August 8th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, NihabaAshi is the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com strategies.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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ER2 EuroFX EC
+34.80 +0.0000
$3,480.00 $0.00

Position Size Management

I often get emails or pm's from traders asking how do I decide when to go large or small on a trade because I consistently exploit such to close my trading days at a profit.

First of all, most of my position size management is based upon experience and common sense.

For example, yesterday I returned back from a very long vacation. The odds are high I was not going to be in tune with the market conditions.

Therefore, yesterday was a good day to keep the position size small...such is what I did.

Here's another example, I don't ignore my trade signals even though I may have a bias in the opposite direction.

Therefore, I often use my bias to dictate my position size management...large on the shorts and small on the longs in a particular trading day or vice versa.

Many years ago (90's) I use to fear FOMC Announcement trading days...often taking the day off from the markets.

As the years went by...I would take trades if a pattern signal appeared on a FOMC Announcement trading day.

Recent years to current...I try to keep my position size small in the a.m. and slowly bump up the size going into the FOMC announcement.

Simply, I've learned that big profitable trading days are often (not always) associated with key economic report trading days such as a FOMC Announcement trading day.

With that said, the above (my recent trading habits) is not recommended for a newbie trader...it takes years to gain the experience and confidence to trade on trading days like today.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of August...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and you can view the charts associated with the key price action along with their stories at our key chart story archives.

  

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Session Start: Tue Aug 08 09:20:55 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:20
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<PapaJon> gm all09:24
<szubaark> gm09:27
<asuni> gm09:28
<NihabaAshi> gm09:29
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)09:31
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 701.70 -> small size
Looking to ADD if this goes my way and picks up momentum.09:32
:(09:33
Oil giving no support...may dump this trade.
<pat255> gm all..09:35
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 699.8 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 699.70 -> Add
<les>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 699.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 09:36
exit stop moved to breakeven ER2 @ 699.8 «« paper »»
Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 699.8 --> 0 «« paper »»
<pat255> long vacation Niha...nice to get away from trading09:37

@office will be in ot...
  
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<NihabaAshi> Yes...I needed a long break...got one more long vacation plan for winter skiing when winter arrives :)
<pat255> vn...yeah i need one too...:)09:38
<NihabaAshi> I'm looking for a WRB to dump a contract.09:39
Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 699.30 --> + 0.4 09:40
Not a WRB but I'm losing my patience.
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 701.50 09:41
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1499.25 09:43
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1282 09:44
morn all
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 697.90 --> + 3.8 09:45
<szubaark> nice Niha
<pat255> good start niha09:46
<eminitrader> very nice start
<NihabaAshi> It's FOMC Announcement day...

If I get more out of this trade...I'll consider it lucky.

If Oil ETFs can make new intraday lows...I should be able to capture another WRB.09:48
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 697.4 «« paper »» 09:50
Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 696.9 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»
Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 698.4 --> - 1 «« paper »» 09:53
<NihabaAshi> :(

EuroFX looks dead in the water right now :(09:54
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1502
<NihabaAshi> Very low volatility.
<eminitrader> looks like the chop range is set until the announcement
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1502 --> - 2.75 09:55

just no followthru on my Short that i was looking for
<NihabaAshi> ER2 is very close to shaking me out of my remainder :(09:57
WRB volatility spike in EuroFX...09:59
Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 699.70 --> + 2 10:00
<pat255> vn
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1503 10:01
<eminitrader>  Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1284 --> + 2 10:02
<pat255> vn emini
<eminitrader> thx pat
<szubaark> Nice Emini10:03
<eminitrader> thx szu
<NihabaAshi> I'm sidelined now because I don't understand what's juicing up the eminis for the past 12 minutes.
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1503 --> 0 10:04

Shorts NQ @ 1503
<pat255> es has been stronger than the rest
<eminitrader> deos it really matter niha ? as long as it moves

