it also may indicate a fair level of overhead resistance building. <asuni> ur bias intraday at open, niha? 09:31 gm, first of all <NihabaAshi> We have a low volatility opening again. 09:34 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1748.50 «« paper »» 09:41 Covered all Short NQ at 1745.75 --> + 2.75 «« paper »» 09:43 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <PapaJon> sheesh 09:46 no direction yet... well.. i take that back... SIDEWAYS <RussellDaytrade> i got a short bias 09:47 <NihabaAshi> I currently have a weak bearish bias. 09:48 <RussellDaytrade> think we break may break 760 today. <PapaJon> hehe.. was bout to say the same thing niha bearish to neutral <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 764.30 -> small size <RussellDaytrade> not certain why i feel that way, and i am not currently as strong in that conviction, (break 760), as i was about other targets yesterday, perhaps it is just leftover bias from yesterday still active in my mind. 09:49 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 764.00 --> + 0.3 09:53 Volatility still slowly declining and still a choppy market. 09:55 Shorts ER2 @ 763.50 -> small size 09:56 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1744.25 «« paper »» <pat255> wow on a day like today they whack the mkt ... <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 763.50 --> 0 09:57 Be right back...some distractions here at home. * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <szubaark> choppy conditions at the open :(( 09:59 <jperl> The buyers are not quitting so easily this morning ER2 at VWAP 765.08 10:00 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1751.25 --> - 7 «« paper »» Buys NQ @ 1751.25 «« paper »» <RussellDaytrade> what was that? stepped out and missed it. news? 10:02 <szubaark> out of nowhere, tons of buyers show up :)) <PapaJon> who knows... 10:04 maybe something bernie said in Germany <jperl> ER2 top at yesterdays VWAP 768 <PapaJon> btw guys, my son has a brand new APC UPS 1500 for sale on ebay. He is selling it for about 1/3 of retail price. 10:06 He received it by mistake by a major computor builder/retailer. 10:07 He offered to ship it back to them.. but they said just keep it. Go Figure! <pdays> whats the # pj <PapaJon> Here is the link if anyone is interested. http://cgi.ebay.com/BRAND-NEW-NEVER-USED -APC-1500-VA-UPS-with-8-outlets_W0QQitem Z260050692412QQihZ016QQcategoryZ44963QQs sPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem#ebayp hotohosting he only opened the box to take a picture of it.. 10:08 never used it he was suppose to recieve a monitor .. but instead recieved the backup power unit <john99> Long ER2 @ 766.9 «« Scalp »» 10:10 that's is suppose to be my test trade. <jperl> Lookd likr ER2 is going to do the Hula between yesterdays VWAP(768.06) and the weekly VWAP (765.41) 10:11 ER2 took the bounce off the weekly VWAP 10:14 * jperl of course doesn't trade near VWAPs 10:15 <john99> that was also a 61% retrace from recent run up * jperl may some day learn how to trade near VWAPs, but not today 10:16 <john99> expecting smh(sox) to go to 38% retrace from yesterday high about 33.5 before a good short opportunity. 10:17 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:19 <john99> smh just put in trade at 33.5, er2 has trendline underneath strating from 3:30 yesterday. Looking for break, maybe 2 b setup. 10:21 <jperl> ER2 at VWAP 765.76 10:22 <john99> sell stops are at 765,,may drop quickly 10:23 Exited ER2 Long @ 766 --> - 0.9 «« Scalp »» 10:25 Looking to post real trades now. ym weakest this morning 10:26 <PapaJon> man... all sessions MP chart looks like mt everest very balanced profile 10:27 <szubaark> Viscious Opening Chop <PapaJon> yep <jperl> yes ER2 VWAP=POC * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi <PapaJon> yep... :( 10:28 <jperl> I haven't a clue how to trade this <PapaJon> take a very long term postion jperl... one that is neither short nor long.. :) <john99> Shorts ER2 @ 765 10:29 bad entry, right at tick low, thought we may get a quick flush. 