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#FuturesTrades August 1st Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

 

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+26.20 +26.20 +2011.40
$2,620 $2,620 $201,140

Profit Targets Only

771.90 - 769.00

click on image to view actual size

 

Current Performance Record

Today's WRB S/R Zone(s)

Profit/Loss Statement

 

General Chat Room/Log Info: The above points along with profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Also, #FuturesTrades is free to any trader and I am the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com

My main function in #FuturesTrades is to be the moderator and I use the chat room as more eyes on the markets to help prevent missing critical market info that have impact on my trades.

#FuturesTrades is not a signal calling chat room and all users are required to post at least one trade (real money or simulator) per day of use or participate in the market discussions.

  Lurking (not participating) in #FuturesTrades will not allow you to reach your trading goals nor will it answer your questions that you need answered to help with your trading. Therefore, it's to your benefit to participate in #FuturesTrades especially if your a struggling trader or a trader not reaching your profit goals. 

General Strategy Info: Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

  Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, trade signal and seasonal tendencies.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

   
  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Wed Aug 01 09:31:11 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:31
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<Awash> morning all
<werner> gm niha,all
<eminime68> gm Niha09:32
<pat255> gm all
<base> GM all
<PapaJon> jeeze.. strong start09:33
pegged my cpu
hate when that happens
<Bambam-77> like i said they want to close the gap by 9:30
<Awash> .09:37
<intowin> who is biting at the bit to short?
<Bambam-77>  Long ES @ xxxx
<intowin> where did you enter long bam?09:38
<Bambam-77>  Shorts ES @ 12345
<intowin> you just testing script?
<Bambam-77> yes09:39
<intowin> it does the math for you when you exit a trade09:41
<pdays> Bam..there is a test mode
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 779.60 -> small size

2 contracts only...may add is volatility picks up.09:42
<pdays> right click /setup/default trading
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 778.60 -> Add

intuition trade (no pattern signal)

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 776.50 --> + 2.1 09:44
<intowin> nice start nih
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 775.30 --> + 4.3 09:45
<base> Very nice.
  
WRB Analysis
  
<PapaJon> nice intuition trade niha :)
<doublejay> very nice
<Pepe> id liketohave intuition like that :) nih09:46
<jperl> Done for today....have to leave.....trades here....09:51
<NihabaAshi> We got some key market events at 10am est...should start producing volatility again here soon.
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-08-01/JP ERL_018.jpg
<PapaJon> nice goin jp
<jperl> tx.....a real jacke rabbit morning09:52
jack
<PapaJon> no kiddin
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 772.50 --> + 7.1
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 772.50
<base> Oh my god. :)09:53
<szubaark>  Go Niha!
<ItalianSharp> wow niha...you are really exploiting this volatility arent you?
<base> Have you reached your daily goal in the first trade yet? :)
<NihabaAshi> I should be exploiting it more...

Will explain after I close this Long position.09:54

That's a 2 contract Long.
<Brutus> 1000/1400 Jun Pending Home Sales Index -3.5%09:55
1000/1400 Jul ISM Mfg Index
Mfg Business Index 55
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 773.00 --> + 0.5 09:56

My inability to see that "big clues" price has a good chance to retrace against me is a good example in that last trade.

Here's the problem that I mention before in which I'll explain now.09:57

I do a "a lot" of intermarket analysis and its key to my "intuition trades".

FutureSource (my primary data vendor) was purchase by eSignal.09:58

Many months ago.

This month...eSignal decided to change the symbols to these weird symbols.09:59

I'm still in the process of finding the new symbols for many of the key markets I monitor :(

Some of these symbols eSignal uses is just "weird".

For example...while I was without my DAX quotes (Old symbol DAXU07)...10:00

The tech guy didn't even know the new symbol :(10:01

Took me an entire week to find out (finally got an answer today)...new symbol is AX+U7-DT10:02

:(
<Awash> niha, i just figured it out too
<NihabaAshi> That new symbol for the DAX makes a lot of sense :)

Weird
<base> lol
<Awash> save this link on the eSignal Symbology Guide10:03

http://futuresource.quote.com/transition /
<NihabaAshi> The problem with that is that eSignal has many of the Old symbols incorrect.
Thus, when you type in the actual Old symbol FutureSource used...10:04
<Bambam-77>  Shorts ES @ 1461.25 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> You get back nothing (no info) for the new symbol
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<NihabaAshi> Simply, those key markets I follow gives me big clues to dump my position to lock in profits.10:05
Lately I've been giving back a lot of profits on profitable trades because I'm essentially trading with "one eye closed" :(
<PapaJon> niha try here... http://www.dbc.com/blq/dbc_trading/defau lt.asp?source=central10:06
<Bambam-77>  Covered all ES Short @ 1459 --> + 2.25 «« paper »»
<PapaJon> dont use the "lookup".. just search it out
<Bambam-77> choppy as heck10:07
<AusTrader000> this market is going nuts this morning.!!
<Bambam-77> 62 pos trgt
<Brutus> Technical Moving Averages10:09

