#FuturesTrades November 6th Monday 2006 Trade Log
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Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +12.80 +0.0000 $1,280.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
I don't have anything valuable to say today other than that I stuck to the trading plan today.
However, I will post something of value tomorrow about November trading conditions.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Mon Nov 06 09:29:19 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:29 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <PapaJon> gm all * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 09:30 <yo> gm all 09:31 <Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 760.80 09:32 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 759.80 -> small size 09:40 2 contracts only <Brutus> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 758.9 --> + 1.9 09:41 <NihabaAshi> I have a bullish intraday bias (not sure how long that will last) and I'm small size only on the Short positions because of my bullish bias. 09:42 <Brutus> Covered all ER2 Short @ 758.4 --> + 2.4 <jperl> Fridays VWAP numbers.... ER2 754.49 09:43 YM 12029 NQ 1710.96 <NihabaAshi> Nice trade Brutus. <jperl> ES 1370.65 <Brutus> Long ER2 @ 757.6 09:45 Exited ER2 Long @ 758.3 --> + 0.7 09:46 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1722 «« paper »» 09:48 <Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 758.8 09:50 <NihabaAshi> :( 09:51 It's trying hard to shake me out of my Short :( 09:52 Covered all ER2 Short @ 759.20 --> + 0.6 09:53 Long ER2 @ 759.50 -> large size <RussellDaytrade> some follow on IB outages of late, I did some looking after Fridays close in my records, and found that the last time that I experienced some outages was 9-19-06, between the hours of approx 12:30-1:30 CT... <Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 760.3 -> Add 09:54 <RussellDaytrade> the er wasa trading between 721 and 725 during that hour... <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 760.60 --> + 1.1 09:55 <Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 761 --> - 2.9 <RussellDaytrade> abd by the next morning, it traded as high as 744, a mere three trading hours later (regular trading hours) <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1729.50 --> - 7.5 «« paper »» :(( Buys NQ @ 1730.25 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 761.20 --> + 1.7 <szubaark> hope im not chasing here 09:56 <RussellDaytrade> the market backdrop then was similar to yesterdays, (Fridays), and while I do not expect the move will be as significant, the point I am making is their outages can be tracked, (and must be), and doing so can provide valuable and actionable clues... 09:58 also, while I did not experience an outage on these dates, on ET, others did on 10-4 and 10-10, there's a thread there reagrding those. 09:59 <NihabaAshi> I was expecting to get to WRB pt2 levels today but so far...only WRB pt1 levels are holding :( <jperl> ER2 at VWAP 759.80 10:00 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 759.70 --> + 0.2 Long ER2 @ 761.20 -> large size 10:01 <szubaark> got shook <yvberj> Went long ER 760. Out @ 761.5 <NihabaAshi> szu...same here on my first two trades... Doesn't look like I'm going to catch any trends today...will change my game plan and take quick profits when possible. 10:02 Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 762.00 --> + 0.8 10:05 Exited ER2 Long @ 762.30 --> + 1.1 Holding 1 contract just in case I get lucky and caught a trend. <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1737 --> + 6.75 «« paper »» 10:07 damn.. that WRB -7 stop i took still puts me in the red so far :( 10:09 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 762.6 «« paper »» 10:14 <yvberj> Long ER 762.5 out @ 763.2 10:18 <RussellDaytrade> model setup target 760 in approx 40 minutes from high 10:19 trade target price 761.5 or so 10:21 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 761.90 --> + 0.7 Shook me out :( 10:22 Taking a break...breakfast time :) * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 761.6 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:24 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1738.25 «« paper »» 10:29 <yvberj> Short ER 760.5 covered 759.5 10:33 Shorts ES @ ER 760.5 «« testing »» 10:36 Covered all ES Short @ 759.5 --> + ER 760.5 - 759.5 «« testing »» <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 761 «« paper »» 10:46 not my setup, just trading it will scale short if rises 1 point scale 10:47 will cover 760ish <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1741.50 --> + 3.25 «« paper »» 10:52 <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 760.2 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» will short 762.5 if it gets there 10:56 buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 762,5 «« paper »» 10:57 <jperl> Time for a break.....here are this mornings executions... 11:10 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-06/JP ERL_011.png 11:11 <RussellDaytrade> cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 11:12 missed my entry twice, i think that was it for this climb 11:17 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:21 <RussellDaytrade> sneak attack! 