#FuturesTrades September 20th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log
#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.
Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.
In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.
Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +8.90 +0.0000 $890.00 $0.00 FOMC Announcement and Volatility Analysis
It's rare an FOMC announcement doesn't live up to its hype and today was one of those lack luster volatility movements.
Too much chop and data feed problems had me walking away feeling I shouldn't have traded this afternoon...just wasn't worth the hassle nor extra broker commissions.
Yet, a very productive day because I spent much of it doing extensive research on desktop computers because I'm about to replace one of my trader workstations so that is compatible with my other computers on the network.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of September...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Wed Sep 20 09:32:24 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now talking in #futurestrades 09:32 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 737.60 -> small size 09:37 3 contracts <eminitrader> morn silo.. all <bykasif> hi all 09:38 <yo> gm all 09:40 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1334.25 <silo1> damn missed my CC short 09:43 hehe * PapaJon is now known as PapaJon_afk <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 736.80 --> - 0.8 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 736.80 <jperl> mostly limeade this morning.... 09:44 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_016.png <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 737.70 --> - 0.9 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 737.70 Long ER2 @ 738.10 -> Add 09:45 2 contract add <eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1335.25 --> + 1 Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1336.75 --> + 2.5 09:50 Sponsor: holding 2 09:51 <szubaark> nice.. <silo1> did some news just came out? <eminitrader> thx szu ...guess only trade till the fomc <szubaark> emini what was yur signal to Long@1334.25? 09:53 <eminitrader> 50% retrace and back to ma's on globex 24 hrs 09:54 actually 40% <szubaark> retrace from yesrsturday's late day rally? 1323 to 1331? 09:55 <eminitrader> no szu ..1331 -1335.50 09:56 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1659 09:58 <eminitrader> 1331 cause thats where my ma's croosed over showing a probability of change in trend from yest..and 1335.50 high at open <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:02 <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 738.70 --> + 0.6 <eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1336.25 --> + 2 Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1336.25 <jperl> ER2 at VWAP 738.30 bias is now short <NihabaAshi> I couldn't hold that ADD and market just wouldn't give me that extra two ticks so that I could dump it around 739.70 :( 10:04 Still holding 3 contracts from the initial position. 10:05 <bykasif> Shorts ER2 @ 738.1 «« paper »» 10:06 <jperl> Here is the volume distribution for ER2.... 10:07 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_017.png <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 738.00 --> + 0.3 :( <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1656.75 --> + 2.25 <jperl> VWAP at 738.30 is below the POC (red line) 10:08 indicating a downward bias If price action moves above POC it will change to an upward bias between the two is no mans land 10:09 <eminitrader> nice szu...good to start with a winner <szubaark> thanks. 10:10 <jperl> We are sitting in no mans land between VWAP and POC and bouncing back and forth 10:12 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 739.00 -> small size 10:13 3 contracts <jperl> Until price breaks out of no mans land we have no bias 10:14 <NihabaAshi> By the way...I have a bullish bias but need to be carefule about the noise because its about 1 point :( 10:15 <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1336.25 --> 0 10:17 <bykasif> Covered all ER2 Short @ 739.4 --> - 1.3 «« paper »» Long ER2 @ 739.4 «« paper »» 10:21 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 739.20 --> + 0.2 10:22 :( Having my trailing stops hit too easily. 10:23 Long ER2 @ 740.20 -> small size 3 contracts only 10:24 Long ER2 @ 741.30 -> Add 10:25 2 contract add. <bykasif> Exited all ER2 Long @ 741.6 --> + 2.2 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> I got the volatility on my side...should test 742 price area Exited ER2 Long @ 742.10 --> + 2.7 10:27 +0.80 and not +2.7 on the 2 contracts. 10:28 Still holding 3 contracts <eminitrader> nice niha 10:30 <szubaark> yeah.. my Indicators are showing Oversold so im chicken to go Long :) Overbought i mean <NihabaAshi> szu...volatility is trending right now. 10:36 I wouldn't consider the Eminis overbought until volatility levels off (go sideways or chop). 