#FuturesTrades realtime trade posting journal on IRC Othernet server for full-time and part-time traders

April 2006 Trade Log Archived Trade Logs Trading Strategies

Light Crude Oil CL Eurex DAX EuroFX EC Russell Emini ER2 S&P Emini ES Nasdaq Emini NQ Mini-Sized Dow YM 10 Year T-Notes ZN

To see other trading instruments annotated charts...click here.

April 12th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, NihabaAshi is the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com strategies.

Further, you'll find below the chat room text log of realtime trades that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, you should read NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments (posted below after the trade posts) because sometimes the commentary will contain trading tips that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog.

Session Start: Wed Apr 12 09:31:34 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:31

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 746.50 -> small size 09:33

2 contracts only and may add 1 more contract if some volatility takes this higher. 09:34

<les> Long ER2 @ 746.3 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> If not...I'll reverse into a large short position.

Long ER2 @ 746.80 -> Add 09:35

Added 1 contract.

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 747.1 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

<mispe> Shorts YM @ 11172 09:36

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 747.60 --> + 0.8

<pat255> S .6 er paper 09:37

<NihabaAshi> exit stop raised ER2 @ 746.60

<mispe> Covered all YM Short @ 11176 --> - 4 09:38

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 748.1 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 09:42

exit stop raised ER2 @ 746.2 «« paper »» 09:43

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 748.60 --> + 2.1

Holding 1 contract remainder.

<les> same here :)

<NihabaAshi> Les...maybe we'll get lucky and catch a big more... 09:44

<pat255> nice niha ...

<WannaBeBOS> market is kinda thin

<pat255> out S er...dang

<les> yeah - i'm hjoping it tries to recover yesterday's losses

fill volumes r still loking good 09:45

<NihabaAshi> Hoping it can reach 750.00 price area and then stabilize before attempting to go higher.

<les> 760.4 is yest high

<jperl> ER2 at VAP 749.30 09:46

<les> exit stop raised ER2 @ 748.5 «« paper »»

nope

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 748.5 --> + 2.2 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Oil is the theme for today although I haven't seen much talk about it today especially with the pending 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report in comparison to yesterday key market discussions on the major financial networks. 10:00

-X- Welcome - to »iNEWSROOMLIVE Continuous Realtime News & Market Data 24/7. For a guide to headline colours & data, check out » http://www.inewsroom.net/info 10:03

<NihabaAshi> Volatility should pick up around 1015am est via the big institutions re-allocating their positions due to the pending 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report. 10:12

<codehead> the trade gap narrowed more than expected 10:13

<NihabaAshi> Yep...they made me "a little" bullish or not as bearish as I was yesterday :) 10:15

<WannaBeBOS> euro moved nicely this morning 10:16

<NihabaAshi> Euro is the trade of the day so far...

Nice parabolic decline followed by a steady counter-thrust back upwards. 10:17

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> In reference to EuroFX.

<WannaBeBOS> yes

<pat255> later ...office meeting ty all 10:19

<codehead> oil in 10 mins 10:20

<NihabaAshi> I'm expecting Oil to spike upwards and expecting the Eminis to follow...hoping ER2 can stabilize back above 750.00 10:25

<les> <NihabaAshi> Volatility should pick up around 1015am est via the big institutions re-allocating their positions due to the pending 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report. 10:27

<NihabaAshi> Yep...its been dropping :(

<les> nihga - is that your polite way of saying the big boys find out whats in the report before anyone else?

<WannaBeBOS> they anticipate

<NihabaAshi> No...I don't think most are cheating like that. 10:28

I hope not :)

<les> me too - i just dont trust em

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is at its best spike behavior after volatility disappears...

When it reappears...ER2 usually spikes.

<les> yep, its great when like that 10:29

<NihabaAshi> Hopefully it spikes upwards and not downwards.

<les> u still got i contract??

1

<NihabaAshi> Yes...may reverse into a 3 contract Short position.

<WannaBeBOS> i am long too

<codehead> woodie calls it "the hidden barrel report" 10:31

lol--cuz they always find barrels

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 749.2 «« paper »» 10:32

<codehead> VIAC boik--another stemmer 10:33

dang, wrong room sorry

<les> never mind ch, i understood that perfectly 10:34

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 748.50 --> + 2

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 748.50

<pdays> Covered all ER2 Short @ 748.0 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 10:36

<codehead> YM long 11165 10:37

stop 11159

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 748.70 --> - 0.2 10:38

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 748.70

<les> Long ER2 @ 749 «« paper »»

<codehead> exit YM +10

<les> Long ER2 @ 748.9 «« paper »»

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 749.4 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»

exit stop set ER2 @ 747.5 «« paper »» 10:39

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 749.30 --> + 0.6 10:41

I'm churning and not getting what I want... 10:42

Will sit and watch for a little while.

Didn't get that "parabolic price movement" I was hoping for today so far. 10:44

<les> Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 747.5 --> - 1.4 «« paper »» 10:46

:((

<aym> Short ES @ 1294.25, STOP LOSS @ 1296 10:49

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 747.20 -> large size 10:50

Crap...volatility is drying up some more. 10:53

<WannaBeBOS> pre-holiday chop 10:54

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 748.30 --> - 1.1 10:55

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 748.30

There's that volatility spike :(

Lost my profits of the day in that spike. 10:56

<codehead> nice on the reversal tho 10:59

boy, i knew to buy 11151 YM--didn't look like it was gonna lose it there 11:00

nice bounce

<aym> I don't know why ES & YM usualy have less voltality than ER2 ? 11:01

<codehead> i think ES and YM more volume 11:02

i think ER is best behaved of them

ER got near the daily uptrend line

from october

i should say russell--was looking at cash 11:03

gave a touch at yesterday's low 11:04

<aym> Thanks. I think the volume as you said is the main reason.

