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#FuturesTrades May 10th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

 

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+6.70 +109.20 +1240.40
$670 $10,920 $124,040

Current Performance Record

Candlestick Pivot Point Trading Triggers

Trader Workstation and Profit/Loss Statement

 

Today's WRB Analysis: Today was a market seasonal tendency (cycle) that I failed to exploit for big profits due to greed.

What I meant to say is that I knew the market was going down today with high probability and I was determine to Short any market rallies if a pattern signal appeared.

The problem is that somehow I went from my aggressive trading plan to my conservative trading plan when the GAP Down at the open occurred. In hindsight, my trading plan should not have change and its trading plan error I rarely make involving market seasonal tendencies.

The good thing was that I didn't stand in the way of those Dark WRBs that acted like falling rocks.

Take a look at our 5min ER2 regular trading hour chart (no overnight data) and I counted twelve Dark WRBs in which five of those Dark WRBs failed to push prices lower.

Click on chart to view actual size

Simply, seven Dark WRBs were trend continuation price action, one Dark WRB was a trend reversal price action while the remaining four Dark WRBs was counter-trend price actions (chart does not highlight the trend continuation Dark WRBs).

All of these Dark WRBs were categorized for price direction analysis via the price action that occurred within the first few intervals after each Dark WRB.

However, instead of giving you the specific times of each Dark WRB...I'm just going to give the specific times of those five Dark WRBs that were not a trend continuation pattern in that their price action seemed at first to get in the way of the other falling rocks.

Dark WRB Trend Reversal via the 5min interval that Closed @ 0945am est and later reached a WRB pt2 exit.

Dark WRB Counter-Trend via the 5min interval that Closed @ 1210pm est and later reached a WRB pt2 exit.

Dark WRB Counter-Trend via the 5min interval that Closed @ 1335pm est and later reached a WRB pt1 exit.

Dark WRB Counter-Trend via the 5min interval that Closed @ 1515pm est and later reached a trigger price to prompt moving a initial stop/loss protection into a +1 tick profitable trailing stop...a trailing stop that gets hit on the retrace back down.

Dark WRB Counter-Trend via the 5min interval that Closed @ 1600pm est and later reached a WRB pt1 exit.

You should notice something already with the above WRB designations...there's a difference between a trend reversal signal and a counter-trend signal and they are differentiated by the price action since May 8th Tuesday...a key trading day prior to the FOMC Announcement trading day.

If you look at the price action closer, you'll see a Japanese Candlestick bullish engulfing pattern involved with the Dark WRB trend reversal price action of 0945am est.

You should see a Japanese Candlestick bullish harami pattern and double bottom pattern (1205pm - 1335pm est) involved with the Dark WRB counter-trend price action of 1335pm est.

Thus, the Dark WRB counter-trend price action of 1210pm est helped setup that Double Bottom.

With that said and some hindsight analysis, I was already bearish from the Open due to the market seasonal tendency (cycle).

Thus, I should have been larger in my position size on the Shorts in comparison to my Long positions.

Further, I only trade counter-trend patterns if I'm up big in profits for the trading day and always with a small size position.

Last of all, before you read the below chat log, trend reversal signals are dynamic in that they can also behave as a trend continuation signal.

For example, the market is trending downwards and your bias is bearish. Next, the market puts in a minor counter-thrust pattern that fails and produces a trend reversal price action of that minor bullish trend within the major downtrend as in the Short signal @ 1440pm est via the Advance Japanese Candlestick Trading Report (AJCTR).

Simply, to help with your trading when there's a falling rock warning sign, you need to learn about WRB Analysis.

General Strategy Info: Currently, I'm exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading Emini Futures ER2.

In addition, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology via my best strategies involving WRB Analysis. However, there are other key variables integrated with WRB Analysis that involves simple concepts of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis, support/resistance zones and position size management along with custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades. Also, I use the user name NihabaAshi in the below trade posting chat log.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

   
  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Thu May 10 09:18:50 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:18
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm all09:21

guess buy the dips ...09:22
<werner> gm all09:26
<jperl> my trading chart for today....

with VWAP pivot points drawn in.....09:27

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-10/JP ERL_011.png

congestion area in the 834.47 to 835.68 area
<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.09:28
<pat255> gm
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 829.60 -> small size 09:32
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1511 09:35
<jperl> ER2 bounced off of 829.70 area
<NihabaAshi> I have a Bearish Bias all trading day today.09:38

However, the GAP down at the Open is problematic for my bias.