50-Day 200-Day

S&P 1519 1448
<NihabaAshi> Thanks Papa...I have that.10:13
eSignal just has updated some of the symbols over at FutureSource.10:14
<intowin>  short ES @ 1467
<NihabaAshi> Thus, the Old and the new is not working for some stuff...supposibly they will be completed sometime this month :(
<Awash>  Long ES @ 1466.50 10:17
<Brutus> 1030/1430 Jul 27 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories10:18
Crude Oil Stocks (in barrels) -1.1M
Gasoline Stocks (in barrels) +800K
Distillate Stocks (in barrels) +1.5M
<PapaJon> niha.. AX u7-dt

the Dax10:19

anything on eurex has to end with the -dt
<NihabaAshi> Papa...I got the DAX :)10:20
<PapaJon> ah.. ok.. sorry
<NihabaAshi> Those are the easy ones...10:21
<Awash>  Exited all ES Long @ 1466.75 --> + 0.25
<NihabaAshi> The difficult ones that I need is like the "Dow Jones CBOT Treasury"10:22
<eminime68> Anyone knows that DAX symbol on Tradestation?10:23
<PapaJon> niha.. here is a list of cbot treasurey contracts10:24
http://www.dbc.com/blq/dbc_trading/defau lt.asp?source=central10:25
about 3/4 the way down the lists
<NihabaAshi> Papa...its an index
<PapaJon> ah
thought you were looking for the futures10:26
<NihabaAshi> I have about 8 other Index that dissappeared in the symbol change over :(
<intowin>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1460.75 --> + 6.25 10:28
<NihabaAshi> Does anyone know the Phi Gold/Silver Index symbol at eSignal ???10:29

Meant the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index
<ItalianSharp> $XAU10:30
i think that's the index you are talkin about
<NihabaAshi> Yeah...that's in their database but no longer in FutureSource database :(10:31
<ItalianSharp> that sucks
<NihabaAshi> FutureSource tech guy saids he never heard of it...

I told him I've been getting it from them for about 6 years :(
<ItalianSharp> why did they change symbol format for future source and left symbols the same for esignal?
that is strange to say the least10:32
<NihabaAshi> Yep

The killer is this...I lost access to my Advance Decline Lines at FutureSource and the eSignal symbols for AD Lines do not work at FutureSource.10:35

The AD Lines has help with most of my profits and I don't have access to them as of today :(

The sad part is my backup data vendor is Qcharts...10:36

eSignal purchased them too.10:37

Soon they will change their symbols too :(
<intowin>  Covered all ES Short @ 1457 --> + 10
<PapaJon> nice trade itw10:41
<Awash> nice intw
<szubaark> nice into
<intowin> ty.. Got my wallet back last night also. Shorted er2 after hours for +6
was a good lessoned learned yesterday. obey stops10:42
lets see what it does with this suupport10:48
<Awash> opening low held thus far10:52
<NihabaAshi> That's B.S. what just happen...no fill at 771.50 :(10:58
<Brutus> 08/01/2007 10:56 DJ OIL FUTURES: Crude Hits Record On EIA Data, Then Pares Gain10:59
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 769.40 -> small size 11:00
Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 769.00 --> + 0.4 11:01
Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 769.30 --> + 0.1 11:02
Long ER2 @ 770.20 -> small size
I don't have a lot of support for the Long11:03
preparing to reverse position11:04
raising stop11:05
Exited all ER2 Long @ 771.30 --> + 1.1 11:08
<intowin>  Long ES @ 1453 11:09
<NihabaAshi> Got lost in the price action on that one...had to dump it.
<intowin>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1456 --> + 3 11:11
<Pepe> Intowin...good trade11:12
<Awash>  Long ES @ 1456
<intowin> they are all over the board today lol11:13
<Bambam-77> protect longs11:15

1455 stp11:16

1461.50 pos trgt11:17

trgt hit11:19
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 776.20 -> small size 11:21
2 contracts only and will take a break from trading after I close this trade.
<Bambam-77> ranges lager today so stops larger or get whipsawed11:22

ranges larger
<intowin> my internet keeps dropping : (11:24
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 774.10 --> + 2.1

Going to slow it down and do some more chart symbol updates on my computer workstations (I found 3 more key market index I use) and I'm going to lunch.11:28

Be back later...
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch
<intowin>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1455 --> + 2 11:30

wanted another 10pter but protecting profits today
<Awash> good job intowin
<szubaark> nice intowin11:31
<intowin> thanks you still in awash? had to reboot
seems like they want one more push to the upside then hammer down in the afternoon session11:32
<Awash> still Long intowin11:33
<Brutus> ES price is rising, big swings on such little volume11:34
<Awash>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1458.50 --> + 2.5 11:41

