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#FuturesTrades November 9th Thursday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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ER2 EuroFX EC
+11.20 +0.0000
$1,120.00 $0.00

November's Market Seasonal Tendency  

Profit/Loss Blotter

Today is one of those trading days were very few things went right.

First, I got a late start in getting my charts and broker platform open by the time the market open.

The only thing I had open by 0930am est was the IRC communication software for #FuturesTrades.

My sluggishness caused me to miss a big short signal at the beginning and I begin trading in low volatility chop...resulting in either consecutive losses or letting a profitable position become a loser.

The latter above, letting a profitable position become a loser is a beginner mistake and not a mistake made by veteran traders. Simply, those particular trades I'm extremely unhappy with my trading performance.

However, fortunately I was small size only on those trades and when the volatility picked up and I put on a nice size winner to get most of my profits for the day and erase the earlier losses.

Yet, horrible win-loss ratio but excellent position size management.

Just remember, November is a low volatility trading month and if you see that same low volatility in the first hour of trading, don't trade or keep your size small to compensate for the increased risk exposure.

This is a market seasonal tendency that should not be ignored nor underestimated.

With all that said above, don't kid yourself (I don't) in that just because its a profitable day after all the mental errors that things are ok.

It's not because making no adjustments after a trading day like today can easily setup a big losing day or the start of a drawdown period.

Analogy: Pretend your throwing touch down passes and everybody is happy. However, if your throwing arm has improper kinetic motions...eventually that arm will breakdown (injuries) and your career can be over.

Thus, a profitable trading day or a losing trading day is only good if you followed the trading plan.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

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Session Start: Thu Nov 09 09:24:46 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:24
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm all..09:25
<PapaJon> gm all
<szubaark> gm
<jperl> ER2 VWAP values....09:27
yesterday: 769.6009:28
1 week: 762.56
1 month: 766.99
1 year: 725.53
<pat255> ty jper ...just play L...
<RussellDaytrade> gm all, surprised to see the er up so little on the CSCO news/reaction09:31
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 773.20 -> small size 09:37
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1767.75 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 773.10 -> Add 09:38
<yvberj> G/M everyone
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 772.00 --> - 1.2 09:39
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 772.00
I have a Short bias for the current intraday.09:40
<pat255> thks niha
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 770.70 --> + 2.4 09:41
  
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<szubaark> NQ on its own
<NihabaAshi> That fixes my prior loser.09:42
<yo> good09:43
<szubaark> NQ holding this up.. but for how long?09:45
<NihabaAshi> I'm taking a big risk in not adjusting my trailing stop because I think this can make new intraday lows...09:47

If not...will reverse.

Covered ER2 Short @ 773.20 --> - 1.2 09:48

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 773.20
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1770.75 paper
<jperl> ER2 VWAP 772.25
<NihabaAshi> Geesh...
10am est numbers around the corner09:49
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1767.75 paper
<NihabaAshi> Back to neutral on my bias due to the chop.09:50
<szubaark> looking for a Volatility spike to upside or they will take me out

Exited all Long NQ at 1767.75 --> 0 paper

:( no juice

Shorts NQ @ 1767.25 paper 09:51
<jperl> candy strip open....09:52
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0113.png
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 771.40 --> - 1.8

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 771.40

Shorts ER2 @ 771.30 -> Add 09:53
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1767.25 paper 09:54
<NihabaAshi> doubled the contracts on the add

New intraday low will change my bias back to bearish.
<szubaark> they waiting on 10 am reports09:56
<NihabaAshi> no they are not...waiting for report like that would put it in a tight trading range...