Thus, I will keep my Shorts on the very low side of a small size position (1-2 contracts only).09:39

Same with my Long positions.

Another way of looking at it...

Had the market not GAP down...I would be Shorting via a large size position.09:40

Position Size Management

Also, so far, the volatility sucks :)
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1510 --> - 1
<szubaark> so far May Price Action is throwing me off.. getting lots of losing days in a row.09:42
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 828.30 --> + 1.3
<jperl> ER2 bounce off the monthly VWAP 828.0309:43
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)09:45
<pat255> S 28.5 paper09:47
<jperl> peak volume holding up at 830.40
VWAP 829.4609:49
ER2 back to VWAP09:51
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 829.50 --> + 0.1

My trailing stop got "pick pocketed" :(09:52
  
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If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.
   Trading Strategies ->   These strategies, from entry to exit,  will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) 
  
<jperl> ER2 peak volume now down at 829.1009:57
<NihabaAshi> It's been awhile since I've seen volatilty contract like this in the first 30mins of trading.09:58
<jperl> VWAP 829.47
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1511
<NihabaAshi> It's either going to setup an strong parabolic price movement or stay like this for the remainder of the trading day.09:59
The odds are in favor of a strong parabolic price movement :)
<les>  Long ER2 @ 829.7 10:00
<pat255> chop & picking pockets on both sides ..10:02
at the moment ..
<RussellDaytrade> I have up targets workings...nearby t is 831.8, possibly higher, bigger swing in the 836 area10:03
<NihabaAshi> I'm now lowering my position size to 1 contract only for the remainder of the trading day unless some volatility shows up.10:06
<jperl> not much further action for me this morning....

here are my two trades....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-10/JP ERL_012.png
<ItalianSharp>  not much happening right now...i guess mkts are still digesting the FOMC, ECB and BOE interest rates statements and comments...lots of stuff happening within a less than 24-hr window10:12
<les>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 831.2 --> + 1.5 10:18
<pat255> vn..10:19
<les> thx
<pat255> seems to be turning around ..
<ItalianSharp> nice patience there lex...well done10:22
<les> thx IS
its sluggish but generally pointing up so far
we'll see how far
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1513 --> + 2
<pat255> vn em ..L sid eworking10:23
<eminitrader> thx pat
<ItalianSharp> european indices are flying as opposed to US indices
<les> uk expects rate hike today

predicted, so already priced in i guess10:24

interesting10:39

i thought it would test a lot lower before breaking out here
<Brutus> 1100/1500 Chicago Fed Pres Moskow gives10:40
introduction and welcome at the Chicago
Fed's conference,
1115/1515 Fed Gov Krozner speaks on "The Future
of Payments
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1503 --> - 8 10:42

Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1513 --> + 2 10:43
<les> thats better em :)
<eminitrader> :)
<Brutus>  Shorts ES @ 1513.5 «« paper »» 10:44
had a fill at 1513.25 as well10:47
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 829.8 10:57
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<RussellDaytrade> rebuilding a small long11:04
<les>  Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 829.8 --> + 0.1 11:05
<jperl> ER2 VWAP 830.1111:10
<Brutus>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1509.5 --> + 4 «« paper »» 11:14
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 828.70 -> small size

1 contract only

Not looking for much on the trade.11:15
<jperl> 1 month VWAP 828.03
<eminitrader> nice B
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 827.1 11:17
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 826.90 --> + 1.8
<les> late, sorry11:18
<NihabaAshi> Got much more than I expected.
<pat255> vn niha i hesitated ...:(
<les>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 826.6 --> + 0.5
<Brutus> thx e, but I did have a larger target and did not want to cover so soon :(11:23
Covered all ES Short @ 1507 --> + 6.5 «« paper »» 11:24
<les> its turning into downcreep crap11:25
<NihabaAshi> Too much downside pressure at the moment especially with the price action of Oil and Gold keeping the pressure to the downside for the Eminis.11:26
Intermarket Analysis
Simply, if Oil and Gold can show a little stability...could be worth a few ticks to the upside in the Eminis.11:27
<pat255> ty niha ...seems u pay close attention to oil gold & bonds11:28
<NihabaAshi> Yep...on some trading days they are the real leaders.
Doesn't happen often but enough in that I need to pay attention to what they are doing.11:29
<pat255> k...thks
<les>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 826.2 --> + 0.9
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 825.60 -> small size 11:31

I see some stability...not sure how long it will last.

