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#FuturesTrades March 30th Friday 2007 Trade Log

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Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year

+18.10 +357.70 +944.30

$1,810 $35,770 $94,430

Breaking News S/R Zones

Profit/Loss Statement

Today at 1003am est a bearish price action with the support of two key economic reports (Consumer Sentiment and Construction Spending) took the markets down hard.

The price decline then increased in volatility when the "breaking news" about Commerce Department approved duties on Chinese paper imports.

Further, as explained in the chat log, many years ago I documented that the "breaking news s/r zones" are eventually retraced.

Simply, they are excellent reasons to stay in trades a little longer so that you can exploit them as profit targets when Long below these types of s/r zones or Short above a these types of s/r zones.

However, I didn't attempt to exploit today's s/r zone produced by the Commerce Department's decision concerning China but I did exploit the bearish price action via the 1003am est Short signal

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and a few clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Fri Mar 30 09:31:39 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:31

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<Brutus> 1000/1400 Jan Construction Spending -0.8% 09:32

1000/1400 Mar Reuters/Univ Mich Index, final 88.8 09:33

<pat255> gm all

<asuni> we have rep next 9 min 09:37

<DevilDog> GM all 09:39

<PapaJon> gm DD 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 807.40 -> large size 09:42

<jperl> ER2 1 Week VWAP 807.63 09:44

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 808.30 --> - 0.9

<PapaJon> i thinks that was the napm report 09:47

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 809.80 -> large size 09:50

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1795 «« paper »» 09:51

exit stop set NQ @ 1801 «« paper »» 09:53

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 810.20 --> + 0.4

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1435.75 «« paper »» 09:56

Exited all ES Long @ 1436 --> + 0.25 «« paper »» 09:59

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 810.20 -> large size 10:04

<pat255> dang office ..missed S 10:06

<RussellDaytrade> missed my fills on the shorts by a tick or two at 808

<jperl> ER2 VWA{ 808.72 10:08

VWAP

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1792 --> + 3 «« paper »» 10:12

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 808.40 --> + 1.8 10:13

<szubaark> nice Niha.

<NihabaAshi> I got some help from other key markets. 10:14

<jperl> ER2 still bouncing around the VWAP 808.71 10:18

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 808.00 --> + 2.2 10:20

I'm officially in profit protection mode... 10:30

Will drop my size down to 1-2 contracts only.

Shorts ER2 @ 806.70 -> small size 10:32

Covered all ER2 Short @ 807.60 --> - 0.9 10:35

Long ER2 @ 807.90 -> small size 10:37

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:39

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 808.30 --> + 0.4 10:40

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<discrat> test 10:44

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1434.75 «« paper »» 10:48

Exited ES Long @ 1434.75 --> 0 «« paper »»

Long ES @ 1433.75 «« paper »»

exit stop set ES @ 1432 «« paper »» 10:49

<jperl> ER2 back to VWAP 808.36 10:54

<RussellDaytrade> 803.53 is my dn t, i think mkt may go up for a couple days, in a general way, so am inclined to think it may not get quite that low. 10:56

that call is good for this am-midday, beyond that it transitions into something else, based upon pa 10:57

<Brutus> Had a partial +2 exit 1435.75, hope we do not fill the gap. 11:14

'had' meaning no fill on that 11:18

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 805.20 -> small size 11:26

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1432 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 11:27

<NihabaAshi> Trying something new that's given me a ton of problems in the past whenever I shorted a Dark WRB that filled in the GAP.

<Brutus> NQ and ER holding 11:29

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 805.60 -> Add

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 804.80 --> + 0.8 11:30

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 806.00 --> - 0.8 11:37

Shorts ER2 @ 803.60 -> small size 11:44

<jperl> this mornings trades....not much

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-30/JP ERL_016.png

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1424.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> You can see the size come in on that around 804.00 11:45

<Brutus> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1425.25 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Meant 803.70 - 804.00

<Brutus> Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1426.25 --> + 2 «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> eurofx spikin up 11:46

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1425.5 --> + 1.25 «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> what's the news?

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 801.40 --> + 2.2 11:47

<ItalianSharp> The US Commerce Dept has just announced its going to institute tariffs on Chinese imports in repsonse to exporter subsidies provided by China.

dollar getting hit heavy 11:48

this is hot news

<NihabaAshi> Yep...will continue holding due to the Breaking News.

<Brutus> Oscar Carboni called for 1412 again before the open 11:49

<ItalianSharp> unreal...expect some HUGE RALLY in case the US department rettifies the news

<NihabaAshi> ItalianSharp...if the news holds (no more releases)...this should drop lower. 11:51

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<Brutus> another V day ?

<NihabaAshi> However, any updates will send price back up via a possible V-Thrust. 11:52

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead

<NihabaAshi> Brutus...a possiblility.

<Brutus> shorts must have that on their minds from prior days action

<NihabaAshi> I would like to see this test the 798.00 price area before attempting any serious counter-thrust back upwards. 11:53

More importantly, will like for the 798.00 price area test to occur before my Lunch around 12noon est :) 11:54

If not...I'll be dumping my remainder.

