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#FuturesTrades October 29th Monday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+12.00	+342.50	+3011.00
$1,200	$34,250	$301,100

Profitable Trade

0955am - 1002am cst

Losing Trade

0949am - 0951am cst

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Mon Oct 29 08:32:47 2007 central standard time (Chicago) Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 08:32

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<NihabaAshi> A lot of green markets this morning so far. 08:33

<Nesi> hi Niha

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 829.20 -> large size 08:34

<werner> gm all 08:35

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 830.00 --> + 0.8

<Nesi> nice start 08:36

<NihabaAshi> I was a pure intuition trade...no pattern signal. 08:38

Hmmm...my IRC clock is behind one hour :( 08:39

Trading Edge:
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If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<szubaark> are we moving clocks today?

<NihabaAshi> Yet, my clock is accurate...very weird. 08:40

<pdays> next weekend..suz

<NihabaAshi> Meant...my computer clock is accurate but my IRC clock is behind.

Maybe the Othernet folks got their clock times mixed up.

Anybody else having the same clock problem like me ??? 08:41

<Brutus> no

<NihabaAshi> Must be me then...

<szubaark> i had to move my clock 1 hour behind for data to be collected 08:42

<tookZgain> the old daylight saving time was over weekend 08:43

<NihabaAshi> Ahhh...thanks tookz 08:46

Shorts ER2 @ 829.40 -> small size 08:49

trying something new here

Covered ER2 Short @ 830.40 --> - 1 08:51

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 830.40

Exited ER2 Long @ 830.60 --> + 0.2 08:53

Shorts ER2 @ 830.30 -> small size 08:55

<ItalianSharp> i guess we are doomed to see this kind of price action until the FOMC 08:57

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 828.90 --> + 1.4 08:58

<pat255> missed the S entry ..

vn N

<jperl> anybody lose IB connection?

<pat255> not here

<jperl> it's back again 08:59

<NihabaAshi> volatility not very good so far this morning

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1548 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Will lower my risk exposure via trading 1 contract only after I close the current position. 09:00

<Nesi> Shorts ES @ 828.50 «« paper »»

<pat255> fed this pm?

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 828.50 «« paper »» 09:01

<szubaark> Covered 1/2 Short ES at 1546.50 --> + 1.5 «« paper »»

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1548 «« paper »» 09:02

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.7 --> + 1.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 826.70 --> + 3.6

<pat255> vvn

<NihabaAshi> That was a volatility spike around 10am est...

On no news???

<Nesi> Shorts YM @ 13880 -> small size «« paper »» 09:03

<szubaark> watching for possible ES gap close

<NihabaAshi> Dark Hammer Line on 1min ER2 chart...be careful. 09:04

<szubaark> Nice followthru so far to the downside.

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 826.50 -> small size 09:06

volatility declining fast... 09:09

I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon. 09:10

Hopefully price goes up and not down during the spike

Exited ER2 Long @ 825.60 --> - 0.9 09:11

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 825.60

:( 09:12

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 826.40 -> small size «« paper »»

<pat255> cho chop here

<NihabaAshi> I didn't see any support for that little spike that took price upwards... 09:14

still holding my short

:( 09:15

Geeesh 09:16

price action is a little weird. 09:17

Big Dark WRB in Oil...

something news like is occurring in the market.

Gold now following 09:18

<pat255> no idea N...

<NihabaAshi> DAX holding it weight.

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 823.2 --> + 3.2 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 822.90 --> + 2.7 09:19

<pat255> vn indeed ...N cry & mkt gives in ..lol

<NihabaAshi> :)

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1543.75 --> + 4.25 «« paper »»

<pat255> when i cry mkt punishes me ..:( 09:20

<NihabaAshi> I call them up and cashed in one of a hundred or so favors the market owes me :)

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 822.5 «« paper »»

<pat255> :)

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 822.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:22

nice script, Niha 09:24

i am practicing with it

Shorts ER2 @ 823.4 «« Scalp »» 09:27

<NihabaAshi> It has it's limitations 09:28

There are better ones out there on the net other traders are using if you search hard enough.

