#FuturesTrades October 31st Friday 2008 Trade Log

Trade Posting Chat Log Info: My name is M.A. Perry (a.k.a. online as NihabaAshi - martial arts & Japanese Candlestick term) and I am the moderator of #FuturesTrades.

Simply, my job is to keep the peace and ensure #FuturesTrades is a useful community of traders from around the world that have gather in a virtual trading office.

In addition, I personally use the below chat log as feedback for critical trading information that's not available when I review my broker statements nor any statistical analysis of my trading.  To maintain the usefulness of the below chat log, all of my trades were posted in real-time within 5 seconds after entry or exit unless otherwise noted in the log. 

  To read behind the scenes details about my trades posted below such as explanation of position size, stop management, chart interval choice et cetera...click here.

Further, although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based methodology (very objective) that involves price action only trading (no indicators). However, some of my trades are intuition via market experience in combo with many concepts from my rule based methodology.

  My own current performance record and broker profit/loss statement is posted at the bottom of today's log.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains trades posted in real-time by #FuturesTrades members including all of my own trades that were posted in real-time. 

Last of all, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

	#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Time Zone Info	Chat Log below is eastern standard time (est.) - New York City, U.S.A and/or Montréal, Canada time zone.
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info ->  No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm
	Session Start: Fri Oct 31 08:57:03 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now	talking in #futurestrades	08:57
<@X>	[NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<rickf>	gm	09:07
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info ->  Some members (including me) explain basic details about their trades posted in #FuturesTrades @ http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=58.0 and there's a link there to take you to #FuturesTrades archived logs if you're interested in reviewing past trades or market commentary posted in #FuturesTrades.	09:16
<PapaJon>	gm all	09:18
<+rickf>	hea	09:20
	heya
<futurible>	GM ALL	09:24
<drt>	gm everyone	09:27
<trader0101>	gm	09:30
<Nesi>	Shorts ES @ 950.00 «« paper »»
<ItalianSharp>	morning all	09:31
<werner>	gm IS ,all
<+rickf>	gm
<TraderG>	gm every 1	09:32
<+werner>	hi rickf	09:33
	gm t
<T-stop>	gm all	09:36
<silo>	Shorts YM @ 9125	09:40
<+silo>	1
<+trader0101>	Shorts ES @ 947.75 «« paper »»
	Covered all ES Short @ 949.75 --> - 2 «« paper »»	09:41
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9130 -> Add
	Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 9145 --> - 15	09:42
<+trader0101>	Shorts ES @ 945.50 «« paper »»	09:43
<+ItalianSharp>	spike from hell
<szubaark>	Shorts ES @ 945.50 «« paper »»
<+ItalianSharp>	report must have leaked out early	09:44
<+trader0101>	Covered all ES Short @ 947 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»
	whats with the markets today
<+silo>	Covered all YM Short @ 9096 --> + 29	09:45
<+trader0101>	Shorts ES @ 944 «« paper »»	09:46
<+silo>	range day. have to be fast
	9095 is support
<+szubaark>	Covered all Short ES at 945.50 --> 0 «« paper »»	09:48
	im gonna watch this a little longer, if Price Action doesnt improve Ill do something else
<+trader0101>	Covered all ES Short @ 947 --> - 3 «« paper »»	09:51
	out of here
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9128	09:52
	1
<+trader0101>	Long ER2 @ 506.2 «« paper »»	09:53
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9124 -> Add	09:55
<+trader0101>	exit stop moved to breakeven (+1 tick) ER2 @ 506.3 «« paper »»	09:56
<+silo>	Covered all YM Short @ 9105 --> + 42
	have to be fast today ... still range bound... and 9095 is support	09:57