EuroFX showing some calmness now and so is the U.S. Dollar... 11:55

That should send the institutions back into the Eminis.

Thus, I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon.

Hopefully in the direction of my Short. 11:56

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 802.50 --> + 1.1

<Brutus> thats 10 points in 10 mins on that bounce 11:57

<NihabaAshi> Be back later...going to lunch.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<RussellDaytrade> step out for a few minutes, and voile'

long 2, 804, and 803, didn't think it would go this far, missed the best prices 11:58

likely up from here, for a while 11:59

<Brutus> yest takes out prior days Hi and low today the same 12:01

<RussellDaytrade> 807.41 12:10

<pat255> hi guys ..just check in ..@office 12:58

<RussellDaytrade> pat, you trading the er while filling cavities? :) 12:59

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:00

<pat255> no RD...rofl...work in engineering .. 13:01

would love to fill cavities #250 a pop..

10-15 a day will suit me fine .. 13:02

<RussellDaytrade> whew!... yeah, me too, after all i've seen while at the dentists, feel like i could do it just as well or better.

<pat255> sure ..

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 13:04

<NihabaAshi> I'm just sitting here waiting for the volatility to return... 13:26

It's been declining ever since I left for lunch.

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<pat255> plus it is a Fri.. 13:27

niha u looking L or S side? 13:30

<RussellDaytrade> all out 13:31

<pat255> vn

<NihabaAshi> Decent looking volatility...lets see if it sets up anything on the Long or Short side. 13:32

<pat255> k thks

<NihabaAshi> In reference to the volatility spike over the last 2 mins.

<RussellDaytrade> travelling along my usual format, ie, became so compromised in trade, that i left early with relatively small pft's, even as i think it has more up. i think psychologically, i wanna ring the register, and start over, or something, just know i have done this numerous times and it seems to be consistent with my style, profile, etc. 13:35

http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=er 3-30-07.jpg 13:43

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 804.50 -> small size 13:44

<RussellDaytrade> thats the trades in the l/s acct, net 330 less c, in the S/O acct, up 360 from a couple shorts near the open

all trades in both accts were in adverse price profile at some point in the trades before i closed them for pfts. alls well that ends well. 13:45

<NihabaAshi> I don't like the price action after my entry... 13:46

It can easily turn into one of those "creeper up movements". 13:47

804.00 is my first target.

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 803.70 --> + 0.8 13:48

Holding 1 contract

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 804.40 --> + 0.1 13:49

Trailing stop "pick pocketed" :(

<RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=er 3-30-07soacct.jpg 13:52

short acct trades today

<ItalianSharp> this is hardcore chop 14:10

<pat255> yes .. 14:12

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Looks like the market has officially "retraced" the price action of the drop via the breaking news concerning trade issues with China. 14:30

<pat255> yes ..not all of it ..yet 14:31

<jperl> yes...ER2 retraced back to its VWAP 805.20 14:32

<NihabaAshi> I once documented many years ago that there's a 87% chance that breaking news price reactions like this are "retraced".

<pat255> good stat..

<RussellDaytrade> i have another 5-8 minutes remaining onmy 807.41 call. close enuf now to call it another job well done.

<NihabaAshi> Reason why I mention to be aware of V-Thrust, Creeper Uptrends and Hammer Patterns over the past few years in here in reaction to these "breaking news" key market events. 14:33

What prompt my research into this was one day I had a 2 contract ES position in some dead volatility (price doing nothing)... 14:34

I decided to go out and talk to the guys putting in a new fence... 14:35

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<pat255> amazing fri & this move up..

<NihabaAshi> I didn't have a protective stop and came back to see that the FED announced a "surprised rate cut"... 14:36

I got burnt big time but made it back the next day "knowing" the odds it would retrace itself and it did :)

<pat255> nice ...trading is not simply charts ...:) 14:37

<NihabaAshi> Yep...sometimes its just "market tendencies" and probabilities.

Such gives merits to hearing crazy stories that there are day traders that don't use charts...just price quotes. 14:38

However, I'm still in the camp of needing charts like a baby needs a nipple :) 14:39

<pat255> lol

<RussellDaytrade> i can beleive that, sometimes when it active, i'm just stickin in trades looking at level 1 quotes/ entry screen...

thats sweet, alost to the minute, and the tick, close enuf! 14:40

i better go back and check my math on that. 14:41

<ItalianSharp> where's everybody gone? 14:55

<jperl> I'm done for the day.....trades here... 15:11

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-30/JP ERL_017.png

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:24

<jperl_away> test 15:35

looks like the othernet sever is screwed up

* fseitun is now known as ItalianSharp 15:37

<NihabaAshi_away> Good volatility for the past 30mins 16:03

Take care all and have a nice weekend. 16:10

<Brutus> U2 CUL8R

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:36

* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Mar 30 17:40:49 2007 17:40

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