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August 29th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, NihabaAshi is the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com strategies.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+15.50 +0.0000

$1,550.00 $0.00

FOMC Minutes

Today was very confusing in the first hour of trading because I expected some follow-through to the upside from yesterday's trend day.

In addition, I had two poor entries (losing trades) that cost me more than a point each along with one badly manage 1/3 remainder in one particular trade that was a loss even though the first two contracts in that position were exited at a profit.

Yet, when the FED speech begin around 1:30pm est that was soon followed by the 2:00pm est FOMC Minutes...volatility was great and setup some nice pattern signals and intuition trades.

Also, on a few occasions, I will post the trading reports strategy discussion from #SwingTradingTSL that sheds more detailed information about some of my trades.

However, the above log is only available for access by fee-based clients of the Swing Trading Report (STR) whereas the #FuturesTrades log that shows the trades of non-clients and my own trades are posted below as usual.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of August...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

Session Start: Tue Aug 29 09:30:08 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:30

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<pat255> gm all 09:34

may be choppy today.. 09:37

I have in back of my mind that becuz eom dressing started early yesterday might have been fake...but still early to make that determination 100%

<les> so not much will change :)

Shorts ER2 @ 708.7 «« paper »» 09:38

<substanz> Long YM @ 11360 «« paper »» 09:39

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 709.40 -> small size 09:41

2 contracts...intuition trade. 09:42

ER2 volatility is dying as it approaches the 10am est Consumer Confidence report. 09:43

<les> Long ER2 @ 709.6 «« paper »» 09:44

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1571.25

<substanz> Exited all YM Long @ 11366 --> + 6 «« paper »»

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 708.4 --> - 1.2 «« paper »» 09:45

<pat255> es holding well

<NihabaAshi> Trying to survive this volatility spike. 09:46

I'm still looking for a new intraday high.

Exited ER2 Long @ 708.70 --> - 0.7 09:47

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 708.70

<szubaark> looks like the volatility is positioning for the news 09:48

<NihabaAshi> Yep...its dying again.

<les> for some reason the script didnt post my "exit short and enter long"

so did it manually

but i guess 2 losses in a row, means decidining to continue with sim for now makes sense 09:49

<pat255> script gives problems ..sigh

atleast to me in mirc

<les> usually doesnt with me - might've pressed something wrong

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 709.50 --> - 0.8 09:50

<les> mkt so far is doing it:

its:

"i'm going up, but not really, fooled u" thing

<asd> Short ER2 @ 709.6 risk 2 09:51

<les> or: "i'm going down, but not really, fooled u"

dont i love tight ranges

<Chilly> Long ER2 @ 709.80 09:52

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 710.10 -> small size 09:53

3 contracts

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1571.25

<les> Long ER2 @ 710 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> :( 09:54

Don't like this price action.

<Chilly> Exited all ER2 Long @ 709.80 --> 0 09:56

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 710.20 --> + 0.1 09:57

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 710.4 --> + 0.4 «« paper »» 09:58

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 710.50 --> + 0.4 09:59

<les> exit stop raised ER2 @ 709.1 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1574.25 --> + 3

<les> ouch 10:00

<szubaark> heheh.. whats new

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 708.80 --> - 1.3

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 708.80

<pdays> Shorts YM @ 11364 «« paper »»

<les> that dropped so quick i missed pt 2 and got my stop filled

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 709.1 --> - 0.9 «« paper »»

<asd> Exit ER2 @ 708.8

<pdays> Covered all YM Short @ 11359 --> + 5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> It's going to hold :(

<pat255> wow what a drop ...they are going to chop us up.. 10:01

<les> ok, niha, but WHATS it going to hold? :))

<Chilly> Shorts YM @ 11366

exit stop set YM @ 11365 10:02

Trailing Stop Hit YM @ 11365 --> + 1

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 709.40 --> - 0.6

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 709.40

3 contracts 10:03

Chop city 10:05

<les> whipsaw country

<szubaark> Today, News was worthless 10:06

<les> usually thats caused by the rumour mills working overtime

<NihabaAshi> Looks like its going to shake me out again unless it can make a new intraday high one more time.

<pat255> whipsaw... 10:07

<NihabaAshi> ER2 just lost its breadth.