It's not tight but show is choppy :(09:57

too choppy09:59

Covered all ER2 Short @ 771.80 --> - 0.9
<jperl> ER2 VWAP now 772.05
<RussellDaytrade> feels like 767 is on the way this am10:00
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 770.80 -> large size 10:01
<jperl> ER2 at yesterdays vwap 769.6010:02
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 770.00 --> + 0.8
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1762 --> + 5.25 paper 10:03
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 769.40 --> + 1.4
Still holding a few contracts...
Hopefully going from small size to large size on this Short position gets me profitable for the day.
Took some hits on the small size...will let position size management save the day again.10:04
<szubaark> good work Niha.
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 769.20 --> + 1.6 10:05
Holding 2 contract remainders.
Will go back to 1-2 contract trading for the remainder of the trading day after this exit.10:06
<RussellDaytrade> think that 767 target may be too low..
<jperl> ER2 keeps returning to yesterdays vwap
<RussellDaytrade> got most of the way there, staisfied the feeling that it was about to drop, etc10:07
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 770.30 --> + 0.5
<jperl> still pausing at yesterdays vwap 769.6010:09
<RussellDaytrade> 767 may still happen if break of lows con gusto'10:10
out on errand, school taxi
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 768.40 -> small size 10:14

That was a volatility spike drop...hopefully the volatility doesn't dry up or equalize to the volatility prior to the spike...10:15

If it does...I'm dumping.
<szubaark> 10:30 Petreleum report10:16
<NihabaAshi> Thanks szu...I forgot about that report :(
<yvberj> Looks like I missed a nice run. That's what happens when your wife wants you to do something for her during trading hrs. LOL10:17
<NihabaAshi> yv...I know the feeling...happens several times to me too per month.10:18
<szubaark> yvberj.. people dont realize you have to conecntrate ON EVERY TICK
<yvberj> I know. She thinks I just sit here doing nothing.
<yo> lol10:19
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1759.75 paper 10:20
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 768.30 --> + 0.1
Volatility is equalizing :(
Expecting more chop.10:21
Long ER2 @ 769.50 -> small size 10:22
Bad fill...caught some slippage on that :(
4 tick slippage10:23
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1763 --> - 3.25 paper 10:25

:(
<jperl> ER2 back at yesterdays vwap again 769.6010:26
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1762.50 paper
<NihabaAshi> By the way in case nobody noticed...Oil prices has been rising since Nov 2nd.
If it can get back above $70...I'll be paying a lot of attention to it for my trades in the Eminis.10:27
<RussellDaytrade> i see it got to the 767's10:28
<jperl> Yes RD but it didn't make it to the monthly VWAP of 766.99
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 770.40 --> + 0.9 10:30
<RussellDaytrade> a buy below 769-768.5, i think...
<NihabaAshi> Horrible fill on the entry...excellent fill on a exit.

Crazy day so far :(

Geesh...10:31

Trade error again...
<RussellDaytrade> model saya up 4.3 in 42 minutes, measured from 768, (the first low, not the absolute low), or about 772 in about 20 minutes10:32
<NihabaAshi> That was not an exit of 1 contract...

It was and ADD :(

I'm done for the day after this trade.

Long ER2 @ 770.40 -> Add 10:33
<szubaark> think with commisisons im breakeven now :(
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)10:34
<jperl> ER2 trapped between yestredays VWAP and todays 769.60---770.59
<NihabaAshi> Will review my Camtasia recording after I'm done to see how the heck I got my orders mixed up like that.
* jperl doesn't trade here
<RussellDaytrade> jp, while out, a thought/analogy of vwap occured to me...10:35

similar to a magnet, with dual polarities, sometimes it attracts the price to it, and sometimes it repels price away from it.10:36

Long ER2 @ 769.8 paper 10:37
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1763.75 --> - 1.25 paper
Buys NQ @ 1763.75 paper
<RussellDaytrade> late entry on that, typing elsewhere10:38
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 770.56
do we bounce off here RD?
<RussellDaytrade>  Exited ER2 Long @ 770.3 --> + 0.5 paper

still looking 772

in 1510:39

weak day though, coming off an overbought high, so it may not have it in it to fulfill entirely
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 771.20 --> + 0.8 10:40
Extremely lucky exit with that 1 contract entry @ 770.40...still holding 1 contract.
<szubaark> lets see if i can get a upside spike
<NihabaAshi> Done trading for the day after I exit that contract to get my head out of my butt.10:41
<yo> nice work niha
<NihabaAshi> Well...we all can use a little luck today :)10:42
<jperl> TotalMarket at its VWAP...so I'm done for the morning....10:43

