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#FuturesTrades September 27th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+7.50	+201.90	+2670.50
$750	$20,190	$267,050

Profitable Trade

1121am - 1127am est

Losing Trade

1526pm - 1531pm est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

Trading via WRB Analysis: Today's range day didn't produce opportunities to reach my profit goal but there was one useful price action that resulted as a WRB s/r zone between 1118am - 1126am est that should be useful for tomorrow's trading session to help confirm pattern signals or used as a profit target.

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Thu Sep 27 09:29:26 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:29

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<PapaJon> gm all

<Dmi76> gm all 09:30

<NihabaAshi> Good morning all and I'm still strongly bearish. 09:31

<werner> gm niha ,all

<pat255> gm all

<Dmi76> Shorts ES @ 817.5 09:32

Covered all ES Short @ 817.3 --> + 0.2 09:34

sorry that was er2 09:36

<base> GM all

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 817.80 -> medium size

Gold helping keep this up :( 09:40

<Dmi76> Shorts ER2 @ 817.6 09:41

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1541.75

<Dmi76> Covered all ER2 Short @ 817.6 --> 0 09:42

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1541.25 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1541.25

<NihabaAshi> Gold still holding up :( 09:43

<les> Long ER2 @ 817.4 «« paper »» 09:45

<Bambam-77> 1540 is my ss trigger on close below adding to long1541 stp 1539.75

<eminitrader> pa says short until 43.50 is taken out on the ES 09:46

<NihabaAshi> Covered 3/4 ER2 Short @ 816.60 --> + 1.2 09:47

Gold finally giving in and wants to join Oil in its price direction :( 09:48

Enough to keep me holding my remainder until Oil finds some stability. 09:49

Jumpy prices, most likely in pre-reaction to the pending 10am est economic report that's due. 09:52

<ItalianSharp> yep...very important report on NEW HOME SALES considering the housing slump we're in 09:53

<NihabaAshi> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 817.60 09:54

<eminitrader> yep ..daily charts show a 50-50 probability of a move either way ...no specific bias

<NihabaAshi> Oild got some stability

<eminitrader> refering to the ES 09:55

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 817.30 --> + 0.5

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1542.50 -> Add

<Bambam-77> protecting long first lot away +1.25 09:56

<Brutus> 1000/1400 Aug Conference Board Help-Wanted Index

25

1000/1400 Aug New Home Sales

Overall Sales 830K 870K

Percent Change -4.6% +2.8%

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1541.25 --> + 1.25 09:57

no thats b/e from original lot

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.4 --> - 1 «« paper »» 09:58

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1539 --> + 2.25 09:59

Trading Edge:
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Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<Bambam-77> sar 40.50

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 816.50 -> medium size 10:00

<szubaark> Jumpy Prices 10:01

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1542 -> Add

<NihabaAshi> :(

Jumpy and I didn't expect that

<Bambam-77> flat

<NihabaAshi> I expected a strong continuation in any particular direction

<eminitrader> looks like down for now... 10:02

<les> Long ER2 @ 816.8 «« paper »» 10:04

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1539 --> + 3 10:06

<Brutus> nice trading E

<eminitrader> thx B 10:07

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1540 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 816.30 --> + 0.2

:(

Geeesh

Dumped it as soon as I saw that problematic Dark Hammer Line forming. 10:08

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1540.50

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1540 --> 0 «« paper »»

<Dmi76> crazy price action ))) 10:09

<pat255> hmm not really look @ em entries ..nice

L 39 paper .. 10:10

<Bambam-77> 1538.75 is uva support from yesterday 10:11

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1539 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Reminder: I'm expecting a trend day either today or tomorrow.

* NEWS- is now known as news`

* Looking up news` user info...

<szubaark> Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1540 --> + 1 «« paper »»

Exited all Long ES at 1539 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:12

<pat255> out 3 tciks paper

<szubaark> That was quick, geez

<les> Exited ER2 Long @ 816.2 --> - 0.6 «« paper »»

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 816.2 «« paper »»

<Bambam-77> this area is key once we break 1537.25 poc 10:13

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1538.50 --> + 2

<pat255> vn

<szubaark> nice Shorts emini

<eminitrader> thx guys 10:14

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1538.25 «« paper »» 10:15

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 815.6 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> A lot of fighting (jumpy price action) on very low volatility. 10:16

Something will break out soon (up or down).

