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#FuturesTrades April 9th Wednesday 2008 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+3.40	+75.20	+1170.60
$340	$7,520	$117,060

Profitable Trade

1111am - 1125am est

Losing Trade

1039am - 1047am est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Time Zone Info Chat Log below is eastern standard time (est) - New York City, U.S.A and/or Montréal, Canada time zone.

Session Start: Wed Apr 09 09:27:06 2008 Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:27

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<anglo> gm

<drt> gm all 09:28

<talickca> gm

<lumenPharmer> gm

<PapaJon> gm all 09:29

<Pat255> gm all 09:32

<futurible> gm all

<Spartan> Shorts ES @ 1369.75 -> small size «« paper »» 09:36

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1370 09:37

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1369.50 «« paper »» 09:38

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1367 --> + 3 09:41

<Spartan> Covered all ES Short @ 1366.75 --> + 3 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1366.50 --> + 3 «« paper »» 09:42

<eminitrader> expecting a huge down move today

<szubaark> can u explain Why?

<eminitrader> dont expect a close above todays open that is 1369 ..as per the daily pa 09:43

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1365.50 «« paper »» 09:48

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1365 --> + 5 09:49

<szubaark> Does look Weak right at Open

nice emini

<eminitrader> thx szu...yest pa ..shows a weak range reversable bar...which means a high probability of a huge move... 09:50

in days like these mrkt or rather the ES close is usually below the open... 09:51

<Spartan> good day to ride the opening reversal 09:52

right?

<eminitrader> one of the reasons a sell above the open on such days give some space to hld during the volatility caused by noise

so expect some res 1368-69 area

hope this explains it szu :))szu 09:55

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1363.75 --> + 1.75 «« paper »» 09:56

<Andy> factory orders 4 min 09:59

<silo> Shorts ER2 @ 710.40 -> small size «« paper »» 10:00

<Andy> oops..that was one min 10:02

<silo> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 708.50 --> + 1.9 «« paper »»

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 708.60 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 10:04

<NihabaAshi> weak support area here 10:07

<KN-ES> Long ES @ 1362.5 10:08

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1362.75 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> Exited 3/4 ES Long @ 1363.5 --> + 1

<ItalianSharp> isnt bernanke supposed to be speaking right now? 10:09

<Charles_trad> be careful with buys

still no volume

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 709.20 -> medium size 10:10

intuition

<KN-ES> Exited 2C ES Long @ 1364 --> + 1.5

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1363.75 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:11

<Spartan> Shorts ES @ 1363.75 -> small size «« paper »»

<KN-ES> Exited ES Long @ 1363.50 --> + 1 10:12

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1363.50

s.l 65

<NihabaAshi> I'm slowly losing my support from other key markets...

<KN-ES> Covered ES Short @ 1364 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1364

<NihabaAshi> Thus, ER2 will soon be on its own if the support gets weak.

<Spartan> seems like es should hit 1360ish at some point 10:14

<KN-ES> Exited ES Long @ 1363.50 --> - 0.5 10:15

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1363.50

s.l 65

Covered ES Short @ 1363.50 --> 0 10:16

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1363.50

<silo> Long ER2 @ 709.20 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> should go up

s.l 62

<silo> that's a very precise stop loss there kn

.62? 10:17

haha

<KN-ES> silo :)

<NihabaAshi> Support from other key markets just showed up but still looks weak :(

<KN-ES> should hava a spike

have. 10:18

<anglo> KN is an X-man

<NihabaAshi> Agree...volatility has been contracted for awhile now

However, the price action smells like Bernanke is still talking :(

<silo> Long ER2 @ 709.60 -> Add «« paper »» 10:19

<KN-ES> thats the only thing he is doing now a days :)

<NihabaAshi> :)

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1364.50 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> WRB profit target reached for me on this trade

<KN-ES> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1364.50 --> + 1 10:20

Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1365 --> + 1.5

66.5 next i guess

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 709.70 --> + 0.5 10:21

:(

<KN-ES> Exited ES Long @ 1364.25 --> + 0.75 10:22

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1364.25

s.l 65

.25

Covered ES Short @ 1364.50 --> - 0.25

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1364.50

<NihabaAshi> I was hoping this wouldn't make a move until AFTER the 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:24

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1365 -> Add

<silo> Exited all ER2 Long @ 710.70 --> + 2.6 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> nice trade silo

<silo> that's with 2 contracts :)

<KN-ES> Exited ES Long @ 1364.25 --> - 0.25 10:25

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1364.25

s.l 65.25

brb 10:26

<anglo> there are lots of stops at 58-60...they rarely are left untouched.

