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#FuturesTrades October 18th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Blotter

I didn't trade the key first hour due to some personal stuff and will miss part of tomorrow's early afternoon trading session due to more personal stuff (doctor appointment).

In addition, I don't plan on being aggressive in my trading until Friday through Tuesday.

Other than that...if your a fee-based client...please read the key trading tips I've posted in the Swing Trading Report (STR): Questions & Answer thread.

Info will improve your knowledge of the STR.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of October...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

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Session Start: Wed Oct 18 09:27:28 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here.09:27
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm niha
<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.
<Chilly> gm folks09:28
* szubaark_away is now known as szubaark09:29
<asuni> gm all
<PapaJon> gm all09:33
<Chilly> who's wearing their Dow 12,000 party hat?09:34
<les> ftse broke its 5yr high a few days ago09:35
<eminitrader> :)
<les> 788.2 is er2 alltime high09:36
any bets? :)
<pat255> we will be there in a hurry lol09:37
<les> niha - i think i remeber u once saying that Nov tended to be a selling month for dealers...09:38
cos of the need to get them their bonuses for xmas??
is that correct?
ie, buy in Oct, take profits after that09:39
<PapaJon> daily chart doesnt seeem to look that way for last year les..??09:40

however.. perhaps that is their goal.. which will produce more volatility09:41
<les> maybe thats it
<jperl> TotalMarket opening looks quite green....09:46

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_019.png
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1732 «« paper »» 09:49
<eminitrader> paper trading all week szu ?09:51
<szubaark> probobly for a while. need to get my act together before going live again09:52
<eminitrader> k good strategy
<szubaark> i need to ADJUST better to changing market conditions "seasonals"
<eminitrader> gotya
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1732 «« paper »» 09:53
Covered all Short NQ at 1728.25 --> + 3.75 «« paper »» 09:54
  
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<eminitrader> nice start :)
<szubaark> thanx..ES Top was my "Hint" to Short09:55
paper trading will let me focus more on my execution, following plan insted of focusing so much on Money when trading real cash09:56
emin where u Long from?09:57
<eminitrader> done szu was long 74 1/2 out 76 and remainder 7809:58
<szubaark> u starting to trade the 8:30 News?
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1377.25

just some days ...szu on critical data09:59
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 773.3 10:03
<pat255> turned ugly in a hurry10:06
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1375.25 -> Add
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 773.4 --> + 0.1 10:14
<Chilly> was short ER from 776.60 to 773.50, stopped out +3.110:17
I need to get a mouse for my laptop, can't work the "nipple" to post script better10:18
<les> chillly, u need to re-think that last sentence10:19
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1374.15 --> - 4.2 10:20
<Chilly> I will rely on your experience, Les, in this matter as a guide10:21
<les> hehe
<ItalianSharp> emini, when you went long werent you afraid they might go down and close the gap? what made you think the market would bounce up without closing the gap?10:22
<Chilly> dang ... pickpocked again ... need to be more alert to reentry
at least I took my first signal this time ... usually hesitate and miss the boat10:23
gaps filled ..
<szubaark> [08:56] <eminitrader> szu u in a position ...NQ going to the moon10:24

emini isnt it amazing how they can change up things
<jperl> Total Market now candystriping...10:25
<szubaark> im thinking lots of retail buying ANY DIPS after this runup so they start crushing them
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_0110.png
<pat255> niha les any thos on this er?10:28

thots
<les> pat - its going DOWN
beyopnd that, not much so far in my head10:29
<pat255> sort of closed the gap ...

kty les
<les> might just be consolidating after the rises
depends which gap u mean
<pat255> this am
<les> gap down to what tho?10:30
<PapaJon> a traditional gap les

based on rth chart from yest close
<les> ok, yest close, cos i look at yest open yest high, and wrb hidden gaps10:31
as well
might well head to yest low10:33
<pat255> YL? 768?
<les> yeah10:34
<pat255> ty
<les> at least thats one target for the down move
<PapaJon> 763.3 actually

yest lod
<ItalianSharp> YM hasnt closed the gap yet
just a few ticks
<les> if it passes that then we lookig at the abyss of the gap fill on the 6th oct10:35

to 740.5
<pat255> turned ugly in a hurry...
<ItalianSharp> YM about to fill in that gap10:36
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<ItalianSharp> either bounce back time or downtrend continuation i guess10:37
<Chilly> Dow was up 93 points in first 9 minutes ... they had to get a taste of 12,000
right IS ... humm
<ItalianSharp> YM filled the gap

let's see what happens next
<PapaJon> typical... good news = retailers buy, big boys sell10:38
<szubaark> [09:35] <Chilly> who's wearing their Dow 12,000 party hat?
<PapaJon> market pushes up then plummets
<szubaark> time to put the hat back in closet
<PapaJon> is funny cuz.. my wife, pre-mkt wondered if i would be looking to go long with all the positive news... I told her.. no way.. i will look for good short signals10:39
<Chilly> haha ... stop dancing people .. get back to work!
<PapaJon> of course... i havent had a good signal.. my type anyway
just watching all the fun10:40
<szubaark> They just pressing the "Sell" button.10:43
<pat255> yeah szu ..& S are scared of the mkt afterall the pain..10:44
<les> anyone know if the oil report news had any bearing10:49