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1538.25 --> 0 «« paper »»

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 817.1 --> - 2.4 «« paper »» 10:20

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.90 -> small size 10:22

1 only 10:23

<les> Long ER2 @ 817.9 «« paper »» 10:24

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1541 --> - 0.5 10:25

<NihabaAshi> :(

Exited ER2 Long @ 818.30 --> + 0.4

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1541.50 «« paper »» 10:26

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1541

was looking for 42.50 :( 10:27

<szubaark> that would be my Stop

<eminitrader> 43.50 was mine

<szubaark> exit stop set ES @ 1542.50 «« paper »» 10:28

<eminitrader> see a down day ..if 1543.25 holds

<szubaark> Covered 1/2 Short ES at 1540.50 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:29

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1541.50 «« paper »»

* les is now known as lesAway 10:31

<eminitrader> be back

<ItalianSharp> mkts real jumpy...tough to hold onto any position 10:36

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1541.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:37

yes IS, entries have to be almost Perfect.

<ItalianSharp> agree. a late entry by 2-3 ticks may cost dearly

the huge volatility days are gone...we are back into the mud...:((

volatility declining fast at current levels...lots of resistence here 10:47

for a moment i thought the nice pop to the upside could get us out of this range...i was wrong...:(

<lesAway> Long ER2 @ 816.4 -> Add «« paper »» 10:49

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1541 «« paper »» 10:51

Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1541.50 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:56

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1541 «« paper »»

Exited all Long ES at 1541 --> 0 «« paper »»

impossible to get any remainders going as its so choppy

<Tim_a> i'm trying to develop my skill of the 'out' position, today seems a profitable day to start

<bandr5> do you guys trade er2 10:57

<Tim_a> nih does

<bandr5> ok thanks 10:58

<pat255> S 42.5 10:59

out +1 11:01

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 11:02

<NihabaAshi> ER2 so far not showing to much today :( 11:03

ER2 volatility is dropping fast... 11:04

I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon (up or down).

<pat255> just in a range now ... 11:05

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.20 -> small size 11:06

2 only

I have a weird (rare) gap on my intraday chart between the last two intervals. 11:07

volatility too low to be data problems.

Price trying to go higher but it has reached a point (momentum increase) where I can call it a volatility spike. 11:08

As soon as it does...I'll dump my position. 11:09

<Tim_a> what time interval?

<NihabaAshi> 2min and 3min chart

<Tim_a> ok, i see it on 2 minute, i'm sure it was more startling seeing it real time 11:10

<NihabaAshi> Reminder: I won't be trading tomorrow due to the fact I'll be doing some major charting program upgrades during the trading day. 11:11

<Tim_a> 2 minute has been ping pong between 15 & 19

<NihabaAshi> I prefer to do such like that during the trading day instead of at night to ensure everything is working ok.

ER2 volatility dropping some more. 11:12

<eminime68> ER2 volatility=$vix ???? 11:13

<NihabaAshi> No...ER2 price action itself.

As for the VIX...its range bound.

It's basically saying go back to bed :) 11:14

<eminime68> thanks

<Tim_a> there have been days that stying in bed would have paid well

<NihabaAshi> agree

<eminitrader> exit stop lowered ES @ 1543 11:15

<NihabaAshi> Maybe the 1pm Bernanke speech will shake things up a little. 11:17

<Tim_a> dpx has july 22 close as resistence

spx

4 points higher

bernanke suzzes around the market like a sweat bee 11:18

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility spike 11:19

<eminitrader> looks like it cant brek SP res @ 1530...lots of sellers here.. 11:21

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 816.50 --> - 0.7

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 816.50

<eminitrader> thinks its the 5th attemp this wk..

