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#FuturesTrades April 24th Tuesday 2007 Trade Log

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Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year

+17.50 +135.60 +1078.50

$1,750 $13,560 $107,850

Japanese Candlestick Patterns as Market Clues instead of as Trade Signals

Profit/Loss Statement

The market dropped appropriately in anticipation (prior) to a poor Home Sales report and then when the report was released...the market dropped further after the Home Sales report release although the volatility was low overall.

Simply, the key today was the overall low volatility and that told me there will be a rebound but at what time would have been anyone's guess.

However, clues to when such a rebound started showing up at 1030am est when I started seeing some bullish Japanese Candlestick patterns and the Advance Decline Lines stalled at a key s/r zone.

Therefore, for anyone looking to go Long...1030am -1035am est was a good risk trade for such.

Yep, I missed those clues as they occurred in realtime which is rare especially since valid Japanese Candlestick patterns usually tell me to quickly look closer at my market breadth info and intermarket analysis to see if a pattern signal has appeared from my primary trade method.

Anyways, I had a good trading day and I reached my goals for the day.

Key news of the day

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: I'm currently exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading ER2.
Further, I can switch and trade any trading instrument that's listed below at the bottom of this webpage for any trader that request such mainly because I do a lot of intermarket analysis while trading ER2.
However, if you want to see up-to-date pattern signals in other trading instruments...click here.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Tue Apr 24 09:29:57 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:29

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 831.9 09:38

Covered all ER2 Short @ 831.4 --> + 0.5

Shorts ER2 @ 831.4 09:39

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 831.30 -> large size 09:41

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 09:42

<NihabaAshi> Hmmm...I had a small bullish bias at the open that would have resulted in a few tick profits had I acted upon the bias as an "intuition trade" :) 09:47

I just lost my support in this Short :( 09:48

<pat255> was reluctant to take S...

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1867.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Looking for a "lucky" exit...

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 830.7 --> + 0.7

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1865.50 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 09:51

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 829.80 --> + 1.5 09:52

Lucky exit :)

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1865.75 «« paper »»

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 830.7

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 830.2 --> + 0.5

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 829.60 --> + 1.7

<pat255> vn guys ... 09:55

<NihabaAshi> Anybody in here not getting market breadth info from VIX and VXN for today? 09:56

Mine is down as in "no data" so far this morning.

<ItalianSharp> everything ok here 09:57

<pat255> working here atleat vix 09:58

<asuni> same here

<pdays> home sales 6.12 est 6.4 conf 104 est 105 09:59

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1862.75 --> + 3 «« paper »» 10:00

<les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 828.1 --> + 2.6 10:02

<pat255> wtg 10:03

<les> ok here niha 10:05

vix and vxn

<PapaJon> vix and vxn ok here too niha 10:07

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 827.8 10:08

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 827.3 --> + 0.5 10:09

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<NihabaAshi> This is one of those werid trading days where the volatility is LOW but the market is moving in a trend like direction. 10:13

Odd considering is acting like this in the morning instead of the late afternoon. 10:14

<ItalianSharp> niha, i have the feeling that YM wants to test 13000 very bad 10:15

meaning, the dow jones cash index

13000 has been acting like a magnete

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1862 «« paper »» 10:18

<NihabaAshi> Thanks ItalianSharp. 10:19

Be right back...I don't have Eurex info nor my key market breadth info... 10:20

Going to disconnect from all servers via doing a complete shut down.

Be back in about 7 mins.

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Apr 24 10:20:49 2007

Session Start: Tue Apr 24 10:31:37 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 10:31

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:35

<wizardofrijnsaterwou> cover 1/2 short swings fdax 7490 - 7366 10:36

scuzi; 7390 - 7266 10:37

<les> Long ER2 @ 825.6 10:38

<werner> nice wiz 10:40

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 826.8 --> + 1.2 11:05

thats it for today 11:06

<pat255> vn les ...good patience

<les> thx pat

i love trends, so had a good one

<pat255> what tf u tarde from les? 11:07

<les> tf?

