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#FuturesTrades November 7th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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ER2 DAX
+7.00 +13.00
$700.00 $414.70

November Trading Conditions

Profit/Loss Blotter

Overall an ok trading day. However, it should have been a great trading day had it not been for a position size error on one trade and a entry order error (click Buy button when I meant to click the Sell button) on another trade.

In fact, the last error prompt me to call it a day (stop trading) because these types of trading errors are unacceptable.

Also, discussed below is a market seasonal tendency about November trading conditions that should help you be better prepared to trade in November.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

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Session Start: Tue Nov 07 09:31:52 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:31
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1739.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:32

Shorts NQ @ 1739.25 «« paper »»

exit stop set NQ @ 1739 «« paper »» 09:33
<pat255> gm all..09:34
@office again ...:(09:35
<szubaark> pat :(

Covered all Short NQ at 1738 --> + 1.25 «« paper »»
<pat255> just watch kind of keep with the mkt
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 768.20 -> small size 09:37
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1740.25 «« paper »»
<PapaJon> szu... [06:39] <eminitrader> hey pj..pls pass on my regqards to szu...kinda miss him09:39
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 768.70 --> + 0.5
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 768.40 --> + 0.2 09:40
Be right back...got some distractions here at home.
  
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* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<szubaark> papa.. tell him i hope he comes back soon
<PapaJon> you got it09:41

szu.. you know you can pm him .. even tho he is not in the room
<szubaark> didnt know that09:42
<PapaJon> click on 'command' >>> 'Query User'.. and post a message...
<pdays>  Long YM @ 12154 09:43
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1741.25 --> + 1 «« paper »» 09:44
<pdays>  Exited all YM Long @ 12449 --> + 295 09:46
Exited all YM Long @ 12149 --> - 5
<NihabaAshi_away>  Long ER2 @ 769.90 -> large size 09:49
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi09:50
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)09:54
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 769.10 -> Add 09:56
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1743 «« paper »» 09:58
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 770.20 --> + 1.1
Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 770.30 --> + 0.4 09:59
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1745.75 --> + 2.75 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 770.50 --> + 0.6
Holding 1 contract remainder.10:00
<szubaark> nice Niha... with the distractions
<NihabaAshi> I'm trading my short term bias right now and I'm bullish until mid-November.10:01
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 771.20 --> + 1.3 10:02
<jperl> Have to stop for a while to do some personal stuff....

Here are this mornings trades...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-07/JP ERL_013.png

May be back later10:03
<Brutus>  Shorts ER2 @ 773.1 10:13
Covered ER2 Short @ 773.1 --> 0 10:14
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 774.50 -> small size 10:18
<RussellDaytrade> what a stilt!
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 775.00 --> + 0.5 10:19
  
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<yvberj> Long ER 773.1 exit 774.210:20
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 775.6 «« paper »»
<yvberj> ER has had a good run this AM. Time for a retracement.
<NihabaAshi> Guys...if you have historical charts...examine them closely to give you hints about how the market behaves around "elections time".10:21
<PapaJon> damn... i had to take a phone call a little while ago.. missed a couple of my better signals... uhg
ugh!
<NihabaAshi> This is a "market seasonal tendency"...its historical.10:22
<RussellDaytrade> 4.50 down in 30 minutes +/-
<pat255> later guys ,,vn niha ...on L side
<NihabaAshi> If I had traded this particular "market season tendency" that's related to elections...10:24
I would have done a Long swing trade off the lows of Nov 3rd.10:25
However, I had long stopped trading that day prior to such due to data problems.
You know the story..."Could'uv, would'uv and should'uv" doesn't make profits :)10:26
Shorts ER2 @ 774.60 -> small size 10:28
1 contract only...risky trade due to the "market seasonal tendency".
Covered ER2 Short @ 775.50 --> - 0.9 10:31
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 775.50
I have a resistance zone starting around 777.1010:35
Meant 776.10 - 777.10 for that s/r zone.10:36
<yvberj> My resist. is @775. Also 5mn. is a mile away from the 20MA. IMO needs to pb.
<NihabaAshi> I'm going to keep this trade for a long while...10:37
:)
Into mid November.
Will trade another trading instrument via day trades.10:38
Shorts DAX @ 6380.00 -> large size 10:42
Covered 2/3 DAX Short @ 6377.00 --> + 3 10:48
Volatility has been declining since 1045am est10:53
<RussellDaytrade> anybody else losing their connections this am? gone down twice10:56
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder DAX Short @ 6378.00 --> + 2
Decision time...11:00
Close my ER2 at a loss for the trade but profitable for the day in ER2 and re-enter the Long at a cheaper price
Covered all ER2 Short @ 773.40 --> - 2.10 11:02
 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 773.70 -> Swing / Position Trade 11:03
Only 1 of the contract of the 3 contract position is a Swing.11:04
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:06
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 773.90 --> + 0.2 11:13
Got some more distractions...needed to dump 2 contracts...be right back...11:14
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi11:21
<jperl> Ok, I'm back.....here are some VWAP numbers

