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#FuturesTrades March 12th Monday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+12.10 +0.0000

$1,210.00 $0.00

Volatility and Volume Correlation

Profit/Loss Statement

Contracting volatility should be telling any trader to be ready to trade on a trend day or their will soon be a trading morning that there's a parabolic price action that breaks out of the prior range like trading days.

However, if you don't understand volatility, you can use volume because there is a strong correlation between volatility and volume.

Yet, eventually you will need to learn about volatility to understand why the price action continues to move one particular direction while volume continues declining.

For example, some traders are easily fooled into thinking that when volume declines and price rises that price will pullback.

Then when price continues going upwards without a pullback...I call this a creeper uptrend based upon the volatility (although low)...it still has volatility spikes as small WRBs to support further upwards price movement while volume is declining.

Simply, these are opportunities to go Long and not to go Short.

By the way, if you trade Forex Currencies...volatility analysis is an excellent trading tool.

Yep, I'm still having some difficulties in my morning trading with this possible new edge involving volatility.

I'll be taking a closer look at the Russell 2000 Volatility Index to see if it can shed some light on my trading problems in the morning (first hour of trading).

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of March...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Mon Mar 12 09:22:16 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:22

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<pat255> gm all 09:26

<jperl> ER2 VWAP data: 09:27

Friday: 791.15 09:28

1 week: 790.55

1 month: 801.85

1 year: 794.20

looks like open will be just above Friday's VWAP 09:29

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 793.40 -> large size 09:34

Exited ER2 Long @ 792.60 --> - 0.8 09:35

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 792.60

Covered ER2 Short @ 793.40 --> - 0.8 09:36

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 793.40

There's a small little low volatility range and I am playing right into it :( 09:37

Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.50 --> + 0.1 09:38

Shorts ER2 @ 793.50 -> large size 09:43

Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.50 --> + 1 09:47

Shorts ER2 @ 791.90 -> large size 09:48

<jperl> ER2 taking the bounce off Friday's VWAP 791.15 09:50

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.70 --> + 0.2 09:51

I'm starting to get a little bullish.

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<pat255> agree niha resist drop.. 09:52

<NihabaAshi> :( 09:53

<pat255> oh well..

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 790.80 -> small size 09:54

Covered ER2 Short @ 791.50 --> - 0.7 09:55

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 791.50

It's just once contract...trying to find a good spot to get Long and will ADD to the position. 09:56

<pat255> guys @office ..biab.. 09:57

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 790.70 --> - 0.8

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 790.3 «« paper »» 09:58

Exited all ER2 Long @ 789.8 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» 10:00

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 790.50 -> small size 10:01

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 790.6 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> 3 contracts

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.2 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:03

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.10 --> - 0.6 10:04

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 790.7 «« paper »» 10:05

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 790.50 -> large size 10:06

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 790.7 --> 0 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 790.4 «« paper »» 10:10

<NihabaAshi> Very discouraging price action :(

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:11

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.60 --> + 1.1 10:14

<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 791.96

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 791.60 -> small size 10:16

<jperl> todays peak volume at 791.20 10:17

<ItalianSharp> yep niha, very tough to trade this...and it doesnt look like it's going to improve much today given the total absence of news

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 792.20 --> - 0.6 10:19

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 792.20

<wizardofrijnsaterwou> gm everybody 10:21

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 793.20 --> + 1

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Not sure if anyone has noticed since that big week of volatility... 10:22

Volatility has declined every trading day since that peak day. 10:23

<ItalianSharp> yep...another big volatility day is overdue now 10:24

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 792.80 -> small size 10:25

Shorts ER2 @ 793.20 -> Add 10:26

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 792.6 «« paper »» 10:28

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 792.50 --> + 0.7

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 792.60 --> + 0.2 10:29

Shorts ER2 @ 792.30 -> large size 10:30

<ItalianSharp> niha, have you gotten into quick-profit taking mode yet? or do you still expect volatility to pick up sometime soon 10:31

<NihabaAshi> I'm close to going into quick trade mode because I'm not reaching any 2-5 point profit trades :( 10:33

Shorts ER2 @ 792.50 -> Add 10:34

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 792.5 10:37

Exited ER2 Long @ 792.5 --> 0 10:40

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 791.70 --> + 0.8 10:41

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.5 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 10:42

<NihabaAshi> I got my profit target for the day even though the win:loss ratio is crappy.

Won't complain considering the type of trading day it has been so far. 10:43

After I close this position...I'm going into profit protection mode and will do 1 contract trades only.

