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#FuturesTrades September 25th Tuesday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+18.70	+182.30	+2650.90
$1,870	$18,230	$265,090

Profitable Trade

1045am - 1057am est

Losing Trade

1032am - 1037am est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

Trading via WRB Analysis: Today was a range day in comparison to prior trading days and if tomorrow produces a range day on low volatility...it will setup a trend day or strong morning directional price movement on Thursday or Friday.

The key WRB price action occurred between 0956am - 1004am est that provided support to prevent the market making new intraday lows around 1156am est.

However, the price action after 1156am est became extremely difficult to trade due to the declining volatility until about 1315pm est.

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Tue Sep 25 09:28:00 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:28

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<Dmi76> gm all

<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.

<pat255> man gap down ...er where are the S levels?

<GoodMood> Good morning Niha

<NihabaAshi> I have a strong bearish bias after reveiwing the daily charts but I hate it when it GAPs down big time like this at the open. 09:29

It's as if the market has already taken away big profits before the opening bell :(

<pat255> yes ...very true N 09:30

the only option is to S the move up..

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 804.80 -> medium size

Gotta go with what's obvious and hope it doesn't retrace back upwards as if it want's to close the GAP. 09:31

<Dmi76> Shorts ES @ 805.0

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 805.1 «« paper »» 09:32

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 805.00 -> Add 09:33

Dark Hammer line as the first 2min interval...be careful. 09:34

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1520.50 09:35

<pat255> hiya em..gm

<Dmi76> Covered all ES Short @ 803.7 --> + 1.3

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 803.90 --> + 1.1

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 804.2 -> Add «« paper »» 09:36

<pat255> S 804.1 paper

out b/e may go up 09:38

<eminitrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1520.50 --> 0 09:39

<les> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 803.4 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1521.50 09:41

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 802.90 --> + 1.9 09:43

Trading Edge:
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Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1520.50 --> + 1 09:44

Covered ES Short @ 1520.50 --> + 1 09:45

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1520.50

<NihabaAshi> Gold did its part in helping bring this down but not Oil :(

If Oil had dropped like Gold at the open...ER2 would have tested 800.00 by now. 09:46

<les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 803.9 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 09:48

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 804.60 --> + 0.2

Price area of the prior Dark Hammer Line has been retested... 09:49

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1522 --> + 1.5

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 805.20 -> small size 09:51

1 only

<eminitrader> be back.. 09:53

<NihabaAshi> We have a few key economic reports at 10am est

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 804.6 «« paper »» 09:54

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 804.50 --> - 0.7 09:55

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 804.50

<Brutus> 1000/1400 Sep Richmond Fed Mfg Index

Manufacturing Index 7

1000/1400 Sep Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index 104.5 105

1000/1400 Aug Existing Home Sales

Total Sales 5.5M 5.75M

Percent Change -4.4% -0.2%

<Dmi76> Shorts ES @ 804.3

Covered all ES Short @ 804.2 --> + 0.1 09:58

<eminitrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1520.50 --> 0 09:59

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 804 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:02

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 804.40 --> + 0.1

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 804.40

ISP caused loss profits on that Short... 10:03

One second I'm at 802 and the next tick its at 804.10

:(

<les> was a very quick ove at 10-00

move

<NihabaAshi> That happen in two different charting programs and two different broker platforms all at the same time :( 10:04

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 804.70 --> + 0.3

That tells me my "ISP" had problems keeping up with the data packets. 10:05

Nothing much I can do...it happens sometimes.

<les> Long ER2 @ 805.3 «« paper »» 10:07

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 805.50 -> small size 10:08

I just heard Bush is on TV :(

That guy loves to show up during key economic report releases :(

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 807.10 --> + 1.6 10:13

<ItalianSharp> bush done 10:18

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1526.50

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 808 --> + 2.7 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> There's that counter-thrust that I feared would occur after such a deep GAP DOWN at the open.

