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#FuturesTrades October 3rd Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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ER2 EuroFX EC
+18.40 +0.0000
$1,840.00 $0.00

Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Blotter

A smoother trading day and for the first time in several weeks...I'm starting to feel comfortable with my new trader workstation.

In addition, after a few years of not using it, I've returned back to the no trading rule when the price action has enter what I call the "Bermuda Triangle".

The Bermuda Triangle in trading is just a price area that has a high tendency to produce choppy price action along with even paced volatility.

Further, the key to this month profits will be position size management as I slowly begin increasing my position size as the market seasonal patterns kick in and are in full swing by end of month.

With that said, surely you've noticed, Dow hit an all time high while Oil slump below $60 for the first time in over 14 months.

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of October...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

Google
 Session Start: Tue Oct 03 09:31:36 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here09:31
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<les> this could be gap fill to 7171.909:32
er2
717.9
<NihabaAshi> By overall bias is BEARISH but my opening bell bias is BULLISH.09:33
<PapaJon> could be
re: gap fill
<NihabaAshi> Will use position size management to manage my bias.09:34
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1338.25 09:36
looking for a quick scalp
<les> who's?
<eminitrader> mrkts ?09:37
<les> hehe
<eminitrader> or maybe i get scalped :)
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 719.80 -> small size

5 contracts
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1337 -> Add 09:40
<NihabaAshi> There's a key speech at 0945am est by some FED official.09:41
<asuni> 9:45 PM ET : Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig to speak about the U.S. economic outlook, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Audience Q&A possible.09:42
<NihabaAshi> Thanks
<les> thats the gap fill09:43
<asuni> filled er2 gap 911
<les> going up?09:44
<silo1> there's a fed speach? where do you see this info? i dont see it anywhere
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 717.70 --> + 2.1 09:45
<asuni> silo: http://online.barrons.com/public/page/ba rrons_econoday.html
<NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract remainder
  
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<asuni> nice start niha
<NihabaAshi> silo1...last time you asked that I posted three valuable links for Key Market Events time schedule.09:46
<eminitrader> very good start
<NihabaAshi> I'll do it again one more time and not again...
<eminitrader> :)
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 11720
<NihabaAshi> 1. http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.h tm
<silo1> my bad
<pdays>  Long YM @ 11720
<silo1> i did check those links before i asked the question... i just missed the speaker thing because it's not really in a box on its own so i missed it hehe09:47
my bad
<NihabaAshi> 2. http://fidweek.econoday.com/
<silo1> didn't click on the who is speaking part of it
sorry :(09:48
<NihabaAshi> 3. http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/briefing / or any other Forex Calendar because they are good for international market events that have impact on the U.S. markets.

Yep...the link "Who is Speaking" is valuable...click on it to stay informed :)09:49
<les> looks like we retracing the 911 wrb09:50
912 actaully
interesting..09:52
there's no such similar action on es and ym,...
but on nq there's 912 wrb, gap not yet filled
price a little above09:53
mixed bag
<asuni> niha, u have a specific target for the short trade?09:54
<NihabaAshi> No and is the reason why I don't most of it and kepted one contract remainder...no specific target for the remainder.
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1641.75 09:55
<NihabaAshi>  #FuturesTrades Purpose -> To understand its purpose and how to benefit from its use...its all posted @ http://p207.ezboard.com/fthestrategylabf rm96.showMessage?topicID=234.topic (read it to prevent any misunderstandings).
<les> niha.. i thought u may have yr eye on 714.2
<NihabaAshi> The way ER2 has been selling off after lunch...may be a good time to try to hold a Short position a little longer to see if it can reach that 714 price area.09:57
<jperl> ER2 VWAP 718.4709:59

POC 717.80
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1338.25 --> + 1.25
thats +0.7510:00
avg buy = 37.50
Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1337.50 --> - 0.75 10:01
thats b/e
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-03/JP ERL_011.png10:02

light blue line VWAP

purple line POC

other lines (green,red) standard deviations of VWAP10:03
<pdays>  Exited all YM Long @ 11730 --> + 10
<jperl> notice how price action pauses between VWAP and POC

I call this no mans land.....10:04

since price action can oscillate in there for quite some time10:05

If VWAP-POC is large enought....you can trade it
<silo1> what's POC10:16
<jperl> Point of Control.....

