#FuturesTrades realtime trade posting journal on IRC Othernet server for full-time and part-time traders

April 2006 Trade Log Archived Trade Logs Trading Strategies

Light Crude Oil CL Eurex DAX EuroFX EC Russell Emini ER2 S&P Emini ES Nasdaq Emini NQ Mini-Sized Dow YM 10 Year T-Notes ZN

To see other trading instruments annotated charts...click here.

April 4th Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, NihabaAshi is the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com strategies.

Further, you'll find below the chat room text log of realtime trades that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, you should read NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments (posted below after the trade posts) because sometimes the commentary will contain trading tips that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog.

Session Start: Tue Apr 04 09:23:56 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:23

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 09:31

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 763.20 -> small size 09:44

Intuition trade...no pattern signal.

Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 761.70 --> + 1.5 09:46

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 763.10

<mispe> Long YM @ 11187 09:50

Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 11193 --> + 6 09:51

<NihabaAshi> Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 763.10 --> + 0.1 09:52

<mispe> Exited Remainder YM Long @ 11203 --> + 16

Shorts YM @ 11200 09:54

Covered all YM Short @ 11205 --> - 5 09:55

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 764.70 -> large size 10:00

This is a position trade and hopefully I can hold it until the close.

<mispe> Shorts YM @ 11221 10:10

Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 11215 --> + 6 10:13

Covered Remainder YM Short @ 11221 --> 0 10:20

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 10:43

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 762.50 --> - 2.2 11:07

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 762.50

This position reversal is also a "position trade". Hopefully it can be held into the close. 11:11

If not...I'll go back to day trading and spend the next two days making back the losses :(

Covered ER2 Short @ 764.10 --> - 1.6 11:32

Position trading didn't go so well and I thought I picked a good day for such that didn't contain key economic reports. 11:33

Long ER2 @ 764.70 -> large size 11:34

Back to day trading for the next few trading days.

Exited all ER2 Long @ 767.10 --> + 2.4 11:45

I'm gonna take a break and review/study my two losing position trades to see if I did something wrong in my trade managment. 11:46

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 768.10 -> large size 13:16

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 768.00 --> + 0.1 13:24

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 767.30 -> large size 13:27

Covered all ER2 Short @ 766.90 --> + 0.4 13:52

So far today...everytime ER2 volatility dried up...a WRB was produced in the next few minutes (within 5mins). 14:09

ER2 volatility has now dried up. 14:10

It did the same in my last Short and was the reason why I dumped it.

Seconds later it spiked upwards.

It just did it again. 14:14

Weird. 14:15

<codehead> nutty day

<NihabaAshi> I'm beginning to wonder with ER2 making all those record new highs if it "attracted" the attention of more institutional players. 14:16

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 14:19

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 769.40 -> large size 14:22

Weird price movement...will be watching this thpe of price action closely for the next few trading days to see if there's something we should be paying attention too.

Yet, its powering through price leverls on 8-10 contracts... 14:23

Nothing institutional about that??? 14:24

Will study my times and sales and live recordings later tonight.

<WannaBeBOS> i very much agree 14:25

its like summertime

<NihabaAshi> If my suspicions is correct...my Long position should reach a 770.00 price level or at least within a tick or so. 14:26

Volatility has dried up again.

<WannaBeBOS> niha, do you have any theory as to why this market is so weird? choppy? 14:27

<NihabaAshi> I've been trying to figure that out since two weeks before that last Quadruple Witching week. 14:28

Once I find the answer...I plan to load the boat with some very big position sizes :)

<WannaBeBOS> i sure would like to know 14:30

either of one: we are going to have a huge, sustained move for a period of time, or 2) people are moving out of ER as a trading vehicle

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 768.60 -> Add

<WannaBeBOS> i suspect its the first. but i have no idea right now

<GoodMood> why should ER2 go up if people move out of it ? 14:31

<WannaBeBOS> ER2 is dominated by specs. unlike the ES which is used for hedging to a great degree. so if the specs decided to change vehicles, its over 14:32

<GoodMood> specs = ? 14:33

<WannaBeBOS> speculators

traders if you will

<GoodMood> like us

<WannaBeBOS> yeah

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 767.80 --> - 1.6 14:34

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 767.80

Goodmood look at me for example...I was trading ER2 very heavily for many months... 14:35

Than I slowly begin to move out of it into EuroFX EC.

It's possibly there's a changing of the guard sort'uv speak occurring in ER2. 14:36

<WannaBeBOS> great example

<GoodMood> because of volatility issues or because of a vanishing edge ?

<NihabaAshi> Volatility issues.

EC is becoming more predictable whereas ER2 is becoming less predicatable.