Here is the TotalMarket chart....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0114.png
<RussellDaytrade> 771.5 within 7-8 minutes of time portion of target is accetable results10:44
<jperl> Here are this mornings trades...10:45

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0115.png
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1763.75 --> 0 paper 10:46
:((
<jperl> Will wait until TotalMarket moves to +- 1 sTd dev before thinking about another trade

Here is what ER2 looks like with VWAP lines...10:47

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0116.png10:48
<szubaark> im done.. trading here is too much stress10:49
* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away
<jperl> don't let it get to you Szu
just follow your plan10:50
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 769.80 --> + 0.3
<RussellDaytrade> jp, does the redline represent vwap?
<szubaark_away> My Shorts i was looking for more followthru to downside.. but they creeping it higher :(.. not worth trading it
<jperl> VWAP is the light blue curve....10:51
<NihabaAshi> I got my profit goal for the trading day only because I had a nice position size on a winning trade.
<RussellDaytrade> stick with it, more ops on the way.
<jperl> +- 1,2,3 STdevs are the green and red curves above/below blue VWAP curve
<szubaark_away> Breakeven day is better then losing day :)
<NihabaAshi> Outside that one big profit...horrible win:loss ratio, one position size error and one big time order entry error (added instead of exiting).10:52
<RussellDaytrade> the blue line, so it also displays where it was at earlier times of day? nice.
<jperl> yes10:53

You can see how price action is just oscillating about VWAP now

within 1 STdDev....

not a place for me....10:54

maybe for a scalper
<RussellDaytrade> i have no read here, waiting for an overbought/oeversold condition to emerge
<pat255> jper it has to be outside the 1 std?10:57

foru to take the L/S tarde?
<jperl> usually yes
<RussellDaytrade> possible sceanrio, er hits 772 and holds, dow claws up a little and holds, possible leg up to 774 area.
<pat255> kty
<RussellDaytrade> slight consoliadtion prior to possible spike up to 774ish10:58
<jperl> problem is if price action is at +- 1stdev, but total market is not...
I will ignore any signals
<pat255> i c..

what sysmbol u use for total mtkt?10:59
<jperl> These....
<NihabaAshi> Reminder: Be careful...its November and has a tendency to produce chop like what we saw earlier this morning...its a good month for waiting for things to settle after 10am est.11:00

:)
<pat255> thks niha
<NihabaAshi> Especially if the Open is choppy but not in a tight trading range.
  
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<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0118.png
TotalMarket is a weighted some of the indicies shown11:01
<pat255> ah ha i c...hmm complicated ...
<jperl> actually quite simple
<pat255> so u plot wt av ofall these symbols?
<jperl> I plot the weighted sum only11:02
one char t
one chart
<RussellDaytrade> make thgat 773.5, 774 looks like a stretch
<pat255> k will have to check with u how u do that ..11:03
<jperl> If you use quotetracker....11:04

just make a separate portfolio with the symbols in it ....
<pat255> will try that ..11:05
<jperl> and look at there sum after normalizing each one to some value
<RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=r2 110906.jpg&refPage=&imgAnch=imgAnch111:06
price /time projections, worked out today
<NihabaAshi> Be back later...I'm done for the day.11:07
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<jperl> what's the lower chart below the price chart RD?11:08
<RussellDaytrade> momentun oscillator, not sure how its constructed, but it seems to be equivalent to several other indicators all rolled up in one.11:09
on that earlier scenario, i think 773 is aboutthe top end11:10
thinbk that was about it, somebody make a call11:13
down? up? if so, to where?11:14
large (relatively) wedge type formation forming? three plus days, approx. possible implications?11:15
way late on this target call, missed primary move. 770 in 44 minutes from high at 773, maybe a bit lower today, since there seems to be more wekness today.11:23
the relative weakness may also have targets achieve relatively quicker then noraml.11:26
<jperl> do you want to tell us how you compute these numbers RD?
<RussellDaytrade> hopefully, i'm not pushing my luck on this call, after 2-3 good ones earlier today.
jp, i have done a fair bit of research, an on-going work-in-progress...11:27
<Brutus> I'm looking for 765 before the end of the day.
<RussellDaytrade> that has documented, measured, (in time and price), all the moves in the er, and calculates the statistical averages of moves, based upon their own averages, in differing time sessions of the trading day11:29
jp, open that linked chart again, and take a look at the trendline drwan. note that it has an inception and terminus, that indicate both the price and time aspects. what i draw your attention to, is how the line helps to visualize when the 'price' deviates from the expected trajectory of where i am expecting it to go. this provides additional clues, such as secondary ehtries, ie (retests).11:36
also when 'time' has expired, and so on.11:37
<jperl> what's the charting program you using RD?
<RussellDaytrade> right now, there is approx 15-20 left on that last setup, and that spkie up just now is likely the secondary entry short, albeit a little later than i prefer to see them.11:38
i have IB platform charts11:39
for example, as a description of the above explanation, that spike rose above the trendline.11:41
in an up target condition, i look for retests/pullbacks below the trendline for entries long, and vice versa.
<szubaark_away>  Shorts NQ @ 1763 paper 11:42
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:46
<szubaark_away> looks like i got caught in CHOP (in hindsight)11:50