This time I'm Long and can exploit it. 10:19

<ItalianSharp> true...maybe as soon as ER2 and ES fill in their gaps, we'd get some nice short opportunities

<eminitrader> Covered ES Short @ 1527 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1527

<les> Long ER2 @ 808.2 «« paper »» 10:20

<NihabaAshi> Yep...I'm keeping my bearish bias until it fills the GAP if and when such occurs.

Reason why I only use my bias to manage my position size and not my trade direction.

<ItalianSharp> niha, does that mean your bearish bias is on "hold" until ER2 fills in its gap? 10:21

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1526.50 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1526.50

<NihabaAshi> Yes

If/when ER2 fills that GAP...as soon as that occurs I'll then re-examine my bias to make further position size adjustments. 10:22

Until then...I'm mainly larger on the Shorts in comparison to my Longs.

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 807.00 --> + 1.5 10:23

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1525.50 --> + 1 10:24

Shorts ES @ 1526.50 10:26

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 807.2 --> - 1 «« paper »» 10:28

done for today

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1524.50 --> + 2

<szubaark> nice 10:29

<NihabaAshi> weak support here

<eminitrader> thx szu 10:30

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 805.90 -> small size 10:31

1 only

Exited ER2 Long @ 805.30 --> - 0.6 10:32

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 805.30

3 on the short

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1525 «« paper »» 10:33

<NihabaAshi> I'm having more data stalls right now :(

<szubaark> Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1526.25 --> + 1.25 «« paper »» 10:35

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1525 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> :( 10:36

Geeesh

<szubaark> holding remainder for possible Gap close

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 807.00 --> - 1.7 10:37

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1528.25 --> + 3.25 «« paper »» 10:38

<eminitrader> very nice read of the flow szu ..:)

<szubaark> thx. 10:39

<NihabaAshi> I had a 1.2 difference after the data stall cleared up :(

<Brutus> yep good one Szu

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1528.25

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 806.90 -> large size 10:45

:( 10:46

Will need to do a reboot after I close this trade to see if that helps with my data problems. 10:47

<eminitrader> ES fighting stiff res ...before going for a gap fill

1530 area

<pat255> looks like ...small p/b &then back up..

<Dmi76> Shorts ES @ 806.5 10:48

<eminitrader> rememebr though daily chart has shown a bearish move on the Es

<pat255> i c..

<NihabaAshi> geeesh...not again...

My charts just went from 806.80 to 806.10 in two ticks :( 10:50

Have a stop order in place just in case my target is reached when my charts shows something different. 10:51

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1527.75 «« paper »» 10:55

Exited all Long ES at 1526.75 --> - 1 «« paper »» 10:57

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 804.80 --> + 2.1

<pat255> vn ...guys . 10:58

<NihabaAshi> I got my profit goal for the day but I didn't want such to occur via doing a large position size (more money in the broker pockets).

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1526.25 --> + 2

<NihabaAshi> Thus, with my goal for the day under my belt...

<Dmi76> Covered all ES Short @ 805.0 --> + 1.5

<NihabaAshi> 1 contract only for the remainder of the trading day.

Be back soon...gotta do a major reboot that includes shutting down and refresh my routers. 10:59

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Sep 25 11:00:39 2007 11:00

Session Start: Tue Sep 25 11:21:00 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 11:21

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<pat255> vn em ...entry ..wify pulled me to do something ...:(

<Dmi76> Covered all ES Short @ 804.5 --> + 0.6 11:23

<NihabaAshi> Anybody in here having problems with the browser log in method into #FuturesTrades via the following link... 11:29

http://chat.othernet.org/?channel=futurestrades

I got some recent emails it doesn't work anymore for those trying to log in via a computer that's not there's via using the direct link route.