Exited ER2 Long @ 826.30 --> + 0.7 11:32
<Brutus>  Shorts ES @ 1507.5 «« paper »» 11:33
<les>  Long ER2 @ 824.90

wrong entry11:34

should be..11:35

Long ER2 @ 827.1

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 827.6 --> + 0.5
<kei> short es @150711:37
<Brutus>  Covered ES Short @ 1508 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» 11:38
<eminitrader> nice read niha [09:39:03] <NihabaAshi> I have a Bearish Bias all trading day today.11:40
<werner> lol
<Brutus> China Flags Asset Bubble Risk, Action Likely11:49
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={c2417 cc9-ac6c-4988-a265-b477cc622dcc}
<les>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 828.4 --> + 1.3
<RussellDaytrade> next China swoon likely to be deeper then the last one a couple months back
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1506.25 11:50
<RussellDaytrade> I have up targts on
<Brutus> Yes that and Bank of England tightening - make bearish headlines
<RussellDaytrade> bigger picture, mkt is overbought..seasonals, etc
short rallies
pft on the day in the l/s acct, and it wasn't pretty...no rtades in the s/o acct
flat, looking to go long again11:51
heck, that China swoon may begin this evening11:52
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1505.75 --> - 0.5

looks like its already begun here :)11:54
<pat255> k guys cu all later ty..
<Brutus>  Long ES @ 1504.75 «« paper »»
<eminitrader> later
<kei> exit es @ 1504.5011:55
<RussellDaytrade>  this mkt action is foretelling of trouble elsewhere...China11:59
<Brutus>  Exited ES Long @ 1502.75 --> - 2 «« paper »» 12:00

that was smart :((

Was only small size on counter trend
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 824.7
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 824.2 --> + 0.5
sorry its late...12:01
<eminitrader> 1505.75 was major supp ...once that broke ...its tough for ct
<les> just moving so quick now
<NihabaAshi> A lot of downside pressure the past 10mins of trading because many key markets are in tune with each other while going down.
<Brutus> But I have lost my short position which I was hoping to reenter on the pullback
<les>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 824.3 12:02
<eminitrader> teue B ...somedays ..it happens ..but u did get a big one
<les>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 822.3 --> + 2.4 12:04

would be nice to get another leg here12:05

but these pullbacks are quite vicious today
<eminitrader> true niha ...all indices are so synchronized ...looks like a powerful move12:06
<NihabaAshi> Did we just loose 1/2 the room in here?12:19

Looks like its a Othernet server problem.
<Brutus> Yes that was a lot of volume on that move12:23
<RussellDaytrade> I have 825.4, and possibly 827.1, on this small swing, within the next 25 minutes or so
<les> trying to b/out now12:24
<RussellDaytrade> long 1 runner12:25

moidel target just fulfilled, 827 is adjusted model target12:26

I expect China to crack tonight, pulling US mkt down further tomorrow12:31

er holding relative to es12:32

I view er as the leadeer12:33
* WBAT is now known as WannaBeBOS12:34
* les is now known as lesAway12:41
<RussellDaytrade> flat now12:48
positive divergences building13:07
<Brutus>  Shorts ES @ 1502 «« paper »» 13:11

Just a paper trade as I did not get filled at 1504.75 :(13:12

No point sitting here twiddling your thumbs13:13
<RussellDaytrade> getting long again
<Brutus> post trades RD13:14
<RussellDaytrade> long 1 at 822.6, reducing size as day progresses13:15
wider scales...may even take the loss if breaks lows13:16
see link above for trades summary B
alomost too many to post13:17
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)13:18
<Brutus>  Covered ES Short @ 1502 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:19
<RussellDaytrade> all trade logic, and analysis posted, complete with targets, prior to targets being achieved, and when prices were near entries, how much more do you want? :)
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 824.00 -> small size
:(13:20
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1888.75 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> My entry sucked...should have been about 5 ticks lower.13:21
<szubaark> what timeframe?
<NihabaAshi> In other words I would have entered at 823.50 and dumping about now at 824.0013:22
szu...2min chart
Simply, I entered at my profit target :(
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1885.50 «« paper »» 13:24
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 824.30 --> + 0.3 13:26
Lucky escape :(
<Brutus>  Shorts ES @ 1502 «« paper »» 13:27
<NihabaAshi> I didn't plan on having a stressful trade on that.
Should have been an easy 5 tick had I done it right.
<RussellDaytrade> I have 826 model, 827.80 adjusted model..shall we say by 1220 mnt?

