June 27th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log
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Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +20.20 +0.0000 $2,020.00 $0.00 It's all about Interest Rates Again
Today was a key trading day due to the fact that several key WRBs that had gone unfilled...had been filled by the strong downtrend.
These types of WRBs (strongest types) are called WRB Hidden GAPs and they represent excellent insight into the change in supply/demand, key s/r zones that exploits price action from entry to exit.
What caused the market to sell off today?
It's all about Thursday's interest rate decision by the Fed (FOMC announcement) even though most traders expected trading this week to be mellow in comparison to what Thursday trading session may reveal.
Simply, most traders was caught off guard today including myself with the fact I had a few trade management errors to reflect that I wasn't prepared to trade until late in the trading day.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of June...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and you can view the charts associated with the key price action along with their stories at our key chart story archives.
Session Start: Tue Jun 27 09:27:25 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now talking in #futurestrades 09:27 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <les> Long ER2 @ 705.7 «« paper »» 09:30 Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 706.2 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 09:31 Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 705.7 --> 0 «« paper »» 2 <NihabaAshi> #FuturesTrades Purpose -> No gurus here, no signal calling by a head trader and no intentions to educate. This room is being used as a realtime trade journal of trades (real money or simulator) and discussions to add additional info to your brokerage statements. Do not mimic (shadow) the trades by others without their consent as stated at http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm 09:32 Long ER2 @ 706.40 -> small size 09:34 <les> Long ER2 @ 706.6 «« paper »» <szubaark> Shorts YM @ 11131 <les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 705.6 --> - 1 «« paper »» 09:35 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 705.80 -> Add At 3 contracts now. Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 706.30 --> + 0.5 09:42 <szubaark> exit stop set YM @ 11138 will Reverse Long if Stop gets hit <NihabaAshi> :( Looks like I got shook out too early on that ADD :( Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 707.20 --> + 0.8 09:43 <les> Long ER2 @ 707.4 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 707.50 --> + 1.1 09:44 <szubaark> Covered all YM Short @ 11117 --> + 14 09:50 <les> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 707.5 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 10:00 <jperl> U.S. JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ABOVE CONSENSUS 103.1 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 707.60 -> small size 10:01 <les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 707.6 --> + 0.2 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> 1 contract only 10:02 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 707.50 10:03 May get lucky and see this day trade convert into a "position trade"... <szubaark> Nice entry Niha Sponsor: As traders we must treat our trading like a business if we are to succeed as traders and as a business. Therefore, waiting till the last few weeks March to prepare for April's taxes is not good for your trading and could put extra stress on your trading during tax month or the months that follow if your one of those traders that filed an extension.. Therefore, its best to be on top of your taxes throughout the year and Traders Accounting is a great resource for such especially if you want to prevent penalties or an audit several years from now.