ER2: 771.87

YM: 12177

all indices very green11:22
<NihabaAshi> I was expecting a trend day but not this tight pullback to go with it...
Volatility is steadily declining.11:23
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 774.00 --> + 0.3 11:25
Going to lunch and exited my swing position...I prefer something below 773.00 and will cross my fingers that it drops below that level.11:26
* NihabaAshi is now known as Nihaba_lunch
<RussellDaytrade> anybody got an outlook for today from here on out?11:42
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 773.1 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 11:43
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 772.2412:00
* Nihaba_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi12:01
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-07/JP ERL_014.png
<RussellDaytrade> break below may bring in the sellers
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 772.90 -> small size 12:05

This is not a swing long.

My new swing trade analysis is that the 769.70 price area is the trigger zone for me to start looking for a Swing Long.12:08

Still lunch time and I'm not too good at Volatility Analysis during lunch...looking for a quick profit instead of a WRB.12:14

Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 773.10 --> + 0.2 12:16

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 773.10 --> + 0.2
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:18
<szubaark> they giving to pullbacks recently.. just quick move at open then Chop rest of day :((12:38

to=no12:39

i dont have the nerves OR patience to trade these pullbacks
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 772.3613:09
<RussellDaytrade> -feels like it'll break it this time13:10
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-07/JP ERL_017.png
<RussellDaytrade> even if it doesn't right away, it hanging at a high level, so, a turn won't take much to have the overhead ersistance of a vwap13:11
<jperl> As you can see from the chart...price action has been bouncing off the VWAP since 12:00 EST13:13
<RussellDaytrade> the inverse of when it was 750.3 on 11-2, didn't take much to get above it, and biuld, etc

interesting what i just saw in the charts you posted jp, i have both charts still up on their own browsers, and can toggle between them...13:16

in the time since the first chart to now, price has gone nowhere, but the volume at these levels has magnified..

looks like it's hanging on a cliff, with a fair amount of volume potentially above it13:18
<jperl_away> funny I got disconnected....
<Brutus> Wow Es HOD only couple of points from October 26th highs13:19
<jperl_away> and couldn't reconnect unless I changes my nick
weird
<RussellDaytrade> i 've had three or more disconnects today, and very slow to log back on
<jperl_away> is that so?13:23
I still here13:24
Let's see if I can change my nick now...
* jperl_away is now known as jperl
<jperl> ok
<RussellDaytrade> this should carry down soem
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)13:27
<RussellDaytrade> we've just risen 25 points in less then 2 days, seems like more retrace is in order, maybe a bounce back up to vwap will put lid on it13:30

jp, i think that vwap may be a good indicator for entries, spcifically, when the market is overbought/oversold, and price is near vwap, and also near the respective highs or lows of day, and a breach of vwap presents a small threshold to cross and hold13:37
<jperl> that's quite a mouthful RD13:38
I don't trade when price is near VWAP
<RussellDaytrade> easy theory

i've seen 2 good instances of it as i just described in the past several days13:39

wonder if i can create a similar chart in IB to waht you dispalyed?13:40

got any idea aboutthat?
<jperl> don't think IB charts have VWAP or price histogram capability13:41
<RussellDaytrade> and why do you not trade when price near vwap?
<jperl> VWAP is an equivolume line....
which means...
at VWAP there has been as much volume traded above it as below it...13:42
so there is not edge for the trader
no edge
as you can see right now....ER2 heading above VWAP after being below it....
very common for price action to oscillate in the VWAP region13:43
<RussellDaytrade> ok, while that may be so, look at those charts you sent earlier, what i see is a bigger amount of volume above..
  

