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#FuturesTrades May 4th Friday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+4.10 +41.50 +1172.70
$410 $4,150 $117,270

Today's Market Insights: Intermarket Analysis is one of the least discussed trading tools I've seen at any type of trading or investing discussion forum.

Yet, it's one of the keys to consistent profitability regardless if your a price action only trader (no indicators) or a trader that uses indicators (ex. macd, moving averages, rsi, cci et cetera).

However, most profitable traders that uses intermarket analysis are the professional traders (floor traders, institutions, top funds et cetera).

In fact, intermarket analysis is a commonality among the professional traders I personally know.

Today's WRB Analysis: As for my own trading today, I should have spent the day outside playing with the kids considering it was a day full of at home distractions that caused me to missed some trade opportunities that would have yielded big profits.

For example, while away from the computer to talk to some relatives (unexpected visit), I missed a Short signal at 12noon est via the 3min chart interval.

That missed trade opportunity was a WRB profit target 3 exit and for that particular price action...that's about $350 per contract.

Yet, I was able to trade one key swing point that lifted my profit loss column from red to green.

In addition, I use the user name NihabaAshi in the below trade posting chat log. You can read additional market insights as I and others traverse from trade to trade.

General Info: Currently, I'm exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading Emini Futures ER2.

Although I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology via my best strategies, there are other key variables consistent profits that involves simple concepts of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis, support/resistance zones and position size management along with custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan.

Simple concepts from the above are also commonalities behind the profits of institutional traders, floor traders, top hedge funds et cetera.

Another way to look at it, I'm just using some of the same concepts used by those that move the markets.

Therefore, I highly recommend a book like Candlestick Pivot Point Trading Triggers.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and if you want the instructions for gaining access to join #FuturesTrades...click here.

  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Fri May 04 08:23:47 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades08:23
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)09:13
* subq market profile charts for today, url changed up a bit

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/er2_mp_rth.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/es_mp_rth.png09:14

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/nq_mp_rth.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/ym_mp_rth.png
<ItalianSharp> morning all09:20
NFP #s came in a little below expectations09:21
surprisingly enough, mkts are still going to open with an up-gap
<NihabaAshi> The markets are trying much harder to go up in comparison to going down.09:22
<ItalianSharp> yes, that's my feeling too
either the NFP numbers aren't seen as that negative...
or there is some other reason why mkts weren't crushed yet...09:23
also, Eurofx is holding for now...
and US 10yr yields were down by only 2 bps09:24
<NihabaAshi> New York Fed President Geithner (FOMC voting member) is speaking about global economy on my side of town in Montreal at 0945am est.
<ItalianSharp> thanks niha09:25
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1512.50 09:31
<PapaJon> gm all09:32
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1511 --> + 1.5 09:34
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 833.00 -> medium size
Stole a great entry...lets see if it pays off via giving me a WRB exit.
Exited ER2 Long @ 832.40 --> - 0.6 09:38
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 832.40
<jperl> yesterdays VWAP 831.93
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1510 --> + 2.5
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 832.30 -> Add 09:39

Now my trade is in the time slot of that FED speech :(09:41

Shorts ER2 @ 832.90 -> Add 09:42

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 832.80 --> + 0.1 09:48

Shorts ER2 @ 833.10 -> Add
<eminitrader>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1512.50 --> 0 09:51
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 833.90 --> - 2.3 09:52

Shorts ER2 @ 833.70 -> large size 09:54
  
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   Trading Strategies ->   These strategies, from entry to exit,  will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) 
  
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1512 09:56
<NihabaAshi> :(09:57
<ItalianSharp> niha, i guess your intuition before the open about nothing stopping these mkts from going down is turning out true
<AmazingJason> still stuck in this range so far09:58
<ItalianSharp> still earling in the day though...anything can happen
<AmazingJason> alot of resistance here
<NihabaAshi> It's ranging right now "within" a WRB...a WRB that shouldn't have any importance :(
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1910 paper 09:59
<NihabaAshi> I've taken trades on the opposite side of that range and got nailed :(
Shorts ER2 @ 834.10 -> Add 10:01
Looking to exit when it gets back within the range of that so called "unimportant WRB".
<eminitrader> be back ...stpo in10:03
<jperl> ER2 stuck in the range of the 1st STd Dev of 3
VWAPs
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 833.10 --> + 1
<Chilly>  Shorts ES @ 1512.00
<NihabaAshi> Still holding the original Short large.10:04
<jperl> yesterday: 833.20
1 week: 833.81
1 month: 833.66
<ItalianSharp> tough price action thus far this AM10:09
<eminitrader>  Covered all ES Short @ 1512 --> 0
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 833.80 -> Add 10:11

Still jumply and retracing back into that range.
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1513. 10:12
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 834.00 -> Add
<jperl> peak volume @ 833.5010:13
VWAP 833.2810:14
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ADD of Short @ 833.60 -> +0.6010:15
<jperl> actiion still within the 1 STdDev congestion area
<ItalianSharp> still lots of buyers for mkts to be flirting around the highs
<NihabaAshi> Still holding original large Short position.10:16
<ItalianSharp> great battle between bulls and bears10:17
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all Short @ 834.20 -> -0.5010:18
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1913 --> - 3 paper