Exited all ES Long @ 1456.25 --> + 0.25 11:51
<intowin> somehow it knows when we dump awash11:55
<Awash>  Long ES @ 1463 11:58

i hate that i exited earlier

that sucked
<intowin> you and me both that was the +10 I knew I could get11:59
<Awash> almost two million contracts traded just in the morning session12:01
<intowin>  short ES @ 780 12:03
er2
just for a scalp
Covered all ES Short @ 778.20 --> + 1.8 12:05
my command to change to er2 is not working for some reason
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:07
* Awash is now known as Awash_afk12:14
<Awash_afk>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1468 --> + 5 12:20
* Awash_afk is now known as Awash
<Pepe> Exit lunch...and Lets go trade13:01
<Bambam-77>  Long ES @ 12456 «« paper »» 13:05
looking for a long here1459.25 break13:07
<intowin> you long bam?13:10

waiting for cat bounce to short. what r u guys seeing?13:31
<Bambam-77> 1459 pos trgt13:32
<Brutus> I think this afternoon is going to be the start of an extended swing up leg. If it does get going we will have a good gap up in the morning13:34
<Pepe> Bambam are you still long?13:35
Now it will be short :)
<Bambam-77> i want 5913:36

or stp
<Pepe> :)
<Bambam-77> 1456
<Pepe> yes
I have PUT otion. I want ES 1400 :)13:37
<Bambam-77> still long they tried to get my last lot13:40
<Pepe> 1460 ES13:41
<Bambam-77> could go to 61.5

anyone here use keltner channels13:42
<Pepe> what is keltner channels?
<Bambam-77> that answers my question
<Pepe> :)13:43
<Bambam-77> what platform you trading on pepe13:44

for charts
<Pepe> Interactive trader TWS platform13:47
but I use Genesis
Genesis trade navigator
<Bambam-77> for charts

Long ES @ xxx «« paper »» 13:49
<Pepe> For chart I have Genesis13:50
<Bambam-77> does it have keltner channels
<Pepe> I will see
yes you have right, In genesis there are any keltner channels, keltner Lower band and keltner Upper band and MovingAvg13:52
<Bambam-77> great13:54

i use 3 keltner channels
<Pepe> as machanic system?14:01
mechanic system?
or discresenery?14:02
* NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi14:03
<werner> gn all14:11
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:13
<Pepe> gn werner14:15
short NQ @ 193814:16
How I can write red text or blue text?14:18
<Brutus>  Long ES @ 1454.25 «« paper »» 14:19

exit stop set ES @ 1451.25 «« paper »»

exit stop set ES @ 1452.5 «« paper »» 14:25
<Pepe> Exited all NQ Short @ 1939 --> - 1.0014:29
time stop14:30
market are going straight14:31
no action
:(
<Brutus>  exit stop set ES @ 1454.25 «« paper »» 14:33

Exited ES Long @ 1554.25 --> + 100 «« paper »» 14:37

yeah -/

1454.25

Exited ES Long @ 1454.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:38
<NihabaAshi> Looks like the retail traders are playing the past 1 hour range.14:43
As soon as a say that...ER2 breaks below the support of that range :)14:44
Shorts ER2 @ 771.40 -> small size
1 only because thish thing can bounce back up very easily.
Covered ER2 Short @ 771.90 --> - 0.5 14:46
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 771.90
At least the volatility has returned.14:47
<Pepe> what formation?
<NihabaAshi> No formation14:48
<Pepe> pattern?
<NihabaAshi> None
<Pepe> or intuition?
<NihabaAshi> Yep :)
Just jumping on to the direction price and volatility is moving...14:49
<Pepe> :)
<NihabaAshi> Then I try to hold one to the bronco.
one = on
<Pepe> I like your intuition. :)
<NihabaAshi> It took many years to develop.14:50
<szubaark> Patterns get exploited real fast in this market :))
<NihabaAshi> In the beginning...intuition trading was a consistent loser for me.
<Pepe> Nihaba how I can learn it?14:51
<NihabaAshi> Watching the charts for many years is one thing.
Trading the same trading instrument for many years is another thing.
Knowing your psychological weakness/strength when trading.14:52
<Pepe> And only price action? (No indicators)
<NihabaAshi> Keep losees small and try to let winners run further than your losses.
<intowin>  Long ES @ 771.80 14:53
<NihabaAshi> Yeah...price action only.
<Pepe> How many years watchng chart?
<intowin>  Exited all ES Long @ 771 --> - 0.8
<NihabaAshi> If your using indicators...tough to prevent them from having impact on your trade decisions.14:54

I'm still on this bronco :)

