#FuturesTrades trade log for traders - CBOT, CME, EUREX, EURONEXT, NYMEX, COMEX and FOREX

May Trade Log

Trade Strategies

Discussion Forum

Music While Trading

Testimonials

Disclaimer

#FuturesTrades May 9th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+42.10	+102.50	+1233.70
$4,210	$10,250	$123,370

Current Performance Record

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns

Trader Workstation and Profit/Loss Statement

Today's WRB Analysis: Profitably trading on the day of a FOMC Announcement begins soon after the opening bell as positions are establish. It's all about being properly prepared to trade and sticking to the trading plan.

In fact, my pre-fomc analysis had me looking for "expanding volatility" due to the contracting volatility over the past several trading days.

Yet, the price chopped around after the interest rate announcement via quickly retracing WRBs until the volatility contracted (2:15pm - 2:37pm est).

Further, to make matters worst, I almost stopped trading for the day due to the volatility not meeting my expectations and that's when I started thinking instead of being emotional.

Take a look at your 1min charts of 2:15pm - 2:37pm est of the Emini Futures and you can see the contracting ranges of each interval to represent the contracting volatility. This sets up a volatility spike and all you need to do is wait for a pattern signal to appear to exploit the volatility spike.

It was @ 2:39pm est when I got a bullish pattern signal via the Swing Trading Report (STR) that was also a volatility spike to lead into a bigger volatility spike.

However, as shown in the below trade post chat logs I got Long in the Emini ER2 futures about 7mins earlier.

Why did I enter the trade early when there was no confirmed pattern signal?

The CBOT Emini YM and Eurex DAX had Dark WRBs s/r zones @ 2:24pm est that setup a key s/r zone along with the price action soon after developed into contracting volatility and some price calm after the FOMC Announcement.

Also, had that volatility spike occurred downwards instead of upwards, it would have been an easy position reversal from Long to Short.

Therefore, it was an excellent risk trade with probabilities on my side of the trade.

Unfortunately, the Emini ER2 wasn't able to maintain its price movement upwards after 2:48pm est and that's when I decided to dump my remainders in the Long position...an exit in a price action above a WRB profit target 4.

That's when the fire department showed up to rescue the Shorts and give them some new hope in ER2 even though Eurex DAX wasn't willing to cool off like the Emini Futures.

General Strategy Info: Currently, I'm exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading Emini Futures ER2.

In addition, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology via my best strategies involving WRB Analysis. However, there are other key variables integrated with WRB Analysis that involves simple concepts of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis, support/resistance zones and position size management along with custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades. Also, I use the user name NihabaAshi in the below trade posting chat log.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Wed May 09 08:54:46 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 08:54

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

* subq market profile charts for today 09:14

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 9/er2_mp_rth.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 9/es_mp_rth.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 9/nq_mp_rth.png 09:15

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 9/ym_mp_rth.png

<NihabaAshi> Market Expectation of the FOMC: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070509/fed_inter est_rates.html?.v=7 09:17

<RussellDaytrade> 825.34, just wanna write it down so I remember it 09:30

<PapaJon> gm all

<pat255> gm all...late 09:35

s er 29.3 09:36

out..-.5 09:37

dang :( 09:38

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 829.50 -> small size 09:40

:(

That sucks...

Nevermind :)

<pat255> lol 09:41

<jperl> for those interested.....

here is my er2 trading chart....

showing the StDev pivot points for today....

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 829.20 --> + 0.3 09:42

<jperl> based on the daily,weekly and monthly VWAP data....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-09/JP ERL_0117.png

There is a congestion region in the 831 to 832.5 area....

<Brutus> thx JP 09:43

<jperl> and another one in the 826.5 to 827.75 area

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 829.30 -> medium size

<jperl> Note how the open dropped and then bounced off the lower congestion area....

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1509.50 09:44

<jperl> then climbed backup and almost reached the upper congestion area

It is now sitting on yesterdays VWAP 829.16 09:45

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1510.25

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1511 --> + 1.5 09:47

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 829.80 --> - 0.5 09:48

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 829.80

Volatility is "unusually" slow...be careful.