11:29 Shorts ER2 @ 762.5 «« paper »» Covered all ER2 Short @ 761.8 --> + 0.7 «« paper »» 11:32 <yvberj> Getting whipsawed. Gave back AM profits. Time to sit and wait. 11:35 <RussellDaytrade> mosel setup short from 762.5 at 9:30 mnt, target 759.8 or so, in approx 43 minutes from high, with a secondary entry short that should accelerate into target, same timeframe target time on secondary entry 11:53 Shorts ER2 @ 762.3 «« paper »» 11:57 Shorts ER2 @ 763.2 -> Add «« paper »» 12:14 Covered all ER2 Short @ 762.6 --> + 0.3 «« paper »» 12:15 Shorts ER2 @ 762.8 «« paper »» 12:17 buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 764.3 «« paper »» 12:19 cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 12:28 targets just reset, 759.6 in approx 64 minutes from high sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 760 «« paper »» 12:29 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:33 <Brutus> Yawn :) does anybody have an analysis or call for the afternoon? 12:55 <RussellDaytrade> i think its more likely it carries, in a round-about way to the close, maybe not any higher of note, but holds most the gains... 12:58 we went down, (in the am) and that didn't hold, so now we go up?? to see if that works.. 12:59 i expect it'll run outta gas by tomorrow am or so, (the upside) you got an outlook brut? 13:00 <Brutus> Thanks Russell, would like to here others views as well. hear <RussellDaytrade> still lookin for this recent call to work out, 759.8 by another 15-20 minutes, or at least a good portion of it, will settle for 761.5 13:01 <Chilly> diabolical scenario would be that ER2 3m rising wedge breaks after third test of top and clunks to target at 758ish, then tests LOD and gap 13:02 this pivot at 762.85 holding tough though 13:03 <Brutus> Thanks Chilly, anybody else? have a stab for fun. 13:04 <Chilly> market doesn't appear to mind oil up over $1 ... likes M&A announcements <Brutus> I agree wth your diabolical scenario Chilly, will be looking out for it. 13:09 <Chilly> shorts need follow thru here and now, imho ... muahahaha (diabolical laughter) ;) 13:10 or 765 is next stop on the uptown bus 13:11 <RussellDaytrade> time expiration on last target, new target 760 in approx 60 minutes from last high at 10.52 mnt or approx 45 minutes from now 13:12 sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 760.5 «« paper »» <Brutus> I'd say 765 first, but I may miss the buss. 13:13 <RussellDaytrade> if it clears the highs, likely run up a buck or more buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 764.5 «« paper »» 13:16 <Chilly> agree, 20EMA 5min holding up nicely for longs, players buying every pullback but they need to bust HOD or some may quit trying and shorts will pounce 13:18 <RussellDaytrade> sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 761.5 «« paper »» 13:29 cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 13:35 Shorts ER2 @ 764.3 -> Add «« paper »» 13:36 Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 763.4 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» <Chilly> way to pick the high of the spike Russell ... Niha would be proud :) 13:37 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:45 <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 761.7 --> - 0.2 «« paper »» 13:53 hey, that should be 1.1 up, tha twas a short from 762.8 13:54 thanks, got lucky there, sat in the other for almost two hours. 13:55 they usually spike it down at some point, if one can stand the wait 13:56 time expiration on last target.... new target from 764.3 down to 761 in approx 60 minutes, but that has mostly fullfilled, tradingwise. 14:01 that was 60 minutes measured from high point time will try again near 763.5, short 14:03 buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 763.5 «« paper »» buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 764 «« paper »» cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 14:04 Shorts ER2 @ 763.3 «« paper »» actually, missed that entry, typing elsewhewre i'm re-looking fro that 761 target again, since it spiked up and created a better RR profile, that even if target doesn't fully fulfill, amy be good for a buck-buck and a half or do from high just now 14:10 Covered all ER2 Short @ 763.3 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:14 Shorts ER2 @ 763.6 «« paper »» 14:15 2 $ scale on add 14:16 will close at 763 .tes 762.5 14:19 sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 762.5 «« paper »» there's about 15 minutes remaiming on my last target, hoping it spikes down/accelerates into target, market so strong that i give it littel probabilty, but it could happen.... 14:22 feel like selling more, just don't wanna be short all at one price 14:24 new target, 760 in 41 minutes from high just now 14:27 <jperl> You a cycle trader RD? 14:28 <RussellDaytrade> i don't know. don't think so. if they happen to be cycles, they're fairly short, ie, intraday periods, lastinf from 30 minutes to several hours 14:29 <jperl> So what's the 41 minutes time period based on? 14:30 <RussellDaytrade> if you've watched the trades i palced over the last several days, you will see that i generally look to sell if it's up, and buy when it's down 14:31 i model i've developed and use, based on price action 14:32 i am certain it has cyclicality to it, just haven't put it into those terms before looks like i'll be gettin that chance to add at a 2$ scale up after all! 14:33 buy stop to enter long ER2 @ 765.5 «« paper »» 14:34 cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 14:35 Shorts ER2 @ 764.9 -> Add «« paper »» 14:36 what's everybody else doin? 14:41 <jperl> not much <RussellDaytrade> let me eyeball vwap, i say 762 an change 14:43 <yvberj> Long ER764.5 sold 765.7 14:47 <jperl> VWAP ER2 761.53 14:48 <RussellDaytrade> thx, that was a reasonable estimate.... 