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#FuturesTrades February 29th Friday 2008 Trade Log

 

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+11.30 +351.00 +768.50
$1,130 $35,100 $76,850

Profitable Trade

1540pm - 1552pm est

Losing Trade

1422pm - 1432pm est

click on image to view actual size

 

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

 

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log. 

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

  There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

  Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action. 

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

   
  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Fri Feb 29 00:00:01 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1352.75 «« paper »» 09:35
<NihabaAshi> DAX spike down09:42
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1349 --> + 3.75 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 696.20 -> large size

intuition trade...09:43

I'm just going to follow Eurex and see what happens
<szubaark> also got Oil and Gold on your side
10 AM Consumer Confidance09:44
<NihabaAshi> szu...yes...hopefully they can keep a low resistance level for my trade

DAX still trying hard to push lower09:45

Same with other Eurex and Euronext

Covered ER2 Short @ 694.80 --> + 1.4 09:46
<szubaark> nice Niha.
<NihabaAshi> Oil and Gold trying hard to form a support level

ER2 pushing lower...its now on its own.09:47
<werner> gm all09:48
<rickf> gm werner09:49
<megus> es broke through the 1350, that was s&p's most recent support09:50
<NihabaAshi> volatility contracting09:53

Shorts ER2 @ 695.10 -> small size 09:54

2 only
<Kn-Es> add 47.5009:55
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 696.20 --> - 1.1 09:56

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 696.20

suckered punched :(09:57

Exited ER2 Long @ 696.30 --> + 0.1 09:59

volatility contracting again and got lucky to be able to exit in a drift up (noise).10:00
<Pat> yup10:01
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 696.90 -> small size 10:04
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1349 «« paper »» 10:05
<NihabaAshi> szu...I like your entry...that should also imply something about my current Long :(10:06
<szubaark> yeah, we'll see :)
Covered all Short ES at 1349 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:08
Shorts ES @ 1349 «« paper »» 10:10
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 696.20 --> - 0.7
<szubaark> hopefully will get a Volatility spike to downside, im Short
exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1349 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 695.10 -> small size 10:11
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1345 --> + 4 «« paper »» 10:12
<Kn-Es> s.l hit 45
<szubaark> Again, nice followthru so far Today.
<Kn-Es> lng 45
<NihabaAshi> I got key markets on my side but ER2 is within the price noise area :(
<Kn-Es>  out 44
<NihabaAshi> It needs to drop to 693.20 to get below that noise leve10:13
Geeesh...market seems almost lethargic10:15
<megus> at this pace, s&p will drop below triangle10:19
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 693.90 --> + 1.2
  
Trading Edge: 

Strategies

If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.
   Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) 
  
<megus> continue bearish trend
<NihabaAshi> Just paying the broker on the last few trades :(10:20
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info ->  I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.10:21
<megus> i think the next stop would be the 1330 on the s&p
<NihabaAshi> Be back later (maybe) :)10:22
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<PapaJon> chop chop today10:25

making me in the mood for chinese for lunch
<rickf> mmmm cginese
jeez goofy day to test new software :(10:41
<megus> sheesh, 1.75 points on es10:46
<szubaark>  Buys ES @ 1343 «« paper »» 10:47
<ItalianSharp> we have a pending FED member speeach at 11am and another one at 12.15pm

probably mkts taking a breather before the speechesw

i see more downside here before a rebound
<megus> contraction
<ItalianSharp> hopefully futures will pull back a little to provide a short opportunity10:48

so far it's been only bears showing up
<pw998> I've been waiting for a bit of a relief to get a good entry as well10:50
<megus> the way i see it, 1341-2 was a previous low and might show a bit of retracement
<Tim_a1> es 1340-43 an important support level - 200ma on hourly chart, and pivot point a number of times10:51
<megus> haven't looked at the ma actually
<Tim_a1> no supports were tested below us overnight10:53
<megus> had a small triangle on the 1 min es10:54

just broke out , but it would have to show more volume
<szubaark>  exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1343 «« paper »» 10:55
Selling at every corner10:59
Exited all Long ES at 1343 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:00
<megus> failed breakout11:01

goes below triangle

Shorts ES @ 1343 -> small size «« paper »» 11:05

Covered all ES Short @ 1345.5 --> - 2.5 «« paper »» 11:10

gettin sloppy
<Tim_a1> spx 200 ma is 1349.78 having touched the 1340 support, seems like it might backtest before proceeding down, if it does continue down11:11
(on 60 minute chart)
<szubaark> its Friday and lunchtime this could chop for hours11:12
<pw998> For me, this is a time to trade small positions11:13
<szubaark> you'll be fighting small retail here Tick for Tick11:14
<megus> yeah, low volume11:15
everybody's holding their breath
<pw998> Yes
<megus> that FED speech is critical?11:38
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi12:02
<ItalianSharp> lockhart is due up in 8mins...hopefully things will get more interesting during his speech12:07
mishkin killed the little volatility we had before 11am....(12:08
<rickf> is it me or is this fed far more chatty than the greenspan fed?12:09

iirc you rarely had governors making speeches with such regularity -- or at least nobody paid much attention to them?
<ItalianSharp> well, i wasnt daytrading back in the greenspan's days...so i cant tell...:)12:10
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1343.50 «« paper »» 12:14