Meant EuroFX

<les> everyone else is losing their pants 10:08

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 709.50 --> + 0.1

<szubaark> Niha nice Exit.

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 708.30 -> small size 10:09

3 contracts...looking to add to it if it picks up momentum.

:( 10:10

I enter at on a volatility spike.

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 707.9 «« paper »»

one more shot :)

<szubaark> emini u just watching? 10:11

<eminitrader> yeah szu ...want to protect my profit for the month 10:12

<szubaark> Niha i hate these "Volatility" bars where u think its going down more, they snap back up to dink you out

<eminitrader> not worth giving any back ..even commish....

<szubaark> yes, you had a nice month overall. 10:13

<NihabaAshi> I didn't see it was a volatility interval until I changed my interval after entry :(

<eminitrader> was okay szu ...considering it was aug :)

<szubaark> Niha what timeframe u watching at opening?

<NihabaAshi> 2min and 5min today 10:14

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 708.2 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Just went to a 2min, 3min and 15min format a few minutes ago.

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 707.4 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 10:15

<NihabaAshi> Will take and early exit to get profitable for the day...then take a break to re-examine this Chop because something doesn't feel right about it (my initial analysis is wrong). 10:16

<les> exit stop moved to breakeven ER2 @ 707.9 «« paper »»

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 707.3 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:17

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 706.90 --> + 1.4

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 707.5 «« paper »»

<substanz> Long YM @ 11349 «« paper »»

<les> Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 707.5 --> + 0.4 «« paper »» 10:18

<substanz> Exited all YM Long @ 11344 --> - 5 «« paper »» 10:20

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 706.5 «« paper »» 10:21

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 706.80 --> + 1.5 10:22

<asuni> niha, every trade with 3 contracts? 10:24

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 706.30 -> small size

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 706 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:25

<NihabaAshi> 1 contract only

<les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 706.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:26

<Chilly> Long YM @ 11342 10:29

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 706.20 -> Add 10:30

2 contract add

I think I see a little light at the tunnel :)

Meant at the end of the tunnel :)

Don't think I can get much more out of this trade. 10:34

Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 705.60 --> + 0.6 10:35

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 705.90 --> + 0.4 10:37

<substanz> Shorts YM @ 11339 «« paper »» 10:50

<pat255> er whiplash...unless u have cjones 10:52

niha u are on right track with S

emini u not trading today? 10:55

L er 705...

tight stop 5 ticks 10:56

out er 10:57

<substanz> Covered all YM Short @ 11340 --> - 1 «« paper »»

<les> well i think thats enough fun for today 10:58

<pat255> always get out early

<les> cya all tomorrow

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:36

<NihabaAshi> This thing could keep dropping "creeper downtrend" all the way into today's 1:30pm est speech and the 2:00pm est FOMC Minutes. 11:48

<pat255> looks like niha.. 11:56

then we got to prepare for the hurricane lol..ernesto

S er @.5 paper .. 12:09

<NihabaAshi> I wasn't going to factor in the Hurricane or tropical storm stuff until Weds - Fri trading action. 12:12

<pat255> right niha it prolly will hit wed/thu stilll hugging the cuban coast 12:13

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:45

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch 13:02

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:57

<szubaark> 3 minutes FOMC minutes

* NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi 14:02

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1299 14:03

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 706.40 -> small size 14:05

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1562.75

<NihabaAshi> Punks... 14:06

That's 707.40

Will correct...

Long ER2 @ 707.40 -> small size 14:07

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1564.25 --> + 1.5

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1301.25 -> Add 14:08

<NihabaAshi> I had an order in for 707.00 and it skipped right through it without any fill...

<szubaark> they doing some nice manuvering here..cleaning longs and shorts 14:09

probobly chop rest of day.

<eminitrader> good one szu 14:10

<NihabaAshi> szu...looks like they are going to clean me :(

<szubaark> im happy to be plus for today, just will watch now 14:11

<eminitrader> wise movw :)

<NihabaAshi> I'm not sure it I'm lucky or smart to stay in the trade :) 14:12

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 710.10 --> + 2.7 14:13

<szubaark> Niha this is what you like, when it moves nutso like this

<eminitrader> nic e one given the crappy mrkt

<NihabaAshi> True...

I had a valid understanding of the price action but my entry signal was an error.