Exited ER2 Long @ 771.90 --> 0 14:57

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 771.90

Will correct when I exit...
<Pepe> How long I learn your STR manual for understanding all your method in this manual?
<NihabaAshi> Pepe...your talking in the wrong room about that stuff.
<Pepe> ok
<NihabaAshi> Posting corrections...14:58

Long ER2 @ 771.90 -> small size 14:59

Exited ER2 Long @ 770.90 --> - 1

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 770.90
* Awash_afk is now known as Awash15:00
<Awash> .
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 767.90 --> + 3 15:07
Volatility spike but I wasn't fast enough to get Long around 768.0015:08
ER2 volatility dropping fast...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon.15:25
Shorts ER2 @ 769.00 -> small size 15:26
<Pepe> intuition?
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 770.90 --> - 1.9 15:28
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 770.90
Long ER2 @ 771.90 -> Add
Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 773.50 --> + 1.6 15:32
Good bronco on this one.15:33
It almost shook me off a few times :)
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 771.50 --> + 0.6 15:37
Got shook.15:38
Target area was 775.00
:(15:40
Did anyone just get a data burst in ER2 when it jump over 775.00 ???15:44
It jumped 5 ticks on my system via going from 774.80 to 775.30 from one tick to the next tick :(15:45
I'm suspecting I have data problems.
<Pepe> I have no data problem...now.15:46
<Brutus> It move very fast Niha some 500 contract bursts15:48
<NihabaAshi> Thanks...I have 3 contracts at 774.80 and then the next tick shows 2 contracts at 775.30

:(15:49

I know there's something big in between.

My system just doesn't have it.

Long ER2 @ 772.80 -> small size 15:50

Long ER2 @ 776.80 -> small size 15:51

corrected

This is getting absurd.15:54

Exited all ER2 Long @ 780.30 --> + 3.5 15:55

This is NOT TRADING...

It's an Arm Robbery!!!15:56

Feels like I'm in a bank telling the teller give me all your money :)
<intowin> holy cow my internet went out and what is this?15:57
<NihabaAshi> Gotta love this volatility...its better than March.
<intowin> did you stay in that long Niha? 770 area?15:58
<NihabaAshi> I got shook but I did jump back on that bronco.15:59
<intowin> nice
cant believe I watched all day and it rained which took my sattelite out at the worse time. I was long at 770 but covered due to no sattelite16:00
this might be one to hold overnight..
<NihabaAshi> This reminds me of the Eminis many years ago soon after their birth.16:05

I remember when ES oscillated in a 15 point range and we called it a range day back then :)
<intowin> unreal 30 pts in es in 30 minutes. I got some of it and will hold one contract overnight... cu guys tommorow..16:07
<NihabaAshi> Anybody notice these big Volatility/Volume burst in one interval over the past trading days...its consistent.16:08

It's occurring towards the end of the trading day is what I meant.

Today it happen between 4:00pm - 4:03pm est for the stock closing.16:09

Same as prior trading days...

A lot of dollars is moving around 4pm est.

It's looks like an 1.3x increase in the volume around 4pm est16:11
<Brutus>  ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========16:12
DJIA up 156.31 points to 13368.30
NASDAQ up 4.06 points to 2550.33
S&P 500 up 9.29 points to 1464.56
10-year T-note down 12/32 at 97 26/32 yield 4.772
NYMEX Spot Crude down $1.68 at $76.53/bbl at close
Dollar/Euro down 0.0014 at 4.1669
US JULY AUTO SALES SLIDE; TOYOTA OUTSELLS FORD16:13
Ford Motor posts a 19.1% plunge in July U.S. auto sales to 195,245 cars and trucks, with the auto maker slashing its rental car sales in half. Analysts were looking for a decline of about 10%. Toyota's July sales fall 7.3%, but the company manages to gain ground on Ford in the battle for the title of No. 2 U.S. auto maker. General Motors July U.S. light-vehicle sales fall 22.3% to 315,870. Chrysler sales slide 8% to 13
US HOME-SALES GAUGE RISES, MANUFACTURING SLOWS Index for pending sales of existing homes rises by 5.0% to 102.4 in June from May's 97.5, its first gain since February, likely helped by warm weather in May and June. ISM's July manufacturing index slips more than expected to 53.8, from 56.0 in June.
Friday, August 3, 2007 Exp Prev
ET/GMT
0830/1230 Jul Non-farm Payrolls +132K
0830/1230 Jul Unemployment Rate 4.5%
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:16
<NihabaAshi> VIX 60 min chart put in a big down interval for its last interval.16:20
If nothing changes in the general market overnight info nor in the pre-market price action before 0930am est...
I'll be bearish out of the gate tomorrow.16:21
Thus, my bias will only manage my position size (large to normal on Shorts and small on Longs).
* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Aug 01 17:53:59 200717:53
  
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CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

 questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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