<NihabaAshi> Allowing me to watch a World Cup soccer match at 1030am est. 10:04 szu...I almost caught a 708.00 price entry but I was too hesitant as it bounced around that level :( <szubaark> Niha is that Inverted Dark Hammer Pattern that just formed on 5min ER? 10:05 <NihabaAshi> No...I don't have one...could be a difference in data providers if you have one. <jperl> ER2 VWAP 706.70 10:06 <NihabaAshi> szu...YM had a Dark Inverted Hammer Line on the 2min chart although it wasn't a valid pattern signal. 10:07 <szubaark> ER is Invalid also i think, the lower shadow is Greater then the dark body 10:08 <NihabaAshi> I'm getting a lot of help from Oil and is the reason why I decided to take a chance an convert this day trade into a position trade. 10:10 <szubaark> Niha this is what i saw.. not valid Inverted Dark Hammer pattern? http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display. php?p=40172&u=szubaark&a=szubaark&id=794 10:14 <NihabaAshi> Yep...that's not a valid Dark Inverted Hammer pattern. 10:15 Oil fighting back :( <szubaark> ok..thnaks <NihabaAshi> I'm calling it quits around 1045am est to get ready for another World Cup soccer match. 10:21 <les> Long ER2 @ 704.9 «« paper »» 10:22 <PapaJon> lambs to the slaughter niha <les> jeez niha, u as bad as the brits here 10:23 streets r empty when england plays footie everyone in the pubs watching 10:24 Exited ER2 Long @ 704 --> - 0.9 «« paper »» 10:25 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 704 «« paper »» Covered all ER2 Short @ 704.5 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» 10:27 Long ER2 @ 705.5 «« paper »» 10:28 Long ER2 @ 705.4 -> Add «« paper »» 10:30 <NihabaAshi> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 707.00 10:31 <jperl> Shorts ER2 @ 705.50 10:32 <NihabaAshi> If ER2 can rollover southward and produce a Dark WRB to signal a failure in this counter-thrust... It's make new intraday lows. 10:33 If not...it'll easily shake me out of my Short position. <les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 706 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:35 <jperl> ER2 VWAP 706.12 10:37 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 706.00 --> + 1.6 Going to get ready for Brazil versus Ghana...see all later. * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 10:38 <les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 706.1 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» exit stop raised ER2 @ 705 «« paper »» 10:39 wrong exit stop raised ER2 @ 705.6 «« paper »» Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 705.8 --> + 0.3 «« paper »» <jperl> Covered ER2 Short @ 705.40 --> + 0.1 10:43 <szubaark> NQ made new lows 10:48 Long YM @ 11091 10:59 <pdays> Long ER2 @ 703.3 «« paper »» 11:09 <codehead> long Ym 11077 <paper> 11:11 naz cci trying htlb on 3 min 11:12 10 tick stop 11:13 uhoh--ER zlr down stopped out -10 YM <paper> 11:14 <szubaark> Exited all YM Long @ 11068 --> - 23 :( Shorts YM @ 11067 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <pdays> Exited all ER2 Long @ 702.3 --> - 1 «« paper »» 11:15 <szubaark> going thru Support like butter <codehead> wow that was some pop on MOVI 11:17 2 points in a heartbeat long YM 11054 <paper> 11:19 stop 11043 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) <szubaark> wooooww... what a POP down 11:25 <codehead> was starting to type move stop down to 11039 but price hit my old stop first out -11 <paper> ym needs to bounce here long YM 11041 <paper> 11:26 still want to test bounce this level 11:27 but this is pretty nasty action <szubaark> Covered all YM Short @ 11049 --> + 18 11:28 <codehead> nice 11:29 <szubaark> well..took a loss of -28 Before that <codehead> it helps at least <szubaark> yeah.. market always has a suprise 11:30 <codehead> exit Ym +11 <paper> if mkt doesn't totally suck, needs that to be the low for a bounce 11:31 <szubaark> only reason we bouncing here is NQ double bottom FOR NOW <codehead> yeah i was looking a support bounces on the indices 11:32 but longs not putting up much fight today 11:33 trinq over 2 now 2.58 now 11:34 the htlb did signal naz bounce 11:39 <aym> Buy er2 @ 700.9 risk 2 11:56 <codehead> 3 min YM ghost, potential 5 min vegas 11:57 meaning bounce *possible* <aym> Exit er2 @ 701.9 11:59 <codehead> ER 5 min vegas setup 12:00 <WannaBeBOS> what is that stuff code? 12:03 <codehead> woodie's cci nq has triggered 5 min vegas (up signal) other indices pushing down tho 12:04 wanna--you got bumped before i answered your question: 12:05 woodie's cci Sponsor:
<WannaBeBOS> oh 12:09 thanks <codehead> hm, ghost patterns possible, just noticed 12:11 on YM cummon Ym give me a retest 12:13 was gonna buy 11025 when stock alarm went off :-/ 12:14 naz trying dbl bottom 12:15 ER downtrend pretty strong 12:17 YM looks like bounce 12:20 well, more bouncy than ER <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:26 <codehead> long YM 11024 <paper> 12:32 really went long 11022 but chicken and took +1, so converted to paper trade 11014 stop 12:33 don't like it tho (using paper trade to keep me out of a bad real trade--nuts, huh?) move stop b/e 12:35 stopped flat YM <paper> 12:37 sox b/d on daily 12:38 long ER 695.90 <paper> 12:42 1 pt stop 12:43 exit ER +.40 <paper> 12:55 trying to famir up tho long ER 696.10 <paper> 12:56 exit ER +. 12:57 exit ER +.5 half <paper> stop flat on rest 12:58 stopped flat on remainder 13:00 long YM 11034 <paper> 13:08 * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi <NihabaAshi> Wow...didn't now ER2 would "trend" today. <codehead> ya 13:09 <WannaBeBOS> neither did i <codehead> Ym needs to get over 11040 13:11 sellers protecting that level 13:15 YM 11040 test 13:25 thru 13:28 but stuck 13:31 naz broke downtrend 13:32 YM coma 13:33 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:35 <szubaark> Shorts YM @ 11033 13:54 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 697.90 -> small size 14:04 :( Exited all ER2 Long @ 698.30 --> + 0.4 14:05 Enter trade by error via seeing something (a pattern) that wasn't there... 14:06 Decided it was best to dump the position. <szubaark> watching NQ for lower high here 14:07 <codehead> exit half YM +10 <paper> taking too long 11060 target, but not enough juice stop remainder b/e 14:08 so i can quit watching it stopped out b/e on remainder 14:11 <szubaark> still feels weak 14:13 <codehead> ya, mkt setting up for a dip to buy after fed thrusday 14:15 thurs <szubaark> 11000 would be good level til thursday think thats where they want it til the announcment 14:16 <codehead> here you go 14:22 <szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven YM @ 11033 14:26 code..no it wasnt the CCI looooll 14:27 <codehead> ER testing uptrend support naz in key support area 14:28 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 693.60 -> small size Wow...all kinds of GAPs being filled that had developed over the recent past trading days. 14:29 <PapaJon> yes they are ... :)) 14:30 <codehead> long 692.30 ER <paper> stop 691.70 <paper> 14:31 just support test--might need another flush tho :-P 14:32 exit half +1 ER <paper> stop b/e remainder <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 693.00 --> + 0.6 <codehead> actually +.90, misread entry rainse stop 692.90 14:33 <NihabaAshi> Few buyers stepping up to the plate. <codehead> exit reminder +.60 <NihabaAshi> Meant...not enough buyers stepping up to the plate. <codehead> wanted to see Ym test closer to 11000 11007 lod <NihabaAshi> ER2 has one more GAP fill at 690.50 14:34 <szubaark> code..wait u might get yur 11000 <NihabaAshi> If it reaches that...very impressive drop in a single day. <codehead> yeah, was also watching for 690 area on ER 14:35 <PapaJon> hmmf... niha .. i dont see any gaps at that level that are unfilled 14:37 <szubaark> i dont see any gaps either.. i was looking at Cash and Futures?? 14:38 <codehead> indices could set up inv ghost and vegas patterns to bounce off of <PapaJon> i do see a small one around 691.8 tho is shows up on the 15min and 60min 14:39 <NihabaAshi> Papa...WRB is via the 5min chart @ 1015am - 1020am est on June 23rd Friday There's another one (lower) via the 15min chart on June 21st at 0930am est. 14:40 <PapaJon> gotcha.... thnx... i have it at 690.7 <NihabaAshi> They'll make great "position trades or swing trades" if we can catch a big mover. 14:41 Obviously missed today's opportunity (had my chance) via getting World Cup fever at the wrong time :) <PapaJon> hehe... it was an interesting game 14:42 ghana actually did better than i thought they would... despite losing the game. <NihabaAshi> They (Ghana) got this far via being physically tougher than their opponents... 14:43 Brazil was too slick for them to let it turn physical. Game of the day is in 15mins...France vs. Spain. <PapaJon> yah... true... in reality.. the score shold have been 2:0 14:44 that one goal was truly offsides Sponsor:
