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#FuturesTrades July 19th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+7.00	+144.40	+1832.90
$700	$14,440	$183,290

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Jul 20th Fri Secondary WRB S/R Zone(s)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Chat Room/Log Info: The above points along with profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Also, #FuturesTrades is free to any trader and I am the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com

My main function in #FuturesTrades is to be the moderator and I use the chat room as more eyes on the markets to help prevent missing critical market info that have impact on my trades.

#FuturesTrades is not a signal calling chat room and all users are required to post at least one trade (real money or simulator) per day of use or participate in the market discussions.

Lurking (not participating) in #FuturesTrades will not allow you to reach your trading goals nor will it answer your questions that you need answered to help with your trading. Therefore, it's to your benefit to participate in #FuturesTrades especially if your a struggling trader or a trader not reaching your profit goals.

General Strategy Info: Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, trade signal and seasonal tendencies.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Thu Jul 19 09:32:46 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:32

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<NihabaAshi> FED Chairman Bernanke is speaking at 0930am est. 09:34

<PapaJon> yay... another bernie day... ugh 09:35

<eminitrader> and dont forget the fed min @ 2 pm

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 858.20 -> small size 09:36

<pat255> yes ..many reports today

<NihabaAshi> Should have been in at 858.00

<RussellDaytrade> was busy selling my clwr shares, a little early, it appears 09:38

<eminitrader> looks like a run away gap 09:40

<pat255> yeah not going to fill ..

<NihabaAshi> Volatility already declining.

<RussellDaytrade> I'm shorting on scales

<NihabaAshi> Expecting a volatility spike here soon.

<pat255> cant belive uesterday it was 42 ...es

<eminitrader> shows the strenghr of the mrkt 09:41

<pat255> yes

rd u mainly trade er?

<davetrade> gm all 09:42

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 857.50 --> - 0.7 09:43

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 857.50

<eminitrader> yes szu...when i hit my weekly target in one day i dont trade the following day...does not happen often but when it doe..i take the next day off 09:44

oops..was meant pm

<RussellDaytrade> yes Pat, although I am of late also re-tracking the es and nq, and incoporating them into my er models, in anticiaption of trading them some also...I want to check how ell my projections are doing on them, though have yet to trade them.

<pat255> ty 09:46

<RussellDaytrade> clwr now below my avg sells, :)

<pat255> vn

<RussellDaytrade> shorts are now pftable 09:47

<eminitrader> same here rd...but my projections on the er2 is not as precise as the es...

prolly need to fine tune my parameters for the er2..

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 856.30 --> + 1.2 09:48

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Trading Strategies -> These strategies, from entry to exit, will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<eminitrader> thought of trading the er2 ...but after following the pa...i prefer the es or rather my method prefers the ES :))

<Awash> :)

good morning all

<RussellDaytrade> yes, I did that a couple weeks ago, tweaked my pct algorthims...

<eminitrader> and given the recent volatility in the ES ...dont see the need to cahnge to er2 09:49

<RussellDaytrade> yes, your are dialed in on the es...I find the er, very predictable, and to my liking because of such

<eminitrader> hey RD when u have the time dont mind a little preview on the tweeking bbetween rs and er2 09:50

rs=es

<RussellDaytrade> in my case, I found that my earlier work, in January if you may recall, was too conservative, in that es and nq were always exceeding my target projections, so i adjusted them slightly up... 09:52

<les> Long ER2 @ 856.8 09:53

<RussellDaytrade> for up moves and down moves, not much, just a little, and a porion of the slight adjustments was accomplished thru 'rounding up' or rounding down functions, which has the added benifit of also presenting my results in .25 increments 09:54

<eminitrader> k..