this Opening was Suspect, now they showing their true colors11:51
<RussellDaytrade> brut, oil market seems to have an opinion of the Rumsfeld exit... may weigh on prices..may be effective to short on spikes up, and to wait for them to develop/occur prior to shorting.
szu, just wiat it out, it'll work out.11:52
<szubaark_away> i usually have to leave hour before close (my income source) so when im not profitible before then u usually end up Pvertrading :((11:53

Overtrading
<Brutus> Have not followed oil to closely, Chart looks its formed a base and11:56
<RussellDaytrade> nah, you are just a little off on the timimg aspecxt of the entries.
<Brutus> washed out the lows
As A says :)
<RussellDaytrade> not looking at chart brut, just noting which way price is/has moved of late, last week/week and a half.11:57
<Brutus> The news has also fooled the early lows
<RussellDaytrade> just hit 770.1 within a minute of tiem target, hot damn, this is pretty.11:59
<Brutus> lows = longs How do you equate Rumsfeld to bullishness in oil
<RussellDaytrade> i think the oil markets are anticipating trouble building, rumsfeld exit indicative of underlying worsening situation in Iraq, etc.12:00
* les is now known as lesAway
<pat255> Rd that has been know for a long time ...12:01
<szubaark_away>  Covered all Short NQ at 1765.25 --> - 2.25 paper
<pat255> iraq noeasy soutions ...

big blunder imho...but we have what we have now...
<Brutus> Maybe we will see. I see demand is still increasing, China's use was up 7%12:02
for the year or projected for next year
<RussellDaytrade> heady times in china, wild wild west!
<Brutus> WOrld economies are still very strong
<RussellDaytrade> china would be terrifically wise to implement oil independence measures/alternatives right away.12:03
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 769.5 paper 12:04
Exited ER2 Long @ 769.5 --> 0 paper 12:05
To early I think
<RussellDaytrade> brut, i'm getting no read here, though i have a stronger short bias on a bigger picture basis12:06
<Brutus> They brought to Australia a solar car hatch back, Made in India!12:07
<RussellDaytrade> maybe 771 tops if bounces, 770.5 or so
<Brutus> Looking for a pivot soon to bounce through lunch then a strong sell in the afternoon12:08
The day is bearish
<RussellDaytrade> yeah, i'm takin that 765 call as good, until i see different.12:09
<Brutus> Tommarrow may be up being a holiday and low volume ect
<RussellDaytrade> i don't have a feel or read on it, but figure you do.
<Brutus> Paper trades for me unless I see something good. Done OK in the morning.12:10
<RussellDaytrade> 765 could happen easy if low is breached...12:12
<Brutus> Pivot time for lunch12:13
Yes look to short any opertunity after 1300
<RussellDaytrade> example/possibility, price approaches and hovers around lows/bases out for a spell, ie, stays in the area,and then pierces it (lows), would induce rapid drop to lower levels, etc, gets you to 765.