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1343.50 «« paper »» 12:21

Covered all Short ES at 1343.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:22
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info ->  I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.12:24
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead
<szubaark>  Buys ES @ 1343.75 «« paper »» 12:25
exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1343.75 «« paper »» 12:27
<rickf> whaaaaa12:28

nice pop there
<szubaark>  Exited all Long ES at 1346.50 --> + 2.75 «« paper »» 12:30
Shorts ES @ 1343.75 «« paper »» 12:42
exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1343.75 «« paper »» 12:44
Covered all Short ES at 1343.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:47
<codehead> long YM 12375 <paper>13:04

stop under lod13:06
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1343.75 «« paper »» 13:12
Covered all Short ES at 1345 --> - 1.25 «« paper »» 13:15
<Tim_a1> unusual that it's just consolidated under the 60 min 200ma for so long13:16
<szubaark>  Buys ES @ 1346.25 «« paper »» 13:19
Exited all Long ES at 1344.75 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» 13:24
Shorts ES @ 1344.75 «« paper »» 13:25
Expecting Volatility spike soon, hopefully to downside, Im Short13:26
<rickf> you got it szu13:33
<szubaark> these consolidating bottoms tops on Fridays are always tough for me as i sometimes overtrade them
<rickf> agreed -- today is pure paper trade as i futz around with my new platform13:34
<szubaark> what platform?13:35
<rickf> overtrading is an understatement in today's trial-n-error experimenting

open ecry

should be back to real $$ trading next week
<szubaark> Im not happy as IB went down a few too many times for me last couple weeks.13:37
<Tim_a1> no strength at all, opend down big, then just consolidated into the first resistence before dropping more
<rickf> szu - :( been there suffered through that13:38
<szubaark> A backup account is Necessary in this biz
<Tim_a1> ib hasnt been down for me at all13:39
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 692.60 -> small size
<rickf> i'm just very happy finally to have: DOM and the ability to *easily* scale in/out of trades -- been doing that very nicely today even with the chop13:40
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1341 --> + 3.75 «« paper »» 13:41
<rickf> oh yeah - and fast fills, and reliable charts/data. that's kind of important, too.
<szubaark> as a retail trader, you will always be behind on speed (Pros make sure of that) thats why i dont use anything less then 3 min charts13:43
<Tim_a1> does zerolinetrader give you some of that rickf?
<rickf> tim - never heard of them

szu - that's a given13:44
<Tim_a1> (zlt as a front end for IB)
<rickf> tim - i don't use ib
<Tim_a1> i believe it has DOM
what do you use for broker nih, if you dont mind my asking?13:45
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 691.60 --> - 1

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 691.60
<rickf> short es 1339.5013:46
(paper)
<codehead> whew, was away--my paper trade stopped out -37 :-P13:48
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 690.00 --> + 1.6 13:51
Tim_a1...I use Velocity, Global, RJO and Saxo13:52
Will be dumping Global soon for either OpenEcry or Infinity
<silo> what do yo ulike about saxo.. i hear it's good... not only for futures, but for forex as well13:53
<NihabaAshi> I like anyone that doesn't crash a lot :)13:54
<Tim_a1> thx nih
<rickf> exit es 1337.50 (paper) + 2pts13:56
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 689.40 --> + 2.2 13:57

Shorts ER2 @ 688.70 -> small size 14:00

another intuition trade
<rickf> short es 1339 (paper)
sorry late14:01
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 688.50 --> + 0.2 14:02
<rickf> exit es 1336 (paper) +3pts
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 689.80 -> small size