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 815.00 --> + 1.5 11:23

<Tim_a> it's 'bull or bear?' for the spx, a question that can only be answered at the previous high

<NihabaAshi> I got Oil and Gold still supporting my Short position to keep the remainder. 11:24

However, if they lose their downward momentum...I'll dump my remainder.

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 814.80 --> + 1.7 11:27

<pat255> vn N..

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1537.75 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1538 --> + 3

<Tim_a> nice, e, nih 11:28

<eminitrader> thx T

<NihabaAshi> I had a lot of help on that trade from many different key markets.

<szubaark> nice Shorts emini and niha

<NihabaAshi> Kepted me from getting nailed with a big loss on the losing Long position.

<eminitrader> thx szu

<pat255> hmm N cl & gold up tho.. 11:29

ym red 11:30

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...overal they are all up for the day

In comparison to the prior trading day close 11:31

weak support forming here for ER2 around that 815.00 price area

<szubaark> Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1538.75 --> + 1 «« paper »» 11:35

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1537.75 «« paper »»

Exited all Long ES at 1540.25 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 12:04

<NihabaAshi> As one of my kids recently said on a bike ride... 12:12

"Are we there yet".

:)

Slow market today

<pat255> gotta run to office now ...:( 12:13

yup right now dead ..

<Brutus> yep just counter trader every ER move :)

<pat255> hmmm how old is your kid?

look at cl move up down ..good 12:15

c u all later ty 12:19

<NihabaAshi> pat255...one is a toddler and the other one that talks too much is 4 years old :)

<intowin> in for lunch. gonna take a stab on the long side. 12:33

Long ES @ 1540 12:34

37 stop

check back at 3

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 12:39

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.50 -> small size 13:04

3 only

It's going to be a tough trade.

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 13:05

<NihabaAshi> The jumpy price action seem to show up AFTER my entry :(

AT least Oil and Gold showed up after my entry to try to give me some support. 13:07

volatility still there where I need it to be. 13:08

Oil spiking and Bernanke is speaking now 13:09

volatility dropping nonw :( 13:10

volatility still declining 13:16

Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.80 --> - 0.7 13:20

<ItalianSharp> bernanke not being able to move mkts 13:23

:((

<Tim_a> like a pusher who's all out of dope 13:24

<ItalianSharp> lol

the more time we spend within this range...the bigger the breakout it's going to be

<NihabaAshi> volatility dropping further... 13:25

<ItalianSharp> that's the only positive thing of the last week or so of trading

<NihabaAshi> Geesh...not sure how low it can go.

If it goes any lower...there'll be no trades :)

<ItalianSharp> yep...a flat straight line 13:26

well...at least i've been training for christmas holidays trading...:)

<GoodMood> at what time will Bernake end his speech ? 13:27

<ItalianSharp> i hope soon because he made it even worse than what it was before he started speaking 13:28

<NihabaAshi> Dark Hammer Line 13:36

Maybe it will juice things up a bit.

<Brutus> YM at LOD 13:40

<NihabaAshi> We got a volatility spike that quickly lost its volatility in the following (current) interval. 13:41

<Widgetman> long YM 13:42

got 58 fill

I runnin a auto trading system so I will try to post fast when I am here

had to automate it to catch decent entrys

<lesAway> Exited all ER2 Long @ 817.9 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 13:43

late post from earlier entry

done now

* lesAway is now known as les

<NihabaAshi> wigetman...how many trades per day on average does your system generate???

<Widgetman> well 13:44

I been workin on this a while

use to generate a lot

now I am down to 10 a day most days

this is still work in progress

IB screws me about every 1/3 order sent with a no fill status

I still workin out some kinks

but trading 2 YM seems to do best with a 7 pt stop and 12+ tgt 13:45

I try to work the cycles

if I would intervene it would do better 13:46

a lotta times I get 5+ pips fast and get stopped out later

still workin on auto trail

the DLL interface I am coding with has issues a swell

<bern> tnotes and tbonds at intraday highs

<Widgetman> like now 13:47

was 5+

got stopped -5

still work in progress

my LT indicator just went long YM 13:49

56 again

I work a ST chart system and a LT system

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 815.90 -> small size 13:52

2 only 13:53

:( 13:54

Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.30 --> + 0.4 13:55

Long ER2 @ 816.40 -> medium size 13:56

<Widgetman> system flat 11+ 13:57

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.60 --> + 0.2 14:04

I lost my patience...