<NihabaAshi> Will be on Skype with my french relatives in France during the entire game :) <PapaJon> hehe skype is awesome... 14:45 <NihabaAshi> Agree...I do all my international phone calls via Skype. <PapaJon> my bro just moved to india... so.. is very easy to communicate with him yep <NihabaAshi> Those receiving my calls on their phones are shocked I'm calling via the internet...they can't tell the difference :) And its free. 14:46 <PapaJon> i know.. its quite amazing vid phone tho is lacking... gets too choppy with video running tried that the other day with my bro <NihabaAshi> Haven't tried to video. If it's better than Yahoo! messenger...may be worth setting it up. 14:47 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <PapaJon> it dint work very well for us it froze up and audio became ggarbelllllllllleeed <codehead> long ER 692.30 <paper> 14:49 <NihabaAshi> Technology is here already...when they can get the video to look like the real thing like watching a TV show... <codehead> 1 pt stop <NihabaAshi> It'll be hot like music on iPods :) <PapaJon> yep... definitely <szubaark> Covered all YM Short @ 11008 --> + 25 14:50 <codehead> nice 14:51 <szubaark> going with the trend.. alot easier <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 692.20 -> small size 1 contract only...now in profit protection mode (small size only via 1 contract). 14:52 Last trade of the day before the soccer game. <codehead> went long YM 10999 but immediately bailed +1 for phone 14:54 what a time for a call missed re-entery 14:55 trying to buy hard dips for this vegas 14:56 forming ER didn't hit my (paper) stop 14:57 got within a tick tho has an inv ghost setup exit half ER +0.80 <paper> stop on remainder raised to b/e 15:04 got nervous about 1 target--2 more seconds and it woulda hit raise stop on remainder 693.30 <paper> 15:05 inv ghost worked and YM vegas too raise stop 693.70 <paper> stopped ER +1.4 remainder <paper> 15:07 <szubaark> nice code 15:11 <codehead> cripes, my real futs trades today, two +1 tick YM trades :-P 15:12 at least i covered commish :-/ sox been incredibly bad since May 15:13 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 694.50 --> - 2.3 15:21 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 694.50 Reversed into a large long position. Got caught up with the game and didn't have my usual initial 2 point stop in. 15:22 Looks like Hammers all over the place off that bounce. 15:24 <codehead> ER zlr try fro up 15:30 that worked, but now potential ghost for down iif this dip doesn't get bought 15:33 on 3 min 15:34 <NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility is declining now...it's going to get its next price movement lead soon. 15:35 Exited ER2 Long @ 693.80 --> - 0.7 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 693.80 WRB low volatility reversal :( 15:36 <codehead> pretty late in the day 15:38 margins need to be covered soon <PapaJon> yah baby... 15:41 france just scored <NihabaAshi> :) <codehead> 3 min ghosts all triggered for down <NihabaAshi> I'm doing some emotional trading here and not because of trading :( I need 3 more ticks to fix the last two trades. 15:42 <PapaJon> coming right up niha 15:44 <Phil_FX> Hello <NihabaAshi> Hi Phil...welcome. <codehead> ER low retest 15:45 dink <NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 691.30 --> + 2.5 15:46 <codehead> nice <NihabaAshi> Got greedy and got more :) Emotional trading :( <PapaJon> your welcome niha... i try to please lol <NihabaAshi> :) 15:47 It's halftime now between France vs. Spain I'm calling it a day. <PapaJon> yep.. lunch time here <codehead> what a nice trend on ER today 15:52 sheesh and naz <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 690.00 --> + 3.8 Geeesh...I caught that 690.00 WRB zone area :) 15:53 <codehead> nice <NihabaAshi> I still can't believe France got suckered into letting Spain setup that penalty goal :( 15:54 Take care all and see all tomorrow. * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <codehead> nice 2 pt bounce on ER off that 15:56 bounced 3 off low 15:58 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:59 <PapaJon> cya all 16:17 * DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Jun 27 16:20:03 2006 16:20 Sponsor:
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