if breaks lows con gusto, new targets will develop13:28

flatted it13:32

trend-follower dream day13:34
<NihabaAshi> Forex EurUsd and CME EuroFX getting hammered today as well.13:37
On the flip side...U.S. Dollar doing very well today :)
That's important for me considering I live in Canada and my U.S. dollar carries more weight here.13:38
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1885.50 --> - 3.25 «« paper »» 13:42

Tagged my Stop then my way :((
<NihabaAshi> Reminder: It's Mother's Day on Sunday.13:43
<werner> lol
<NihabaAshi> I forgot once about 12 years ago and I still get an earful about it.13:44
<Brutus> Better be something expensive considering yesterdays winnings :))
<ItalianSharp> thanks for reminding us Niha...i had totally forgot...lol13:45
<NihabaAshi> I feel cheap...I payed for a $90 "Carnations, Roses and Tulips Arrangement".
<Brutus> dang thats no cheap, no point buying flowers they only turn to compost13:46
<NihabaAshi> That's what my spouse saids...13:47
<ItalianSharp> i agree with brutus...flowers are the biggest waste of money ever
fake flowers are better...at least they never die...lol
<RussellDaytrade> better to send no flowers then fake flowers, seems to me. :)13:48

that would truly be a heart-breaker13:49
<Brutus> looks like an afternoon reversal in the making
<RussellDaytrade> last posted targets still on, good probability they will exceed

got back in at 822.213:50
<NihabaAshi> Brutus, its setup nicely for such right now.
In fact, I think since 1:36pm est its the best chance all day for a possible good push to the upside in comparison to the one between 0945am - 1045am est.13:52
<RussellDaytrade> out 825.3
<Brutus>  Covered ES Short @ 1502 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:53
<RussellDaytrade> 826...target fulfilled13:57

that 827.8 fulfilled to 827.6...hope that close enuf for you'all, works for me.14:08

long again14:14
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1503 14:20
<szubaark> emini where is your Stop?14:26
<eminitrader> 1505.59 with add on upto 147514:27
add on 1504.75
no fill 1504.50 :(14:29
* lesAway is now known as les
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:30
<szubaark> that double bottom on NQ could scare Shorts14:32

i went Long looking for Higher Low,they whacked my Stop there :((14:33
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1504 -> Add
<les>  Shorts ER2 @ 826.2 14:36
  
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<eminitrader>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1502.50 --> + 1.5 14:40
thats 1 from avg 03.5014:41
<jperl> enough for me today.....14:43

here's the P/L...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-10/JP ERL_013.png
<les>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 825.9 --> + 0.3 14:46
<RussellDaytrade> 500 less comm, great day JP14:51
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1501.50 --> + 1.5 14:59
Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1499.50 --> + 3.5 15:08
<RussellDaytrade> may be a little late-day short-covering, looks minor today, if happens15:37

couple bucks max15:38
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:42
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 822.30 -> small size 15:44

Covered ER2 Short @ 821.90 --> + 0.4 15:49

Shorts ER2 @ 821.70 -> small size 15:50

Covered ER2 Short @ 820.90 --> + 0.8 15:53

Shorts ER2 @ 820.70 -> small size 15:54

Covered ER2 Short @ 820.60 --> + 0.1 15:56

I thought it had enough press to test the 820.00 price area but it just stalled around 820.5015:57

I started suspecting there was a support zone somewhere near that 820.50 that I couldn't see.

The market made a statement today about its "real reaction" to yesterday's FOMC Announcement.16:01

However, I would have like to have seen the Treasury Futures completely retraced yesterday's price drop.16:03

It came close.
<asuni> [15:58:20] <NihabaAshi> I started suspecting there was a support zone somewhere near that 820.50 that I couldn't see.16:06
sr zone was 82100/82080
<NihabaAshi> Thanks asuni.
<asuni> may 2nd16:07
<NihabaAshi> Looks like I escaped just in time in my last trade :)
<asuni> u just had to ask me :-)
<NihabaAshi> :)16:08
<asuni> yes, very great exit
and another wonderful exit in ur previous long trade at 82450 if i'm not wrong
<NihabaAshi> Yep
<asuni> when u free, can u look at str room niha?
<NihabaAshi> Looking now.16:09
<asuni> thks
<NihabaAshi> Take care all.16:27
<ItalianSharp> by niha...good nite all...16:28
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:54
* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu May 10 17:00:57 200717:00
  
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