10:33 <Brutus> ES 2 ticks from Yest LOD, ER bullish divergen 10:34 If ES Yest low holds +/- few ticks I'm looking for a slow ramp up for the rest of the day 10:35 maybe to ES 1390 <PapaJon> just got a long signal.. but i surely dont like the action think i will just watch stop woulda been at 764.4 10:36 <RussellDaytrade> feels like its ready to go to new levels down for day in here <PapaJon> whoops..no .. woulda been below lod 763 hell .. i will sim it 10:37 Long ER2 @ 765.5 «« paper »» exit stop set ER2 @ 763 «« paper »» 10:38 <jperl> ER2 at VWAP 765.70 <john99> selloff 10:39 <PapaJon> now watch.. since i simming it.. it will go to the moon... hehe <john99> Covered all ER2 Short @ 764.8 --> + 0.2 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 765.00 -> small size 1 contract only <john99> too choppy and impatient. 10:40 seeing lot of volume down here <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 765.30 --> + 0.3 Long ER2 @ 765.80 -> small size 10:41 1 contract only Sponsor: <john99> ym resistance 12128, 38% retrace from low, see if it holds <PapaJon> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 766 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:42 exit stop moved to breakeven ER2 @ 765.5 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 766.10 --> + 0.3 <PapaJon> exit stop raised ER2 @ 765.6 «« paper »» 10:43 bbiam 10:44 exit stop raised ER2 @ 765.7 «« paper »» 10:49 Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 765.7 --> + 0.2 «« paper »» <john99> looking for short setup in next 3-6min 10:50 real choppy this morning, reversal around 11?? 10:55 <jperl> Well I had a really exciting morning trading.... 11:01 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-10/JP ERL_0123.png <RussellDaytrade> you caught that spike up? <jperl> not for want of trying 11:02 <john99> reversal is here <jperl> ER2 didn't take the path of least resistance.... 11:03 <szubaark> 5 small candles up then quick,sudden huge red candle reversal <jperl> but its attempt to go through the heavy artillery also failed <john99> looking for tick high short 11:04 <jperl> so I guess that's why we have a normal distribution day so far <RussellDaytrade> jp, is that monthly vwap figure for 20-22 days activity? 11:05 <jperl> 20 days 11:06 <john99> 1 more min <RussellDaytrade> seems like it is offering regular spikes up to sell into for those with a short bias. 11:08 <john99> Shorts ER2 @ 766.3 waiting 2min 11:09 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 766.00 -> small size Covered all ER2 Short @ 765.70 --> + 0.3 11:10 <john99> Covered all ER2 Short @ 757.7 --> + 8.6 11:11 Covered all ER2 Short @ 766.7 --> - 0.4 sorry, opps 11:12 I'll have to figure out how to correct my posts. covereed at 765.7 11:13 range trading between 765.5-767.5. YM weakest 11:15 Think ym will go to 12105 for -23% fib 11:19 aapl descending triangle, narrowing range 11:23 es at top of descending trendline, and WMA, volume at top here 11:26 will short if no breakout in 3-6min 11:29 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:31 <john99> ym is best short on tick extremes today, ER2 has bullish bias compared to other indices 11:32 <NihabaAshi> Nice to see volatility rising and not spiking. <john99> er2 at 123% fib, ym near resistance 11:33 Shorts YM @ 12128 11:36 looking for 5 pts at least, 2 cars <NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility is declining...expecting a volatility spike. 11:39 <john99> this is taking awhile, needs to be hit in next 6min <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 769.30 -> small size 1 contract only 11:40 <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1751.25 «« paper »» <john99> ticks may just slowly rollover 11:41 <szubaark> need one more push to exit to bail out of this 11:43 <john99> 2 more min for short to come blue 11:44 stop orders are in. <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 768.60 --> - 0.7 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 768.60 <john99> ticks still slow 11:45 <NihabaAshi> 3 contract only meant 2 contract short <john99> here it comes, 11:46 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1751.25 --> 0 «« paper »» * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away 11:47 <john99> Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 12124 --> + 4 11:50 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 767.90 --> + 0.7 <john99> Covered Remainder YM Short @ 12115 --> + 13 <NihabaAshi> Caught my first WRB volatility spike as a pt1. Going to lunch. * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 11:51 <john99> saw lots of block trades near top, that's why I went short, and ticks looked like they were stalling going for some food 11:52 <pat255> vn john <john99> er2 still has trendline underneath, aapl looks like its under trendline and ym still weakest index 11:56 <yo> nq also on trendline here 11:58 intraday <RussellDaytrade> setup target of 766.5 by about 10:30, (down 3 from high in 44 minutes) , price just now poked above trendline for retest of high, usually a good secondary entry. 11:59 <john99> er2 769.5= 3 day 61% fib from yesterday low, looks like strong resistance, expecting SMH to selloff this afternoon below open price based on daily chart. 12:00 retest highs here,,,short entries? <RussellDaytrade> 769 may be about it, unles they decide to run an gun the stops at 770. may save that for later today. 12:01 <john99> 12pm spike like yesterday until 12:15 12:02 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 768.9 «« paper »» 12:03 <john99> waiting 3min next tick high may be good short 12:06 what is the probability of breakouts occuring at lunch, still waiting for a push higher 12:08 wednesday had similiar pattern with topping off at 12:10pm 12:09 <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.1 --> - 0.2 «« paper »» 12:10 <john99> I would hold for possible afternoon selloff 12:13 testing bottom trendline, 12:14 <RussellDaytrade> well, that teh move i was expecting down, though it hasen't carried as far as i expect yet, usually, about htis time, it will accelerate down into the target price, 766.5 or close to it. 12:17 <john99> it will accelerate as soon as that trendline is taken out, I I'm guessing in the next 15min 12:18 technical problems at CBOE and others thru IB <RussellDaytrade> no bulletins here from IB 12:19 <john99> I normally get those bulletins right before a big move happens. :) 12:20 <RussellDaytrade> just got bulletin, you must be closer to the source. <john99> haha no volume signals for awhile now 12:22 <RussellDaytrade> 767 seems like a reasonable price for it to go to. <john99> yes, 767 at leasst 12:23 <RussellDaytrade> in 5 minutes, think that was it, it had it chance 12:26 <john99> no way, give it 8min, 12:28 I'm waiting for my tick oscillator to get to the high range, then I'm looking for short setup, should occur soon we've gone nowhere since the last major move down, its been about 45min 12:29 <RussellDaytrade> it may just be taking its sweet time, going the scenic route. time expiration has occured on my setup target of 766.5. no other setup at this time, so no edge here. <john99> MACD just turned bullish on 1min,, tick almost near high range,,, 12:30 short in next 2min 12:32 smh near high and flat to slowly rising. 12:33 this is too slow 12:35 is this it? 12:40 <pat255> rd what u mean tine expiration? 12:41 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:43 <RussellDaytrade> pat, the model i use has specific timefrmaes that represent the average time i expect the move to manifest in, based on it on average. once that time has expired, the setup, to me, becomes less valid... * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi <john99> RD, that is a good way to track your trades,,,Fridays are soo slow 12:44 I think we got sell stops at 768 <pat255> thks rd... 12:45 <RussellDaytrade> but for exmaple, if this wereto drop some in here, say a buck and a hlf in the next 10-15 minutes, when i enter it into the model, it would adjust the time component slightly, (lengthen it). <jperl> Is this some software you wrote RD? <RussellDaytrade> based on its own average, is what i meant to say above. <pat255> john rd can u guys post your chart to c what are u guys looking at.. <john99> how do I post a chart 12:46 send file, or just post it on putfile.com?? <jperl> You can post charts here.... 12:47 http://charts.dacharts.com/ <RussellDaytrade> its a