<GoodMood> "applet jchat notinited" (Firefox browser)

<pat255> hmmm link has problems N 11:30

<GoodMood> same with Inetrnet Explorer

<NihabaAshi> Thanks for testing the link to verify there is a problem 11:33

ER2 GAP still has not been filled. 11:37

Thus, I'm still strongly bearish

Shorts ER2 @ 803.80 -> small size

<pat255> u have a pt N...gap fill plus oil gold -ve

<NihabaAshi> 1 only 11:38

<Tim_a> ym failing off of top of 9/19 gap

<GM-Browser> this works 11:42

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 803.70 --> + 0.1 11:46

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<Niha> This is NihabaAshi, I'm just testing an alternative browser log-in method for those that are logging in from a computer that's not their own. 11:51

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 11:54

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 803.30 -> small size

That's what happens when I trade these "low volatility" price action after a volatility spike :( 11:56

Covered ER2 Short @ 804.10 --> - 0.8 11:57

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 804.10

Exited ER2 Long @ 804.40 --> + 0.3 11:59

After all the distractions today...time for a lunch break. 12:00

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<ItalianSharp> tough price action...hard to hold onto winning positions 12:10

<Tim_a> i've found the best way to get strong price action is to be stubborn with a losing position 12:12

<ItalianSharp> lol 12:14

nice one

<Tim_a> sad, but true

<pdays> Long ER2 @ 805.9 12:52

Exited all ER2 Long @ 806.2 --> + 0.3

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 13:11

<NihabaAshi> Looks like this has turned into a range day. 13:12

<ItalianSharp> yes, need a breakout one way or another to make things more interesting 13:14

<NihabaAshi> It's trying now to make new intraday highs. 13:17

It just did.

<ItalianSharp> niha, when you mention new intraday high... 13:19

is that referred to the 9.30-4pm range?

<NihabaAshi> Yes

<ItalianSharp> wouldnt it be more correct, technically speaking, to say intraday high when a globex high is made? i am referring to futures of course 13:20

<NihabaAshi> depends on the type of chart your using.

Regardless, intraday highs or lows are usually in reference to "regular session" times. 13:21

weak resistance here area 13:22

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 13:23

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 807.90 -> small size 13:26

<intowin_away> looks like my order from this am is still in.. 13:28

[07:53] <intowin> order in to sell short at 1536 13:29

probably still short it if it gets there

we are do to retrace at least half of the big green fed candle imo 13:30

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 8807.30 --> + 7999.4 13:33

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 8807.30

ooops...

<bern> nice trade :) 13:34

<NihabaAshi> :)

Anyways...that's a -0.6 and I'm short at 807.30

Shorts ER2 @ 807.30 -> small size 13:35

Looks like I got bronco bucked fairly good in that 1 point range price action 13:36

Oil moving higher but Gold is saving my butt during the last few minutes of price action. 13:39

Covered ER2 Short @ 805.90 --> + 1.4 13:45

<Tim_a> very nice nih, i shadowed you but covered at 806.7 13:46

for +.6

, 13:54

<eminitrader> update on my earlier trade 13:55

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1528.25 --> + 2 13:56

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1525.25 --> + 3

had to go off mirc...or my voip phone does not work properly...will get a new router thrs ...hopefully will sove the problem 13:57

<NihabaAshi> If this can pull back to about 806.80 or lower...it becomes a decent risk trade with easy opportunity to reverse into a Short if wrong. 13:59

Long ER2 @ 806.00 -> small size 14:02

If I'm wrong...it's still an easy position reversal into a Short position. 14:03

without too much of a loss

Dark Hammer Line...be careful 14:05

Exited ER2 Long @ 806.10 --> + 0.1 14:07

Gold and Oil not looking so hot right now...not a good time to be patient with that Long position.

<Tim_a> really doesnt know what it wants, does it 14:33

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 806.80 -> small size 14:39

Covered ER2 Short @ 807.40 --> - 0.6 14:44

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 807.40

Not sure if more volatility will show up to take this into new intraday highs. 14:45

Exited ER2 Long @ 808.40 --> + 1 14:47

weak resistance and it's a great area to battle between Longs and Shorts. 14:53

<werner> niha what do you see for you go to reverse?

<NihabaAshi> If I wanted to go short...

I would like to see long upper shadows on a few intervals before the volatility declines too low. 14:54

<werner> ok thnx 14:55

WRB Analysis

Learn More

<NihabaAshi> If that happens while still up here in the resistance area...I'll keep a close watch for any Bearish signals.