10:37 It's trying to do that right now. <bykasif> hi Niha, i am new in this room..a i allowed to ask your indicator u use in your charts? especially to measure volatility? 10:39 <NihabaAshi> bykasif...I don't use any indicators other than price action itself with an occasional verification from the VIX 10:40 <bykasif> ok thx <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 743.40 --> + 3.2 10:46 Still holding 2 contracts Exited ER2 Long @ 743.50 --> + 3.3 10:47 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <silo1> how's everyone doing <NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract only. <silo1> damn i see niha is doing well szu you surviving? <szubaark> yup <NihabaAshi> Hopefully I can hold it going into the FOMC Announcement and not have its trailing stop pick pocketed. 10:48 silo...you should follow the key economic report calendar very closely... 10:52 They give big time hints about when the volatilty will arrive. Volatility = Big Price Moves When there's no volatility (its consolidating or choppy)...my trading suffers. 10:54 <bykasif> Shorts ER2 @ 741.9 «« paper »» 10:58 <jperl> volume distribution for ER2 is now double humped shown here... 10:59 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_018.png 11:00 The major peak is the lower one ast 738.90... and the developing peak is the upper one at 742.50 If the upper one becomes the major peak... 11:01 we should see a price correction back to the VWAP at 740.17 upper peak at 742.50 now the major peak 11:12 VWAP now at 740.34 11:13 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:14 <codehead> short ER 742.10 <paper> 11:17 agressive entry on cci horizontal trendline break 11:18 a little too agressive to take it for real 1 pt stop 11:21 <jperl> VWAP now 740.40 11:22 <NihabaAshi> I'm losing my FOMC Announcement cushion on my remainder :( I need at least a 2 point cushion going into the FOMC release. 11:23 exit stop raised ER2 @ 740.50 11:24 <codehead> shoot, trouble with paper trades is i don't watch--target for half was +1, dipped to -1.1 11:25 got distracted plan was take off half +1, lower stop to b/e 11:26 exit half +.7, lower stop to b/e <paper> stopped out on remainder b/e <paper> 11:33 <bykasif> Covered all ER2 Short @ 742.1 --> - 0.2 «« paper »» 11:34 <silo1> hey jperl, niha, do you find VXN and VIX volitility index useful? 11:35 <jperl> don't use it 11:36 <NihabaAshi> silo...I "ONLY" use it for price direction...not for entry nor exit signals. 11:42 There was an edge that ended several years ago that allowed using VIX for entry or exit signals. 11:43 However, that edge was lost when they changed how VIX was computed. 11:44 It was a decent edge for about 5 years :) Regardless, I think the VIX or any other volatility index like it are only suitable for price direction help, swing or position traders and investors. 11:47 <jperl> Well we got a partial correction to VWAP so far as seen here... 11:51 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_019.png Notice upper peak is now the major peak (red line) with VWAP below at 740.39 11:52 May still continue down to the VWAP 11:53 I took the trade at 742.30...but was stopped out at break even.... here are my executions....enough for a cheap meal this morning... 11:54 http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_0110.png <silo1> niha, that's exactly what i was thinking about vwap... it is a good indicator for gauging the direction and momentum (volitility) of let's say nasdaq or s&p 11:59 right? <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:26 <silo1> bought 450 shares of BMET at 32.91 12:45 <NihabaAshi> Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 740.50 --> + 0.3 12:59 <szubaark> :(( <jperl> VWAP hit 740.60 <szubaark> Niha they pick pocketed you <jperl> took a long time <NihabaAshi> Yep. 13:00 <jperl> We are still in no mans land (the region between VWAP and POC) so we could bounce around in here for a while between 742.20 (POC) and 740.59 (VWAP) 13:01 see graph here... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-09-20/JP ERL_0111.png 13:02 red line= POC, light blue= VWAP <NihabaAshi> [11:59] <silo1> niha, that's exactly what i was thinking about vwap... it is a good indicator for gauging the direction and momentum (volitility) of let's say nasdaq or s&p 13:05 [11:59] <silo1> right? silo...I don't use VWAP. You'll have to ask jperl because he uses it. <silo1> oops i meant to say vnx and vix 13:09 <NihabaAshi> silo, I monitor the trading instrument itself for clues about its volatility. 13:13 However, sometimes its not clear and I'll look at something like VIX or VXN for confirmation. 13:14 <szubaark> silo got my pm? 13:16 <silo1> yeah 13:18 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:35 <pat255> hi all....@office today 13:59 <szubaark> pat :(( <pat255> yeah...but pays the bills until I become better trader... 14:00 amazing mkt up & up... 14:01 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 743.20 -> small size 14:03 2 contracts only When it moves like that...those are usually stop orders being executed. 