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Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format.
However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time
permits and such will
contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my
thoughts for the trading day.
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Russell 2000 Emini ER2
Futures |
Today |
Month |
Year |
+27.40 |
+64.50 |
+1007.40 |
$2,740 |
$6,450 |
$100,740 |
FED Chairman Bernanke Speech and FOMC Minutes Meeting
Profit/Loss
Statement
One of the keys to profitable trading is to understand
the price action and one of the best ways to understand the price action is
to learn about what causes the volatility.
Volatility Analysis should give you a list of usual
culprits and today one of those culprits is the Fed Chairman.
Simply, keep a detailed schedule on your desk when
Chairman Bernanke is speaking or any of the other Board members are speaking
and wait to see if any of your favorite pattern signals appears.
Knowing when this particular type of volatility will
appear will give you 1-3 big profitable trading days per month along with
giving you clues when to add to a profitable position as shown in the chat
log below.
Key news of the day
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note:
Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price
movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or
within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and
a few
clues that's associated with the
key price action at our
key market archives.
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#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access
info...click
here. |
| Session Start: Wed Apr 11 09:30:02 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades |
* Now | talking in #futurestrades | 09:30 |
<X> | [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm |
<NihabaAshi> | I have a BEARISH bias at the open. |
| Shorts ER2 @ 819.00 -> large size | 09:31 |
<WannaBeBOS> | good entry niha | 09:32 |
<RussellDaytrade> | Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.2 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» | 09:34 |
<jperl> | ER2 1 week VWAP 817.76 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 818.00 --> + 1 | 09:35 |
<Brutus> | Long ES @ 1456 «« paper »» |
<AmazingJason> | Long ER2 @ 818.50 | 09:36 |
* Nana_CO | ----[ Covers ER2 @ 817.8 +1.5 flat ]---- |
<AmazingJason> | Long ER2 @ 817.8 -> Add | 09:37 |
<jperl> | ER2 pausing at 1 week VWAP | 09:38 |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1456.25 |
<Brutus> | Long ES @ 1455 -> Add «« paper »» | 09:40 |
<AmazingJason> | Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.90 --> - 2.5 | 09:41 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered ER2 Short @ 817.00 --> + 2 | 09:46 |
<jperl> | ER2 peak volume 817.20 |
<NihabaAshi> | Holding 2 contracts |
| Covered ER2 Short @ 815.90 --> + 3.1 | 09:48 |
<Brutus> | Long ES @ 1453.5 -> Add «« paper »» |
<NihabaAshi> | Holding 1 contract for a possible "low probability" trend development. |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1453.75 --> + 2.5 | 09:49 |
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<szubaark> | Buys NQ @ 1824 «« paper »» | 09:50 |
| exit stop set NQ @ 1821 «« paper »» | 09:52 |
<jperl> | ER2 peak volume now 816.30 | 10:00 |
| VWAP 817.40 | 10:01 |
<Brutus> | Exited all ES Long @ 1455 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» |
<RussellDaytrade> | up targets on |
<Brutus> | u not buying RD? | 10:03 |
<RussellDaytrade> | Long ER2 @ 816.5 «« paper »» |
<eminitrader> | :)) | 10:04 |
<RussellDaytrade> | not as strongly inclined to the longside B, actually waitng for a bounce to sell into |
| Exited all ER2 Long @ 816 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» | 10:05 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 10:07 |
<RussellDaytrade> | possible 818.5 if this can hold without having another bout of queasiness |
| Long ER2 @ 816.6 «« paper »» | 10:10 |
| Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.3 --> - 0.3 «« paper »» |
<szubaark> | Exited all Long NQ at 1824 --> 0 «« paper »» | 10:11 |
<jperl> | Market appears to be waiting for the EIA numbers | 10:12 |
<NihabaAshi> | If this turns into a trend day (low probability)...my 1-2 window analysis for such after the Easter Holiday was one day off :( | 10:14 |
<Brutus> | 1400/1800 Mar FOMC minutes | 10:15 |
<jperl> | Interesting seeing pictures from the NYME..... | 10:16 |
| traders just standing around waiting |
<eminitrader> | nice call szu | 10:19 |
<szubaark> | thx | 10:20 |
<NihabaAshi> | Volatility was low until that volatility spike a minute ago. |
<RussellDaytrade> | yesterday, i said 814.13, THAT is a nice call! |