<Brutus> 1000/1400 Jun Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators 09:55

+0.3%

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 856.20 -> small size 09:57

<les> Exited ER2 Long @ 856 --> - 0.8 09:58

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 856

<RussellDaytrade> I have possible down targets large structures as low as 851.6 to 849.95 areas

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 856.50 --> + 0.3 10:00

Caught an exit within my key s/r zone but I prefer the exit to be a few ticks higher. 10:01

<davetrade> Shorts ES @ 1562.25

<NihabaAshi> So far the Bernanke speech has neutralized the 10am Leading Indicators economic report. 10:04

:(

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 856.8 --> - 0.8 «« paper »» 10:06

<davetrade> Covered ES Short @ 1563.75 --> - 1.5 10:11

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1563.75

should be 1562.75 10:12

Exited all ES Long @ 1563.75 --> 0

Long ES @ 1562.75

<Awash> ES in tight range

<davetrade> Exited all ES Long @ 1562.25 --> - 0.5 10:13

enogh for me for today

<pdays> Long ER2 @ 856.6 10:17

Exited all ER2 Long @ 857.0 --> + 0.4 10:18

<eminitrader> lloks like new highs

es i refer to

<pat255> so far it is tight range .. 10:19

<eminitrader> yep as long as 1559.50 holds..

<NihabaAshi> Yep and I'm going to stay on the sidelines (no more trades) until we break out of that tight trading range.

<RussellDaytrade> it feels like a 'hang'em high' kinda day...oh, here it comes 10:21

<eminitrader> decision area es---new highs or gap fill 10:22

<RussellDaytrade> and there it went! 10:23

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:24

<eminitrader> as usual - noise - till it decides which may to go :) 10:26

be back 10:28

* Retrieving #futurestrades modes... 10:30

<Awash> Long ES @ 1562

<jperl> ER2 sitting near its VWAP 857.00

I got "shook out" of all my trades this morning... 10:32

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-19/JP ERL_0116.jpg

<NihabaAshi> I just made this room "visible" (no longer private) on the list of rooms open on the Othernet server to attract more members.

As soon as the first "spammer" shows up...

I'll make it private again.

<pat255> lol this am there was a guy hawking porn sites .. 10:33

<jperl> that won't take long

The barbarians are out there in large numbers

<NihabaAshi> pat255...in here?

<pat255> no in E room ..

<NihabaAshi> E ?

<pat255> enthios room

<NihabaAshi> Ok.

<pat255> ben still on? 10:34

<NihabaAshi> Must be because we're still trading in that range he's established. 10:35

<pat255> k ...looks like ..

<NihabaAshi> Usually the FED Chairman is a market mover. 10:38

It's unusual to see this type of range bound price action while he's speaking.

<eminitrader> looks like a higher probability of gap fill now

if low does not hold 10:39

<pat255> y em ...mkt could not push it up .. 10:40

<eminitrader> yep...usually the first push or second one from the support area shld have created enough mometum ...but looks like it failing 10:41

actually this is the second push ...shld see if it will create the momemtum 10:42

<RussellDaytrade> feels like a long hangtime day, where the mkt will take the greater part of the day to come in, and then do so with a vengeance / swiftly, relative to all the time it may spend trading in a high tight range...

<pat255> 10:35Benanke cites $50-$100 bln est. of loss in subprime products

yes rd ..u took the best entry ..just wait now 10:43

<RussellDaytrade> gonna wait it out with small size short, incase it does the opposite and legs up,

<eminitrader> probability increasing of brek down in ES 10:45

59.50 last line of supp

<RussellDaytrade> the bears need to get organized on it, for a concerted push 10:46

<eminitrader> there we go..

<Awash> Exited all ES Long @ 1560 --> - 2

<eminitrader> nice call RD :))

<RussellDaytrade> er and nq not giving back much / holding 10:47

kind of a slow motion erotion 10:48

<eminitrader> right NQ still holding but shld brek soon

<RussellDaytrade> erosion

<eminitrader> prolly see a bounce here..nq holding supp area 2063.50 10:54

<RussellDaytrade> er is just about ready to cave, it wants to 10:55

<eminitrader> same with NQ

...but making the shorts sweat

<pat255> y

<RussellDaytrade> closing short, hopefully slowly

<jperl> ER2 holding up at the 1 month 1st StdDev 855.26 10:57

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 855.50 -> small size 10:58

<RussellDaytrade> closed half, fkit

:)

breaktime 10:59

<jperl> I've tried 3 times to take a long here....

only to get shook out with 1 tick profits

<pat255> jper how tight a stop u keep? 11:00

<jperl> today....very tight.....lots of conflicting data out there

<pat255> kty

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 856.70 approaching PVP 856.60 11:02

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 856.50 --> + 1 11:03

<jperl> good trade

good exit 11:04

<NihabaAshi> Caught the same s/r zone profit target area as my prior Long but this time I had a better entry.