<jperl> ER2 back to yesterdays VWAP 829.16 09:49

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 829.40 -> Add 09:50

<Chilly> Exited all ES Long @ 1510.50 --> + 0.25 09:51

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1510 --> + 0.5

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1510

Trading Edge:
Strategies
If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies -> These strategies, from entry to exit, will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility has declined further...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon. 09:54

<Brutus> Looking s as well waitng for an entry, shorts need to be shaken out imo

<NihabaAshi> Hopefully in the direction of my Long position.

<RussellDaytrade> nice chart JP, thx for posting. 09:55

<jperl> yw

<pat255> later guys @office ty 09:56

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:00

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 830.70 --> + 1.3 10:01

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1511.50 -> Add 10:03

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 831.50 --> + 1.7 10:04

Holding 2 contracts

<les> Long ER2 @ 813.6 10:06

<NihabaAshi> The goal here for me is to remain profitable on these 2 contracts going into the 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report and then the expected "supernova" 2:15pm est FOMC Interest Rate Announcement.

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1512 -> Add

<NihabaAshi> I need a minimum of +1.5 tick breathing room going into the FOMC Announcement.

exit stop raised ER2 @ 830.00 10:07

<les> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 831.6 --> + 18

oops

wrong entry post 10:08

Long ER2 @ 831.6

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 833 --> + 1.4

<Brutus> 1030/1430 May 4 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks 10:11

<ItalianSharp> QATAR OIL MINISTER SAYS GLOBAL OIL MARKET IS "SATURATED" 10:13

<ItalianSharp> don't really know what he meant by that...

<les> he wants higher prices, so maybe will call for titghtening production 10:14

<ItalianSharp> does he think there's too much oil aroung?

<les> nah IS, he just wants u to pay more for it :)

<jperl> E

<ItalianSharp> lol 10:15

<jperl> ER2 passed through the upper congestion area with ease.....

next area of congestion is 834.40 to 835 shown here....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-09/JP ERL_0118.png

<Brutus> Global stocks 10:17

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={4182e 342-4e5a-470a-824a-369b33e5d669}

Shanghai B up another 6%

Time for a correction

US will lead today imo 10:20

:))

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 831.7 --> + 0.1 10:28

<pdays> Energy #s out 10:30

Larger than Est's 10:31

<jperl> peak volume ER2 now 832.40 10:33

<les> looks like retracing its steps back down the 2min WRB @ 10:04 10:37

looking like it runs smack into 50ema, vwap and 200ema right after that 10:38

gonna hurt its head

<NihabaAshi> Eminis holding up well considering the 10:39

...Oil took a hit 10:46

Thus, if Oil can stand on its own two feet today with some help from Gold... 10:47

Eminis should make a new intraday high. 10:48

I got a hard stop in @ 830.00 and audio alerts on loud @ 830.50 10:49

Be back later, going outside to wash the window screens :)

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<eminitrader> Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 1510.50 --> + 1.5 10:57

thats +0.5 on the avg 11:02

<jperl> ER2 price action now back in the congestion zone shown here..... 11:09

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-09/JP ERL_0119.png

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<jperl> two trades this morning..... 11:15

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-09/JP ERL_0120.png 11:16

<Brutus> Still seeing bearish signs, so still unsure, want to see a climax top 11:23

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 12:00

<Brutus> Do you have a strong bearish bias today e? 12:06

<eminitrader> no B... 12:07

<Brutus> OK thx 12:08

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:21

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 12:29

<NihabaAshi> Be back later...going to take a nap. 12:34

I have my audio alert to tell me if 836.00 has been reached.