Exited ES Long @ 1283.50 --> + 1.5 10:05

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1283.50
<NihabaAshi> True, but I was hoping to reverse my remainder short into a long but I didn't see any reasons to get long.10:06
<eminitrader> k
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1506
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 700.1 «« paper »» 10:07
<eminitrader> i'm just playing the s/r game now...
<szubaark> this will be my last trade..this Price Action is confusing the hack out of me10:11
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 701.00 -> small size 10:12
1 contract only...intuition trade.
<eminitrader> nq at res szu ..trying to break it
<pat255> guys c u all later ty back to work..10:13
<eminitrader> bye
<szubaark> watching ES to hold here or Short is Toast10:14
Covered all Short NQ at 1506 --> - 3
Buys NQ @ 1506
<eminitrader> chart shows upto 1506.50 as res10:15
<jperl> TotalMarket mostly green....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-08-08/JP ERL_011.png
<szubaark> Shorts not working so far for me. Lets go LONG10:16
<eminitrader> :)
<szubaark> FOMC day they could just creep this until the announcment
<NihabaAshi> Odds are high we get one more good WRB and then I'll just sit back and watch until the FOMC Announcement.10:17
<jperl> Had two trades this morning a short when it was mixed and then reversed when it went green
<NihabaAshi> Prefer a WRB in the direction of my trade.
Exited ER2 Long @ 700.10 --> - 0.9
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 700.10
Shorts ER2 @ 700.00 -> Add 10:18
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-08-08/JP ERL_012.png
<NihabaAshi> jperl...are your order reasons manually put in or they inputed via a code ?10:19
<jperl> order reasons just show trade direction automatically10:20

and whether they are scale ins and outs or reversals
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 700.80 --> - 1.5 10:22
<eminitrader>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1283.25 --> + 0.25 10:30

will wait till pm
<les>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 699.7 --> + 0.4 «« paper »» 10:34
<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 699.6010:35
<NihabaAshi> Volatility has been low since 1003am est.10:36
<les>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 699.5 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:38

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 700 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 699.20 -> small size 10:39
Trade error...looking to dump this.10:40
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)10:43
<les>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 699.3 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 10:48
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 699.00 --> + 0.2 10:50

Lucky escape...caught a shallow WRB and almost sold for a loss when an interval came within 1 tick of producing a WRB the opposite direction.10:51

Will keep it one contract trading until the FOMC announcement.10:52

Shorts ER2 @ 698.60 -> small size 11:02

O

O

I'm within the range of an unimportant WRB...11:03

Thus, I'm not looking for much out of this trade.

EuroFX back within the range of that Dark WRB from 0832am est this morning :(11:05
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 698.7 «« paper »» 11:07
<NihabaAshi> The 15min chart shows what kind of range we are in for those trading the Eminis.11:12

Type of range you want to keep your position size small due to the increased risk exposure.
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 698.9 --> + 0.2 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> Hopefully (it should) the FOMC Annoucement will open up the range to something worth putting on some size.11:13
<eminitrader> if anyones bored - its time to discover the holy grail of trading - courtesy elite trader ...now the link11:17
http://www.whymarketsturn.com/
<NihabaAshi> I remember them a long time ago under a different name.11:18
<szubaark> emini No Comment :)
<eminitrader> lol

its hilarious ...predicting mrkt reversals to the minute ...........11:19

just $4997.0011:21
<NihabaAshi> He use to have a Signal Calling chat room on IRC that did horribly.
I remember being in there and hearing him say he was going to start a website called WhyMarketsTurn.11:22
<eminitrader> that he certainly did :)
<NihabaAshi> Someone said shouldn't you wait until your profitable.11:23
He said no.
:)
<eminitrader> lol

he he he

cant stop laughing
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1503 11:24
<NihabaAshi> He was doing only Bonds and Energies at that time...looks like he expanded into everything the U.S. markets has to offer.
<eminitrader> yep ..orjance juice cocoa sugar.... the works
<NihabaAshi> I did learn one thing from him...best to swing trade Bonds instead of trying to day trade them.11:25
<eminitrader> was it a paid room ?
<NihabaAshi> It was free and then it went to fee-based after being free for about 3 weeks.11:26
<eminitrader> k
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 700.10 --> - 1.5 11:27

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 700.10
<eminitrader> and now the punch line -11:28
Warning to Library Readers (those who buy, make copies, make up stupid excuses, try to return, and steal intellectual property). This is not a library. The above guarantee is a conditional guarantee to assure buyers that Why Markets Turn™ works - it is not an unconditional guarantee that will allow you to steal intellectual property.
Do not pretend to buy if you intend to return. Do not buy if you intend to pirate.
The e-book is protected with the latest anti-piracy technologies including watermark tracking It can be remotely disabled and has watermark tracking to track all copies. Any illegal actiivty can and will be tracked and prosecuted until incarceration. If you like the idea of being sold as a slave for a cigarette during your incarceration then go ahead, test my resolve.
<NihabaAshi> I got my first pattern signal of the day.

Because of such...I reversed from a 1 contract into a 3 contract position.