<+trader0101>	exit stop raised ER2 @ 507.2 «« paper »»	09:59
	exit stop raised ER2 @ 508.2 «« paper »»	10:00
	exit stop raised ER2 @ 509.2 «« paper »»	10:01
	exit stop raised ER2 @ 510.0 «« paper »»	10:02
<+Nesi>	Covered ES Short @ 952.00 --> - 2 «« paper »»
	Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 952.00 «« paper »»
<+trader0101>	exit stop raised ER2 @ 511.2 «« paper »»
	Exited all ER2 Long @ 511 --> + 4.8 «« paper »»	10:03
<+Nesi>	Exited ES Long @ 953.00 --> + 1 «« paper »»	10:04
	Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 953.00 «« paper »»
	Shorts ES @ 952.00 -> Add «« paper »»	10:06
<+rickf>	wow first person to trade the ER2 in a while	10:07
<+trader0101>	well es is so erratic that er2/tf looks tame by comparison	10:10
	what do you trade rick?
<+rickf>	es normally	10:11
	dax on paper but not for a while
	might move to ym or nq at some point for variety
<+trader0101>	have you tried the DJ stoxx?
<+rickf>	no
<+trader0101>	DAX was much better today
	es on the other hand is far from normal
<+rickf>	DJ stoxx or eurostox 50?	10:12
<+trader0101>	on ninja/zenfire its called FESX
<+rickf>	eurostix 50
<+trader0101>	i assumed dj stoxx, ok thx - as long as you can trade the intrsument. The name does help at times ;)	10:13
<+rickf>	looks quieter
<+trader0101>	all the traders went voting - something different to do i guess	10:14
<+rickf>	less volume tho ... will watch it	10:15
<+trader0101>	and i will quit and do something worthwhile like watch paint dry
<+rickf>	lol
	1 tick = 10 euro = 12,.73	10:16
	comprable to ES moves
<+Nesi>	Shorts ES @ 955.00 -> Add «« paper »»	10:24
<futurible>	Shorts ES @ 9160 «« paper »»	10:35
<+futurible>	error
<+rickf>	weird day
<+futurible>	Shorts YM @ 9160 «« paper »»	10:36
<+trader0101>	Shorts ES @ 952 «« paper »»	10:37
	Covered all ES Short @ 952 --> 0 «« paper »»	10:38
<+futurible>	Covered 1/3 YM Short @ 9130 --> + 30 «« paper »»	10:46
	Covered 1/3 YM Short @ 9140 --> + 20 «« paper »»	10:49
	exit stop moved to breakeven YM @ 9160 «« paper »»	10:51
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 9155 --> + 5 «« paper »»	10:53
<+rickf>	taking a long break ... gym, errands, lunch. back later	10:54
<+trader0101>	Long ES @ 951.25 «« paper »»	10:56
<+futurible>	Shorts YM @ 9165 «« paper »»	10:57
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9158
	2
<+trader0101>	Exited all ES Long @ 960 --> + 8.75 «« paper »»	10:58
	oops
	Exited all ES Long @ 950 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»
<+futurible>	Covered all YM Short @ 9160 --> + 5 «« paper »»	10:59
	Long YM @ 9170 «« paper »»	11:00
<+silo>	Covered all YM Short @ 9170 --> - 12	11:01
<+futurible>	Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 9180 --> + 10 «« paper »»
	Exited Remainder YM Long @ 9170 --> 0 «« paper »»	11:03
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> Some members (including me) explain basic details about their trades posted in #FuturesTrades @ http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=58.0 and there's a link there to take you to #FuturesTrades archived logs if you're interested in reviewing past trades or market commentary posted in #FuturesTrades.	11:22
<MK>	Shorts ES @ 963.5 «« paper »»	11:31
<+MK>	Shorts ES @ 964.5 -> Add «« paper »»	11:41
	Shorts ES @ 965.5 -> Add «« paper »»
	Covered all ES Short @ 958.5 --> + 12 «« paper »»	12:15
* codehead_afk	is now known as codehead	12:17
<futurible>	Long YM @ 9205 «« paper »»	12:27
<+futurible>	Exited 1/3 YM Long @ 9225 --> + 20 «« paper »»	12:28
<+silo>	Long YM @ 9031
	Exited all YM Long @ 9220 --> + 189	12:30
	weird
	out 9220
	-11
	Shorts YM @ 9209	12:31
	2
<+futurible>	Exited Remainder YM Long @ 9205 --> 0 «« paper »»
	Shorts YM @ 9200 «« paper »»
	Covered 1/3 YM Short @ 9190 --> + 10 «« paper »»	12:34
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 9200 --> 0 «« paper »»	12:35
	Shorts YM @ 9190 «« paper »»	12:36
	Covered all YM Short @ 9208 --> - 18 «« paper »»	12:40
<+silo>	Covered YM Short @ 9210 --> - 1
	Reverse and Enter Long YM @ 9210
	Exited all YM Long @ 9211 --> + 1	12:42