<Awash> Long ES @ 1561.25 11:19

<jperl> Her is a 60 minute chart of ER2 showing the hold up at the 855.39 std deviation level... 11:31

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-19/JP ERL_0117.jpg

with the VWAP @ 847.16 above the PVP @ 844.70.... 11:33

expectation is for price to move higher

It's done it 3 times in the last hour 11:34

taking bounces off that 1st std dev 11:35

problem is there is lots of resistance above... 11:36

starting with the open price at 856.50 11:37

todays VWAP and PVP at 856.60

<RussellDaytrade> one of the things I like best about that chart representation, and you have shown it before a while back, is how consistently er gets rejected at the 2nd SD above vwap, almost reliably, one of my favorite character traits and attributes 11:38

JP, you think that 2nd SD at near 864 will reamin realtively constant at 864ish, if price does happen to drift up there? 11:40

<pat255> biab.. 11:50

phili fed in 5min? 11:56

<asuni> y pat 11:57

<RussellDaytrade> feels like a friday already

<jperl> RD...864.34 is the 2nd SD of the 2 week VWAP.... 11:58

don't expect that to change much

<RussellDaytrade> ok JP, thanks for posting that chart, it recalled to mind how well and how much I like that 2nd SD level for an expected possible upper tier threshold 11:59

<pat255> k guys back to office ...ty all 12:20

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:27

<Brutus> 07/19/2007 12:30 *DJ Moskow: Expects Inflation To Moderate, Growth To Continue 12:31

<RussellDaytrade> if the larger down structure does not reassert itself, (and is over for now, as I suspect), and, if a new up-structure begins, (which I believe has), I have 3 possible targets that center upon the 862 areas, (one slightly below, 861.5, and two above, 852.5 or so), and another suggesting 859.8. all in all...( er just fulfilled a nearby t at 856.8) I see those upper levels as very possible on a fedminutes reaction

if that is indeed the case, my days pft's will be lost, and will infact become losses, and I will then add to my shorts at higher prices, while at the same time being cognizant that those levels will represent a 'B/O', which may in fact feed on itself, to a new higher level, so, keeping adds and total trade size(s) small, overall, and saving the bigger fire-power for a 'just-in-case' scenario. 12:40

in summary, I am going out to the woods to get lost, so I can then find my way back home. 12:42

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 857.00 -> large size 12:57

6 only 12:58

No follow through to the downside and volatility is dropping fast :( 12:59

<RussellDaytrade> damn, just discovered a trade error, wsa long in the S/O acct, made money purely accidentally, over-covered a short I guess 13:00

<NihabaAshi> Feels like I'm the only one short :( 13:02

<Jul55> I was with you but got out after 3 ticks 13:03

<NihabaAshi> I'm losing my patience on this trade not surprising with the low volatility today.

Will keep my position size small around 1 - 2 contracts for the remainder of the trading day :( 13:04

Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 856.30 --> + 0.7 13:06

<ItalianSharp> NQ preventing eminis from being crashed so far 13:08

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 856.70 --> + 0.3 13:10

<RussellDaytrade> balancepoint er just a moment ago 13:17

in consideration of that hangtime day / fedannouncement price hold-up, I expect price will continue to just drift-along...it's just fun to note when price comes to rest at these balancepoints 13:19

<ItalianSharp> nasdaq with a mind of its own today...new highs while other eminis are rangebound 13:49

<intowin> Long ES @ 1562.50 13:50

<RussellDaytrade> low volume selling, a yawner fer sure thus far 14:02

lowest volatility minutes report I have noted 14:03

them bears better find something bad fast to latch onto and exploit, opportunity is slipping 14:05

man, time is moving slow today

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 14:09

<intowin> wow stepped away to pay the mower repair man and missed a move.. stop hit at -1.5pts 14:13