<eminitrader> | didn't wait to get stopped out ...rather proactive reading the flow ...way to go |
<NihabaAshi> | Not sure if it will develop into anything especailly with the pending 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report just waiting to bring in "more volatility". | 10:21 |
<eminitrader> | es hovering near yest low ...will prolly see a bounce here |
| Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1452.25 --> + 4 | 10:22 |
| holding 3 |
<NihabaAshi> | Wish I had 3 remainders right now instead of just one contract remainder. | 10:23 |
<eminitrader> | u had a very good entry niha ...dont think it will come back there ...at least today ...prolly get a tenner on that one :) | 10:27 |
<NihabaAshi> | I was looking for a 10er yesterday and I had a good size for such. | 10:28 |
| Today I was on the light side of a large position... |
<eminitrader> | happens |
<NihabaAshi> | Reason why I only have one remainder instead of 3-4 contract remainders. | 10:29 |
<AmazingJason> | Long ER2 @ 813.60 | 10:30 |
<pdays> | Number out |
<NihabaAshi> | Oil Index, futures and ETF's powering upwards. | 10:32 |
| EuroFX EC and EurUsd not impress so far :) | 10:34 |
| They look bored. |
<eminitrader> | er2 showing a srtong downtrend as compared to es/nq | 10:37 |
<NihabaAshi> | ER2 is feeling guilty after kicking my butt on Monday... |
<eminitrader> | he he he | 10:38 |
<NihabaAshi> | It's giving me some easy opportunities yesterday and today. |
<AmazingJason> | Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.8 --> - 0.8 | 10:44 |
<Nana_CO> | ER to fill gap from Apr3? | 10:48 |
<NihabaAshi> | It has the volatility now for such...if it's going to do it...today's the day for such. |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1449.25 --> + 7 | 10:49 |
| holding 2 |
<NihabaAshi> | Nice |
<eminitrader> | thx niha |
<NihabaAshi> | Starting to look like you've been hanging out with Jazz. |
<Nana_CO> | If so would also be 23% retracement of the low from Mar 5 |
<eminitrader> | jazz ? |
<PapaJon> | Jazz .. used to visit here... is awesome trader | 10:50 |
<NihabaAshi> | The guy (former member) that ritually made 5 to 10 point trading day's in ES. |
<eminitrader> | k thx pj |
| wish i cld do that consistantly | 10:51 |
| my avg is 3 pts this yr..on a daily basis i mean | 10:52 |
<NihabaAshi> | We're now in the s/r zone of that April 3rd GAP. | 10:54 |
<eminitrader> | Es gao is 1433 ...long way to go | 10:55 |
<NihabaAshi> | Geesh...that volatility spike a minute ago pushed through several price levels like a hot knife in butter. | 10:56 |
| Had Oil not made that push upwards... | 10:58 |
| There would have been more of a "Flight to Quality" in Treasury Futures. | 10:59 |
<jperl> | this mornings trades.... | 11:05 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-11/JP ERL_017.png | 11:06 |
<NihabaAshi> | FED Alerts Today: 1pm est Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks and 2pm est FOMC Minutes Meeting | 11:18 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 11:19 |
<NihabaAshi> | Welcome back Venedom | 11:21 |
| :) |
<venedom> | ty gm everyone |
* codehead_afk | is now known as codehead | 11:28 |
<RussellDaytrade> | built and sold long positions, now flat, up 280 less comm | 11:52 |
* Looking | up thn user info... | 11:53 |
<NihabaAshi> | I see the counter-thrust upwards weakening around 813.50 | 11:55 |
<RussellDaytrade> | 818.86 | 11:56 |
<eminitrader> | 816.50 max for today....for this trend to hold ...dont see price break thru that level as of now | 11:57 |
| prolly see a pullback 814-815.30 level | 11:58 |
<jperl> | ER2 VWAP 814.08 |
<RussellDaytrade> | as it climbs farther, if it climbs farther, the probabilities of full up targets fullfilling increase. | 11:59 |
<Nana_CO> | thanks, jperl...much appreciated :) |
<jperl> | yw |
<eminitrader> | as per my read 816.50 is considered normal ...now breaking that wld make me think brefore selling again | 12:00 |
| only a bernarke splke wld do that today...if at all | 12:01 |
<RussellDaytrade> | great short signal yesterday when mkt didn't gain traction on that BO |
<eminitrader> | bottom line - never know ..just go with the moment | 12:02 |
<RussellDaytrade> | yes, i'm expecting that my target projections will fulfill off the back of the mkt reaction to burnwanke |
<Brutus> | Shorts ES @ 1451.5 «« paper »» | 12:04 |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1451.50 -> Add | 12:09 |
| will add a 3 lot 52.75 if it gets there.. | 12:10 |
| be back t1 for this lot 49.50 | 12:14 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 12:31 |
<pat255> | hi all... | 12:52 |
| @office these days ..:( dang seminars etc |
<Brutus> | Covered all ES Short @ 1451.5 --> 0 «« paper »» | 12:56 |