<+futurible>	Long YM @ 9215 «« paper »»	12:44
	Exited all YM Long @ 9195 --> - 20 «« paper »»	12:46
<+MK>	Shorts ES @ 963 «« paper »»	13:03
	Shorts ES @ 965 -> Add «« paper »»	13:07
	Shorts ES @ 966.25 -> Add «« paper »»	13:17
	Shorts ES @ 968 -> Add «« paper »»	13:20
	looking for some retrace at 971	13:21
	Shorts ES @ 969.5 -> Add «« paper »»
	Shorts ES @ 972.75 -> Add «« paper »»	13:23
	Shorts ES @ 975.75 -> Add «« paper »»	13:24
<silo>	picking top son
<+silo>	soon
	get ready
<+codehead>	nice breakout of the big bullish wedge on the 120 min chart YM
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9340	13:25
	one
<+MK>	still strong - will sell all the way to 990
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9337 -> Add
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> Some members (including me) explain basic details about their trades posted in #FuturesTrades @ http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=58.0 and there's a link there to take you to #FuturesTrades archived logs if you're interested in reviewing past trades or market commentary posted in #FuturesTrades.
<+silo>	Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 9315 --> + 22	13:27
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 9321 --> + 19
	top picked	13:28
<+MK>	Shorts ES @ 978.25 -> Add «« paper »»	13:33
	Shorts ES @ 979 -> Add «« paper »»	13:34
<pdays>	Shorts ES @ 975.5	13:44
<+codehead>	possible pb target 9284	13:45
	is it can dip under last low	13:46
	hm, 9284 because it's same pb as the earlier move before it--however, it's also exactly .500 retracement	13:52
	so if it gets there, it's likely reverse
	hm, also the earlier top (9285)	13:54
<+pdays>	Covered all ES Short @ 973.0 --> + 2.5	13:55
<+silo>	Long YM @ 9340	13:56
	2
<+T-stop>	bernanke on	14:04
<+ItalianSharp>	we should rise higher from here
<+T-stop>	feels that way
<+ItalianSharp>	i cant see eminis dropping hard right now...need anotehr spike up first...but who knows, anything can happen
	YM needs to clear 360 to have a chance at new highs	14:05
	here it is	14:07
	we should see new highs
	especially ES is very bullish
<+silo>	Exited all YM Long @ 9375 --> + 35	14:08
<+ItalianSharp>	silo, that was a safe area to exit	14:09
	bewcause we could retrace a few pts before new highs are made - if they are made -
<+silo>	yeah
	i thought so too
	:)
<+ItalianSharp>	basically...either you were willing to go thru 20pt retracement...or get out
	that's the price to pay for bigger profits	14:10
<intowin>	strage we didnt back test some of that +900 move yet
<+ItalianSharp>	and usually, when i find myself in the spot, i hate it
	:)
<+silo>	either give back profits and let it go to 0 or negative... or hold for 60-100 pts winner
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info ->  No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm
<+ItalianSharp>	we should see new highs
	yes...no pain no gain
	<intowin> strage we didnt back test some of that +900 move yet	14:11
	we will, dont worry about that
	and it'll be very soon IMO
	maybe next week
<+intowin>	hope so I am only playing long these days and exited yesterday	14:12
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9371
	2
<+ItalianSharp>	i didn't expect today to be another up day...i too was expecting a test of that huge rally from tuesday
	however...i changed my mind quickly as soon as i saw no big sellers	14:13
	sellers must be somewhere higher
	heck...if it aint going down, sellers arent interested at these levels
	we'll know when sellers step in
	they make a lot of noise
	:=
	:)
	big sellers likely lie between 980-990 for ES	14:15
<+silo>	Covered all YM Short @ 9326 --> + 45	14:16
<+ItalianSharp>	this was some selling...for time i see some sellers since 1230	14:17
	first time
<+silo>	daily profit target reached	14:19
<+rickf>	back
<+ItalianSharp>	it's late friday, it's been an up week...and we are dropping...panic selling into the close?	14:21
<+intowin>	hope so	14:22
<+ItalianSharp>	i am not sure there are many bulls willing to take positions into the weekend
