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#FuturesTrades August 14th Monday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+52.40	+293.90	+2279.10
$5,240	$29,390	$227,910

Profitable Trade

0942am - 0954am est

Losing Trade

0932am - 0934am est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

Trading today via WRB Analysis: Market conditions change often during the year and profitable traders that's been profitable for many years will know how to exploit a changed environment.

The trading session today is related (as it has been for about a month) to the increased volatility and any trader not paying attention to the VIX or VXN will have difficulty in exploiting this type of price action.

For example, take a look at your key market breadth index charts the VIX or VXN via the 2min chart interval. You should be able to see the range contraction for several intervals soon after 3:15pm est.

What happen next was a WRB range expansion (volatility spike) below the support zone established by that range contraction.

This is very bullish and the Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ and YM) all went northwards very strongly in a very impressive rally.

The lesson learned today is that during increasing or expanding volatility conditions in the trading year...it's very profitable to monitor the VIX and VXN.

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Thu Aug 16 09:29:46 2007Session Ident: #FuturesTrades

* Now talking in #FuturesTrades 09:29

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

* Retrieving #FuturesTrades modes... 09:30

<pat255> gm all

bloodbath..

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 751.00 -> large size 09:32

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:33

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 752.30 --> - 1.3 09:34

<pdays> Long ER2 @ 751.5 «« paper »»

<pat255> :(

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 753.80 -> large size 09:35

<pdays> Exited all ER2 Long @ 754.3 --> + 2.8 «« paper »» 09:36

<base> Nice start 09:37

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 753.00 --> - 0.8 09:38

It's chopping higher so far. 09:41

Long ER2 @ 754.50 -> large size 09:42

:( 09:43

more chop

Exited ER2 Long @ 758.50 --> + 4 09:45

<pat255> vn N..

<NihabaAshi> Holding 2 contracts

Exited ER2 Long @ 760.10 --> + 5.6 09:46

Holding 1 contract remainder

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 756.10 --> + 1.6 09:54

<pat255> back to the lows.. 09:57

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 754.50 -> small size 09:59

3 only

ER2 trying hard to find some support here. 10:01

Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 753.00 --> + 1.5 10:02

Trading Edge:
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Trading Strategies -> These strategies, from entry to exit, will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<pat255> N u have guts to play the L &S side... 10:04

<NihabaAshi> By the way, I open up #FuturesTrades so that anyone can log in without a password. 10:05

I'll keep it like this until the room hits +30 members again.

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 754.40 --> + 0.1 10:06

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1399 «« paper »»

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1397.5 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 10:07

<Elkramer> nice Brutus 10:09

quick

<Brutus> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1454.25 --> - 55.25 «« paper »» 10:11

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1454.25 «« paper »»

oops

<szubaark_away> when is change over to December?

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1400.5 «« paper »»

still short 10:12

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 755.50 -> small size 10:14

2 only

<Brutus> huge down move coming 10:15

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 754.90 --> + 0.6

<szubaark_away> that was quick Niha 10:16

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...I got 3 ticks more than I was expecting...decided to take it.

<szubaark_away> Shorts ES @ 1398 «« paper »» 10:18

<pat255> szy EM still on vacation? 10:19

<szubaark_away> looks like it.

<Brutus> EM around the world in 80 days

<AusTrader00> gm.. 10:20

another wild day.

<Brutus> 08/16/2007 10:20 *DJ Moody's Sees Possibility Of Major Hedge Fund Collapse 10:21

<Elkramer> that s why it s a hedge fund

risky

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 754.00 --> + 1.5

<szubaark_away> Covered all Short ES at 1395 --> + 3 «« paper »» 10:23

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 751.60 -> small size 10:24

1 contract only

Dark Hammer line on the 1min chart could make some a little brave (not me). 10:25

<Elkramer> :) 10:26

<szubaark_away> lowest timeframe Ill go to in 3min

<Brutus> Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1391.5 --> - 62.75 «« paper »» 10:28

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 750.00 --> + 1.6

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1399 «« paper »»

Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1391.5 --> + 7.5 «« paper »»

<szubaark_away> nice B

<Brutus> thx

<Elkramer> Brutus fabulous

<NihabaAshi> 7.5 ES points...very nice.

