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April 17th Monday 2006 Trade Log
#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.
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Further, you'll find below the chat room text log of realtime trades that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, you should read NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments (posted below after the trade posts) because sometimes the commentary will contain trading tips that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog.
Session Start: Mon Apr 17 09:35:37 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now talking in #futurestrades 09:35 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm <pat255> gm all .. 09:36 <NihabaAshi> Not trading today with real money via my stats showing that the first trading day after Easter is either a poor trading day for me (losses) or too stressful. Thus, I'm on simulator today and will return to real money trading tomorrow. <pat255> hmm pays to keep statistics...nice 09:37 <nico> I did just few pips on EUR.USD NihabaAshi: Thanks <aym> Short ES @ 1297.25 Stop Loss @ 1299 09:46 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 756.90 -> small size «« paper »» 10:07 Missed getting 757.20 do to a confirmation problem of the pattern signal. Covered ER2 Short @ 757.90 --> - 1 «« paper »» 10:09 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 757.90 «« paper »» Exited ER2 Long @ 757.10 --> - 0.8 «« paper »» 10:11 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 757.10 «« paper »» That's a reversal into a large size short position. Went from 1 contract to a 6 contract position. 10:12 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 10:23 <NihabaAshi> Volatility level in EuroFX EC now picking up a little. 10:28 Will hold on to my short just a little longer because of EC volatility action. Meant...holding on to my ER2 Short a little longer due to the volatility increasing in EuroFX EC. 10:30 <aym> What is th relation between EC & Er2? 10:31 <NihabaAshi> ER2 and EC are the most volatile of the liquid trading instruments... 10:33 Many months ago I noticed something odd... 10:34 When one started showing increases in its "volatility"...the other showed DECREASING volatility. When ER2 volatility decreased...within a few minutes afterwards... 10:35 It had a WRB price spike. ER2 volatility is drying up right now as I speak... 10:36 Thus, I expect a price spike here soon... <aym> So they are usually oppiste in volatility not in direction. <NihabaAshi> That will either get me my profit target on this Short or go against me to force me out of the trade at breakeven or +1 tick profit. 10:37 Yes...exactly...watch their volatility and not so much their price direction. Watching their price direction is too confusing..sometimes they move together and sometimes they don't. 10:38 I'm still waiting on that WRB spike. Hopefully, in the direction of my trade. 10:39 <aym> You are watching 3min Chart? <NihabaAshi> Right now...I'm watching the 2min chart. <pat255> k guys very slow ...low vol moves ...back to office ...ty all 10:42 <NihabaAshi> Volatility level in EuroFX still increasing. 10:46 Covered all ER2 Short @ 756.80 --> + 0.3 «« paper »» 10:48 Long ER2 @ 756.90 -> small size «« paper »» 10:49 1 contract on this Long and if I reverse...will be into a large size short position. 10:50 So far...typical first trading day price action after Easter. 11:07 exit stop moved to breakeven ER2 @ 756.90 «« paper »» 11:12 YM seems to be the only one swimming below water. 11:14 exit stop raised ER2 @ 757.00 «« paper »» I won't be doing any adds to a profitable position today... 11:17 Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 757.00 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» Mainly because its a range bound day that's dictated by the "Bill Announcements" today. 11:18 Thursday of this week is also occupied by "Bill Announcements". 11:21 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/d ocuments/b-econoday.htm These are trading days with the best chance for "range" or "choppiness". <aym> Short QM @69.7 Stop loss 70.0 11:22 <NihabaAshi> Volatility in EuroFX EC has dried up since 1110am est. 11:23 <GoodMood> hello ? Does anyone see me ? 11:24 <substanz> yes good :) 11:25 <NihabaAshi> Yes <GoodMood> ok super <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 11:35 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 755.90 -> small size «« paper »» 12:20 Just a 3 contract short position instead of the 6 contract large position... 12:21 Follow-through after the WRB looks weak and reason why I reduced the position size. May only try to get a few ticks out of this trade to go along with the size adjustment. 12:22 Instead of going for points. Still holding due to the volatility had dried up before the current WRB spike. 12:31 Volatility increasing again... 12:35 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 754.10 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 12:36 exit stop lowered ER2 @ 755.80 «« paper »» 12:37 Caught a WRB pt1 level on that 1/3 cover. 12:38 Still doubtful it will push into a WRB pt2 or pt3 price area... If volatility doesn't dry up soon...I'll dump the remainders. <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 12:44 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 753.70 --> + 2.2 «« paper »» 12:47 Volatility drying up again... Still holding 1 contract remainder and hoping to catch one more WRB Spike. Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 752.50 --> + 3.4 «« paper »» 13:03 Caught that WRB although it was a small WRB. 13:04 ER2 still dropping and volatility levels has really decreased since 1230pm est except for a few minutes aorund 1247pm est. 13:40 Meant..."volatility levels has not" decreased... 13:41 ER2 still declining on that volatility level that has maintained its paced since 1230pm est. 13:53 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 13:56 <NihabaAshi> Volatility in ER2 drying up now...if it continues doing such for the next 5mins... 14:04 Soon after that 5mins if volatility did dry up..."will" produce a WRB volatility spike. 14:05 A spike that should take it to either 750 or 748. 14:06 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 15:08 #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 16:20 <NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:41 <nico> NihabaAshi: Have a good evening. 16:44 <NihabaAshi> Thanks Nico...you 2. 16:47 Sponsors: QCharts #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) * DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Apr 17 16:47:30 2006 Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary that on a few occasions will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted above in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +7.50 +0.0000 $750.00 $0.00 Intuition Trading
One of the keys to successful intuition or intuitive trading is to understand how volatility and price action interacts because without volatility...its extremely difficult for us to reach profit targets.
Russell 2000 Emini ER2 produces volatility WRB spikes after its volatility has dried up via being in a declining state for several chart intervals.
The key is to not ignore nor miss any pattern signals that may appear when volatility has dried up to be in a good position to exploit a WRB spike or to reverse a losing position into a profitable position.
By the way...its IRS tax time for most and its also a reality check about your trading.
If you haven't been able to figure it out on your own...I strongly recommend you consider using my strategies.
Today's results shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of April...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
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