<+intowin>	missed profits are as bad ass losses for me
<+rickf>	sheesh didnt miss much of anything
<+intowin>	A
<+rickf>	owell :)
<+intowin>	sorry as
<+ItalianSharp>	we could still rebound hard	14:24
	weird things have been happening lately
<+intowin>	they have more balls than me	14:25
<+codehead>	big oil reversal	14:26
	green
	steep pop	14:27
<+ItalianSharp>	the thing about price action right now is this:
	we've build some decent support today
	so far
	however, this last down move no longer looks like a retracement
	it had some good selling in it
	i wouldnt be surprised to see chop thru the close	14:28
<+codehead>	crude rocking	14:29
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9334
	1
	Shorts YM @ 9329 -> Add	14:31
<+ItalianSharp>	this is exactly what i meant...we are stuck between support and resistance	14:33
<+rickf>	lol - blogger @ TSCM on volatility:
	"You know it's a market out of whack when CNBC reports that futures down 90 are off their worst levels and you actually wonder if they meant the Dow or the S&P." --brianc400
<+ItalianSharp>	50pt range for YM right now
	silo you still short?	14:35
	this thing could still make new highs...it's anyone's game right now
<+silo>	Covered all YM Short @ 9355 --> - 47	14:36
	:\
	looked so pretty before too	14:37
<+ItalianSharp>	yep
<+silo>	wanted to let it ride a little bit more
<+ItalianSharp>	one minute later it looked ugly
<+rickf>	980.50 ES HOD
<+ItalianSharp>	tough area to trade
	stuck between two poles
	lots of fighting until new highs are made or we break down hard
<+silo>	Long YM @ 9360	14:44
	1
<+ItalianSharp>	big resistance here silo, be careful
<+silo>	yeahi know	14:45
	one only
	scaling in if we break out
<+ItalianSharp>	you will know soon
<+silo>	we also had big support down there... so tough to see which way it's oging :(
<+ItalianSharp>	key areas usually let you know soon
	big support down there, right	14:46
	not here
	:)
	this is bears territory for now...you are in the forest with the bears...watch out
	:)
<+codehead>	woah, Ym weekly: 9396 hod is exactly .382 retracement of last down leg	14:47
	11853-7878	14:48
<+ItalianSharp>	fibonacci must be getting wet in his grave
	:)
<+silo>	Exited YM Long @ 9340 --> - 20
	Reverse and Enter Short YM @ 9340
	one only
<+ItalianSharp>	now buyers step in	14:49
	brutal area to trade
	glad i am done
<+silo>	Shorts YM @ 9329 -> Add
	Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 9350 --> - 21	14:51
	still trapped in a triangle
	just dom something already lol
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 9360 --> - 20	14:52
<+ItalianSharp>	silo, tough area...easy to get caught on the wrong side of things there
	the key is to spot those area before entering a trade	14:53
	or else, you'll get chopped up to death
	easier said than done
<+silo>	haha yeah
	it's ok... i'm still positive by a little
	i needed to place at least 10 trades with my TS	14:54
	so i dont have to pay for the platform fee
<+ItalianSharp>	true, but it always sucks to lose money without the market going anywhere
<+rickf>	10 trades perday or per month?
<+ItalianSharp>	month
<+rickf>	oh
<+silo>	per month
<+rickf>	you got nothing to worry about silo :)	14:55
<+MK>	es prob go to 990
<+ItalianSharp>	for 10 per day i would want escort service once every two weeks on top of the platform fee
	:)
<+rickf>	lol
<+ItalianSharp>	this is good buying	14:59
	steady buying at every dip
	we should move higher
	that selling wave that showed up around 1400 was quickly matched by a new buying wave
	hence...those sellers will likely give up if we make new highs	15:00
	one of my prior comments stated that potential real sellers lie between 980 and 990 for ES	15:01
	let's see what happens now
	should get interesting
<+MK>	emd gave a slight clue to this upside	15:03
<+ItalianSharp>	MK, what was the clue?
<+MK>	Shorts ES @ 982.75 -> Add «« paper »»	15:04
<+ItalianSharp>	ohoh...NQ just filled in an opening gap from a few days ago
	i totally missed that clue	15:05
<+MK>	on the 15 min it had broken the top while es was testing it
<+ItalianSharp>	MK, why did you go short?	15:06
