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Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format.
However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time
permits and such will
contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my
thoughts for the trading day.
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Russell 2000 Emini ER2
Futures |
Today |
Month |
Year |
+20.60 |
+19.20 |
+962.10 |
$2,060 |
$1,920 |
$96,210 |
Trend Days via Geopolitical Events
Profit/Loss
Statement
Today was an excellent example of how geopolitical
events, surprising economic numbers can cause a trend day (up or down).
Further, I was very surprised at how many traders
brushed aside these events without trying to exploit them or they seemed very
shocked at the strength of the trend.
Technical traders were either shorting or waiting for a
price pullback to get Long in comparison to the traders already Long the
prior trading day due to bullish geopolitical events and bullish price action
in other key markets.
Simply, when you look at the big picture...you must see
much more than just your trading instrument to exploit trend days.
As for my own trading, I held 4 contracts overnight as
Longs to exploit the improving geopolitical events between Iran and Britain
along with the fact that Oil looked stabled (not going higher), Gold was
bullish and the late afternoon price rally in the Eminis.
In addition, there were no pending key economic reports
for today at 0830am est to have impact on my overnight position.
Simply, the swing trade as an overnight hold had very
little risk and the reward was dependent upon no retracement prior to the
10am est Pending Home Sales report.
Key news of the day
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note:
Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price
movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or
within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and
a few
clues that's associated with the
key price action at our
key market archives.
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#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access
info...click
here. |
| Session Start: Tue Apr 03 09:00:29 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades |
* Now | talking in #futurestrades | 09:00 |
<X> | [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm |
* subq | market profile charts for today | 09:16 |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 3/MP_ER2_S2.png | 09:17 |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 3/MP_ES_S2.png |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 3/MP_NQ_S2.png |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 3/MP_YM_S2.png |
<NihabaAshi> | I'm still holding my overnight Long position from yesterday's entries soon after ER2 reopen after 4:30pm est... | 09:22 |
<PapaJon> | gm all | 09:23 |
| nice one niha |
<NihabaAshi> | Long with 4 contracts via 1 @ 809.20 and 3 @ 809.00 |
| I held those contracts for the following reasons... |
| The low volatility conditions expected for the trading week, no Tuesday key economic reports at 0830am est and things "improving" between Iran and Britain about the Hostage situation that has been putting concerns on the Oil Markets. | 09:24 |
<asuni> | gm all | 09:28 |
<pat255> | gm all | 09:31 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited ER2 Long @ 812.30 --> +
3.30 | 09:32 |
| Holding 3 contracts | 09:33 |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1440.50 | 09:35 |
<NihabaAshi> | Equalized volatility across the board = Price noise and tight range. | 09:39 |
<Brutus> | 1000/1400 Feb Pending Home Sales -4.1% |
<base> | re |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 09:42 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited ER2 Long @ 813.10 --> +
4.1 | 09:43 |
<ItalianSharp> | looks like a classic creeping uptrend thus far...we got news at 10am | 09:48 |
| funny thing is that EUREX and EURONEXT arent following along |
<les> | Long ER2 @ 813.4 «« paper »» | 09:49 |
* Nana_CO | ----[ shorts ER2 @ 13.5 ]---- | 09:52 |