i didnt see the report
<PapaJon> dunno.. dint see either
<pat255> The sharp drawdown in gasoline and distillates points to lack of refinery capacity just as we are heading into colder weather and this suggests oil product prices are heading back up and probably fairly quickly.
<les> i guess mkts were alreqady in freefall by 10:30 anyway10:50
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 770.00 -> small size
<les> picked up a little after 10:30, but not that much
<NihabaAshi> 3 contracts only10:54
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1712.75 «« paper »» 10:55
<NihabaAshi> Too tight to do a trade reversal...will just dump it and watch a little bit if I'm stopped out.
<szubaark> Niha what u mean "too tight"?10:56
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 769.50 -> Add

szu...too tight for me to react and too tight because there's a good chance another pattern signal will soon follow...10:57

Don't want to be Short on a position reversal when a Long signal appears quickly.

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 770.50 --> + 1 10:58
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1715.25 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 770.70 --> + 0.7 11:00

Holding 1 contract remainder
<szubaark> Nice Volatility today.
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 770.10 --> + 0.1 11:06
  
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<pat255> nice niha ...man u have to be quick on the L side today ...
selling today...11:07
relentless now..
<NihabaAshi> pat255...I'm trying different (new) plugins for me trading platform...11:08

So far...not going well over the past few trading days in testing them.

I'm just trying to find something to speed up my "trade execution time" especially when trading something like ER2
<pat255> :( i try not to screw around with the trading platform ...gives me more headaches..11:09
yes ..very essential trading er ...11:12
Niha u still L?11:17
<NihabaAshi> No11:18
<pat255> ty
<NihabaAshi> [11:06] <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 770.10 --> + 0.1
<pat255> yes ...saw that ...forgot..:9
<NihabaAshi> I had the size...but dumped too many contracts...soon I had none :(
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 772.6 «« paper »» 11:25
live11:26
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 772.1 --> + 0.5 11:27
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 772.5 11:34
Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 772.5 --> + 0.1 11:36
<eminitrader> looks like its one swing down ...take out the stops and then all the way up ..11:37
<les> yeah em, better i trade the short conservatively :)11:38
Long ER2 @ 772 11:42
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:45
<les>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 772.5 --> + 0.5 11:46
exit stop raised ER2 @ 772.1 11:49
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 772.9 --> + 0.9 11:51
<pat255> vn les ...even in this chop u are making some..11:54
<les> a signal is a signa, so gotta trade it11:55
had none before this
<pat255> yup...
<les> thx11:56
<jperl> ER2 sitting on VWAP=772.70
<les> i guess we in lunchtime chop zone12:02
they got hungry early today
<pat255> yeah but looks like minor setback for er ..12:04
* les is now known as lesAway12:15
<szubaark> emini.. every so often they have to switch up the routine, best not to get comfortable with few setups :))12:18

Buys NQ @ 1717.75 «« paper »» 12:20
<jperl> I made quite a bundle this morning trading ER212:21
Here are the execution(s)....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_0111.png
<NihabaAshi> :)
<szubaark> jperl what happened?12:22
<ItalianSharp> well done jperl
<jperl> Couldn't find any entries
<ItalianSharp> you have been doing real well lately

you seem to win all the time, whats wrong with you?
<jperl> Some days just don't have it12:23
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1715 --> - 2.75 «« paper »» 12:27

Shorts NQ @ 1715 «« paper »»

crap..looks like i got played in this chop12:30

Covered all Short NQ at 1717.25 --> - 2.25 «« paper »» 12:32

Buys NQ @ 1717.25 «« paper »» 12:33
<ItalianSharp> szu, is reversing so many times part of your trading plan? i am asking this because perhaps you should pay attention to it when you get stuck in chops...if you are on the wrong side, you actually risk to be shaken out of your trades many times in a row...12:34
<szubaark> Italian.. i had a good morning now im getting careless :(12:35
<ItalianSharp> the idea behind my question is: is there a specific reason why you are reversing? a well thought-out plan or is it the sort of reversal like "sooner or later i'll catch a big move?"
<pat255> niha is good at reversing ...i have hard time doing ti but it pans out many times...
<szubaark> "sooner or later ill catch a nig move"
<jperl> Here's what the ER2 market statistics looks like12:36
<ItalianSharp> szu, dont take personal i dont mean to sound like a dick...i just interested because i am working to develop a contingency plan of my own
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_0112.png
<szubaark> Italian me too.. it takes millions of hours of screen time
<jperl> The volume histogram is shown on the left side of the chart....12:37

POC is the red line in the center at 772.50

Just above it is the VWAP (light blue line)

They are very close....thus no bias either long or short12:38
<ItalianSharp> i know niha is really good at reversing, and probably all successful traders must be if you want to be profitable...however, i believe that if you dont have a valid contingency plan, dont use it...take your stop and move on to next setup
reversing without a valid contingency plan can lead to overtrading and many consecutive losers IMO
<jperl> For those of you who want to avoid most of the whipsaw....12:39

if you put the VWAP on your chart and avoid any signals from your other indicators....