Some even works as a third party app with your broker execution platform. 09:29

<Nesi> this is good enough for me, its simple and it works

<szubaark> Didnt Kelly code this script? wonder what hes up to now

<NihabaAshi> Whatever trades occurs in your account...they automatically get posted in here via the script.

Yeah...kelly coded the original script.

I've modified it several times as I learn a little more about the script. 09:30

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 823.8 -> Add «« Scalp »»

<jperl> done for this morning....trades here.... 09:33

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-10-29/JP ERL_0121.jpg

<Nesi> nice scalps, jperl 09:34

<jperl> tx

<NihabaAshi> Oil rebounded just as fast as it had dropped. 09:37

That brought some stability back to the Eminis.

However, had Gold responded upwards...Eminis would be rising instead of trying to drop lower. 09:38

Shorts ER2 @ 822.70 -> small size 09:39

intuition trade

Covered ER2 Short @ 823.10 --> - 0.4 09:41

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 823.10

something spooked the markets and I'm going to assume its "news related" in one of the key markets. 09:45

Therefore, I"m goikng to assume ER2 will attempt a retracement attempt back upwards at/near the prior price area prior to the news event. 09:46

That retracement usually occurs as the market attempts to "price it in". 09:47

Exited ER2 Long @ 823.80 --> + 0.7 09:49

:(

Got bucked off that ride

Dark Hammer Line on 1min chart 09:54

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 821.6 --> + 4 «« Scalp »»

<NihabaAshi> be careful

<szubaark> nice nesi

<Nesi> Covered all YM Short @ 13869 --> - 13045.6 «« Scalp »»

that did not work well.. :/ 09:55

<NihabaAshi> Back to back Dark Hammer Lines 09:56

<pat255> y on 1 min ?

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 821.90 -> small size

pat...yes

<pat255> k vn 09:57

<Nesi> nice feel, Niha

<pat255> trying to c what u are looking at

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 822.60 --> + 0.7

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1543.75 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Tough to hold on to Long positions today. 10:00

<pat255> y 10:02

<szubaark> just looking for a counter thrust upwards from this mornings sell-off here

Expecting Volatility spike, hopefully to upside, Im Long 10:03

<NihabaAshi> I've been looking for a decent Long all day. 10:04

So far...small profits on my Longs in comparison to bigger profits on my Shorts.

I also have a bullish bias today.

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 822.50 «« Scalp »» 10:05

<NihabaAshi> Anyways, I'm slowly becoming more bearish as the pressure continues on Oil after it may that upside move above $93 10:07

<szubaark> Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1544.50 --> + 0.75 «« paper »» 10:08

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1543.75 «« paper »»

Real tight Price Action here on ES

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 823.40 --> + 0.9 «« Scalp »» 10:09

<szubaark> Is this here the counter thrust move or sellers wilkl step in again? 10:11

Exited all Long ES at 1546.25 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 10:18

* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away

<Brutus> Good trades szu 10:20

<szubaark_away> thanks..

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 824.5 10:25

Covered all ER2 Short @ 824.2 --> + 0.3

<NihabaAshi> Expecting a volatility spike here soon 10:28

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 10:33

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 824.30 -> small size 10:35

This trade is starting to stick....doesn't feel right so far. 10:37

stick = stink

Covered ER2 Short @ 824.20 --> + 0.1

Will stay on the sidelines. 10:38

Lost my focus in that trade.

I think its time for a break from trading.

Be back later...going to lunch.