peak in the volume histogram10:17
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 718.50 --> + 1.3 10:21
Long ER2 @ 719.30 -> small size 10:24
3 contracts
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1337.50
<substanz>  Long YM @ 11733 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 720.60 --> + 1.3 10:27
<szubaark> nice Niha.. rode it down and now up
<eminitrader>  Covered all ES Short @ 1338.50 --> - 1
<NihabaAshi> Had some help from the VIX Index and Oil Index.
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1646.75 --> + 5 10:28
<NihabaAshi> So far today...no data problems (knock on wood).
<eminitrader> nice one there szu :)
<szubaark> thanks.10:29
<eminitrader> u rocking today niha ..
<NihabaAshi> The price area between 725.10 - 721.20 is where I have a high probability of getting losses if trades are opened in that particular price area...this is my no trading area to better control the reasons why I've gotten a few big losing trading days each month. For now on, I will have a new price area of no trading each trading day even if a pattern signal apears in that area.10:34
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 721.80 --> + 2.5 10:35
On that note...I'm done opening new trades until we are no longer in my so called "bermuda triangle".
:)
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 721.5 10:38

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 721 --> + 0.5 10:39
<szubaark> ECBOAT DOWN :((10:40
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1642.75 10:42
<les>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 721.4 10:54
<jperl> NEW POC for ER2 at 720.8010:57
price action could drop here back to VWAP at 719.2010:58
<les>  Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 721.4 --> + 0.1 11:09

:(
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1645.75 --> - 3 11:20
Buys NQ @ 1645.75
Exited all Long NQ at 1649 --> + 3.25 11:26
ym quotes still down lol11:28
<asuni> same here11:29
<les> ecbot is having probs
so we get a nice fat data gap on our charts to screw us up when it gets back up11:30
<ItalianSharp> szu, may i ask why you like trading NQ?11:34
<szubaark> italian just like how it moves.. YM is too jumpy for me and too much raping going on ES and ER is just wacko11:52
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark> ER is getting calmer and calmer as more people start trading it11:53
<ItalianSharp> szu, i am asking you this question simply because NQ ranks 2nd in my volatility rankings

er2 still leading, NQ second, ES and YM trailing behind11:54
<szubaark> what do u trade? dont think ive seen u post trades in here11:55
  
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<ItalianSharp> in fact, i havent gone live yet...i used to trade FOREX, then changed my trading style quite a bit and am now focusing on lower timeframes and daytrading only...i have been demoing different platforms trading ER2 and NQ11:56

futures move much better than forex for short term trading11:57

actually, for daytrading
<szubaark> forex is such a ripoff.. at least u have "repeatable" patterns in eminis in forex its All random11:58
Wizetrade,Showmetotrade,4xMadeEasy is rackin in millions selling their moving average crossover systems11:59
<ItalianSharp> szu, you are right. FOREX is very alluring due to mini-micro contract sizes and very low deposit requirements with huge leverage. this is why lots of people, including myself, are attracted to it. However, it's only good if you do position or swing trading...if you attempt to daytrade FOREX you are gonna be eaten alive by the spread and stop hunters12:00
<szubaark> yup.. this crap looks easy BUT ITS almost impossible to make CONSISTANT Money12:01
they change the market dynamics often to throw you off.12:02
<silo1> has anyone ever traded options?

i think i might get into options

good way to hedge my equities positions12:03

and maximize from the long term timeframe
<szubaark> silo, i havent found or heard of ONE retail trader making money trading options. The Exchanges sure are.
<ItalianSharp> absolutely...what i do find good about forex is trading post-news announcements...thats where i made my best trades...manu opportunities show up a few mins after news and if you understand a bit about price action you certainly exploit them big time
<silo1> while reducing my short term equitites position12:04
<szubaark> Options are complex "ripoffs" and take a lifetime to master. U going against institutions with COmplicating option Pricing models12:05
<codehead> YM open
<substanz>  Exited all YM Long @ 11780 --> + 47 «« paper »»
<szubaark> i was reading some "modern" option strategies and got a headache12:07
threw that booklet right in to the trash12:08
<NihabaAshi> szu...CBOT is back up.12:11
<codehead> i have a friend who does well in options--picks a stock for earnings with a history of 10%+ earnings moves, does a straddle12:17
he have 10 contracts each way on RIMM, for instance12:18
had
dow 8 away form all time intrday high12:20
<ItalianSharp>  http://www.thestrategylab.com/str/charts /100306ChartTalkSTTSL.png12:22

a turkish airline airplane has been hijacked by islamic fundamentalists and is now landed at BRINDISI AIRPORT, ITALY.