<Brutus> thx looking for a climax low today with a possible stong reversal 10:29

Feb 27th low is spx 1365 10:30

<Elkramer> Brutus and Nihaba, thx for your wisdom

Portugal falling apart

- 4% 10:31

<Brutus> dax holding -2%

<NihabaAshi> This is the best area right now for ER2 to find some support in comparison to its prior attempts on the way back down.

<Elkramer> BMW and VW holding

Autos 10:32

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 750.30 -> small size

1 contract only

<Elkramer> I m buying here Dax futures 10:33

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1399 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 752.40 --> + 2.1 10:35

Looks like the 1030am EIA Natural GAS report gave it a shot in the arm for a nice counter-thrust. 10:38

* lesAway is now known as les 10:41

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 754.8 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1399 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:44

Shorts ES @ 1400.5 «« paper »» 10:46

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1399.5 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<pat255> S 58.1 er 10:47

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 758.2 -> Add «« paper »»

<Brutus> Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1398 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 10:48

<pat255> out er 10:49

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 756.2 --> + 2 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1397.5 --> + 3 «« paper »» 10:50

Shorts ES @ 1400.5 «« paper »» 10:52

Covered all ES Short @ 1401.5 --> - 1 «« paper »»

<szubaark_away> Buys ES @ 1401.50 «« paper »» 10:53

<Elkramer> up Dax

<les> i wonder if the fed is buying

looks too artificial to me 10:54

<Brutus> 08/16/2007 10:56 Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 2.68 to 33.35 10:57

<les> lod test likely 11:01

<pat255> y les looks like

<szubaark_away> i was looking for High test first

<Brutus> LOD+ agree 11:02

<les> yeah, it had to go take a look there first

<szubaark_away> High test it is 11:05

<les> well if it isnt, we got egg on our faces for expressing our opinions too early :)

<Brutus> 1405

Shorts ES @ 1405 «« paper »» 11:06

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1404 --> + 1 «« paper »»

Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1402.5 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»

Covered all ES Short @ 1401.5 --> + 3.5 «« paper »» 11:07

<szubaark_away> that was quick B.. scalping the S&*^% out of the ES

<Brutus> :)) 11:08

Shorts ES @ 1404 «« paper »» 11:09

<ItalianSharp> wow...is esignal datafeed correct?

ER2 new highs???

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1403 --> + 1 «« paper »»

Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1402.5 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 11:10

<szubaark_away> Yes..ER waiting on ES to catch up

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1404 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:11

too much consensus on LOD :)

<les> hehe

<szubaark_away> ER on Anabol 50 :)) 11:12

<les> i still dont trust this rally just yet

<Brutus> + GH 11:13

<les> bbiaw 11:14

<Brutus> this could be a top for this move 11:15

<les> its sitting on a lotta support right now... so this area's crucial 11:26

<Brutus> Possible LOD test or selloff can coincide with lunch which would be ideal

<les> could well happen that way

<Brutus> But I trade the candles...when it lines up :) 11:27

Dax close -2% 11:30

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 756.6 --> - 1.8 «« paper »» 11:35

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 753 «« paper »» 11:36

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 751.7 «« paper »» 11:37

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 751.7 --> + 3.1 «« paper »» 11:39

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1394.75 «« paper »»

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1393.75 --> + 1 «« paper »»

Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1393.25 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 11:40

Covered all ES Short @ 1394.75 --> 0 «« paper »»

Shorts ES @ 1396 «« paper »» 11:41

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1395 --> + 1 «« paper »»

Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1394.5 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 11:42

<base> Amazing execution rate. :)

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1396 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:44

<NihabaAshi> Incredible up and down range today...very nice. 11:45

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead

<werner> :)