spreadsheet i keep where i enter all data, etc. <jperl> capture your screen image using something like SNAGIT software and post it at the above site <pat255> hmmm john i use echat where it is easy but dont know here ..jp can help u ..he posts here... <RussellDaytrade> will post chart, talkes a few minutes, multi step process from one computer to another. <john99> just missed it while opening that file,,,great 12:48 <pat255> finally er gave up... <RussellDaytrade> see, it is fulfilling the expected target, more or less, just took its sweet time today... <john99> ym to 12105 12:49 short next tick up trendline broke 12:50 676.8 is prob good entry <pat255> yes rd man t hold it that long ...not easy <RussellDaytrade> its an average, so, some allowances must be made, in time and price, today, it wanted more time, and then, there's always the times it just doesn't fullfill, mostly cuz i mistimed the entry point, (early!!!), but when it's right, they work pretty well. 12:51 <john99> short limit placed at 768 12:52 <RussellDaytrade> i try and target the first portion of the overall setup target as the tarde target, as that is most likely to fulfill objective, even if entire setup target does not. longhand for saying i am looking for ap[prox a buck to a buck and a half retrace off an extreme high or low. 12:53 <pat255> L 67.6 flat...-.2 12:54 <john99> moved short entry higher and missed it, <pat255> niha smart .he took off.. 12:57 this mkt not for trading today.. <john99> its slow, that's for sure. ER2 hit 38% retrace from todays high 12:59 <RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view¤t=r2 111006.jpg&refPage=&imgAnch=imgAnch1 price did hit 767, close enough, late though. 13:00 <john99> here is the chart someone was asking for, this is just 1 screen with ER2 and tick charts 13:21 http://www.putfile.com/pic.php?img=39561 65 <pat255> ty john... 13:23 <john99> This weekend I'm going to try to post some trade setups to fullfill my duty as a new member, I post on elitetrader sometimes. 13:24 I'm done for the day, good luck ya'll <pat255> later john 13:25 <NihabaAshi> After 1130am est...volatility went to the grave yard. 13:35 Sponsor:
<pat255> yup...waste of time sitting here 13:37 <jperl> enough for today.....here are the executions... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-10/JP ERL_0124.png 13:38 last execution was a position sizing reversal long initially at 768.90, reversed to short and double up at 767.40 13:39 <pat255> vn jp 13:41 <jperl> would have been better if there was some profit in it In any case ER2 is back at VWAP now and as you know I don't trade here 13:43 <RussellDaytrade> setup target of 769.6 in 46 from low of 765.5. seems improbable. that spike up just satisfied the trade portion of the setup. usually, it'll pull back and retest about this time. 13:47 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:52 <RussellDaytrade> whadya know, right on target, 10 minutes early 14:12 think they run at 770 stops in here 14:18 <NihabaAshi> I'm surprise nobody in here was on the bullish move soon after 2pm est. 14:20 <Chilly> I bought at 767.40 above the pivot but sold at 768.50 ... still nervous about the chop I guess 14:22 <NihabaAshi> I think until the end of November...not to expect none chop until after 2pm est. 14:23 I'm just watching and taking notes...was done trading for the day during the a.m. trading session. 14:24 <RussellDaytrade> down target of 4.2 in 44 minutes from high, about 767-766.5 14:25 <Chilly> I had trouble staying in any AM moves ... 3 breakeven trades during that time 14:26 <NihabaAshi> Reminder -> #FuturesTrades chat room trade logs are posted @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm (logs will be updated tonight by 9pm est to current) 14:43 <pat255> ty niha ...will look up <RussellDaytrade> new target of 768 by 1:35 or so 15:01 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:04 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 15:09 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:16 * DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Nov 10 16:53:56 2006 16:53 Sponsor:
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