<pat255> time frame

<les> 2min mostly

<pat255> kty

<les> but manage using 3 or 4min 11:08

<pat255> k..

<les> mostly i trade between scratching my arse and cups of coffee

best tf i can think of

<pat255> lol

<NihabaAshi> Out of curiosity, was anybody surprised or not prepared for the price reaction to the 10am est Existing Home Sale report??? 11:24

It plunge for March.

<ItalianSharp> the numbers were below expectations...and that wasnt expected 11:25

however, i was surprised by the reaction of the mkts...i expected a much bigger drop, especially in YM

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...the market wasn't expecting good numbers but when the number came in "worst than expected"...

That's where I think the surprise was at. 11:26

<ItalianSharp> since this drop didnt occur...that kind strenghtens my idea of the dow cash index hunting for 13000

<NihabaAshi> ItalianSharp, I agree...

<ItalianSharp> the dow and 13000 is the talk of the town now...

<NihabaAshi> I thought for sure we would see a much bigger market movement today in reaction to those 10am est numbers.

<ItalianSharp> yep

in particular, i was listening to a floor trader being interviewed by CNBC a few mins before the open and he clearly stated that if the 10am numbers came below expectations, the mkts could easily take a hit 11:27

which didnt occur...at least for time being 11:28

<NihabaAshi> The treasury futures liked what they saw today via the 10am numbers :)

<ItalianSharp> yep...and dollar got hit hard

in fact, i noticed that lately when the dollar gets hit hard the mkts tend to make up for some of the dollar losses...basically, investors lose value on their dollar equity assets but that loss is somewhat hedged by mkts trading higher 11:30

<NihabaAshi> Interesting.

<ItalianSharp> the pound sterling has been impressive lately 11:32

i heard some rumors that the UK will eventually join the EURO...yet, not until EURO and POUND are somewhat close to even... 11:33

if the rumor is true, euro should keep appreciating while sterling should depreciate to fulfill this theory... 11:34

however, i seriously doubt it that UK will join EURO in the short term

why should they anyways? 11:35

<pat255> steady move up now ... 11:36

<ItalianSharp> ER doesnt look very bullish yet...while NQ and YM have retraced almost all the 10am news spike 11:38

<NihabaAshi> These low volatility price rise like the one since 1038am est are the most difficult to trade for me. 11:44

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<pat255> yup niha watching it go up...

<NihabaAshi> I'm usually like caught sitting on the sidelines just watching.

<pat255> dang had a good entry but chicked out

<NihabaAshi> By the way, most in here know that "intermarket analysis" is a key part of my trading. 11:52

I talk about different markets every once in while in here. 11:53

Whenever I talking about Treasury Futures and if you don't have a subscription to the Treasuries...

You can still monitor them via either their Yields (inverse price action) or the Dow Jones CBOT Treasury Index. 11:54

Most data providers offers those for free without any additional charges.

Same with COMEX Gold futures...

<pat255> niha traesuries inverse of the mkt? 11:55

<NihabaAshi> You can follow them via what's occurring in index like the XAU or the exchange traded fund GLD.

<pat255> sorry not much up wuth bonds

<NihabaAshi> pat255...the treasury markets only has a inverse price correlation on particular trading days. 11:56

Usually when there's what they call a "flight of quality" from the Eminis into the Treasuries.

However, I don't recommend any strategy for trading based upon some correlation between the Eminis and Treasuries. 11:57

I myself could never make such profitable and anybody that does...congrats.

Also, if I was trading Treasury Futures exclusively...I would be looking for opportunities when the Eminis, Gold and Oil are moving together. 11:58

<pat255> i c,, 11:59

<NihabaAshi> That's when the "flight of quality" really kicks in.

I'm sure there's other scenarios when it kicks in but that's my favorite situation especially when I'm swing trading the treasuries which only happens a few times per year. 12:00

I don't day trade the treasuries...too difficult.