	nice short by the way
<+MK>	because i said earlier that i was going to sell all the way to 990	15:07
<+ItalianSharp>	sorry, didnt read your comments
<palmer>	i think we can goto 1045
<+ItalianSharp>	yes, 980-990 is a resistance range for ES
<+palmer>	befre we start selling off again
<+ItalianSharp>	palmer, of course we can....but i think we visit 860ish first	15:08
<+MK>	Monday I think will be big selloff
<+palmer>	well i was think 1045 area before 850
<+ItalianSharp>	i think 860ish and than that area you mentioned
<+palmer>	think next week early will be bullshit
<+ItalianSharp>	rallies look a bit exhausted
<+palmer>	and set up shorts
<+ItalianSharp>	by the way, what kind of impact do US elections have on daytrading?	15:09
	I never daytraded during US elections
	no experience with that
	do markets get more volatile?
<+palmer>	i bet no volume monday and tuesday
<+ItalianSharp>	or is it already discounted that Obama will be next President?
<+palmer>	i hope we move higher those 2 days
<breakout>	tues night v as result come in
<+breakout>	can b equiv of bomb go off	15:10
	then pos reverse
<+rickf>	wed will either be totally wild or quiet as everyone is hungover or sleeping in
	some sectors may show strength tho
<+palmer>	pretty bullshit day actually	15:11
	higher highs all day
<+ItalianSharp>	november 4th right?
<+palmer>	the bought all the pullbacks
<+breakout>	y	15:12
<+ItalianSharp>	tuesday...i hate that...it's in the middle of the week
	the following week we also have veteran's day
	then thanksgiving
	busy november with holidays and elections
	1hr to the close and we could still end up largely in the red	15:14
	never take anything for granted with this market
	sometimes i go take a piss and when i come back things look completely different	15:15
<+MK>	yeah like two days ago last 30 min huge selloff
<+ItalianSharp>	need to speed up our thinking process and change-of-bias process
	markets move quickly so should our minds
<+rickf>	yes - absolute neurotic market. i've been eyeing bullish setups, blinked, and sudenly seen a compelete reversal	15:16
<+ItalianSharp>	yep...lots of traders - including myself when i am mentally slow - get caught off guard by these sudden changes of direction
	also...	15:17
	volatility picked up big time since 1330
	which is an indication of more participants being interested at those price levels
<+rickf>	here we go....	15:19
<+MK>	Covered all ES Short @ 967.25 --> + 11.25 «« paper »»	15:20
<Nesi>	nice
<+rickf>	vn
<+ItalianSharp>	isnt it amazing? it took bulls 2 hrs to build that price rise...and it took bears 20mins to erase it	15:21
	:)
<+Nesi>	feat stronger than greed :)
<futurible>	Shorts YM @ 9260 «« paper »»	15:41
<+futurible>	Covered 1/3 YM Short @ 9240 --> + 20 «« paper »»	15:42
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 9255 --> + 5 «« paper »»
<+rickf>	ok guys have a good weekend - see you next week	15:45
<Austin-lunch>	I think i just witnessed a miracle, price was so volatile that it went two directions at the same time.	15:47
<+werner>	good wk all and see you all next week	15:53
<breakout>	hi	15:54
<+ItalianSharp>	For the first time in a long while - since 7/18/08 - eminis have a decent bullish week	16:12
	this week could set a temporary bottom for another few weeks
	dow 10K might be reached...let's see what happens next	16:13
	good weekend all
<@X>	#FuturesTrades Info ->  Some members (including me) explain basic details about their trades posted in #FuturesTrades @ http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=58.0 and there's a link there to take you to #FuturesTrades archived logs if you're interested in reviewing past trades or market commentary posted in #FuturesTrades. Session Close: Sat Nov 01 00:00:00 2008	23:49
Trading Edge:  Strategies	If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.
	Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures EMD, ES and NQ   

ICE Emini TF (formerly CME ER2)

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

 questions@thestrategylab.com

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