Hopefully, I can hold this going into the FOMC Annoucement.11:29
<szubaark> NQ strong reason i held my Long
<eminitrader> thats it for now ---back to biz
<NihabaAshi> The prior intuition trades wasn't producing what I wanted.
<szubaark> I was all "intution" trades also since its FOMC day and impossible to get good setup.
<eminitrader> niha is ur intuition the feel based based on candlesticks , volume time news or a combination11:30
k
<NihabaAshi> I have a 2 point stop/loss in and a 1 point audio stop alert because I won't be at the monitor the entire time leading into the FOMC Annoucement.11:31
<eminitrader> forgot to add experience
<NihabaAshi> eminitrader...my intuition trades are mainly based upon everything but nothing that's a pattern.11:32
<eminitrader> meaning nothing to do with patterns?11:33
<NihabaAshi> Exactly.
<eminitrader> k
<NihabaAshi> I get some help from price action in Oil, Gold, EuroFX price action based upon how the volatility is reacting.11:34
<szubaark> yeah i can see how u can develop "sixth sense" after watching this market for so ong
ong=long
<eminitrader> but if a pattern set-up occurs after ur entry in the reverse direction ..would u reverse as per the pattern or stick to ur intuition -- mean what do u give more weight to
<NihabaAshi> Other than that...as soon as I get a pattern signal from my trading plan...I'll jump on it even if its an FOMC Annoucement day.11:35
Yet, I'm still risk control today...keeping everything small size.
<eminitrader> k
<szubaark> Niha u have all your patterns memorized in your head and can recognize then within SECONDS?11:36
<NihabaAshi> Especially since returning back from a long vacation...I'm still not completely in tune with the overall market conditions.
<eminitrader> :)
<NihabaAshi> szubaark...YES.

However, I still review a few of them at random each week.

Be back later...taking a long lunch.11:37
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<jperl> Not much action for me this morning....time for lunch...11:48

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-08-08/JP ERL_013.png
  
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<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1503 --> - 3 11:51
Shorts NQ @ 1502.75
Covered all Short NQ at 1502.75 --> 0 11:53
I need a break. Trading like a newbie.
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:55
<subq> jperl not bad12:26
only trade ive made today was an accident12:29
http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/08/0 8/misclick.png
my DOME was up and i accidently clicked it :)12:30
* Fleneer2 is now known as Fleneer12:38
<pat255> hi guys ...log in for a few minutes to c what the fed says..13:02
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)13:04
<pat255> looks like tank coming?13:09
it's most likely a sell the news trade as everyone on the planet is already positioned for that13:13
<eminitrader> :)
<pat255>  bulls will have to expend alot of buying energy to keep it propped?13:14
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi13:25
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Long @ 698.30 --> - 1.8 13:31
Re-Enter Long ER2 @ 698.30
I was just getting ready to tighten up that stop to a 698.50 :(13:34
ER2 probing that candlestick s/r zone :(13:37
<pat255> Niha on what tf?13:38
<NihabaAshi> 5min13:39
<pat255> ty

Niha your setups mainly come from 5 min chart & higher tf?13:40
<NihabaAshi> Today its mainly been the 2min chart.
<pat255> k..13:41
<NihabaAshi> That zone is 698.80 - 697.0013:42
A 697.40 could spook me out of this trade into a reversal.13:43
Exited ER2 Long @ 697.40 --> - 0.9 13:45
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 697.40
I only got a shallow target on this one at 697.00
<pat255> looks like 697 may hold..or a little below it ..13:46
<NihabaAshi> I doubt it can break hard below that s/r zone.
<pat255> L 40 er ...paper

97.4 that is
<aym> Buy er2 @ 697.4 risk 213:48
<NihabaAshi> If ER2 is going to attempt a bounce back upwards...it needs to do it before making any intraday lows because time is running out (FOMC annoucement is nearing).
<pat255> Niha guessed right so far ...13:52
yes ..
<NihabaAshi> I'm still looking for it to counter-thrust back upwards in this price area.13:53