maybe in an hour and a hlf or so?12:14
<Brutus> Yes When ES breaks lows you could safely get 2 points, All you need to get a good play in ER12:16
<RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=r2 110906-2.jpg&refPage=&imgAnch=imgAnch1

latest price/time projections, that one worked well too.

think i'll give it a rest and wait for inspiration.12:17
<Brutus> Give scalping a go tomarrow if its a typical Friday you should get some chop12:19
But holiday may affect it12:20
<RussellDaytrade> brut, on a 5 day chart, there is a lower trendline,that if this low (769) is breached, may be indicative of a trendchange, and induce selling to/near the LOD.
<Brutus> In other days we get caught fighting the trend
yes I agree12:22
Today all my trades have been short, even though I saw some good long scalps12:23
Playing with the trend I was more happy to add to a position like at 11.1612:24
<pat255> Rd how do u trade the setups ...on the basis of trend lines?12:29
<RussellDaytrade> i look for the setups to develop that meet my model conditions, then look to go counter, ie, overbought, go short, and vice versa. if you refer to the trendlines i have drawn, i am looking at and for primary and secondary entries, ( retests).12:31
<pat255> kty12:33
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:55
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 771.1 paper 12:57

will add to 772.4 stop 772.612:58
<RussellDaytrade> may as well it run to 76813:10
sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 767.5 paper 13:11
helps to set the intention.
may be it for now brut13:13
<Brutus>  Covered ER2 Short @ 768.3 --> + 2.8 paper 13:15
<RussellDaytrade>  cancelled all open stop orders paper
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 769 paper 13:16
<RussellDaytrade> hover down here for a spell? thren breach after a half-to an hour? just a wild-ass guess on that one, could happen!13:17
<Brutus>  Covered ER2 Short @ 767.7 --> + 1.3 paper 13:28
<RussellDaytrade> brut, a 15 day chart makes me think we split dif of high/low, lower end of that dif, say 755-756. not today!, perhaps next couple??13:29
<Brutus> Dont know. Too far out for me. How far the trend carries ???13:31
<RussellDaytrade> using a visual interpretation, thinking it balances out taht steep rise of a few days ago, and drops to near the area of breakout, at the end of the day on Nov 3, (our Nov3rd!!)13:35
<Brutus> Im still bullish for the longer term and there has not been a reversal day for me yet.13:39
<RussellDaytrade> if this is a low that holds in here, target of up 4.1 in 46
<Brutus> Once ES breaks the highs we could really take off

Low might be in or within 1 point of ES LOD
<RussellDaytrade> doubt we se that much up today, but a buck or more certainly doable..13:40
buy retset with stop at lod
Long ER2 @ 767.6 paper 13:41
seller at 768.5
<Brutus> If the afternoon is up look out tommorrow could be a big up trend day.13:42

ES should easily break 1393 to 139513:43

S&P 14000 here we come

Even my friend here wanted to invest in the Dow with it making new highs.13:44

So the bullishness couls last a little longer
<RussellDaytrade>  buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 768.5 paper 13:45
buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 769 paper
<szubaark_away>  Buys NQ @ 1760.50 paper 13:46
<Brutus> Volume low could test lows again
<RussellDaytrade> jp, you gotta 4 day vwap? thinkin it may be support, for only a bounce, not long bias bigger pic.13:47

Exited all ER2 Long @ 767. --> - 2 paper 13:49

no conviction long, going against my short bias, seems like tough sledding13:50
<szubaark_away> need to hold here for my Long
bounce up could be nice13:51
<Brutus> I think new lows but it could be it

First time all retail jumped in13:52

2nd tiem they dont want to touch it

Fade your emotions :)
<RussellDaytrade> my crystal ball is off elsewhere right now, defering to longer term short bias
i think they are working on your 765 directive.13:53
<Brutus> Yes ES range is still low