Knowing the price action going into the entry signal is the only reason why I stayed in the trade. 14:14

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 711.50 --> + 4.1 14:15

<szubaark> GO NIHA!

<NihabaAshi> I got an order in at 714.20

Lets see if it can get hit.

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1303.25 14:16

last add ...holding 3 avg 1301.25 14:17

<NihabaAshi> I wondeer what was said in those FOMC minutes notes by the fed. 14:23

<szubaark> so Niha, Sept thru Dece should be better trading conditions then July-August was?

<NihabaAshi> It has been for "every year" since 1990. 14:24

Reason why Sept - Dec is a good time to put on some size. 14:25

A few of those years...January was also a good trading month.

Simply, a lot of "market seasonal patterns" are occurring between Sept - January. 14:26

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1301.25 --> + 2 14:27

<szubaark> emini u breakeven on that?

<eminitrader> no thats a b/e minus commish

yes szu

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 710.80 --> + 3.4 14:29

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 710.80

<eminitrader> nice one niha

<NihabaAshi> Can't ignore the signals especially when the price action is easily understood after those FOMC minutes in comparison to feeling lost early this morning in my trading. 14:32

Yet, I'm taking a little heat on my 1 contract short position.

tighning up my stop.

If it was still early in the morning...I would have added to this short around 711.70 14:34

Looks like a WRB is going to form and give me a very small WRB pt1 :( 14:35

Covered ER2 Short @ 712.00 --> - 1.2 14:36

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 712.00

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1303.50 14:37

<NihabaAshi> If it wasn't for the closely watch Oil situation due to the pending Hurricane... 14:38

I would convert this single contract day trade into an overnight hold.

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 712.10 --> + 0.1 14:39

:(

Long ER2 @ 713.60 -> small size 14:40

2 contracts only

Too much resistance above Aug 23rd highs. 14:44

Thought it had enough energy to test the Aug 17th highs 14:46

Resistance area from several trading days ago and now some Long Upper Shadows... 14:49

Not looking good for me.

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 713.60 --> 0 14:52

:(

Lost my patience...fighting that wall too much.

EuroFX still holding onto her gains. 14:54

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:09

<yo> no trade's anymore niha? 15:11

<NihabaAshi> Nothing to trade 15:12

<yo> k thnx

<NihabaAshi> Just price noise up in this resistance area.

Shorts ER2 @ 711.80 -> small size 15:14

It's a chaser.

1 contract only

I missed a signal @ 712.40 15:15

It snuck right by me while I was putting some paper work through the shredder :( 15:16

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1302.50 --> + 1

<yo> :(

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 713.00 --> - 1.2 15:18

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 713.00

2 contracts and I'm back in that resistance area...

I think it has some energy (its second wind) after the small pullback.

If it can test the 714 area with some momentum...I will add one contract and try to dump it around 714.50 15:19

Long ER2 @ 714.10 -> Add 15:20

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 715.00 --> + 0.9 15:23

Got greedy on that contract :)

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 715.10 --> + 2.1 15:26

<Chilly> Exited all YM Long @ 11385 --> + 43 15:27

<NihabaAshi> Nice one Chilly.

<Chilly> thanks, hice day you're having!! 15:28

<NihabaAshi> Two poor trades cost me more than a point for each but luckily they were only 1 contract trades. 15:29

The highs for ER2 recently is on Aug 17th @ 716.40 15:30

<Chilly> yeah, I'm making up yesterday's loss 15:32

<NihabaAshi> That's a decent profit target or WRB area for my remainder although I believe ER2 is already beyond its ATR.

<Chilly> YM has time to break yesterday's high, but I bailed as things get dicey in last 45 minutes, maybe I left money on table. 15:33

bingo Niha 716.40 15:35

<NihabaAshi> Yes...but I'm paying the price for getting greedy.

Waited for a expansion interval and didn't get it :( 15:36

ER2 volatility is dying...hopefully this plays into my favor and produces a volatility spike with expansion bar. 15:40

If not...it'll take me out of the trade.

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 716.20 --> + 3.2 15:52

<Chilly> good trading! that's it for me ... gn all 15:53

<NihabaAshi> Same here and had some mental energy for this afternoon after a long nap during lunchtime... 15:54

Woke up just in time to see the price reaction to the FOMC minutes. 15:55

Take care all.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:21

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Aug 29 17:00:46 2006 17:00

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