<jperl> done for now.....P/L here... 10:27

<jsbach--> question: i am looking at CL right now. should I be in 05-08?

<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-04-09/JP ERL9.png

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1363 --> + 2 10:28

<KN-ES> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1363.25 --> + 1

Covered ES Short @ 1361 --> + 3.25 10:30

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1361

<silo> market out of sync

<KN-ES> Exited ES Long @ 1363 --> + 2

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1363

<silo> be careful

<KN-ES> tying dax and es at the same time, creating trouble with es 10:31

<anglo> fast markey

<jsbach--> wow

look at crude

<anglo> delays in datafeeds

<KN-ES> dax is working fine, need two more eyes

<silo> crude/gas inventory down

<NihabaAshi> Eminis and Eurex just sitting there trying HARD to digest the crude news 10:32

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1362 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> Covered 3/4 ES Short @ 1361.50 --> + 1.5

s.l 63.5

brb 10:33

<NihabaAshi> weak support right now

<KN-ES> Covered ES Short @ 1362.50 --> + 0.5 10:34

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1362.50

s.l 60.50

<jsbach--> long ES 1361.50 paper trade 10:37

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 708.30 -> small size

Looks like a sucker punch :( 10:38

Covered ER2 Short @ 709.60 --> - 1.3

Long ER2 @ 709.70 -> small size 10:39

oh oh...volatility just flatlined

Exited ER2 Long @ 708.70 --> - 1 10:40

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 708.70

medium size 10:41

<Spartan> Covered all ES Short @ 1361.75 --> + 2 «« paper »» 10:42

<szubaark> right now its like fighting Pacquia, unorthodox style

<NihabaAshi> :)

<silo> you watch boxing?

<NihabaAshi> Agree...I'm going to the sidelines and will watch for awhile after I close this Short position. 10:43

Price action becoming more and more difficult after that big drop.

<silo> yeah 10:44

market still out of sync

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 710.00 --> - 1.3 10:47

It's creeping...can easily do a big volatility spike in either direction. 10:48

<KN-ES> Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1364 --> + 1.5

<NihabaAshi> Will just sit and watch for awhile

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1363.75 «« paper »» 10:50

<lumenPharmer> they will try and hold 1360 on ES, 30pt range last 5 days 10:51

<KN-ES> Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1363.50 --> + 1

<lumenPharmer> if 1360 breaks should get 30 pts down

1390 breaks we get 30 up 10:52

<KN-ES> we may see 66.50 again b4 it breaks 60 10:53

<lumenPharmer> light volume crapola ;)

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1363.75 «« paper »» 10:54

<lumenPharmer> and first break of 60 can be a trap for shorts in this light volume

<szubaark> yup.. just crap Price Action

Covered all Short ES at 1363.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:55

<lumenPharmer> if fed wants it up, it goes up fast on light volume

<KN-ES> Exited 2C ES Long @ 1364.50 --> + 2 10:57

<PapaJon> lumenPharmer ... are you into solar energy? 11:01

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1364.25 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> Exited 2C ES Long @ 1365 --> + 2.5

<szubaark> nice KN

<KN-ES> thanks

Exited 1C ES Long @ 1365.50 --> + 3 11:03

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChat Room.htm 11:10

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 710.40 -> small size 11:11

WRB profit target reached 11:13

Key markets not in sync right now 11:14

<LonelyTrader> Short GBPUSD 1.9744 SL 1.9815 TP 1.9660 <<<paper>>>

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 709.10 --> + 1.3 11:18

<KN-ES> cool 11:19

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1362.25 --> + 2 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> add 62.50 11:22

<NihabaAshi> weak support here

<KN-ES> Long ES @ 1360.50 11:24

s.l 58

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 707.20 --> + 3.2 11:25

<KN-ES> nice trade

<lumenPharmer> wtg 11:26

<szubaark> Nice Niha.

<NihabaAshi> Especially since it gets me profitable for the day although I wasn't in a deep hole...

It's just that I missed the initial drop out of the gate that was a valid pattern signal for me.

<Pat255> vn n 11:27

<NihabaAshi> Then once I was ready to trade...I enter into the middle of that flat line volatility price action :(

Had to step back a little and wait for a valid pattern signal to get me in the green.

<szubaark> i wonder if eminitrader is still holding Short from the Open. 11:29

<Spartan> prolly like 20 contracts

lol

<Pat255> he was correct this am his bias 11:30

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 706 11:34

Exited all ER2 Long @ 705.5 --> - 0.5 11:35

<NihabaAshi> szu...I'm sure he's still short considering it fits how he trades.