But Naz is holding

Want Es to break lows13:54
<szubaark_away> ES poked enough to get Stops below the low
REAL selling would be more followthru to downside
<RussellDaytrade> feels like new lower levels on all indexes on their way, just needs a little push13:55
<Brutus> Yes low follow trough
<RussellDaytrade>  Long ER2 @ 766.3 paper 13:56

trying again, stop lod13:57

Exited all ER2 Long @ 765.8 --> - 0.5 paper 13:58
<Brutus> Maybe a 1400 pivot
if not get out
When it all lines up at these times take it13:59
maybe its the 5min chart traders
Who knows
<RussellDaytrade> only positive thing i see for long trade is the rate of decline in here seems to be 3slowing.14:00
<szubaark_away> nail biting time on my Long here14:01
* Disconnected 14:02
* Attempting to rejoin channel #futurestrades14:03
* Rejoined channel #futurestrades
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm
<szubaark_away> 2 Niha's?
<RussellDaytrade> just fro grins, models says up 4.1 in 46 from low, so 769.5 in approx 40 minutes from here14:04
<Brutus> ER2 is down 7 ES 4.5, NQ 3.25 ER2 is at a discount

Long ER2 @ 766.2 paper 14:06
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:07
<RussellDaytrade> after a couple three good days of simtrading, alomost all exclusively short, have just had a string of losing trades, all long, probably good long trade here, just off on timing entries, and have very little to no conviction, yet, for long trades.14:09

that in itself may be good indicator right now14:10

to go long.

ie, i have given up buying, etc.14:11
<Brutus>  Exited ER2 Long @ 767.2 --> + 1 paper
oops 766.214:12
<szubaark_away> chop suey14:13

this is turning out to be a real hard day to make a penny14:14

Exited all Long NQ at 1757 --> - 3.5 paper 14:15

:((

Shorts NQ @ 1757 paper
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 765.2 paper 14:17
<RussellDaytrade> dang, missed that, getting breakfast14:18

Long ER2 @ 765.2 paper 14:19

1 point scale long, 3 bullets14:20
<szubaark_away>  Covered all Short NQ at 1756.50 --> + 0.5 paper
im done.. not trading Crap Price Action
  

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<RussellDaytrade> minor target levels for profita

i'm going for a dose of pain, heck with it.14:21

er relative strength to dow just now, change of dynamic14:24

good for nother buck or so, maybe

new target reset, 768 in 35 from low, so about 25 minutes fromnow14:27

Long ER2 @ 765.5 -> Add paper

buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 767 paper 14:28

good action, size on offer with market lifting, trying to shake out remaining longs, hold14:31

buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 766.5 paper

cancelled all open stop orders paper
<Brutus>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 766.0 --> + 0.8 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 766.2 --> + 0.7 paper 14:32
<Brutus>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 766.4 --> + 1.2 paper
Long ER2 @ 765.7 paper
Exited ER2 Long @ 765.9 --> + 0.2 paper 14:33
<RussellDaytrade> stop at 764.5, gotta trade there to get me to close, otherwise wil hold to see how the movie ends14:35
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 765..0 paper
<RussellDaytrade> no longer looking to add contracts at scales in, etc
<Brutus>  Exited ER2 Long @ 765.5 --> + 765.5 - 765..0 paper 14:37
Long ER2 @ 765.4 paper 14:38
Exited ER2 Long @ 765.0 --> - 0.4 paper 14:39
<RussellDaytrade>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 764.5 --> - 2 paper 14:40

that down -.7
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 763.7 paper 14:42
Exited ER2 Long @ 763.8 --> + 0.1 paper 14:43
<RussellDaytrade>  Long ER2 @ 763.3 paper 14:44
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 762.8 paper 14:45
Looks like capitulation volume has to be it14:46
<RussellDaytrade> just a waypoint, lower tomorrow

i think.
<Brutus> I think todays ES target was yesterdays low14:47
<RussellDaytrade> lower 760's within easy reach of 755-756 area, etc
<jperl> ER2 weekly VWAP touched 762.56
<Brutus> Sorry meant day before yesterdays low14:48
<jperl> could bounce up from here
<Brutus> Stop at BE
<jperl> but since I don't trade longs below VWAP....
I'll stop for the day....
here are todays executions...
hmmm having trouble transmitting file....sec14:50
<pat255> vn jay...14:51
<RussellDaytrade> time standing still
<jperl> file server to dacharts seems to be down....14:52