14:04 Volatility pressure is obviously picking up in the past 5 mins but has been leveling off for about 2 mins. 14:05 Exited ER2 Long @ 742.50 --> - 0.7 14:07 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 742.50 :( 14:08 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 742.3 «« paper »» 14:09 <bykasif> Long ER2 @ 742.5 «« paper »» 14:11 <NihabaAshi> somebody take my order...geesh :( <les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 741.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 14:13 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 740.3 --> + 2 «« paper »» 14:14 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 740.00 --> + 2.5 14:15 <les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 742.2 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> bouncing betty :) <les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 741.9 --> + 0.4 «« paper »» 14:16 <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 741.80 --> + 0.7 <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1338 <bykasif> Exited all ER2 Long @ 740.8 --> - 1.7 «« paper »» 14:18 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1663.50 <les> Interest rates left unchanged <eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1335 --> + 3 14:19 <les> so everything goes wild for a bit <NihabaAshi> My CME data is horrible right now :( <les> nuts <NihabaAshi> all other exchanges data keeping up. <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1659.75 --> + 3.75 <eminitrader> nice :)) 14:20 <codehead> very nice <les> i guess the pit traders live for these moments 14:21 <NihabaAshi> Volatility declining in comparison to the volatility spike. 14:23 <eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1336 --> + 2 14:24 holding 1 <les> vn EM <eminitrader> thx les <les> 5 es pts IS vn :) 14:25 still trying to fill the gap 14:26 has done on the 4min ER2 not on 2 and 3min 14:27 <jperl> explain? are you talking about yesterdays gap <les> no 14:18 er2 14:28 wrb with unfilled gap 2min <jperl> k <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 738.00 -> small size 14:29 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 737 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> 2 contracts only No such thing as a tight stop in this :) 14:30 <jperl> data is all over the place <NihabaAshi> :( <les> this needs time to move down 14:31 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 737.80 --> + 0.2 <szubaark> trading this would be suicide for me.. i used to do it when i was a newb. 14:33 <les> hehe - join the club, szu thats why i'm in sim now more fun <NihabaAshi> szu...gotta wait for the volatility to drop "after" the release. 14:34 Before the release or within minutes before...its a rodeo ride. Long ER2 @ 739.10 -> small size <pat255> yup ... <NihabaAshi> 3 contracts I'm willing to bet 3 that the bouncy betty stuff is settle down. 14:35 <pat255> u have guts niha on that pre release trade...worked well <pdays> oil @ $61.50 14:36 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 738.9 --> - 1.9 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 77.80 --> - 661.3 14:38 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 77.80 Oooops... 14:39 Shorts ER2 @ 737.80 -> small size <les> Shorts ER2 @ 736.9 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> -1.3 on that Long 14:40 Covered all ER2 Short @ 737.40 --> + 0.4 14:42 Looks like the FOMC announcement is a big bust... 14:44 Didn't see the type of volatility I was expecting. 14:45 <silo1> aye <pat255> yeah...was expected they were not going to rais.. <silo1> interest rate stayed the same <NihabaAshi> It's close to being the same volatilty as any other key economic report. In reference to other FED stuff like the Philly FED report. 14:46 <jperl> wish these agencies would make there announcements before or after market hours 14:47 <NihabaAshi> Anybody in here using XP Professional SP2 (no x64) that came pre-installed with their desktop (not as an upgrade from XP Home) ??? <les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 736.4 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 736.70 -> small size <eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1333 --> + 5 * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away 14:49 <szubaark_away> emini NICE JOB! 14:50 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 736.80 --> + 0.1 <eminitrader> thx szu ...was waiting all day ...for a good trade <pat255> vn emini.. 