:(
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1514.25 -> Add 10:19
<jperl> touching yesterdays 2nd STdDev 834.46
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1913.25 paper 10:20
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 834.10 -> small size 10:21

Covered all ER2 Short @ 834.60 --> - 1.1 10:23

-0.50
<jperl> peak volume still 833.50
<eminitrader> pity the shorts ..including myself :((10:24
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 834.30 -> small size
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)10:25
<AmazingJason> i still think the market's headed down
<Chilly>  Covered all ES Short @ 1514.00 --> - 2

:(
<NihabaAshi> I finally realized its choppy and spikey...decided it was best to drop my position size dramatically.
<szubaark> its Friday, this could Creep higher all day Long :)
<AmazingJason> it's just been chopping and spiking in this trading range
<pat255> yup ..too choppy ..

got connection prob ontop of that ...10:26
<PapaJon> yah.. i have had only one signal and it barely made me my pt1 then stopped at b/e for remainger
<eminitrader> i went with the daily on the ES which called for a reversal....but looks like the short term momemtum players are winning
<AmazingJason> damn10:27
<eminitrader> maybe later in the day ..10:28
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 835.00 -> Add
* WannaBeBOS is now known as BOS-lazy
<jperl> VWAP=peak volume=833.5010:30
<PapaJon> looking like a balanced day .. eh jperl? at least for now...10:31
<jperl> volume distribution is now symmetric about the peak volume
yes
<PapaJon> churn and burn
<Chilly>  Shorts ES @ 1515.00
<PapaJon> unless ur strats are geared toward such action10:32
<Brutus> Mexico Stocks Near Intraday Record In Early Trade; IPC +0.9%
So many markets at record hihgs
Carlos may pass Bill gates soon10:34
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 834.20 --> + 0.9 10:35

Geeesh...my first WRB exit all day.
<eminitrader>  Covered ES Short @ 1513.50 --> - 0.5 10:36
Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1513.50
<Chilly>  Covered all ES Short @ 1513.50 --> + 1.5 10:37
<eminitrader> tthats b/e +commission :)
<NihabaAshi> Be right back...unexpected guests as in grandparents.10:38
<eminitrader> :))
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<jperl> here's what the symmetric distribution looks like.....10:41
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_016.png
volume histogram is on the left edge
yellow lines across the chart are the StdDevs from previous VWAPs10:42
curvy lines are todays VWAP data
You want to trade this going from the low volume area to the high volume central area10:44
as I did this morning
<RussellDaytrade> nice chart JP. are those SD lines dynamic also, like the vwaps?10:45
<jperl> trades are here....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_017.png10:46
<pat255> jper the std lines are drawn thry espl?
<jperl> RD.....SD lines are static....I could make them dynamic but they don't change much since they are from previous day, week, month10:47
Pat.....std lines are drawn manually by me in the morning before the open
<RussellDaytrade> so you use then set from previous days activity, for the current day?10:48
<jperl> yes
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1514.50 --> + 0.25 10:49
<pat255> jper the std dev line is for today only rigth?10:50
<jperl> The yellow lines are std Devs from previous day,week,and month

the curvy lines are for today10:51

monday...I will erase these and put new ones on....

lines are good for one day only
<pat255> so the trae if I recall is that u trade on L side if above the vwap?
trade
<jperl> Usually that would be true pat...but today because the distribution is normal....10:52

I did the opposite
<pat255> i c..
so i imagine when hits the 3rd dev u short?10:53
<jperl> correct....10:54

almost had that trade....but it didn't touch
<RussellDaytrade> let me see if I can read your thought process, as I intepret your chart construct...since I see no 2nd and 3rd SD on the downside, as there are for the upside, does that signify you are not expecting mkt to trade in that direction, so no need to include them? :)
<pat255> the std dev for vwap & what value u use for the 1st dev 2nd dev etc?
<jperl> RD... there are down side SD's but they are off the chart on the bottom10:55
<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx, that was my second guess!

alright, they're really down there, would like them to appear, sometime today. :)10:56
<jperl> pat...don't understand your question....rephrase it10:57
<pat255> u have vwap value & then u calculate 1st std dev what value is that ?
<Brutus> 1929 daily, weekly and monthly
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment .php?s=&postid=1457005
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1515 --> + 1.5 10:58
<jperl> The std dev is computed from the VWAP and the price data....
are you asking for todays values?
<pat255> yes ...
<jperl> ah...ok....
right now....
VWAP= 833.7010:59
1std dev = 834.38
2nd std dev = 835.0511:00
<pat255> & 3rd
<jperl> 3rd STd dev = 835.7211:01
<pat255> ty jper ..wil look at it to c how to show it ..
<jperl> keep in mind these values are dynamic11:02
<pat255> yes ...
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1513.50 --> 0 11:08
Long ES @ 1513 11:13
Exited all ES Long @ 1513 --> 0 11:20
<RDT> test11:27
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:37
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead11:48
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1511.75 12:10
<jperl> ER2 still in the STd DEv congestion zone....as seen here...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_018.png
<RussellDaytrade> looks promising to the downside12:11
I'd like seeing all those vwap SD's angling down for a day and a hlaf or so. :)12:13
<eminitrader> odds r we see new highs12:14