Geeesh...I've reached one of my FOMC profit targets before the announcement itself :) 12:38

Exited ER2 Long @ 836.20 --> + 6.4 12:39

Holding 1 contracts for the FOMC Announcement

<Brutus> Took a risky short at 1515.5, no fill, dont want to chase it at these levels 13:28

Sponsor:
Traders Accounting
As traders we must treat our trading like a business if we are to succeed as traders and as a business. Therefore, waiting till the last few weeks March to prepare for April's taxes is not good for your trading and could put extra stress on your trading during tax month or the months that follow if your one of those traders that filed an extension.. Therefore, its best to be on top of your taxes throughout the year and Traders Accounting is a great resource for such especially if you want to prevent penalties or an audit several years from now.

<RussellDaytrade> from a price standpoint, i view that as the least risky short all day, thus far 13:29

possibly higher 'percieved risk' 13:30

<Brutus> Yeah would have prefered a t top earlier, so its now close to FOMC and holding 1514-1515 13:31

<RussellDaytrade> agree completely, this things gonna go ballistic, and usually in both directions! question is, which way first? 13:32

<Brutus> I still feel its a fake rise, watch for a pop up to get long the bracket traders then a sharp selloff, just a possibility 13:33

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<RussellDaytrade> agree, the rise may give way to a rapid drop...that said, the reaction to the fed announcements have altered dynamic the past 2 meetings. 13:34

the rise prior to the announcement, I refer to 13:35

<pat255> niha is the onecatches the setiment right.. 13:36

<RussellDaytrade> I gotta dn t of 832.5 on this, but with the fed, it may get skewed 13:37

with about 8 minutes remaining 13:38

<Brutus> :( waited all morning for that short 13:39

<RussellDaytrade> bigger swing 828.7 13:40

<Brutus> Doesnt matter if it starts selling off after FOMC I think it will break 1500 so hope to hop on 13:41

<RussellDaytrade> scale into it, so you have at least a little on, may be one way to address that 13:42

<Brutus> and if it breaks 1517 I'l watch :)

Right Rd with such a target it should be a good op for scale in

<RussellDaytrade> yeah, a little while ago I began to wonder if they'll spike the er up to new highs on this announcement, like the es and dow, etc 13:43

<Brutus> ER move is BS vs NQ imo 13:45

<RussellDaytrade> which, the move up, or this retrace? 13:46

<Brutus> The move up the AM

<RussellDaytrade> yep, it caught a tailwind

<Brutus> anyway we shall soon find out 13:47

<eminitrader> Covered ES Short @ 1514 --> - 4 13:52

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1514

<Brutus> Fed in 2 min 14:11

<NihabaAshi> I'm not concern with the actual rate announcement... 14:13

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1515 --> + 1

<NihabaAshi> I'm interested in the "wording" that goes with the announcement (bullish or bearish tone). 14:14

<pdays> Fed 5.25

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1414 --> - 100 14:15

Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1514 --> 0

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1512 «« paper »» 14:16

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 832.00 --> + 2.2

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 832.00

<werner> hi all 14:17

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1508.5 --> + 3.5 «« paper »»

<werner> news? on this sell? 14:18

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1511.25 «« paper »»

<szubaark> its going nuts :))

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1510.75 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 14:19

nq +ve

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 833.00 --> - 1

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 833.00

<werner> it must be news i think

<szubaark> lol

<werner> :)

<NihabaAshi> That's it :( 14:22

We're back within its own s/r zone...a big disappointment. 14:23

Exited all ER2 Long @ 833.50 --> + 0.5

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1511.5 «« paper »» 14:24

Covered ES Short @ 1512.5 --> - 1 «« paper »»

Shorts ES @ 1512.25 «« paper »» 14:25

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 833.50 -> small size

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1512.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:28

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 834.40 --> + 0.9

<ItalianSharp> pretty confusing price action IMO...cant really get a grasp of what's happening 14:29

<RussellDaytrade> believe it or not, reaction so far today is muted, the volatility has occured within a 'compressed' range

<ItalianSharp> spike down first, spike up second...

now we are right in the middle... 14:30

as tempted as i am to throw in a bet...i am holding off simply because i dont feel i have any edge trading this

<RussellDaytrade> all my shorts from earlier turned from losers to winners, bizness as usual :) 14:31

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 832.80 -> small size 14:32

<Brutus> You need to post them to get a hoorah :)