<GoodMood> ok 14:37

<NihabaAshi> What I mean by predicatability is that there's more follow-throug to profit targets after entering a position.

<GoodMood> ptx with x > 1

<NihabaAshi> Geesh...what's up with ER2 now. 14:38

Lately, I get nailed for a big loss and just sit tight and ride the next trade and make it all back again...

Crazy.

<codehead> i was about to short YM with a close stop above hod, but looked at spx and it scared me, looked back and Ym had dumped 20 14:39

sheesh

<NihabaAshi> I think for the remainder of the week I'm going to make most of my trades in EuroFX EC and just watch/study ER2 to determine if its the time for me to start making most of my trades in another trading instrument where the volatility is more predicatable. 14:42

Volatility dried up again...time to dump this trade. 14:50

Covered ER2 Short @ 766.30 --> + 1.5

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 766.30

It's gonna spike...but which way :( 14:51

Long ER2 @ 765.80 -> Add 15:00

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 767.00 --> + 1.2 15:10

I'm still waiting to dump my position at either a profit or loss into the next volatility spike. 15:15

Haven't gotten one eventhough I needed to cover that ADD at a profit to help offset a prior loss.

Exited all ER2 Long @ 768.00 --> + 1.7 15:24

Ok...I was able to catch that spike and I'm done for the trading day.

<codehead> nice

<WannaBeBOS> nice one 15:25

nihaba = mr. patience :)

<NihabaAshi> Will be spending some extra time tonight reviewing a lot of stuff because I "feel" there's someting going on with ER2 that should be able to be exploited.

<WannaBeBOS> if you find it, i would like to know...lol 15:29

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY) 15:31

<codehead> nutty day 15:47

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:09

* Disconnected Session Close: Tue Apr 04 16:28:26 2006

Sponsors: QCharts #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary that on a few occasions will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted above in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

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Russell 2000 Index Volatility

Trading the Russell 2000 Index via its Emini ER2 consistently profitably requires an understanding of its volatility.

Further, as a price action only trader (no indicators) you need to measure that volatility.

One of the best ways I know (I'm sure there's other price action methods out there) is to compare either its volume, price pace or pattern analysis that involves WRB.

In addition, when using its volume or price pace...I like to compare it to another volatile trading instrument called the CME EuroFX EC futures.

Without going into in-depth details...all you need to do is watch and study the ER2 and EC side by side in realtime price action to see how volatility flows from one to the other to understand their relationship.

Simply, I look for trade signals in ER2 only when there's low volatility in either ER2 or EC.

Therefore, I'm using the lack of volatility as warning sign that a pattern signal may soon appear...prior to the volatility increasing again.

Today's results shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of April...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Exchange Traded Funds SPY, QQQQ, IWM and DIA