the ES is what i' refer to

my llast line of supprt - my ma's ...if this breks ...then maybe new lows ...till then i say new higs12:15
<RussellDaytrade> JP, on those vwap SD that are dynamic, you ever thought about incoporating the 'carry-over' values from the prvious day, so that in effect, it a dynamic continuation?12:16
<jperl> no

may program it sometime if I seed the need12:17

see
<eminitrader>  Exited all ES Long @ 1510.75 --> - 1
nq supp brokrn ..es still holding ..my pull the nq12:18
<RussellDaytrade> the moving averages on IB charts, (the charts I use show only the current day) carry over from the previuos day, and 'enter' the chart with the previous days last values, etc...have found that specific charateristic a benefit, in many instances...thought that same effect may have value in the vwap SD, etrc12:19
<eminitrader> supp broken on the es
prolly test lows12:20
<jperl> yesterdays VWAP 831.9612:22
<RussellDaytrade> I have a target that is fairlky close to the 1st Sd down on your chatr...830 area, posted it earlier, have to calculate it agin to get the specific price
830.76...fairly close..hopefully it goes way lower12:24
<jperl> -1st STdDev of yesterday 830.6812:25
<szubaark> anybody know what caused this drop? :))12:27
<RussellDaytrade> 830,76 represents a modulated target, whicjh is less than the model target, so hopefully full model takes precedence and re-establishes itself.

pretty fkn close, I'd say

I need 828 and lower12:28
<jperl> -2nd StdDEv from yesterday = 829.4012:29
<RussellDaytrade> 826.58 is full model...not so strongly inclined we'll see it, but it would be a treat12:30
<jperl> 1 week VWAP = 826.3312:31
<NihabaAshi_away>  Long ER2 @ 831.00 -> large size 12:34
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi
<NihabaAshi> Looks like I missed a nice little down movement while away from the computer entertaining guests.12:35

Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 832.60 --> + 1.6 12:42

I caught a WRB exit (2nd one of the day) but had an error on my position size in the exit.12:44

I only wanted to dump 1/2.
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:46
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 832.10 -> Add

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 832.60 --> + 0.5 12:50

Still holding 1/3 from the original position.
<jperl> VWAP = 833.3612:53
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 833.10 --> + 2.1
<RussellDaytrade> modulated t on this up move is 833.27
<jperl> ER2 peak volume now 832.7013:50

VWAP 833.30
<NihabaAshi> I just got back...too many at home distractions for me today :(13:57
<RussellDaytrade> I am detecting relative weaknesses developing, ie, muted ride this am, muted bounce that last upmove, etc, deeper selloff this midmorning, relative to price structures of yesterday, those types of things

this leg better break 830
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)13:58
<RussellDaytrade> them vwap SD angling down yet?
<jperl> slightly13:59
<RussellDaytrade> oh good, well, thats a start, will enjoy seeing them take stronger hold in the down direction14:00

barely traded today, just a few small shorts in both acct, all winners, go figure, still short core in both accts, ap now near 828 or so14:07
<NihabaAshi> Anybody in here having "disconnection problems" besides Asuni and Karsat ???14:14
<ItalianSharp> nope
<jperl> no
<RussellDaytrade> had a couple earlier today
<ItalianSharp> i think asuni has been having disconnection problems of his own
<NihabaAshi> Its something that's been going on for just a few traders for a few months now.14:15

I'm using mIRC version 6.12 and though the problems may be due to a newer version.
<jperl> using 6.2 here...no problem14:16
ER2 Chart update here....14:21
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_019.png
You can see how the price action took bounces off of the 1st STd Dev below yesterdays VWAP
<RussellDaytrade> the past two days have worked great for shorts, I began building a short too early, since then , every rally has come back in. I'll enjoy seeing them vwap SD's when and if they take a decided down move with price extensions, with vwap SD's at steeper angles down. thx for posting. :)14:26
<jperl> yw14:27
I'm done for the day.....14:28
P/L statement here....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_0110.png
  
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<RussellDaytrade> net 450 or so, looks good14:30

breaktime, union job. :)14:31
* BOS-lazy is now known as WannaBeBOS14:40
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:10
<NihabaAshi> Geesh...I missing everything today :(15:59
Long ER2 @ 836.10 -> small size 16:02
First sunny day around here outside and every body shows up and thinks I'm not trading today :(
Exited all ER2 Long @ 836.40 --> + 0.3 16:07
It was a good week of trading and a small profit today amongst all the distractions and didn't accomplish any trading goals today.16:09
Take care all and have a safe/good weekend :)
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:22
* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri May 04 16:31:48 200716:31
  
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