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:42

* Disconnected 11:45

* Attempting to rejoin channel #futurestrades 11:46

* Rejoined channel #futurestrades 11:47

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

* fseitun is now known as ItalianSharp 11:53

<ItalianSharp> Wow, guess we all got booted 11:54

really weird...what happened to the VIX? way to screw up a chart

* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Oct 29 11:58:57 2007 11:58

Session Start: Mon Oct 29 12:01:09 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 12:01

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 824 «« Scalp »» 12:38

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 12:39

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 824.50 --> + 0.5 «« Scalp »» 12:46

<Guest35179> long 826 13:09

out 825.5 13:10

<hummie> Niha we need to talk

chat me up

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 824.60 «« Scalp »» 13:11

<Guest35179> long 824

out 824.5 13:12

long 823.5 13:13

out 824.3 13:16

<Nesi> OIL near day high 13:18

oil about to take day high 93.20 13:21

took it 13:24

<rainer> Long ES @ 1547.00 13:27

<Brutus> 10/29/2007 14:26 GEN: PIMCO's Gross says Fed may need to cut to 3.5% to avoid recession-Bloomberg 13:29

<rainer> Exited all ES Long @ 1545.50 --> - 1.5 13:30

<szubaark_away> amazing, that 10/19 Drop we fully retraced now 13:31

lets see if we get another of those end of day rally's 13:33

<Tim_a> are you still swing trading nih? 13:34

i'm wondering if the 20 day ma's are giving a swing opportunity 13:36

<Nesi> feels like ER 820 maybe gone soon..imo 13:37

<Guest35179> long 821.5

<szubaark_away> yup.. problem is with FOMC meeting tomorrow, its very thin out there

(things can turn on a Dime) 13:38

<Stowe> announcement is on 10-31 i thought...not tomorrow

<szubaark_away> Tomorrow meeting Begins

<Guest35179> out 822.5

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 8222.50 --> - 7397.9 «« Scalp »»

<Stowe> FOMC Calendar shows the Fed meeting to be "10-30 to 10-31"

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 822.50 --> + 2.1 «« Scalp »» 13:39

<Stowe> they usually annouce on second day of meeting

i thought

<szubaark_away> yes, but Traders,Institutions already are waiting today, u can tell by the Price Action

<Tim_a> man, i'm so tired of the fed - heard greenspan interview on bbc saturday, guy has zero concience 13:40

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 822.10 «« Scalp »»

<Brutus> 10/29/2007 14:35 *DJ OIL FUTURES: Heating Oil Ends At Record $2.4628/Gal,Up 3.13c

<szubaark_away> Fed junkies are loving it.

just watch CNBC LOL 13:41

<Stowe> "b-b-b-bennie and feds"

<Tim_a> they've destroyed the dollar 13:42

<Stowe> http://thestressblog.com/2006/06/05/benn ie-and-the-feds/ 13:43

The Fed is in a corner. Credit markets remain squeezed, but energy and food costs are soaring, and the dollar is tumbling. The central bank has always tried to walk the tightrope between controlled inflation and fluid markets, but it has been a while since the balance has looked this precarious. 13:50

http://www.domain-b.com/economy/general/ 2007/20071029_us_federal.htm 13:53

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1548 13:58

<Tim_a> the fed put itself (and us) in that corner

hi star, what triggered you short (if you dont mind my asking?) 14:00

<startrader> Just a range trade, ers was reacting off 50% retrace as well, close of the 9:45 15 min reversal bar and open of 2:00 pm 15 min engulfing bar, was looking for a better reaction, here it comes. 14:04

<Tim_a> thought you had some interesting comentary friday 14:05

<startrader> Now ers is banging on the 60% retrace on es is still knocking heads with the 48 level, was working it at 46.25 at the line of control but could not get filled. 14:14

er2, dyslexia! 14:15

* Stowe adds to ym short 13914

<jperl> done for the day....trades here... 14:22

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-10-29/JP ERL_0122.jpg

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 824.40 -> small size 14:27

* Stowe adds to ym short 13927 14:28

adds to ym short 13930 insanity 14:31

<startrader> Shorts YM @ 1449.25 -> Add

es 14:32

* Stowe adds to ym short 13926 14:34

<rainer> Shorts ER2 @ 824.4

Covered all ER2 Short @ 823.40 --> + 1 14:36

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 823.80 --> - 0.6

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 823.80

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1447.50 --> + 1.75 14:42

* Stowe adds to ym short 13910 14:43

<Tim_a> boy, you had to be stubborn to collect that

<startrader> es and ym where both at r1 levels. like my numbers? told you, keyboard dyslexia! 14:44