Exited all ES Long @ 1561.00 --> - 1.5

short ES @ 1559 14:16

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:30

<intowin> Covered all ES Short @ 1559 --> 0 14:42

looks up 14:43

Long ES @ 1559.25

<ItalianSharp> with all the reports on the economic agenda any intelligent person would have expected a decent volatility day today...wrong! 14:53

<jperl> what do YOU mean by volatility 14:54

<ItalianSharp> i mean being decent swings like yesterday...today it's been crappy, at least for YM

lots of ups and downs in narrow ranges...tough to hold onto winners for more than 6-7 ticks 14:55

<jperl> Well for ER2 its been swinging back and forth between 2 standard deviations since 1 PM EST

<ItalianSharp> that usually spells chop, doesnt it 14:56

<jperl> Well 1 stddev is 7 ticks today

<RussellDaytrade> seems like we have flown right past the 'drop-zone', and into the next county! will be surprised, but happy, if it drops into the close...seems less and less likley to do that 14:57

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<ItalianSharp> it would take NQ to make new lows for markets to start trending a little bit...from where it's at right now NQ is likely to make new highs 14:58

<Fleneer> they try hard to close DOW 14K so push is up still. 14:59

<ItalianSharp> looking at the way volume dropped since the report...my guess is that the big boys are starting to call it quits 15:01

<RussellDaytrade> launchpoint...wow, launched faster then I can type! 15:09

<intowin> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1562.75 --> + 3.5

<Awash> nice in2win 15:11

<intowin> thanks

<RussellDaytrade> has yet to hit an acceleration phase, may be good for a little more up if it does, perhaps they tickle and tease 860 er...still short small, pft's eroded, but have some green 15:13

<Awash> Exited all ES Long @ 1561.50 --> + 0.25 15:21

<jperl> done for the day.....trades here... 15:22

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-19/JP ERL_0118.jpg

traded the oscillations about the VWAP in the afternoon 15:23

VWAP ~= POC ~= 856.40

<RussellDaytrade> you know, I generally remain positively slanted towards price action, and find a lot to like about each days price action in the er...that said, I can only define todays pa as downright ugly...

<Awash> done for today 15:24

taking off, good night all

<jperl> 1 stddev was 7 ticks....so that was my entry and exit points

<RussellDaytrade> likely a waypoint / high plateau to higher prices, but ugly all teh same

<intowin> Exited all ES Long @ 1562.75 --> + 3.5 15:52

<RussellDaytrade> about @#$%^&* time 16:00

<Brutus> 07/19/2007 16:01 *DJ Google 2Q EPS $2.93 Vs EPS $2.33 >GOOG 16:01

<RussellDaytrade> eh, another short-lived drop, no big deal, what else is new today, just keep waiting htem out 16:02

and it drops! too good a report, apparently...if it was bad, would it've gone up! crazy., but I like it 16:03

priced in...headfake leading into report 16:04

likley a buy for a slow drift back to nh's on goog 16:05

okay, shorts almost back to dys hipoint of earlier, all's well that ends well 16:07

nevermind they made me parachute into the adjacent state, well beyond my targeted dropzone...I guess the walk back will do me good. :) 16:08

<Brutus> 07/19/2007 16:10 *DJ Microsoft 4Q EPS 31c Vs EPS 28c >MSFT 16:11

07/19/2007 16:10 *DJ Microsoft 4Q Rev $13.37B Vs $11.80B, +13% >MSFT

<RussellDaytrade> if / when goog ever comes out with a bad report...down 100 plus in an instant...stay tuned, may be q's - to - years away..thgat'll be a fun day 16:12

come on boys, close 'em at the lows, eh, close enuf 16:15

ndx still hasn't setted 15 minutes after the close, somebody's still tradeing it 'after' the close, the very thing they got spanked for a few years ago, smae stuff, different year 16:17

man, was about to say it was a good week, it's still only Thursday, amazing.

ndx still hasnt settled 16:18

yes, today was a very good week 16:19

and about as long

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:23

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 16:24

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:36

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Jul 19 17:42:56 2007 17:42

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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

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CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

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