will try again in a few minutes
<Brutus> I think we could hit 768 by the close14:56
<RussellDaytrade> i got a setup target of 766, but will be surprised to se it14:57

in about 30 minutes from now

765 seems about right

nice call on tht 765 brut14:58

4 hour downtrend earlier today, maybe good balance in time coming for rest of day, in a small way price-wise15:00
<Brutus> No I dont think so, but market works more to ES targets imo, ER just follows15:01
<RussellDaytrade>  Long ER2 @ 762.3 -> Add paper 15:02
<Brutus> I missed typing my BE stop exit as stated above, but this is all paper
Exited ER2 Long @ 762.8 --> 0 paper 15:03
<pat255> jper vwap is good one for trading setups ..
<jperl> yes15:04
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 762.8 paper 15:05

1500 Shorts will cover soon15:07
<RussellDaytrade> still 15-20 minutes remaining in target, may accelerate up here15:10
<Brutus>  Exited ER2 Long @ 762.5 --> - 0.3 paper 15:11
<RussellDaytrade>  Long ER2 @ 761.3 -> Add paper 15:13
<Brutus> New rule for me NO COUNTER TREND TRADES IN THE AFTERNOON
<RussellDaytrade> too steep a downtrend to bounce, and too early yet15:14
<pat255> agree...
<Brutus> Morning has much more winners and bounce even on counter trend.
<RussellDaytrade> yes it does, seems easier to read also15:15
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:16
<Brutus> If I averged in on this, months profits gone..
<jperl> ok server back...here are todays trades...15:25
<RussellDaytrade>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 762.4 --> + 1.1 paper
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-09/JP ERL_0122.png15:26
As you can see from the numerous $5 trades....I had tight stops15:27
<RussellDaytrade>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 763 --> - 0.3 paper

breach of 760 not resolved yet, bounce off of it without breach is typical for first approach, may beach tomorrow, with carry for soem stop running15:33

er not dropping here on dow selling, relative strength15:35
<Brutus> 4.5 point bounce once I capitulated :)16:00
<RussellDaytrade> i got lucky today...

exited early on those early buys, no conviction, and held on and added nearer the lows, worked out today.16:01
<pat255> nice rd16:02
mkt optn am?
open
<Brutus> I think its a Normal day16:03
<pat255> ty
<RussellDaytrade> my account is currently fundeda t 9100.00, so i am not inclined to trade in the same manner, ie, 3 contracts with scales..
<Brutus> Regular Close16:04
CME Globex Regular Close
<RussellDaytrade> not quite that gutsy/fortitudeness, if thats a word.
<yo> gn all16:05
<RussellDaytrade> would like to implement trades with a wide stop, say about 2 bucks, on trades i feel are levels that the rubber band is stretched to its extremes..
<Brutus> If tomorrow is choppy should be some nice scalps, on single contracts16:06
<RussellDaytrade> and in that way, invoke some type of fortitude that keeps me in the trade til it either works out, or doesn't...
<Brutus> But also may be bullish on light volume.
<RussellDaytrade> any suggestions? thx.
<NihabaAshi> Anybody in here using the Zen-Fire version of NinjaTrader ???16:07
<RussellDaytrade> not i. IB here.16:08
<NihabaAshi> I got a pm by someone asking me about it and I know absolutely nothing about it...
<Brutus> Get you confidence up on scalps with thight stops

N o Niha
<NihabaAshi> Just figure I can direct the guy to someone that's using it.
<RussellDaytrade> brut, most of the trades i am looking at, have a 1.-1.5 target. i am currently tracking my accuracy, and it is near 77% combined, 80% long trades, 74% shorts, so i am thinking i may be able to withstand a $2 stop, for an expected target of 1.4 average or so.16:11

perhaps give it room in th eam, and tighten in the pm.16:13
<pat255> later ty all16:15
<RussellDaytrade> good read on the market today, brut.16:16
<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.16:18
<RussellDaytrade> a'dios all.16:19
* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Nov 09 16:20:45 200616:20
  
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