<les> | Exited all ER2 Long @ 813.4 --> 0 «« paper »» | 09:53 |
| wrong |
| Exited all ER2 Long @ 813.6 --> + 0.2 «« paper »» |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited ER2 Long @ 814.10 --> +
5.1 | 09:58 |
<pat255> | wtg niha.. | 09:59 |
<pdays> | Pending home sales +.7 | 10:00 |
<NihabaAshi> | Geeesh...that's a nice volatility spike :) |
<eminitrader> | Covered all ES Short @ 1442.50 --> - 2 | 10:01 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 816.50 --> + 7.3 |
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* Nana_CO | ----[ covers ER2 @ 14.5 -1 ]---- | 10:02 |
* Looking | up Nana_CO user info... | 10:05 |
<PapaJon> | Bush is speaking now | 10:08 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @
816.50 -> small size |
<ItalianSharp> | heads up: president bush speaking now |
<PapaJon> | echo.. hehe |
<NihabaAshi> | 2 contracts only...I'm in profit protection mode for the remainder of the trading day...will drop down to 1 contract for all trades after I close this position. | 10:09 |
<RussellDaytrade> | bush is bluffing | 10:11 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 816.20 -->
+ 0.3 | 10:12 |
|
Covered remainder ER2 Short @ 816.00 -> +0.50
| 10:19 |
<ItalianSharp> | jee...volatility already was low enough to begin with...Bush killed anything that was left of volatility...:( | 10:22 |
| how much longer is this punk going to speak? | 10:23 |
<NihabaAshi> | Yep...reason why I didn't think there was going to be an increased in volatility during my trade while Bush was speaking...very little risk of a volatilty spike going against me. | 10:24 |
| In fact, that's a "intraday market tendency" in that when President Bush is speaking...high probability that volatility and volume will dry up. | 10:25 |
| Thus, if there's any price movement...its a creeper movment. |
* JavaGuest499 | was kicked by NihabaAshi (Ignored my question that had a time limit.) | 10:26 |
<ItalianSharp> | niha, is that a tendency to exploit in holding onto your trades longer without getting spooked? |
<NihabaAshi> | Yes but the only reason why I didn't hold it longer because when I'm in profit protection mode...I tend to exit trades before a WRB profit target. | 10:27 |
<les> | Shorts ER2 @ 815.2 «« paper »» |
<pat255> | later guys @office ty all | 10:28 |
<NihabaAshi> | #FuturesTrades New Password -> New password has been posted @
http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=39.0
| 10:29 |
| However, currently #FuturesTrades does not have its password protection activated... |
<PapaJon> | does that take affect tomorrow? |
<NihabaAshi> | I have the room "public" for anyone to log in. | 10:30 |
| However, as soon as the first spammer shows up or too many new users lurking (not participating)... |
| I'll activate the password to allow on members of the forum to use it. |
| Anyone in here not a forum member...you can register via this link... | 10:31 |
| http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?action=register |
<ItalianSharp> | Oil plunges as Blair Calls for Talks to End Iran-U.K. Dispute........ currently down 1.61 to 64.35 | 10:32 |
<jperl> | ER2 VWAP 814.46 |
<les> | Covered all ER2 Short @ 815.1 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» | 10:33 |
<RussellDaytrade> | late posts...in the l/s acct, shorted 1 @816.5, covered at 815.5...in the short only acct, shorted 2, 1 at 813.6, 1 at 816.3, covered 1 at 815.3, still 1 open short, down about 160 | 10:39 |
<les> | Long ER2 @ 818.3 «« paper »» | 10:45 |
<PapaJon> | Bush is done |
<NihabaAshi> | Those Iranian Diplomats that were seized in Iraq by the U.S. military several months ago have suddenly re-appeared and most likely released (maybe they have already been released)... | 10:46 |
<les> | Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 818.9 --> + 0.6 |
<Brutus> | Shorts ES @ 1447 «« paper »» |
<NihabaAshi> | Geopolitical events and the "UNEXPECTED" rise in Pending Home Sales...nice uptrend so far. | 10:47 |
<les> | entry stop raised ER2 @ 818.4 |