<base> Nice roller coaster 11:47

<Brutus> thx B home runs are not my forte, so this better for now. One day I will get a 10 pointer :) 11:50

1200/1600 Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Index 11:52

Business Activity 8 9.2

<NihabaAshi> 12noon Philly FED up next :) 11:56

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1394.5 «« paper »» 11:57

exit stop set ES @ 1396.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> volatility dropping fast... 11:58

Looking for a volatility spike here soon. 11:59

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1393.25 --> + 1.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 752.60 -> small size 12:00

1 only

<Brutus> Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1389 --> + 5.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 750.30 --> + 2.3 12:01

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1388 --> + 6.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 752.20 -> small size 12:03

2 only

VIX just went higher...be careful 12:04

Exited ER2 Long @ 751.60 --> - 0.6 12:05

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 751.60

<Brutus> 08/16/2007 12:03 *DJ Philadelphia Fed Aug Business Index 0.0 Vs Jul 9.2 12:06

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 749.40 --> + 2.2 12:08

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1385.50 «« paper »»

<Brutus> 08/16/2007 12:07 *DJ Dollar Drops To Fresh Multi-Month Low Below Y113.60

<NihabaAshi> VIX still pushing higher...keeping me still in my short position. 12:09

<Brutus> Getting ugly naz gives up gains for the year

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 744.00 --> + 7.6 12:11

<pat255> mama mia N ..vn

<NihabaAshi> Thank you VIX :)

Wow...today I've used the following:

S/R Zones 12:12

Japanese Candlesticks

VIX/VXN

Oil and Gold

Treasury Futures

And a little luck

:)

Everything is working :)

<Brutus> vix at HOD 35 DT, vn n

<NihabaAshi> I'm going to try "astrology" on my next trade :) 12:13

<Brutus> Low could be in

Big rally time

<_sep34> lol....:)

<Brutus> 08/16/2007 12:20 DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Down $3; Stock-Led Selloff Quickens 12:20

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1385.50 --> 0 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Quote from Spectre2007: 12:27

keep your newswires open... the minute the FED cuts rates, everyone will cover shorts at the same time.

I'm not saying its going to happen today. But watch for it.

NQ still near lows and no ES follow through 12:33

another morgage company colapses 12:34

http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/19 6691 12:40

08/16/2007 12:42 DJ Ariz Mortgage Lender First Magnus Financial Shutting Down 12:42

wanted to sell 1388.5 :(( 12:43

getting close the Feb/Mar lows 12:45

<AusTrader00> this is horrid...!!!! 12:49

it affecting the whole darn world this sub prime thing... 12:50

<Brutus> http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={b2340 2e5-5850-41be-b826-e56f3a06e153} 12:52

yep

<NihabaAshi> Wow...if Countrywide Financial Corp goes down the drain...many more will follow. 12:58

Yet, its already a big mess. 12:59

<Brutus> http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={c8434 e19-f5d0-4c44-ad18-1b299a11e538} 13:00

Long ES @ 1376.5 «« paper »» 13:01

exit stop set ES @ 1374.5 «« paper »»

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1379 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»

Exited all ES Long @ 1377.5 --> + 1 «« paper »» 13:02

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 739.50 -> small size 13:03

Try to grab a 738.50 but was too slow

1 only 13:04

too jumpy for me 13:05

Exited ER2 Long @ 740.70 --> + 1.2 13:06

Weak support and as long as the VIX doesn't power up again... 13:09

This support should hold above the 738.50 area

Long ER2 @ 742.30 -> small size 13:11

1 only 13:12

I'm looking for a profit target above the 745.30 price area

Exited ER2 Long @ 746.00 --> + 3.7 13:15

Geesh...feels like another "armed robbery" trading day. 13:16

I must be on the FBI

<pat255> vn n

<NihabaAshi> "most wanted" list :)

Amazing volatility....they will be talking about July - August trading for many years. 13:18

I wouldn't be surprise to see more discussions about "volatility analysis" within the next month. 13:19

<ItalianSharp> niha, did you ever experience such volatility over your 20+ yrs of trading? 13:20

<NihabaAshi> Not consistently like this for consecutive weeks. 13:21

I've seen a few back to back trading days like this during the price action in the late 90's

<ItalianSharp> have you guys taken a look at forex currencies? 13:22

USDJPY, EURAUD, EURJPY, GPBJPY all look INSANE

<NihabaAshi> July - October of 98 was a great duration of volatility. 13:23

I had a lot of 10 - 15 point gainers back then.