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1413.25 10:44

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 791.50 --> + 0.8 10:46

<ItalianSharp> well done niha 10:47

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 791.70 --> + 0.6 10:48

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 791.8

<NihabaAshi> Thanks ItalianSharp...it wasn't easy especially with the big position size error I had... 10:49

[10:19] <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 792.20 --> - 0.6

[10:19] <NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 792.20

[10:21] <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 793.20 --> + 1 10:50

<ItalianSharp> you mean on the reverse?

<NihabaAshi> That Short for a -0.6 was on 1 contract and when I reversed it into a Long position...

<ItalianSharp> oh i see 10:51

<NihabaAshi> I went 1 contract only instead of reversing into a large size position anywhere between 6 to 10 contracts.

<ItalianSharp> that would have made you very profitable for the day

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 792.3 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Thus, I only nabbed 1 point on a 1 contract position instead of 1 point on a 6 to 10 contract position.

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 792.8 -> Add «« paper »» 10:52

<Brutus> Holding till ES closes the gap or BE stop

<RussellDaytrade> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 792.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:55

flatted the lower priced

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1414.50 «« paper »» 11:00

<jperl> tough morning to make a buck.... 11:02

here are my trades....not much

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-12/JP ERL_012.png 11:03

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 791.9 --> + 0.1 11:08

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.5 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 11:14

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 791.50 -> small size 11:15

<RussellDaytrade> got within a tick, closed it on the bounce

i gotta dn t of 789 or so

in about an hour and a half or more 11:16

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 791.10 --> - 0.4 11:22

Shorts ER2 @ 791.90 -> small size 11:24

Covered ER2 Short @ 790.70 --> + 1.2 11:27

The entry posted is an error.

It was a Short @ 790.90 that resulted in only a +0.20 profit. 11:28

Anybody in hear that watches the Treasury Futures getting any weird quotes on their Yields ??? 11:30

<ItalianSharp> i am getting 4.539 on the 10yr 11:31

<Brutus> Yes Niha $tnx looks weird on Esignal

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1413.00 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Thanks

<ItalianSharp> brutus, what's weird about $tnx 11:32

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 791.10 -> small size

My Yields look like buck shots on a board (missing or scattered data). 11:33

<Brutus> Unususal, not many data points

Yes but last is about 4.53

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<ItalianSharp> yep, i was looking at the 15min chart and it looks ok...i just peeked at the 2min chart and it looks like overnight trading...

<NihabaAshi> :( 11:39

Exited ER2 Long @ 791.40 --> + 0.3

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 792.7 «« paper »» 12:05

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1414.75 --> + 1.5 12:07

Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1415.75 --> + 2.5 12:10

<Chilly> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1416.00 --> + 3 «« paper »» 12:12

Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1416.75 --> + 2.25 «« paper »» 12:15

exit stop set ES @ 1414.75 «« paper »» 12:16

holding 1

bbl 12:19

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<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 793.50 -> small size 12:26

ER2 volatility is declining...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon. 12:31

Volatility is now dead and nothing is happening :( 12:34

<Brutus> lol :)

<NihabaAshi> May be a good time to watch some TV. 12:35

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 793 --> - 0.3 «« paper »» 12:37

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 793.00 --> + 0.5 12:38

When it feels like I'm the only trading the ER2 in the entire world...

<RussellDaytrade> didn't like the way i traded that.(the entry and subsequent missing the close at BE on the initial forst op to cover), even though i still expect it to drop in price.

<NihabaAshi> Time to take a break from trading.

Be back later. 12:39

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<RussellDaytrade> i expect 791 or so

Shorts ER2 @ 793.4 «« paper »» 12:44

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:45

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 793 --> + 0.4 «« paper »»

Shorts ER2 @ 792.9 «« paper »» 12:52

i gotta fill on that, lucky perhaps.

Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.9 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:56

Shorts ER2 @ 793.3 «« paper »» 13:05

Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 13:09

<Chilly> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1414.75 --> + 0.25 «« paper »» 13:26

late post .. just back

<eminitrader> :) ...nice trading 13:28

<RussellDaytrade> ah u tawkin ta me?... 13:30

<eminitrader> well u too RD ...:))

<RussellDaytrade> i know yer not, i just wanted to say that.

<eminitrader> liked the way chilly managed this trade...with a good add ana all.. 13:31

<RussellDaytrade> yes, notice you have some compant trading the es.

campany.

company!

<eminitrader> wish had more :)) 13:32

<RussellDaytrade> that sounds like an invite to play-date.

<eminitrader> why did u pick on ER ...rd rather than the ES ?