<NihabaAshi> | President Bush not on TV and being followed by the financial networks lso helps. | 10:48 |
* Disconnected | | 10:49 |
* Attempting | to rejoin channel #futurestrades | 10:50 |
* Rejoined | channel #futurestrades | 10:51 |
<Brutus> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1446.5 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» | 10:53 |
* You | were kicked by NihabaAshi_away (NihabaAshi_away)Session Close: Tue Apr 03 10:53:23 2007 |
<Brutus> | Covered all ES Short @ 1446 --> + 1 «« paper »» |
* codehead_afk | is now known as codehead | 10:57 |
<les> | i just noticed... |
| er2 has just fille that large wrb gap of 27th feb |
<ItalianSharp> | if markets can hold around the highs thru the close...we might be heading to fully erase the feb 27 collapse | 10:58 |
| les...:) |
<RussellDaytrade> | yes, i remember this area well |
<les> | in a sense the gap fill is telling us that IS |
| also means a retrace here for a bit is possible |
<szubaark> | Shorts NQ @ 1816.50 «« paper »» | 11:00 |
<ItalianSharp> | these are the type of days where playing against hte main trend can lead to big losses...need to be very patient and accurate in picking the right spots for shorting | 11:01 |
<jperl> | only one small trade for me this morning.... | 11:06 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-03/JP ERL_019.png |
<szubaark> | exit stop set NQ @ 1816.50 «« paper »» | 11:07 |
| Covered all Short NQ at 1816.50 --> 0 «« paper »» | 11:08 |
* NihabaAshi_away | is now known as NihabaAshi | 11:10 |
<szubaark> | Buys NQ @ 1816.75 «« paper »» | 11:13 |
| exit stop set NQ @ 1815 «« paper »» | 11:14 |
* JavaGuest671 | is now known as somoy2007 | 11:20 |
<szubaark> | Exited all Long NQ at 1813.75 --> - 3 «« paper »» |
| Shorts NQ @ 1813.75 «« paper »» |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1428 | 11:28 |
| oops |
| Long ES @ 1446 |
| Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1447 --> + 1 | 11:42 |
<Brutus> | Shorts ES @ 1448 «« paper »» | 11:52 |
<wizardofrijnsaterwou> | goodday all | 11:53 |
<eminitrader> | could'nt get a sell @ 1448 :(( and thats for just 3 contracts :(( | 11:57 |
<RussellDaytrade> | EM, do you ever use that as an indication? | 11:58 |
<eminitrader> | yes ...sometimes ...but not today ... | 12:00 |
<Brutus> | exit stop set ES @ 1449.75 «« paper »» | 12:02 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1447 --> + 1 | 12:03 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) |
<NihabaAshi> | Oil futures still down while Oil ETF's have rebounded very nicely after a gap down at the Open. | 12:05 |
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<Brutus> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1446.75 --> + 1.25 «« paper »» | 12:24 |
| Covered all ES Short @ 1446.25 --> + 1.75 «« paper »» | 12:30 |
| Long ES @ 1446.25 «« paper »» | 12:32 |
| Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1447 --> + 0.75 «« paper »» | 12:38 |
| Exited all ES Long @ 1447.25 --> + 1 «« paper »» | 12:39 |
| sell limit to enter short ES @ 1447.75 «« paper »» | 12:43 |
<RussellDaytrade> | nice hangtime today | 13:04 |
<eminitrader> | exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1446 | 13:05 |
<RussellDaytrade> | short 2 ap 816.83 in the s/o acct, dn approx 300 right now. up 220 and flat on the l/s acct, from a couple three short trades. | 13:06 |
| correction, short 3 ap 816.83 | 13:07 |
<Brutus> | Shorts ES @ 1447.75 «« paper »» |
| Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1447 --> + 0.75 «« paper »» | 13:08 |
| Covered all ES Short @ 1447.75 --> 0 «« paper »» | 13:09 |
<NihabaAshi> | Gold markets still strong in its uptrend since bouncing of its intraday lows on Monday. | 13:10 |
| Silve Futures and ETF's doing well too. |
| Meant Silver. | 13:11 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 13:15 |
<NihabaAshi> | Volatility has been dead since 11am est. | 13:16 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1449 --> + 3 | 13:26 |
| holding 1 |
<Brutus> | YM spiked 30 pts | 13:44 |
<szubaark> | Covered all Short NQ at 1817 --> - 3.25 «« paper »» | 13:54 |