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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	Session Start: Tue Apr 04 09:23:56 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now	talking in #futurestrades	09:23
<X>	[NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm
	#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)	09:31
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 763.20 -> small size	09:44
	Intuition trade...no pattern signal.
	Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 761.70 --> + 1.5	09:46
	exit stop lowered ER2 @ 763.10
<mispe>	Long YM @ 11187	09:50
	Exited 1/2 YM Long @ 11193 --> + 6	09:51
<NihabaAshi>	Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 763.10 --> + 0.1	09:52
<mispe>	Exited Remainder YM Long @ 11203 --> + 16
	Shorts YM @ 11200	09:54
	Covered all YM Short @ 11205 --> - 5	09:55
<NihabaAshi>	Long ER2 @ 764.70 -> large size	10:00
	This is a position trade and hopefully I can hold it until the close.
<mispe>	Shorts YM @ 11221	10:10
	Covered 1/2 YM Short @ 11215 --> + 6	10:13
	Covered Remainder YM Short @ 11221 --> 0	10:20
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)	10:43
<NihabaAshi>	Exited ER2 Long @ 762.50 --> - 2.2	11:07
	Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 762.50
	This position reversal is also a "position trade". Hopefully it can be held into the close.	11:11
	If not...I'll go back to day trading and spend the next two days making back the losses :(
	Covered ER2 Short @ 764.10 --> - 1.6	11:32
	Position trading didn't go so well and I thought I picked a good day for such that didn't contain key economic reports.	11:33
	Long ER2 @ 764.70 -> large size	11:34
	Back to day trading for the next few trading days.
	Exited all ER2 Long @ 767.10 --> + 2.4	11:45
	I'm gonna take a break and review/study my two losing position trades to see if I did something wrong in my trade managment.	11:46
* NihabaAshi	is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 768.10 -> large size	13:16
<NihabaAshi>	Covered all ER2 Short @ 768.00 --> + 0.1	13:24
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 767.30 -> large size	13:27
	Covered all ER2 Short @ 766.90 --> + 0.4	13:52
	So far today...everytime ER2 volatility dried up...a WRB was produced in the next few minutes (within 5mins).	14:09
	ER2 volatility has now dried up.	14:10
	It did the same in my last Short and was the reason why I dumped it.
	Seconds later it spiked upwards.
	It just did it again.	14:14
	Weird.	14:15
<codehead>	nutty day
<NihabaAshi>	I'm beginning to wonder with ER2 making all those record new highs if it "attracted" the attention of more institutional players.	14:16
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)	14:19
<NihabaAshi>	Long ER2 @ 769.40 -> large size	14:22
	Weird price movement...will be watching this thpe of price action closely for the next few trading days to see if there's something we should be paying attention too.
	Yet, its powering through price leverls on 8-10 contracts...	14:23
	Nothing institutional about that???	14:24
	Will study my times and sales and live recordings later tonight.
<WannaBeBOS>	i very much agree	14:25
	its like summertime
<NihabaAshi>	If my suspicions is correct...my Long position should reach a 770.00 price level or at least within a tick or so.	14:26
	Volatility has dried up again.
<WannaBeBOS>	niha, do you have any theory as to why this market is so weird? choppy?	14:27
<NihabaAshi>	I've been trying to figure that out since two weeks before that last Quadruple Witching week.	14:28
	Once I find the answer...I plan to load the boat with some very big position sizes :)
<WannaBeBOS>	i sure would like to know	14:30
	either of one: we are going to have a huge, sustained move for a period of time, or 2) people are moving out of ER as a trading vehicle
<NihabaAshi>	Long ER2 @ 768.60 -> Add
<WannaBeBOS>	i suspect its the first. but i have no idea right now
<GoodMood>	why should ER2 go up if people move out of it ?	14:31
<WannaBeBOS>	ER2 is dominated by specs. unlike the ES which is used for hedging to a great degree. so if the specs decided to change vehicles, its over	14:32
<GoodMood>	specs = ?	14:33
<WannaBeBOS>	speculators
	traders if you will
<GoodMood>	like us
<WannaBeBOS>	yeah
<NihabaAshi>	Exited ER2 Long @ 767.80 --> - 1.6	14:34
	Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 767.80
	Goodmood look at me for example...I was trading ER2 very heavily for many months...	14:35
	Than I slowly begin to move out of it into EuroFX EC.
	It's possibly there's a changing of the guard sort'uv speak occurring in ER2.	14:36
<WannaBeBOS>	great example
<GoodMood>	because of volatility issues or because of a vanishing edge ?
<NihabaAshi>	Volatility issues.
	EC is becoming more predictable whereas ER2 is becoming less predicatable.
<GoodMood>	ok	14:37
<NihabaAshi>	What I mean by predicatability is that there's more follow-throug to profit targets after entering a position.
<GoodMood>	ptx with x > 1
<NihabaAshi>	Geesh...what's up with ER2 now.	14:38
	Lately, I get nailed for a big loss and just sit tight and ride the next trade and make it all back again...
	Crazy.
<codehead>	i was about to short YM with a close stop above hod, but looked at spx and it scared me, looked back and Ym had dumped 20	14:39
	sheesh
<NihabaAshi>	I think for the remainder of the week I'm going to make most of my trades in EuroFX EC and just watch/study ER2 to determine if its the time for me to start making most of my trades in another trading instrument where the volatility is more predicatable.	14:42
	Volatility dried up again...time to dump this trade.	14:50
	Covered ER2 Short @ 766.30 --> + 1.5
	Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 766.30
	It's gonna spike...but which way :(	14:51
	Long ER2 @ 765.80 -> Add	15:00
	Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 767.00 --> + 1.2	15:10
	I'm still waiting to dump my position at either a profit or loss into the next volatility spike.	15:15
	Haven't gotten one eventhough I needed to cover that ADD at a profit to help offset a prior loss.
	Exited all ER2 Long @ 768.00 --> + 1.7	15:24
	Ok...I was able to catch that spike and I'm done for the trading day.
<codehead>	nice
<WannaBeBOS>	nice one	15:25
	nihaba = mr. patience :)
<NihabaAshi>	Will be spending some extra time tonight reviewing a lot of stuff because I "feel" there's someting going on with ER2 that should be able to be exploited.
<WannaBeBOS>	if you find it, i would like to know...lol	15:29
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY)	15:31
<codehead>	nutty day	15:47
<NihabaAshi>	Take care all and see all tomorrow.	16:09
* Disconnected	Session Close: Tue Apr 04 16:28:26 2006