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 14:45

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 47 --> + 1501 14:47

<Tim_a> 75k per contract, not bad 14:51

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 822.30 -> small size «« Scalp »» 14:53

<Tim_a> closing spx on 20 day ma would confuse the most people

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 822.90 --> + 0.9 14:54

<Tim_a> 1539.19

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.20 -> small size 14:59

All this talk or rumor about another interest rate cut should keep things bullish for a few more minutes. 15:00

<Nesi> :)

<Tim_a> they're a bunch of junkies 15:01

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========

DJIA up 70.15 points to 13877.34

NASDAQ up 8.99 points to 2813.32

S&P 500 up 5.94 points to 1541.22

10-year T-note up 7/32 at 102 30/32 yield 4.375

NYMEX Spot Crude up $1.67 at $93.53/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro up 0.0029 at 1.4422

<NihabaAshi> My entry is a full 1.2 points too late as a "chaser" :(

<Brutus> http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={ccfd2 15d-21b3-49e5-9c2c-5196e0f100ea}

<NihabaAshi> Was on the phone of a busy phone call. 15:02

:(

<startrader> er2 moves 80% of range in 10 minute? I gotta trade that thing!

<Stowe> pisani: "the important thing here is we're quietly moving up" 15:03

<NihabaAshi> Well...a few minutes after 4pm est has now passed...exit decision time for me. 15:04

<Stowe> ADP Report Tomorrow

<Tim_a> that IVB friday was worth 22 es points 15:06

<Stowe> tim...you must have been referring to this quote earlier: "Chairman Alan Greenspan said $100 oil would not be all bad as it would help the U.S. to break its oil dependence. Greenspan also said he expects more weakness in the real dollar rate, especially against the Chinese Yuan.

if $100 is not bad...is $200 oil really good? 15:07

<NihabaAshi> See all later...gotta call.

<Stowe> maybe we need a 30 cent dollar 15:08

<Tim_a> i dont recall that especially, as much as just a 'cutesy' attitude about fedspeak, after turing hosuing into a casino

turning housing

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 825.80 --> + 0.6

WRB Analysis

Learn More

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 15:09

<Stowe> fed funds futures supposedly pointing to a 96% chance they cut to 4.5%

<Brutus> I did some reasearch on IVB's as well on the weekend, powerful stuff. Thx ST 15:10

<startrader> Yea Tim, I am working on scaling out so when you do enter one of those trades at an absolute level you catch a big move. By absolute I mean where price does not return to before continuing the longer term trend.

<Tim_a> AG seemed to get a kick out of that fact that he had the nation by the b*lls, and had everyone hanging on every word that he gave to mislead 15:11

(in the bbc interview) 15:12

<startrader> Time to go carve pumpkins! Night all.

<Tim_a> worthwhile stuff, star 15:13

i'm trying to catch longer moves, because on an es, you're down 3 ticks from the start, (in/out/commish) 15:14

<Stowe> "These are uncertain times," Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said earlier this month. "Any forecast and any analysis of events should be made with a great deal of humility about its correctness," she said. "And, that's why I am keeping an open mind about prospects for the future."

<Tim_a> glad she cleared THAT up 15:15

brutus, what did you uncover, were you just going back on charts looking at IVB's? 15:17

<Brutus> Yes Tim going back and checking charts

It was a good confirming factor on top of what I watch for 15:18

<Tim_a> pretty reliable for turning points?

<Brutus> I'm no expert on it

<Tim_a> i'm trying to move to fewer/better/longer trades 15:19

<Brutus> But Friday I got no signals on that turn

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away

<Brutus> But he IVB was the best indication

<Tim_a> i've posted very few trades here because i'm kind of in flux, and i dont want to lead anyone astray

<Brutus> have to go CU, go ahead mark them as paper trades 15:20

<Tim_a> have a good evening

i'll look into that

<werner> gn all 15:26

* Stowe is now known as all

<all> gn

* all is now known as Stowe 15:27

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 16:45

* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Oct 29 22:57:25 2007 22:57

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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.