<RussellDaytrade> several reasons, in relative priority.. 13:33

<eminitrader> just kidding...u dont have to explain it to anyone

<RussellDaytrade> the volatility, the regurlarity of the volatility..., so k, i don't mind... 13:34

<Chilly> thanks EM ... been learning in this room

<RussellDaytrade> the predictability of the volatility... and the sense i have of it all in putting it all together. 13:35

<eminitrader> good for u chilly ...

good enough :))

<Chilly> :) 13:36

<eminitrader> i still find the ER moves a bit erratic compared to the its flow

guess need more time to getting used to it

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:57

<NihabaAshi_away> Shorts ER2 @ 794.60 -> small size 14:19

Ooopss...

That's a Long

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<RussellDaytrade> upside BO.

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 794.60 -> small size

<RussellDaytrade> may pullback some, but looks destined to resolve in higher prices. 14:20

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1419.25 --> + 6

holding 1

<Chilly> nice patience EM .. worked well 14:21

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 795.00 --> + 0.4 14:22

<eminitrader> thx chilly ...went with the flow ...

<RussellDaytrade> how many of them es's you got in the freezer over there?

<eminitrader> had 10 now 1

<RussellDaytrade> this little es went to mkt. 14:23

<eminitrader> expecting ES 1422-24

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 795.30 -> small size 14:25

I'm expecting another volatility spike here soon due to the contracting volatility. 14:27

Covered ER2 Short @ 795.90 --> - 0.6 14:31

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 795.90

2 contracts on the reversal

Oh oh... 14:32

<pat255> hi emini still play the L side? 14:34

<eminitrader> 1422-1424 pat 14:35

<pat255> for S?

<eminitrader> no no ,,,trend is long now ..

<pat255> k ty

<eminitrader> thats my exit for remaibders..

<pat255> ah ha k.. 14:36

<eminitrader> u might wanr to go kong on a pullback

<pat255> k wil try that...:)

<eminitrader> around 1416-1418... 14:37

<NihabaAshi> I don't know who is getting fills at/above 796.30

It sure isn't me after trying 3 times :(

<pat255> k ..thks emini 14:38

<eminitrader> looks like only buyers niha ...might be a good sign ...

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 796.80 --> + 0.9 14:39

<eminitrader> s:)

<NihabaAshi> Used a market order

<pat255> vn niha

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 797.10 --> + 1.2 14:40

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 797 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1423.25 --> + 10

<RussellDaytrade> ding ding ding! 14:41

<eminitrader> :))

<pat255> later guys

<NihabaAshi> If I hadn't seen the contracting volatility on that losing short position...

<eminitrader> feels good...given the mrkt action this am...had only 1 trade and it paid off 14:42

<NihabaAshi> I would not have been able to minimize my loss and most likely would have taken a worst hit than -0.60

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.5 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 15:01

<NihabaAshi> That's a nice 10 point move for eminitrade on a day like today...very tough to get. 15:04

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:06

<eminitrader> thx niha ...a but of luck tooo....exit fill on the limit was on the high tick 15:08

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.5 «« paper »» 15:10

Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.2 --> + 0.3 «« paper »» 15:18

t = 794.1 or so 15:23

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<NihabaAshi> I'm a little surprise the volatility disappeared so fast especially this late in the trading day. 15:29

:(

Shorts ER2 @ 794.50 -> small size 15:36

<RussellDaytrade> EM, is that 'close enough' on that call? :)

<eminitrader> lost u rd 15:37

<RussellDaytrade> t = 794.1

<eminitrader> oh k

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 795.00 --> - 0.5 15:38

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 795.00

<eminitrader> good one

<RussellDaytrade> kinda liked the manner in which it coincided tot he munute the line terminus i drew on my chart...ooooh, that still looks nice.

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 794.30 --> - 0.7 15:39

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 794.30

Increased to 3 contracts because of the returning volatility...

Hopefully it doesn't prove me wrong and disappear.

Shorts ER2 @ 794.80 -> Add 15:42

Covered ER2 Short @ 795.60 --> - 1.3 15:47

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 795.60

Contracting volatility again... 15:56

Expecting a volatility spike here soon. 15:57

Exited ER2 Long @ 796.40 --> + 0.8 16:00

Holding 2 contracts...

Volatility is dead...time to look for an exit before the close because these 2 remaining contracts aren't intended for swing trading due to the fact this isn't a "market seasonal tendency" cycle. 16:12

Exited ER2 Long @ 796.30 --> + 0.7 16:14

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.20 --> + 0.6

Take care all and hopefully this is a sign that volatility will pick up for the remainder of the week because I'm eager to push some size. 16:15

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:18

* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Mar 12 16:25:12 2007 16:25

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

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