Low volatility without those long upper shadows helps setup a tendency for a volatility spike upwards. 14:56

<werner> k :) 14:57

<NihabaAshi> So far, volatility is declining without any long upper shadows on any intervals via the 2min chart.

Long ER2 @ 808.50 -> small size 14:58

There's the price spike... 14:59

Hopefully it doesn't lose its volatility too fast.

Exited ER2 Long @ 809.70 --> + 1.2 15:00

<werner> nice

<NihabaAshi> If I was wrong I would have gotten burnt for a big lose because the risk was too high to reverse from a Long into a Short. 15:01

<werner> i see 15:02

<NihabaAshi> A GAP fill is within striking distance now...

As we get closer to it I become less Bearish on ER2. 15:03

Shorts ER2 @ 809.50 -> small size 15:04

would be very nice if I would have get a volatility spike downwards about right now. 15:05

This trade was problematic as soon as I entered.

Covered ER2 Short @ 809.00 --> + 0.5 15:06

<werner> save exit here?

lol

<NihabaAshi> Lucky exit and the entry was a trade error. 15:07

It's spiking down now...it may try to retrace the prior White WRB.

<werner> it a big one 15:08

its

<NihabaAshi> I'm glad it gave me +0.5 because I almost took the loss at -0.20 15:09

<werner> :)

<NihabaAshi> That prior volatility spike has been completely retraced. 15:13

<werner> yep

<Tim_a> odd that it didnt appear in es or ym 15:14

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 15:26

<rainer> Long ER2 @ 807.50 15:39

<ItalianSharp> we've been experiencing some hardcore chop lately...i am expecting a big range day any day 15:47

<werner> trendday? 15:48

<ItalianSharp> dont know about trend day...definetely a big range day either way...especially south IMO 15:49

a trend day is a day with little or no retracements

<werner> ok thnx

<ItalianSharp> so we can have a big range day with some nice swings

and with the markets still going nicely one direction

best days to trade IMO

anyways, i almost reached my profit goal for the day today despite the chop, low volatility and skyzofrenic markets 15:50

so i am happy...:))

<werner> :)

<NihabaAshi> If we get a range day tomorrow on declining volatilty...

I'll be expecting a trend day on either Thursday or Friday. 15:51

<ItalianSharp> niha...if volatility declines even more...we might have to use a defribillator on the mkts 15:52

<NihabaAshi> :)

<ItalianSharp> this week is historically a down week for mkts 15:53

<NihabaAshi> I'm going to be prepared to trade tomorrow if it's a low volatility trading day that's also a range day.

<ItalianSharp> yes...until i see some nice volatility kicking in...i am in "scalping" mode 15:54

<NihabaAshi> I'm already lowering my profit goal expectations for tomorrow by 1/2 or about $500 bucks.

<ItalianSharp> it's useless to stay into trades longer, taking more heat to catch a bigger move when mkts just dont give it to you

i've been holding a short for like 2hrs...target was below 13840 and yet YM wouldnt break it...:(( 15:55

i gave it plenty of room...and came out at +3 eventually

that was my reminder contract

guess teh nice summer volatility is gone until summer 2008

<werner> i go to see some tv boys its 9:53 pm here, see you all tomorrow

<ItalianSharp> bye werner 15:56

niha, why are you expecting a range day tomorrow?

bye the way, i am happy CBOT hasnt crashed yet this week...gonna send a "thank you" email to the IT guys there tonite 15:57

wow...mkts putting up a rally with 15mins to go...we'll find out how real this rally is tomorrow i gues 15:58

well, at least YM got out of that nasty range 16:00

hopefully it won't get sucked in there overnite and tomorrow we'll be outside the 13860-13840 range

<rainer> Exited all ER2 Long @ 808.6 --> + 1.1 16:02

Exited all ER2 Long @ 808.60 --> + 1.1

<bern> have a nice evening all 16:06

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:15

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 16:16

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Sep 25 16:37:08 2007 16:37

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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.