<codehead> | was watching YM--some big stop must have taken out a lot of thin bids | 13:58 |
| i mean offers |
| the offer side went really sparse on teh pop |
<eminitrader> | Exited ES Long @ 1449 --> + 3 | 13:59 |
| Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1449 |
<codehead> | ES has a 5 min ghost triggered |
<szubaark> | Shorts NQ @ 1816 «« paper »» |
<eminitrader> | Covered all ES Short @ 1449 --> 0 | 14:04 |
| Long ES @ 1446.50 | 14:16 |
<ItalianSharp> | anyone know the reason YM spiked up that much? | 14:18 |
<codehead> | like i said--fat stop took out thin offers | 14:19 |
<RussellDaytrade> | i call it, the light bulb burning its brightest, jsut before it burns out |
<codehead> | it had to have been a stop--instantly scrambled the offers--saw gaps | 14:21 |
<RussellDaytrade> | got within a couple ticks of my first buy-ins on tht drop. :) | 14:22 |
<codehead> | also, after it hit 627, the next trade was at 600 | 14:24 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) |
<codehead> | if it had been a big run of buyers, it wouln't have drop a gap like that--must have been a big stop or stops that clears everything above | 14:25 |
<szubaark> | Covered all Short NQ at 1814 --> + 2 «« paper »» | 14:26 |
* szubaark | is now known as szubaark_away |
* Nana_CO | is now known as Nana_afk | 14:29 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1447.50 --> + 1 | 14:47 |
<NihabaAshi> | Anybody curious about my "market approach" for after Easter...read this... | 15:01 |
| http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread .php?s=&threadid=91249&perpage=5&pagenum ber=5 |
| My commentary is the one after "romik" reply. | 15:02 |
| Now that we know the Iran/Britain tensions can move the market... | 15:04 |
| I hope the tensions or any other geopolitical event shows its face on Monday or Tuesday of next week. | 15:05 |
<Brutus> | http://www.thekirkreport.com/ | 15:10 |
| Good article on the main page today |
| Also near the bottom some stuff on April's historical trends | 15:15 |
<NihabaAshi> | I took me many years to learn to use a "losing trade" to setup a "bigger winning trade". | 15:17 |
| It ties into the stuff at the TheKirkReport.com about the fear of failure. | 15:18 |
| You really can't fear getting some losses. |
| Reason why my trading improved dramatically when I stopped spending time on win:loss ratios. |
| I try hard to ride my winners and to keep my losers smaller than my winners. | 15:19 |
| I also try hard to get my position size right from one trading day to the next. |
| For example, on Thursday...there's a strong tendency for a low volatility trading day. | 15:20 |
| I will not be trying to do some size on that day. |
| I will take it easy via doing very little trading and the trading I do...will be via small size only. |
| However, the first few trading days after the Easter holiday...I will do some size. | 15:21 |
| That gets into knowing when to pick our battles. |
| Thursday is a losing battle. |
<jperl> | pretty dull afternnon..... | 15:27 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-03/JP ERL_0110.png |
<eminitrader> | Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1447 --> + 0.5 | 15:33 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 15:36 |
<Brutus> | http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r287/ BoyBrutus/041306.png | 15:40 |
| Last year Thursday b4 Easter | 15:41 |
<GoodMood> | I'm looking for a possibility to trade the Amex. Is there a future or an ETF ? | 15:45 |
<codehead> | hm, just noticed that nutty pop on YM started *exactly* at the breakout on the daily--someone put a stop order there | 15:59 |
| previous high was 12599 | 16:00 |
| and that's exactly where it exploded when it touched |
<NihabaAshi> | I hoped someone made a bundle on either EuroFX EC or Forex EurUsd in that parabolic drop between 1:16pm - 2:06pm est. | 16:13 |
| Take care all and see all tomorrow. |
* NihabaAshi | is now known as NihabaAshi_away |
* DisconnectedSession | Close: Tue Apr 03 16:19:17 2007 | 16:19 |
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