<ItalianSharp> niha, what's the symbol of the treasury index? 12:02

<ContinuallyLearn> $DJCBTI ? 12:05

<ItalianSharp> yes, that's it CL...thanx

<NihabaAshi> She wanted the retrace that WRB bad :) 12:13

One more remaining to retrace for ER2 and that's up arond the 833 price area. 12:14

<ItalianSharp> US indices once again led by the dow 12:16

<pat255> nice niha on L side ...this slow move up surprised me.. 12:20

<NihabaAshi> That volatility spike made things interesting again... 12:22

Maybe it will develp into something I can trade.

<pat255> glad did not S this move ... 12:25

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 830.80 -> small size

This is suppose to be an easy 3-5 tick trade :( 12:26

Exited all ER2 Long @ 831.40 --> + 0.6 12:27

I got more than I expected :)

If volatilty can pick up on rising prices without declining too much in the volatilty.... 12:28

It should be able to test the 832 price area. 12:29

Meant to say volatility is now declining and needs to pick back up on rising prices to test the 832 price area.

<pat255> it will test that area ... 12:30

<bg> ym is on a steady march toward its 13040 high from last weekend 12:39

<szubaark> slow, controlled up creep. Best to stay on the sidelines UNLESS you get insider info like the Pros 12:40

<bg> 71tick range with little retrace, due for some rotation here 12:45

<NihabaAshi> [12:40] <szubaark> slow, controlled up creep. Best to stay on the sidelines UNLESS you get insider info like the Pros

szu...I have relatives via marriage with high ranking positions in some publicly traded companies... 12:46

I know it "could" be very profitable to trade on insiders info :)

Just poking a little fun at that. 12:47

By the way, if anybody has the opportunity to visit institution trading offices... 12:48

Do it...its very interesting.

It's not all about TA.

<bg> 13084 was the last higher vol level, maybe battle there 12:49

i mean 12984

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:56

<pat255> what happened to em ...?anyone know 12:59

S 830.2 er 13:00

papaer

<NihabaAshi> pat...he may be on vacation or time away from the markets. 13:12

<pat255> k...was just wondering ...ty 13:13

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 828.80 -> small size 13:28

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 829.40 --> + 0.6 13:30

I caught an exit at the price retracement of a prior Dark WRB on the 3min chart. 13:31

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 830.10 --> + 1.3 13:33

<pat255> nice catch their niha ..

<NihabaAshi> Thanks. 13:34

That last exit was at what I consider to be the "S/R Zone of a Prior Pattern Signal". 13:35

ER2 just tested the "s/r zone" of a prior pattern signal that was a Short signal around 1230pm est. 13:36

<bg> ym bulls stepped in 984 area 13:40

<ItalianSharp> YM hovering nearby all time highs 13:56

looks like 13K is in the making... 13:57

i decided to suspend trading until YM reaches 13K and fulfills its desire to test out that price level... 13:59

i'll resume trading once it touches on that level or drops far away from it 14:00

as of right now, i am not really getting a full grasp of the mkt exception made for the 13K level acting like a magnete for YM cash index 14:01

i could easily have exploited this YM desire to reach 13K to my advantage earlier today...now it's too late to jump aboard and we are too close to 13K to take any short position 14:02

hence, i am just sitting on the sidelines

<pat255> yes IS ... 14:03

<bg> momentum picking up from 13014 level 14:05

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:08

<bg> +10 ticks 14:10

<NihabaAshi> That's a lot of volatility that suddenly showed up. 14:11

Shorts ER2 @ 832.00 -> small size 14:13

1 contract only and last trade of the day.

I'm looking for 3-5 ticks 14:14

Covered ER2 Short @ 831.70 --> + 0.3 14:15

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 14:17

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<bg> volume will need to pick up early to scare off shorts looking to fade the 40 level 14:40

<bg> 89tick range uptrend day. with only two good pull backs, will only take a breakout long 15:36

<werner> gn all 15:54

<markss> Niha are you around by chance? 15:57

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 16:02

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Apr 24 17:14:56 2007 17:14

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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

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