1 only

Lost 3 ticks on not reversing the prior trade :(14:03

Will correct my Long post...14:05

Long ER2 @ 688.80 -> small size

I was too hesitant to reverse that Short into a Long around 688.40 or 688.50 and it cost me 3 ticks via getting in at 688.8014:06
<rickf> short es 1337 (paper)14:07
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 689.00 --> + 0.2 14:09
<Spartan>  Long ES @ 1337.00 «« paper »» 14:10
<rickf> exit es 1336 (paper) +114:13

theres the drop i missed :(14:14
<Spartan>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1335.0 --> - 2 «« paper »»
<Kn-Es> long 35.5014:16
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 688.90 -> small size
<Kn-Es> sl 32.50
<NihabaAshi> 1 only
intuition trade
<rickf> k all off for the day. have a good weekend14:20
<NihabaAshi> take care
oh oh14:21
It's contracting
<Spartan>  Long ES @ 1336.0 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 689.80 --> - 0.9 14:22
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 689.80
<Kn-Es> out 2/3 36.50 +1.0014:23
<NihabaAshi> Doesn't look like ER2 and others can muscle up a rally of any kind.14:27
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info ->  I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.14:30
<Spartan>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1334 --> - 2 «« paper »» 14:32
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 687.80 --> - 2

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 687.80
<Spartan> tough trading against a trend late in the day14:33
<NihabaAshi> nasty little spike and its not done yet (oppposit direction retrace spike potential)
<Kn-Es> add 2 33.5014:35
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 688.70 --> - 0.9 14:36

oooops

Covered ER2 Short @ 687.70 --> + 0.1 14:37
<szubaark> No Volatility, Price just drifting downward
<NihabaAshi> szu...the creeping price action will end soon.14:38

It's a Friday and that usually gives us a later afternoon nice directional move without the creeping price action14:39

looking bearish again14:41

Now bullish on the spike up

Long ER2 @ 689.30 -> small size
<Spartan>  Long ES @ 1336.0 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 689..80 --> + 689..80 - 689.30 14:44

Exited ER2 Long @ 689.80 --> + 0.5

Shorts ER2 @ 689.80 -> small size 14:52

:(14:54
<szubaark> retrace players trying hard to push higher14:55
<pdays>  Shorts ER2 @ 690.0

Covered all ER2 Short @ 689.7 --> + 0.3
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 689.60 --> + 0.2 14:56
It looked promising for awhile but not long enough for other key markets to catch on :(14:57
<Spartan>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1334 --> - 2 «« paper »» 15:01
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 687.40 -> small size 15:13
Covered ER2 Short @ 688.30 --> - 0.9 15:20
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 688.30
<Spartan>  Long ES @ 1333.25 «« paper »» 15:21

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1335.25 --> + 2 «« paper »» 15:23

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1333.25 «« paper »» 15:24
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 689.50 --> + 1.2
<Spartan>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1333.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 15:31

Shorts ES @ 1333.0 «« paper »» 15:33

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1331 --> + 2 «« paper »» 15:40
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 686.30 -> small size
<Spartan>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1330 --> + 3 «« paper »» 15:44

Shorts ES @ 1329 «« paper »» 15:46

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1328 --> + 1 «« paper »» 15:47

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1327 --> + 2 «« paper »» 15:49

Long ES @ 1326.50 «« paper »» 15:51
<KiwiRoo> I wonder what happened today
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 683.00 --> + 3.3 15:52

Finally....geeesh :(
  
WRB Analysis
  
<KiwiRoo> merrill must have sold more than 2500 big contracts just now. wooow.
<Tim_a1> megaphone patern, rejection of last friday's jam jab at 50 day ma

(S & P) dow rejected at 20 month ma yesterday15:53
<Spartan>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1328 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 15:55
1328.50 i meant
<NihabaAshi> Geeesh...nice bounce back upwards.15:58
<Tim_a1> that may 2006 high is an important level16:02
1326
<Spartan> I would have had a great day if I wouldn't have been bottom picking earlier this afternoon. Finished flat16:04
<Tim_a1> i'm not a big e-waver, but after the fact you can genreally see 3 up phases of a bull, and a bear saws them off one phase at a time. wave '3', (the 2nd up phase of the bull) ended at he may 2006 high. wave 5 was the blowoff top16:07
the bottom of this bear phase ended at the bull's wave 4 bottom june or jul 200616:09
that coincided with the 50 month ma at the bottom
note that it never *closed* below that may 2006 high on a weekly basis16:11
<werner> gn all16:12
<Tim_a1> althouh nih, if you take a look at $spx weekly candles, the last 3 weeks make an ugly pattern
espeacially since this week's candle was up against he 50 day ma16:13
<NihabaAshi> It's been ugly overall since mid October 200716:15

Last two weeks has been in a trading range...

Making it difficult trading for most.16:16

Especially the higher time frame traders
<Tim_a1> you've got to really be on the ball in this stuff, people who think shorting in a bear is easy are wrong16:17
<Brutus> cn all16:34

gn :)
<NihabaAshi> Take care all and have a good weekend.16:50

Hopefully March won't be like the latter part of February.
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Feb 29 19:41:31 200819:41
  
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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ   

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

 questions@thestrategylab.com

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