14:49 new target, 762.5 in approx29 minutes from high just now 14:50 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:54 <RussellDaytrade> sell stop to enter short ER2 @ 763 «« paper »» 14:55 Shorts ER2 @ 765.9 -> Add «« paper »» 14:59 <yvberj> Russ - The way this mkt. is moving, I don't think you will see your sht. Even though it is overbought. It's also at a ressistance pt. 15:00 <RussellDaytrade> yep, i'm on full dammage-control now, at 3 contract limit, will close /reduce when at/near BE 15:01 i've jumped the gun on my setups, haven't let them fully setup (early) 15:03 not looking for profit on this trade, just to mitiagte dammage <yvberj> I've done that many times. And it always cost me. <RussellDaytrade> think we may be borrowing from tomorrow, at this point 15:05 <yo> gn all <jperl> enough for today....here are the rest of the trades....not much this afternoon.... 15:06 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-06/JP ERL_012.png 15:07 <yvberj> 3 Sorry error 15:08 <Brutus> Russell your call was right. They wont even let this drop into the close. 15:37 Must need a good final election headline <RussellDaytrade> didn't think it would get this strong brut <Brutus> This is strange behaviour imo 15:39 <RussellDaytrade> looking for a quick downdraft of a couple bucks in here where I may be able to close the last two adds at near BE <Brutus> Yeah I just gave back all of my profits for the day :( 15:40 Was up $700 in the first 20 mins. <RussellDaytrade> thats a rough giveback, glad you were up to begin with 15:41 <Brutus> Told you Friday the trend was changing to up 15:43 Just didnt expect such a strong start. <RussellDaytrade> Niha seems to have a nack of reversing his positions and catching a good trade, even immediately after a trade going against him... <Brutus> or finish on the first day, you could say Yeah he uses the morning volatility 15:44 <RussellDaytrade> makes me think he uses a loss to indicatethe direction is going the other way <Brutus> its almost like a breakout trade As the Er always carries such a range 15:45 Just have to gauge the direction quick enough <yvberj> I know that sht. didn't work for you Russ. I've been on the sidelines wait for it myself. Had a prof. this AM, gave it back, then came back with a big $100. prof. 15:46 <RussellDaytrade> yes, had a better read/luckier read this am, pushed the luck 15:47 <NihabaAshi_away> [15:44] <RussellDaytrade> makes me think he uses a loss to indicatethe direction is going the other way * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi <NihabaAshi> Actually, I use a WRB and volatility analysis to help me decide if I should reverse a losing trade into the opposite direction. 15:48 <RussellDaytrade> if one has the fortitude, which i most definitely do not, these trades will work out sometimes <NihabaAshi> In addition, I sometimes reverse because I got a pattern signal that I do not have the stomach to fight nor get wishful thinking it will fail. 15:49 <yvberj> You may be getting your sht. now. <NihabaAshi> Without that volatility...I'm a sitting duck if the trade is a loser. In that particular situtation, I either see my initial stop loss protection hit or I need to get another pattern signal to tell me its time to reverse the position into the opposite direction. 15:50 Simply, I won't reverse a trade just because its a loser. WRB, Volatility Change or Pattern Signal are the only things I use to determine if I should reverse a losing trade. 15:51 <RussellDaytrade> without knowing all ythe signals you like to use Niha, it was my quick read on it. 15:52 <NihabaAshi> Three different types of "contingency plan" when things don't go as planned. <RussellDaytrade> kinda admire your abilty to change direction quickly <NihabaAshi> Also, my bias plays a role in it too. For example, today I was bullish but my first trade was a short... 15:53 Had it started going against me as a loser...I don't hang around to long to see if my stop gets hit. Mainly because my bias starts to have impact on my losing positions. 15:54 That's when I try to focus in on any confirmation (WRB, Volatility Change or Pattern Signal) to get in line with my bias. <RussellDaytrade> yes, i find myself trading against my own bias many times <yvberj> 5 15:55 <RussellDaytrade> like today! 15:56 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 766.6 --> - 0.7 «« paper »» 15:57 <Brutus> Ok cul8r boys and girls. 16:06 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <RussellDaytrade> so long brut <Brutus> You going live soon? 16:07 <yvberj> Have a good eve. everyone. 16:08 <RussellDaytrade> hope so, send me some crocodile juice, that will help to fortify me! Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 765.6 --> - 2.6 «« paper »» <Brutus> :) l8r, funny how the sell off is after the close, pricks. 16:09 <RussellDaytrade> that should be -.6 close, one more at 763.6 ok, will deal with the last one tomorrow, gn all 16:12 <NihabaAshi> Take care all and have a good one. 16:15 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 16:16 * DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Nov 06 16:37:26 2006 16:37 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) Sponsor: Sponsor:
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