ES looks like a ECG print 14:33

<NihabaAshi> Starting to feel like normal trading :( 14:36

I was expecting a lot more volatility and more price direction than this :(

Big disappointment expecially with the chop still occurring. 14:37

Exited all ER2 Long @ 834.00 --> + 1.2 14:38

<RussellDaytrade> ok, herer they are, built short on scales up, started way early, kept size small..only 4 at max, smae structure on both acct..at worst point, both accts negative by about 1000, then on first reaction from 1045 to 1130, (mnt), I closed one, remaining shorts closed on fed reaction drop, then when it spiked up, shorted one more each acct, then closed that, and flat since, whew, gottq catch my breath...HOORAY!

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 834.60 -> small size 14:39

<RussellDaytrade> up 400 on l/s, 320 on s/o, exclusive of comm

<NihabaAshi> I got some very nice profits today but nothing near to my big goals for the day.

I was looking for a 5k trading day.

<Brutus> why only 5 ? 14:40

:))

<NihabaAshi> I had a position size cap and that's a number for the size I was doing and if things went "almost perfect". 14:41

:)

<Brutus> As pdcomm says, we make our own chains

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 836.50 --> + 1.9 14:43

:) 14:44

Wow

Things change fast.

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 838.60 --> + 4

<Brutus> Nice one Niha 14:45

<NihabaAshi> I no longer feel disappointed after a volatility spike like that...

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> I'll walk away today now feeling like a nailed the "price direction" correctly.

May get lucky and catch my profit goal. 14:46

<RussellDaytrade> I had a feeling they were gonna do this

<NihabaAshi> I'm about 1k away from it now.

<les> alltime high for er2 14:47

<jperl> ER2 hit the 3r StdDev for the day like a battering ram

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 840.20 --> + 5.6

<RussellDaytrade> yeah, it likley pulled the 3SD in it's wake! 14:48

<NihabaAshi> They as in the big boys took their sweet time in trying to understand those "words" that went with the "no rate change" announcement. 14:49

<RussellDaytrade> I think this fed volatility is like a drug, every so often, they have to have their fix, and one way or another, a certain amount of 'it' (volatility is going to come into the mkt, to satisfy the animal spirits...rebuilt another short...early, gave some back, thats ok 14:51

<Brutus> You nailed that exit, vn 14:52

<RussellDaytrade> gonna seem downright calm by comparison, in the coming days 15:00

<Brutus> My thoughts a few weeks back was the ES would shoot to 1520 before a good pullback 15:01

<jperl> I'm done for the day.... 15:03

P/L here....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-09/JP ERL_0121.png

<RussellDaytrade> big day, wtg JP 15:04

<jperl> yes an ok day

<NihabaAshi> I was hoping for volatility to contract a little more so that the current price action made sense to me. 15:19

<pat255> action is choppy ... 15:25

best trade was near the fomc time ..if one has the cjones to take it ...

<NihabaAshi> I almost called it a day when the FOMC price action after the announcement couldn't keep its WRBs and it was quickly retracing WRBs to produce another WRB. 15:31

<pat255> yes niha was very confusing to me ..

2 wrb ..

<NihabaAshi> I was able to stay in the game via keeping my losers small during that crappy price action. 15:32

Shorts ER2 @ 837.80 -> small size 15:49

Ok...I just realized I took a "greed" trade :( 15:50

Will be dumping it.

Thus, I'm calling it quits for the day.

Covered all ER2 Short @ 837.40 --> + 0.4 15:51

I think I took that trade because I wanted that "profit goal of 5k" for the day. 15:52

Poor reason for a trade and time to call it quits when I do stuff like that.

Heck, I didn't even have the proper size on the trade to try to make 800 bucks more. 15:53

Take care all and see all tomorrow.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<pat255> later niha 15:57

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<werner> gn all 16:05

<RussellDaytrade> gdmit, why the fk am I gettin outa them shorts so fkn early all the fkn time! 16:14

edit above as need be, gn all 16:19

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed May 09 16:30:22 2007 16:30

Sponsor:
Skype

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.