<NihabaAshi> I'll explain my theory in a few minutes about why ER2 is more volatile and when to expect that volatility to drop in comparison to YM and ES. 11:05

<codehead> yeah--ES is biggest trader, and sometimes moves are pretty narrow because of it

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 748.90 --> + 0.6 11:07

That ensures my day is profitable after losing my earlier profits.

Will try to stay in this Long position for the remainder of the day if ER2 allows it :)

exit stop moved to breakeven ER2 @ 748.30 11:08

It it retraces...will dump a few contracts before that trailing stop is hit. 11:09

Ok...here's my theroy about ER2 volatility...

Whenever brokerage firms see their earnings increasing which usually correlates with more investors entering the market and increase in traders thinking they can day trade... 11:10

That money is "little guy" money and is reflected more in the Russell 2000 Index instead of the Nasdaq 100. 11:11

Little guys traders tend to make things more volatile.

Whereas in comparison...ES is well followed by institutions. 11:12

YM is going the route of ES.

NQ is kind'uv stuck in the middle for now :)

<WannaBeBOS> much of ES and YM is for hedging

<NihabaAshi> Exactly.

When I saw ES volatility drop to a point where it wasn't suitable for me to trade (mid last year)... 11:14

I started moving into ER2 and EuroFX.

ER2 volatility has died again... 11:16

Looking for another spike...hopefully in my favor.

<jperl> ER2 sitting on VWAP 749.26 and oscillating around it since 10 AM this morning 11:18

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-04-12/JP ERL_014.png 11:19

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 11:26

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 750.40 --> + 2.1 11:27

<aym> Short ER2 750.5, STOP LOSS 751.5 11:28

<NihabaAshi> Broker making money today :(

When I close out my remainders...I will take a long break and then "paper trade only" this afternoon if I return to trading. 11:29

<aym> Cover 1/2 ER2 @ 748.9 11:37

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 748.50 --> + 0.2 11:38

Got a position reversal signal at 749.00 and raised my stop up to 748.50 11:39

Didn't want to continue trading...will do some personal stuff outside (finish repairing the damage fence from the winter). 11:40

Will be back later. 11:41

<aym> Exit ER2 moved to 748.5

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 12:38

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 13:50

<NihabaAshi> If the market closes near its opening price...we should have at least one good "parabolic" price movement in the first two hours of trading tomorrow... 14:54

As long as such doesn't occur in the pre-market :)

<WannaBeBOS> in the euro maybe 14:58

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 749.50 -> small size «« paper »» 15:01

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 15:02

<NihabaAshi> testing a new strategy I've had big time problems with a few months ago.

It's been shelved since until now.

<pat255> good day tp try something new... 15:03

<NihabaAshi> Help...especially since I'm in profit protection mode of my morning a.m. profits.

Help = Yep.

:)

<pat255> yep... 15:04

<NihabaAshi> Hope that's not an omen about this trade.

Ok...volatility just dried up in ER2... 15:05

Lets see what happens over the next 5 mins.

Exited ER2 Long @ 750.10 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 15:06

750.10 was a WRB level. 15:08

<WannaBeBOS> ah

makes sense now

<NihabaAshi> Didn't want to get fancy and try to capture more of the still forming WRB on the 5min chart.

<aym> WRB stands of what? 15:10

<NihabaAshi> Wide Range Body...

WRB Analysis 15:11

<aym> Thanks

<NihabaAshi> I developed it in the 80's while helping out my step-father whom was a floor trader at the time in Chicago.

Didn't really get deep into it until the mid 90's. 15:12

It branches off into many different strategies I use. 15:13

<aym> I usualy used normal candle chart. 15:14

<WannaBeBOS> yes it does

<NihabaAshi> Yes...same here...I use normal candle charts.

It's not program nor indicator...just a "perception" of analyzing Wide Range Bodies.

If your using bar charts...call it Wide Range Bars. 15:15

<aym> In some charts the thickness of candle is different. 15:16

<NihabaAshi> Go to EliteTrader.com or google it the words WRB Analysis to find more info about it.

Yes...there are different types of candlestick charts on the market. 15:17

Such as Equivolume Candlestick charts.

I played around with that for a few months a few years ago...

Got a headache :)

Eye strain.

<WannaBeBOS> lol 15:18

<NihabaAshi> I would see one wide candlestick and then a skinny one...sometimes I couldn't see the small ones between two wide ones. :)

<aym> Are you watching 5 min chart or 1 min? 15:25

<pat255> later guys ...@office...:9 15:27

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 16:14

<NihabaAshi> Just got back...take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:33

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Apr 12 16:34:06 2006 16:34

Sponsors: QCharts #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary that on a few occasions will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted above in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

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Real Money Trading versus Simulator Trading

I am often amazed at the type of ignorance and unchanging bias by traders. Such often makes me wonder if such is the main reason why most traders are unable to adapt to a changing market environment.

If you ever decide to test a unfamiliar strategy, try a new broker execution platform or having internet connection problems...use your broker simulator trading until your ready to trade with real money.

Nobody is going to laugh at you nor will you wake up in the morning feeling ashamed.

In addition, trading is no different than any other profession in that during your training...you simulate your new job and/or practice a few times prior to getting you first pay check.

My last trade of the day was via a simulator and mainly because I was testing a new strategy that in the past has caused consistent losses in back testing and real trading. Today the difference in the strategy was a new criteria involving volatility.

If I see the pattern signal again...I'll go real money trading with a small position size.

Today's results shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of April...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Exchange Traded Funds SPY, QQQQ, IWM and DIA

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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