Long ER2 @ 817.60 -> medium size 14:07

Geeesh.

Exited 3/4 ER2 Long @ 818.00 --> + 0.4 14:13

<Widgetman> that LT signal long at 56 20+ now

grrrrr

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 817.70 --> + 0.1 14:14

<ItalianSharp> i expect another spike upwards

<NihabaAshi> Right now I'm mentally not ready for another trade after losing my patience and taking another trade too soon... 14:15

Be back later...going to take a break to try and refocus.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 14:16

<NihabaAshi_away> Shorts ER2 @ 818.20 -> small size 14:33

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 817.70 --> + 0.5 14:36

ER2 price quote anyone ??? 14:40

<GoodMood> no problem here

17.3

<NihabaAshi> Thanks 14:41

I have some data problems again.

:(

<Brutus> 09/27/2007 14:39 HOT: Warren Buffett has not held talks over stake in Bear Stearns-BSC, CNBC reports - This is being reported by David Faber. 14:42

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 817.80 --> + 0.4

Taking another break. 14:43

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<Tim_a> looking at ym 'out' was the eisiest position today 14:48

<intowin> i c we are exactly where we were three hours ago when I entered this trade. good grief. The market has really been stuck lately.. 14:49

Exited all ES Long @ 1540.50 --> + 0.5 14:50

C u Guys Monday. Doing some diving tommorow

<Tim_a> i think there are some days that all they really do is pick off stops and reverse

<Brutus> CU have fun 14:51

<szubaark_away> Niha nice scalps.

<Tim_a> havent dived (dove)? in a while, it's fun

<Brutus> Yep, seems they are holding it here for the end of qtr- friday 14:52

Who knows what will happen in October, should be interesting 14:53

I expect Friday to be bullish ES may even gap over this resistance ON or on 0830 PCE news 14:59

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 15:08

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 15:11

<Brutus> 09/27/2007 15:22 DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Nears $83 On Weak Dollar, EIA Data 15:23

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 819.50 -> small size 15:26

very jumpy...already have seconds thoughts.

<Brutus> ES bounce of globex high 15:27

<NihabaAshi> Dark Hammer Line 3min chart...be careful 15:30

Exited ER2 Long @ 818.50 --> - 1 15:31

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 818.50

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 818.7 15:35

Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.3 --> + 0.4 15:36

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 818.50 --> 0 15:37

scratch the trade because its in a 4 tick range :( 15:38

<Widgetman> YM foolin me on stops today 15:41

grrr

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 818.10 -> small size

1 only

Too risky with all the jumpy prices to up my contract size.

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 818 «« paper »»

<rainer> Shorts ER2 @ 819.10 15:42

Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.30 --> + 0.8 15:43

WRB Analysis

Learn More

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 818.3 --> + 0.3 «« paper »»

<rainer> late posting

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 818.5 «« paper »»

Covered ER2 Short @ 818.4 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 15:44

Long ER2 @ 818.1 «« paper »» 15:50

<NihabaAshi> geeesh/// 15:52

:(

I can't be last in line.

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 818.6 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 15:53

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 818.80 --> - 0.7 15:54

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 818.80

punks...no fill at 817.90

Exited ER2 Long @ 819.20 --> + 0.4 15:57

exited via market order after the bs of the prior trade. 15:58

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION =========== 16:04

DJIA up 28.94 points to 13906.84

NASDAQ up 8.77 points to 2707.80

S&P 500 up 5.02 points to 1530.38

10-year T-note up 82/32 at 101 13/32 yield 4.568

NYMEX Spot Crude up $2.58 at $82.88/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro up 0.0013 at 1.4143

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={865d7 950-dd6e-4a42-b569-1510471307b5}

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 16:10

<werner> gn all 16:41

<NihabaAshi> Take care and see all tomorrow. 16:55

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 16:56

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Sep 27 16:56:18 2007

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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

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CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

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