<pat255> wow 13:24

<NihabaAshi> However, like all years or every year...volatility goes into this dormant stage after a few months of great trading.

Until it spikes the next time.

However, 2003 through May 2006 was dead. 13:25

That's when I dramatically began reducing my overall position size and I switched from ES (declining volatility) to ER2 (increasing volatility). 13:26

<ItalianSharp> looking at the currency markets, i gotta think today major central banks stepped in 13:38

never seen such a day in FOREX

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:45

<werner> niha are you tranding more then 20 years now? 13:58

trandig=trading 13:59

<Pepe> :) 14:00

<NihabaAshi> Yes and studying the markets longer than that. 14:01

<werner> wosa 14:02

:) 14:03

<NihabaAshi> :( 14:13

That was fast...it made its move before I can get in.

<werner> hihi

what a market 14:14

100 points in les then 5 min 14:15

ym 14:16

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 766.60 -> small size

1 only

<base> Unbelievable moves. 14:17

<NihabaAshi> Great volatility again

Covered ER2 Short @ 764.30 --> + 2.3 14:18

<intowin> just got in.. any reason for the rebound that we know about? 14:27

WRB Analysis

Learn More

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1401.50 «« paper »» 14:30

<Brutus> just over due IT, 13:50 some rumour on Breifing.com about Fed going to hold and unschedualed meeting, typical BS to explain the move 14:31

<intowin> thanks 14:32

looks like the belief was short lived

<Brutus> the close will tell, I think there will be a very strong run into the close, if so gap up open. 14:34

<intowin> those prices probably triggered a good amount of buys 14:35

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1400 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 14:53

not going anywhere

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:48

<NihabaAshi> Unbelievable range since 3:12pm est 16:12

If it reaches 775 that would be a 30 point range.

Looks like I picked the wrong time of the day to call it quits :) 16:13

<ItalianSharp> after today's rally, i think the big correction might be over

eminis fighting for their lives near lows...and then putting up such a rally

mkts closed at HOD 16:14

very bullish

<Brutus> US STOCKS DOWN IN VOLATILE SESSION 16:15

As liquidity dries up around the globe, signs of investor panic start to emerge. Dow now down around 184 points and Nasdaq declines 49, with selling accelerating at noon after the release of weaker-than-expected factory data.

============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========

DJIA down 51.87 points to 12809.28

NASDAQ down 15.70 points to 2443.13

S&P 500 up 3.33 points to 1410.20

10-year T-note up 98/32 at 1101 4/32 yield 4.608

NYMEX Spot Crude down $2.33 at $71.00/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro down 0.0010 at 1.3412

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 16:31

<NihabaAshi> That ER2 +30 point rally after 3:12pm est was like seeing Rocky win his second fight against Apollo 16:43

I kepted hearing the "Eye of the Tiger" theme song during that move upwards :) 16:44

Take care all and it was a great trading day.

Hope all made good profits and/or taking great notes about this volatility so that the next time it appears you can profit from it.

<werner> gn all 16:49

:) 16:50

<codehead> i did pretty well today, but... I bought the YM last-hour dip, it dropped another 26, was gettign late and i was up decent so i just put in sell for +10 ticks... it just closed +340 from my buy 17:03

no, +340 from my exit actually 17:04

<NihabaAshi> wow 17:07

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 17:09

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Aug 16 17:35:37 2007 17:35

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#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.