14:51 <eminitrader> thx pat <les> thats a fat 10 es pts total - nice em <eminitrader> not been a good wk so far les ...glad to have made some today 14:52 <les> ) <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 736.90 -> small size Covered ER2 Short @ 737.80 --> - 0.9 14:54 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 737.80 Long ER2 @ 738.50 -> Add <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 738 --> - 1.1 «« paper »» sorry, late <NihabaAshi> That's a total of two contracts. :( 14:56 Momentum shows up than quickly goes flat. 14:57 Meant volatility <pat255> fast finfers only <NihabaAshi> Or slow fingers with a TON of patience :) 14:58 <pat255> :) yes <jperl> approaching ER2 VWAP 739.93 <NihabaAshi> Was hoping for the market to counter-thrust back up to the pre formc levels around 742 15:01 Not in the cards based on the lackluster volatility since 2:45pm est 15:02 Volatility dropping fast...expecting a volatility spike. 15:03 <pat255> theer u go niha.. 15:04 <yo> how can you see that niha <NihabaAshi> Yep Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 741.00 --> + 2.5 <les> yo - just before this spike... <pat255> vn <les> the volume dropped away <NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract still. <les> at same time the price action showed small bars 15:05 contraction <yo> thnx les <les> another clue, is that the speed of price movement become sluggish 15:06 <NihabaAshi> Yo...I saw a minimum of three consecutive small bodies and they went from larger of the small bodies to the smallest of the small bodies in consecutive intervals. Thus, occurred after a WRB (wide range body). <yo> on the 1 min frame niha 15:07 <NihabaAshi> Les...yes...the speed or momentum of the prints. <les> niha - to me thats a really crucuial one <NihabaAshi> Yo...usually 2min or 3min charts. <les> if i start falling asleep in front of the screen... 15:08 its because everyone else is not trading much... so it means sideways, small moves <NihabaAshi> Yo...you can use the 1min chart but its just not a favorite for me. <les> time for me to go 15:09 <yo> ok thnx <les> didnt trade live today - too much other stuff to do, and not had enuff sleep thats a danger one for me cya all tomorrow <yo> cya <pat255> k guys ...back to work ..ty all 15:10 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 739.60 --> + 1.8 15:11 Should'uv gotten out at 740.00 but try to exit for a tick better...no fill. 15:12 <yo> so u use the 2or the 3 min chart for early wrb's in combi white the 5 min wrb? 15:14 <NihabaAshi> I use only the 2min and 3min chart for Declining Volatility Analysis. 15:16 <yo> ok <NihabaAshi> Yet, I'll use almost any chart interaval for WRB Analysis. <yo> k 15:18 <NihabaAshi> Volatility consolidating...my trading day is over and not worth hanging around for the FOMC Announcement :( 15:21 <silo1> wasn't the fomc announcement already over at 2.15? 15:22 <Steve_0> niha how do you have an indicator that measures volatility of the chart or you only watch price movement? 15:28 <NihabaAshi> someone asked that question earlier...will repost my answer... 15:44 [10:39] <bykasif> hi Niha, i am new in this room..a i allowed to ask your indicator u use in your charts? especially to measure volatility? 15:45 [10:40] <NihabaAshi> bykasif...I don't use any indicators other than price action itself with an occasional verification from the VIX [13:13] <NihabaAshi> silo, I monitor the trading instrument itself for clues about its volatility. 15:46 [13:14] <NihabaAshi> However, sometimes its not clear and I'll look at something like VIX or VXN for confirmation. [15:03] <NihabaAshi> Volatility dropping fast...expecting a volatility spike. 15:47 [15:04] <pat255> theer u go niha.. [15:04] <yo> how can you see that niha [15:06] <les> another clue, is that the speed of price movement become sluggish 15:48 [15:06] <NihabaAshi> Yo...I saw a minimum of three consecutive small bodies and they went from larger of the small bodies to the smallest of the small bodies in consecutive intervals. [15:06] <NihabaAshi> Thus, occurred after a WRB (wide range body). [15:07] <yo> on the 1 min frame niha [15:07] <NihabaAshi> Les...yes...the speed or momentum of the prints. [15:07] <les> niha - to me thats a really crucuial one [15:07] <NihabaAshi> Yo...usually 2min or 3min charts. [15:08] <les> if i start falling asleep in front of the screen... [15:08] <les> its because everyone else is not trading much... [15:08] <les> so it means sideways, small moves [15:08] <NihabaAshi> Yo...you can use the 1min chart but its just not a favorite for me. [15:14] <yo> so u use the 2or the 3 min chart for early wrb's in combi white the 5 min wrb? [15:16] <NihabaAshi> I use only the 2min and 3min chart for Declining Volatility Analysis. [15:16] <yo> ok [15:16] <NihabaAshi> Yet, I'll use almost any chart interaval for WRB Analysis. Steve_O...that's the answer. 15:49 <Steve_0> Thanks a lot niha! <NihabaAshi> Your welcome. 15:51 <Steve_0> Niha I would like to ask you something about the strategies in the web site. Can I pm you? 15:53 <NihabaAshi> Yes 15:55 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:59 <NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:18 It was an uneventful fomc announcement :( * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away * DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Sep 20 16:24:07 2006 16:24 Sponsor:
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