He even added to the position when he had a few remainders left of the original position. 11:36

<Spartan> any open shorts? If so congrats! 11:37

<eminitrader> guys minr supp 1355 ...esxit some here if u r still short 11:40

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 12:02

<LonelyTrader> Lowering SL to breakeven on GBPUSD short 12:08

<NihabaAshi> Geeesh...another weak support 12:23

Long ER2 @ 701.60 -> small size 12:24

This support has gotten stronger 12:26

<Pat255> later guys ..ty all...back to office

<szubaark> ES 5 minute formed a White Hammer Line, for you candlestick buffs

<NihabaAshi> Key markets involved...

HOpefully it doesn't do one of those quick retraces to pick off trailing stops to only go higher :(

<szubaark> That small Volatility spike fizzled quickly :( 12:29

<NihabaAshi> Come on...move one more tick higher 12:31

Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 702.80 --> + 1.2

tightning up my trailing stop...key markets not in sync any more. 12:33

<LonelyTrader> Covered GBPUSD 1.9744 +0

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 702.00 --> + 0.4 12:48

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 12:50

<codehead> long YM 12490 <paper> 12:53

stop 12479 <paper>

hm, not looking too perky... 12:54

stopped out -11 <paper> 12:55

there's a geometric level at 12461, .500 retrace... but i'd like to see more there 12:56

so far YM tapped a symmetric wave target at 12470... 13:01

oil over 112 13:02

<jsbach--> new record i believe

<ItalianSharp> euro approaching 1.5900 again...it may get over 60 today or tomorrow 13:05

it all looked too nice to be true lately...with many traders talking about rally, strong dollar, falling commodity prices, etc... 13:06

LOL

<codehead> rats, wanted a scalp around that .500 at 12461, got to 63 on a quick move and i couldn't nab it--popped 20 in a flash 13:07

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChat Room.htm 13:13

<LonelyTrader> @ItalianSharp: to early to tell on what the majors will do viz USD. But I hope with price on the majors key levels, we will see the current levels of volatility continue. 13:15

<ItalianSharp> i hope the euro gets hammered at some point because it really sucks to trade US futures if you are european 13:16

<LonelyTrader> Should see a surge in majors against the USD after the G7 meeting...methinks

<szubaark> Italian, why it sucks? 13:17

<ItalianSharp> one year ago $1,000 were worth Euro 769 13:18

today, the same $1,000 are worth Euro 628 13:19

that's a big differencew

<szubaark> yes, i guess you could live in Romania or something

<ItalianSharp> basically, if your salary is USD denominated and you have to convert to Euros, you've just had a 15-20% wage reduction in one year 13:20

that SUCKS

and i hate bush for this 13:21

hopefully the new president will fix a few things in america

including a stronger greenback

<LonelyTrader> Expectations for a 25 basis point cut from the Fed are steady today as are expectations of one more cut later in the summer to a terminal 1.75%. Fed hawk Fisher is on the tape saying the FOMC should do the minimum to restore financial order, but he is a distinct minority in that regard if recent FOMC votes are any indication.The dollar is steady in the wake of the Fisher comments, consolidating its losses at 1.5842 and 101.67. (1744 GMT) 13:44

<silo> interesting, openEcry's data is actually faster than tradestation's 13:56

hey whoever recommended openEcry to me, thanks man 14:20

i'm looking at their demo platform

it's so nice

<futurible> Long ER2 @ 698.90 «« paper »» 14:39

<szubaark> we are in a downtrend, any Longs for me will be Scalps. 14:52

<ItalianSharp> looks like a long squeeze here 14:56

<codehead> YM got within 2 ticks of retesting the low, which was two ticks off .500 retrace--keeps bouncing pretty quickly off that area 15:16

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChat Room.htm 15:19

<jperl> done for today....P/L here.... 15:25

http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-04-09/JP ERL10.png

<Pepe> nice JPERL 15:26

<jperl> tx

<Brutus> http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={862f4 516-fa50-4a00-8c90-55fed0701d11} 16:00

<codehead> wow, Ym only down 8 on the day now 16:15

<werner> gn all 16:30

<Brutus> gn gents 16:57

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information they can't get from broker statements nor statistics. Also, mimicking the trades by others is not recommended without their permission. More info at www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChat Room.htm 17:22

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Apr 10 00:00:00 2008 18:03

Trading Edge:
Strategies
If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

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#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.