when price is around the VWAP....

you will avoid the worst of your bad trades12:40
<ItalianSharp> jperl, did you create di VWAP?
<jperl> VWAP is not my invention...

but if you understand what it represents....12:41

you will see where I am coming from
<szubaark> ER is different BUT ES,NQ,YM you have to ANTICIPATE the breakout if you chase u'll get a shitty entry and most likely will Stop you out.
<ItalianSharp> what does it stand for exactly? VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE?
<jperl> Yes
Its the average of all that data you see in the histogram on the left side of the chart12:42
It's time independent...
so yo can put it on any chart....
It will always be the same
<ItalianSharp> any chart, you mean any timeframe?12:43
<jperl> yes....1 minute, 2 minute, tick chart, range bar chart, volume chart
you name it chart
The daily VWAP is independent of the chart12:44
<ItalianSharp> you seem to use the VWAP as a big filter for your trades
<jperl> you've got that right
<ItalianSharp> i read your daily updates
<jperl> I only take longs when price action is above VWAP, shorts below12:45
<ItalianSharp> what if you have a long signal when prices are below VWAP? you wait for prices to cross it and close above?
<jperl> I ignore any long signals when price is below VWAP12:46
<ItalianSharp> ok
<jperl> The VWAP line represents an "equi-volume" line....12:47
When price is at VWAP.....
There has been as much trading volume above it as below it
<ItalianSharp> so there is no dominant force12:48
<jperl> correct
If you look at the histogram on the chart....
you see that it is symmetric about the VWAP12:49
when VWAP is near POC
<ItalianSharp> where is POC?12:50
<jperl> Point of Control....thats the peak in the volume distrbution ....the red line on the chart in the center
When the VWAP>POC....12:51
there is an upward bias to the volume...
more volume being traded above the POC than below....12:52
<ItalianSharp> VWAP is the red line?
<jperl> No....VWAP is the light blue line
red line is POC
the straight line in the center
<ItalianSharp> ok...in the chart vwap is above poc12:53
<jperl> The other lines on the chart are standard deviations of the VWAP
Yes...slightly
<ItalianSharp> should there be a minimum room between vwap and poc to accept any trade signal?
<jperl> no....I will usually wait for a trade until Price action reaches the first standard deviation long or short12:54
<ItalianSharp> looks like its a good instrument for trending markets12:57
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<pat255> japer u use ib fed?

feed ..
<jperl> It's a good instrument for any type of market....
since it gives you the statistics for the market you are in12:58
I use IB yes
I don't use any other indicators
<ItalianSharp> how long have you been using the vwap Jpearl?13:00
<jperl> Long time....since I've been here...which must be several years by now
<ItalianSharp> wow...it must work out real nice if you have been sticking to it for so long13:01
<jperl> yes it does13:02
<ItalianSharp> what frequency does it produce per week on average?
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1714.50 --> - 2.75 «« paper »» 13:03
* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away
<jperl> what do you mean by frequency???...frequency of what
<ItalianSharp> frequency of signals...how many trades do you get per week using the vwap as a filter?13:04
<jperl> well you can go back and look at my executions on the "dacharts" site and get a feel for that...13:05
I haven't kept any statistics
<ItalianSharp> ok...thanks for delucidanting more on the vwap jperl13:07
<jperl> yw13:08
<pat255> anyone S ?13:29
<eminitrader> not me :(
  

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<pat255> emini most traers were reluctant to S the way mkt is but today it paid off..13:30
<eminitrader> was not worth the risk for me pat ...bad call --but hey this is trading can't be right all the time :)13:31
<pat255> correcto emini13:32
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:09
<szubaark_away> looks like they had to get low of day Stops before going up14:22

i just wasnt patient enough and waited 4 hours (after the initial sell-off then pullback) for my signal14:28

think Niha got his Long signal.. High-low-lower low14:42
<asuni> i'm not sure, it seems to me that he wait for high-low-higher high-lower low14:43
but not sure szu
* lesAway is now known as les14:46
<les>  Long ER2 @ 768.6 14:47
:(14:53
Exited all ER2 Long @ 767.9 --> - 0.7
<jperl> Let see....I think I made enough to have a small pepperoni pizza for dinner...14:56

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_0113.png
<asuni> oh, in US pizza has a very low price jperl :-)14:57
<jperl> I guess so
<les>  Long ER2 @ 767.2 14:58
wrongt
Long ER2 @ 768.8
<jperl> The TotalMarket failed to cross its VWAP three times today....15:02

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-18/JP ERL_0114.png

I hope it makes it for your trade les... because that's what it needs to do for your long to pan out
<les> i thought vwap was around 772?15:03
<jperl> for ER its 771 right now15:04
<les> k
<jperl> The chart I just showed is for the TotalMakrket
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:21
<NihabaAshi> I'm done for the day...spend most of the day doing personal stuff.15:52
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<pat255> k later niha ...
<Chilly> gn too15:53
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 769.3 --> + 0.5 16:00

hadda bail here

v late for me

cya all tomorrow
* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Oct 18 16:21:05 200616:21
  
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