<eminitrader> | Covered all ES Short @ 1452.25 --> + 3.25 | 13:09 |
<pat255> | hi em u da man... |
<Brutus> | Shorts ES @ 1453.5 «« paper »» | 13:10 |
<eminitrader> | thx...sorry u missed that trade pat |
<pat255> | yes em @office these days ...:( |
| wish they could just send mucheck very 2 weeks & I trade from home .lol |
<Brutus> | exit stop set ES @ 1455 «« paper »» | 13:12 |
<eminitrader> | :) |
<RussellDaytrade> | setting up nicely for an acceleration into my targets | 13:13 |
<Brutus> | exit stop set ES @ 1453.75 «« paper »» | 13:30 |
<pat255> | 22 minutes til FOMC minutes | 13:38 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 13:43 |
<jperl> | ER2 @ 1st StdDev of VWAP 816.37 | 13:45 |
<Brutus> | cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» | 13:47 |
| Will wait for FOMC |
<NihabaAshi> | Short ER2 ADD @ 815.40 -> small size (2 contracts)
| 13:55 |
<pat255> | niha report coming .. |
<NihabaAshi> | Yep...worth the risk due to the increasing volatility. |
<pat255> | & niha takes a position .. |
| k... but u are right .. | 13:56 |
<NihabaAshi> | Easier to reverse a loser when I'm wrong in comparison to low volatility price action. |
<pat255> | i c good point .. |
<NihabaAshi> |
Covered ER2 ADD @ 815.00 -> +0.40
|
<Brutus> | Covered all ES Short @ 1451.25 --> + 2.25 «« paper »» |
<NihabaAshi> | Still holding my 1 contract remainder from the original Short position. |
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<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1451.50 | 13:59 |
| Exited all ES Long @ 1450.50 --> - 1 | 14:00 |
<Brutus> | Long ES @ 1449.25 «« paper »» |
<eminitrader> | that was fast |
<NihabaAshi> | Short ER2 ADD @ 813.70 -> small size (2 contracts)
|
<Brutus> | exit stop set ES @ 1448 «« paper »» | 14:01 |
<RussellDaytrade> | Long ER2 @ 813.6 «« paper »» |
<Brutus> | Exited all ES Long @ 1448 --> - 1.25 «« paper »» |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1448 |
| Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1450 --> + 2 | 14:02 |
| fast or what |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered ER2 ADD @ 812.50 -> +1.20
| 14:04 |
| Still holding the original remainder position. |
| I expected more follow-through below but it spooked me out early with the weird jumpy price action. | 14:05 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1449.50 --> + 1.5 |
| Exited ES Long @ 1448 --> 0 | 14:07 |
| Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1448 |
| looks like a bit early on this sell | 14:09 |
| Covered all ES Short @ 1448 --> 0 | 14:11 |
<NihabaAshi> | Had it not been for that counter-upthrust price action prior to the recent drop... | 14:16 |
<Brutus> | Long ES @ 1447.5 «« paper »» |
<NihabaAshi> | I would have easily reached my 809.60 WRB pt level for the remaining contract. |
<Brutus> | exit stop set ES @ 1446 «« paper »» | 14:18 |
<NihabaAshi> | There's some support here at current price levels. | 14:19 |
<jperl> | ER2 peak volume now 811.80 | 14:22 |
<Brutus> | Exited all ES Long @ 1446 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» | 14:35 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 808.90 --> + 10.1 | 14:45 |
<eminitrader> | nice one :)) |
<pat255> | gl vvn niha ... |
<asuni> | great niha :-) |
<NihabaAshi> | Thanks and I'm done for the day. | 14:46 |
| Just found out spouse is going out for the evening with her girlfriends...leaving me to take care of the toddler and infant till 11pm. |
| See all later...going to get some extra rest. | 14:47 |
<eminitrader> | well u have fun .. |
* NihabaAshi | is now known as NihabaAshi_away |
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<pat255> | niha read the fomc meetings right ..so many times .. |
<eminitrader> | yep | 14:48 |
<pat255> | lot of folks stand aside on fomc niha makes money lol | 14:51 |
<jperl> | done for the day.....trades here... | 15:12 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-11/JP ERL_018.png |
<RussellDaytrade> | Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.2 --> - 1.4 «« paper »» | 15:28 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 16:04 |
<WannaBeBOS> | nice trading today niha | 16:05 |
* DisconnectedSession | Close: Wed Apr 11 16:45:35 2007 | 16:45 |
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Google:
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#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched
via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been
said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type
in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed
it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated
with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.
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