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<jperl> easy to get burned
<RussellDaytrade> yes, this seems like just the place for it to meet resistance
<jperl> If you compute the area under the volume historgram curve...13:44
you will find it is equal on both sides of the VWAP
<RussellDaytrade> ok. still think it has predictive ability at specific junctures when it can be anticiapted to set up for a great countertrend trade, such as what i look for13:46
<jperl> AS far as predictability, for me....
I will trade only longs when price is above VWAP...13:47
shorts below...
do nothing at VWAP
<RussellDaytrade> any specific amounts below/above for shorts/longs?
<jperl> usually 1 standard deviation13:48
<RussellDaytrade> have a number that usually eqyates to?
<jperl> Standard Deviations are computed dynamically on the fly13:49
as you can see in the price charts I posted....
green curves above VWAP are 1st, 2nd, 3rd STdev
red curves below VWAP are -1st, -2nd, -3rd STddev13:50
<RussellDaytrade> see those, you use the purple lines for signalling?13:51
<jperl> no...
don't use them at all
should probably remove them
<RussellDaytrade> without me having spent any time using them, (vwap), and only just noting them over the past week or so, from your calling them out, i might be more inclined to use them as i described....13:53
<jperl> purple lines represent the area where 68% of volume about the POC is located13:54
<RussellDaytrade> though they may only setup fully every few days
<jperl> well...if you find something significant other than what I have described for VWAP and is useful for trading...13:55
let us all know
<RussellDaytrade> or, if a person is so inclined, and wanted to invoke more frequent use of it (vwap) to augment other info, they may try to sell/buy when it too far above/below it, with more intrady frequency, with the expectation that price may oscillate backs towards it and or breach to the opposite side of it, (oposite side of where trade was initiated.13:58

basically. i'm saying i think it's a great tool.14:00

i think there are instances when it can be read accurately, and provide good RR profiles.14:01

thx for sharing it.
<jperl> yw
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:39
<jperl> I'm done for the day......trades are here...14:50
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-07/JP ERL_018.png
lots of good action today
<yvberj> 5
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 770.20 -> small size 15:01
Trade error...will be dumping this soon.
Exited ER2 Long @ 769.60 --> - 0.6 15:05
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 769.60
doubled my contracts on the reversal.
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 768.60 --> + 1 15:06
That Long was an error because it should have been a Short :(15:07
I had made a temporary change in my workstation and got caught clicking the wrong button.
Lat trade of the day after a simple order entry error like that.15:10
Lat = Last
Covered ER2 Short @ 767.90 --> + 1.7 15:12
Holding 1 contract Short.
Looking for a WRB volatility spike exit.15:13
Doesn't look like I'm going to catch a WRB on a higher chart interval unless is breaks down soon.15:20
I'm still waiting on a Long signal to do a Swing trade especailly with ER2 giving back most of its gains today.15:21
Gessh...one lousy tick it missed being a WRB :(15:22
Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 769.00 --> + 0.6 15:24
I'm done for the day especially after that entry order error two trades ago...could have been very costly had I put some size on it :(15:43
Yet, a good day today...profitable in both Emini ER2 and Eurex DAX.15:44
<RussellDaytrade> whaddya think N, youthink it sees the midpoint of yestarday in tomorows trade...

er at approx 763-415:45

excuse me, a little lower than that, 761-762?15:46

approx near that breakout price
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:48
<NihabaAshi> As a Reminder: The volatility for November is normally low especially in comparison to October volatility.16:10

Thus, its normal to find less trade opportunities in November in comparison to October...more time to study the markets :)16:11

Volatility usually begins picking up again towards the end of November.16:15

Meant it drops off further towards the end of November and picks up the beginning of December.16:16

Then it peaks in January.16:17

Simply, its normal to be trading less in November and you need to do a little more cherry picking along with being better prepared to trade because trade signals will tend to sneak up on you in November...16:18

Sneak up on you due to the low volatility conditions.

In fact, I do most of my website work in November to keep from being bored :)16:19
<yo> thanks for the info niha16:21
gn all16:22
<NihabaAshi> Take care.
<yo> :)
<ItalianSharp> by niha
<Brutus> cul8r16:24
* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Nov 07 16:37:32 200616:37
  
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