dont know how much this can affect the mkts12:23
<NihabaAshi> Watching closely to see if the market responds to it at all...12:24
If it does...we'll see a volatility spike.
<silo1> crazy spike
<ItalianSharp>  Plane lands after hijacking - report12:25
POSTED: 12:11 p.m. EDT, October 3, 2006
Adjust font size:
Decrease fontDecrease font
Enlarge fontEnlarge font
BRINDISI, Italy (CNN) -- A Turkish plane was hijacked on Tuesday as it traveled from Tirana, Albania to Istanbul, Turkey, according to a Turkish Airlines spokesman on Turkish television.
Turkish television NTV reported the plane had landed in Brindisi, Italy.
got it from CNN, news is from 12.11
we might have seen the volatility spike already
time to go against it now i guess...:)
  

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<NihabaAshi> News related volatilty spikes tend to retrace back to the volatilty spike once the market absorbs the news to validate the price move was related to a breaking news event.12:26

If ER2 price move was related to the breaking news...it will retrace back to at least the 724 price area.12:27

Shorts ER2 @ 727.10 -> small size

2 contracts only12:28
<ItalianSharp> funny thing is: volatility spike came at 18.05, CNN reported the news at 12.11. its always fascinating to see how early the big hands get to hear this news
timing is key
<NihabaAshi> Agree
<DaveK> yep the news is history12:29
<NihabaAshi> Does anybody know WHY the CBOT was down ???
<yo> no12:30
<pdays> Forgot to pay electric bill?
<NihabaAshi> Maybe it was related to just a few data providers on a specific lines into the CBOT.
<substanz>  Shorts YM @ 11806 «« paper »» 12:38
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 726.6
Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 726.3 --> + 0.3 12:39
<NihabaAshi> :(12:40

Looks like its going to shake me out by triggering my trailing stop :(12:41
<ItalianSharp> you are at break even now?12:42
<NihabaAshi> Yeah...it took me out.
<ItalianSharp> same here, managed 1 point off NQ
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 727.00 --> + 0.1

Had the price enter the s/r zone of that WRB spike on the 2min chart at 1206pm est...12:43

I would have dumped it there...most likely a +1.2 gain12:44
<substanz>  Covered all YM Short @ 11806 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:56
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 728.10 13:00

2 contracts only
<les>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 728.3 --> - 1.7
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 727.30 --> - 0.8 13:04

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 727.30
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<NihabaAshi> 5 contracts13:05
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 727.3
Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 726.9 --> + 0.4 13:07
<NihabaAshi> Last trade...I'm done trading for the day...13:08

Data problems just returned again and I'm just a little paranoid about such after last weeks trading performance.13:09

Covered ER2 Short @ 726.30 --> + 1 13:10
<les>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 726.2 --> + 1.1 13:11
<NihabaAshi> I saw my price at 727.50 and the very next tick it was at 726.80
<ItalianSharp> nice surprise niha
<NihabaAshi> Yep...could have gone the other way :(
<ItalianSharp> right now it's at 2600
jstu for yr info
<NihabaAshi> Thanks.
<les>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 727.2 13:12
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 726.8 13:27
<pdays>  Long YM @ 11794

Exited all YM Long @ 11801 --> + 7 13:29
<les>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 726.5 --> + 0.8 13:31
i'm done for today
cya all tomorrow
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1658 13:39
<pat255> hi guys ...14:01
<szubaark> hi pat
<pat255> stuck @office this week...:(
hi szu
<szubaark> office :((
<pat255> yeah....gotta pay the bills....14:02
<szubaark> pat this trading crap isnt easy either..14:03
<pat255> very true szu....without the job I will be homeless...
<szubaark>  exit stop moved to breakeven NQ @ 1658 14:04

pat just know its very difficult to do this part-time and work as u going against Pros who do this Full-time14:05
<pat255> yup....learning & keeping bets low...not looking for home run etc..14:07
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:13
<pat255> k guys later...ty14:19
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1660 --> + 2 14:20
<silo1> nice szu14:38
<szubaark> thanks.. was patient today and didnt do any stupid trades14:41
<eminitrader> looks like i missed all the fun..15:08
u go szu :}15:09
14:41] <szubaark> thanks.. was patient today and didnt do any stupid trades
keep doing this and u'll be amazed at the results15:10
<codehead> long ER 724.80 <paper>15:21
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:25
<codehead> ER finally rolled over--weakest of the indices15:27

723.30 stop <paper>15:28

stopped -1.50 <paper>15:44

whew, Er nasty

YM sitll ok

for new high

russell red, surprising

long 722.90 ER <paper>15:51

hm, no signal

my reall trades were two long YM 86, but too chicken, just took a few ticks

looks like dow prolly hold the new record tho

well, close15:52

barely above it

on it
<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.16:20
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Oct 03 16:20:57 2006
  
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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2 

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

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TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

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