Trying to time a trade reversal from a Short into a Long if a signal appears.
<pat255> prolly may occur near the 2Pm...13:54
<GoodMood> prolly = ?13:55
<pat255> probably...
=prolly
<GoodMood> ty13:56
<NihabaAshi> Time to turn on the Camtasia screen capture recorder :)
Things about to get very interesting.
<pat255> yup...5 mins to go
<NihabaAshi> Tightning up stops.13:58
exit stop lowered ER2 @ 798.80 14:00
Wow...its been 17 straight interest rate hikes....crazy.14:01
I'm still waiting for a signal to reverse into a Long position.14:02
<pat255> yeah but .25 eachtime ...does take time to add up..
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 698.80 --> - 1.4 14:03
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 698.80
<aym> Sell er2 @ 698.814:04
<NihabaAshi> I now have a large size Long position
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1500.50 14:05

being aggressive here
<NihabaAshi> Need a point to be profitable for the day but I'm look for more than that.14:06
<szubaark> they just Dumped NQ..crap14:07

last shake-out before blast off to the upside?
<NihabaAshi> :(14:08
szu...its losing its volatility.
:(
Hope I'm wrong about that.
Still two minutes remaining in the interval...14:09
Time still to pick up steam.
EuroFX losing its steam :(14:10
Same with Oil.14:11
Starting to look like I'm on my own here.
<szubaark> hehe niha
  

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<NihabaAshi> szu...if this rallies today...14:12
I'll be bearish tomorrow.
Too much negative stuff in the market to substain a rally if such were to happen.
<pat255> so far so good Niha ...
<NihabaAshi> A 700.80 gets me my profit target for the day.14:13
<szubaark>  GO NIHA!14:14
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 702.80 --> + 4 14:15
Crazy.
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1505.75 --> + 5.25
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 703.80 --> + 5 14:16
Holding 1 contract.
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<szubaark> whats the news? (I dont even watch TV when trading)
<NihabaAshi> I think (not sure) they left it "unchanged".14:17

Yep...someone just told me...its "unchanged".
<eminitrader> yep
<NihabaAshi> If this rally can substain itself by the close...14:18

I'll go to normal size trading tomorrow and will have a bearish bias for tomorrow's trading session = Normal on Shorts and Small on Long positions14:19
<eminitrader> why bearish niha any particular reason?
<NihabaAshi> Odds in in that direction.14:20
<eminitrader> k
<NihabaAshi> If I'm wrong...I'll making a small amount on my Long positions.

If I'm right...I'll have a big trading day :)

If it sells off today and make new intraday lows...14:21

I'll stay small size tomorrow.

On Longs and Shorts.
<pat255> kty niha ..will keep in mind14:22
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 699.70 --> + 0.9

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 699.70
<asuni> where is now your stop for the holded contract?
seen :-)
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 697.70 -> Add

Shorts ER2 @ 696.30 -> Add 14:23
<pat255> wow ...
<NihabaAshi> Wow...look at EuroFX...crazy.14:24

That's one big Dark WRB.

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 695.00 --> + 1.3

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 692.50 --> + 7.2 14:26

Holding 1 contract and tightning up my stop.

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 699.50

Crazy...I got my reversal signal to exit the Long into a Short @ 701.5014:28

Seconds later I got Short at 699.70 :(

This could make another new intraday low.14:29

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 699.00 14:30

Apparently the market sold off after news hit the big boys it wasn't a unaminous vote...14:31

One of those fed guys wanted to raise rates.

EuroFX fought back nicely and it almost regained the losses in the big Dark WRB.14:36

ER2 is in trouble unless it can counter-thrust back upwards to the 699.40 price level.14:37

Until then...I'm looking to re-add back to me remaining short if I get a signal for such.14:38

Look at the 15min chart and this price action really isn't that impressive...14:40

It pushed a few points above the top range and a few points below the low range.

Covered ER2 Short @ 697.00 --> + 2.7 14:42

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 697.00

My last trade of the day and its just a 1 contract position.

Exited ER2 Long @ 695.50 --> - 1.5 14:45

Got stopped out :(14:46

I would like to see this rally back upwards so that I can put on some size tomorrow.14:47

ER2 low of that range I see on the 15min chart is 693.8014:49

Reason why the sudden reversal back down isn't that impressive overall.14:50
<pat255> Niha u still bearish over all?14:52
dang no guts for me to trade this news...:(
<NihabaAshi> Not unless it makes new intraday lows and stays down there by the close.
<pat255> kty14:53
<NihabaAshi> Just heard the U.S. Dollar needs to go much lower to bring the deficit under control :(14:56

A lower U.S. Dollar means less buying power for my profits :(

If ER2 can continue lower and close at/below 690.0015:19

I'll then be impress with the sell off.

And wishing I had stayed short all the way down :(15:20
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:28
<NihabaAshi> Tomorrow I'll be small size only for my position size management.16:01

The first trading day a FOMC Announcement day that had a steep price decline are usually tough trading days for me.16:02

Thus, tomorrow is not a good day for me to trade some size.

I'll also only be trading via the trading plan and no intuition trades.16:03
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Aug 08 16:23:42 200616:23
  
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