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#FuturesTrades February 28th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Statement

The markets fought hard today not to continue the downtrend today. However, it went into a range bound price action for all the key markets (Oil, Gold, Eurex, Treasury et cetera) and if such continues for a few more trading days...

It will setup a trend day.

As for today, volatility was declining after 1045am est and continue to do so for the remainder of the trading day. Thus, traders should have reduce their profit targets, reduced their position size to better manage the increased risk exposure via the volatility analysis of the price action until the volatility returned around 3:42pm est.

That's exactly what I would have done myself had I been trading after 1045am est (see chat log below for the reason why I wasn't trading after 1045am est).

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of February...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Wed Feb 28 09:26:18 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:26

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<eminitrader> before new highs

<RussellDaytrade> ie, the typical results of historical outcomes when mkts see these types of activities, both up and down.s

<pat255> gm all... 09:30

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 793.00 -> large size 09:33

<RussellDaytrade> look at that, they jammed it down low for the opening volume. 09:34

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.00 --> - 2 09:38

<pat255> :( 09:39

es took off ...er struggle 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 791.40 -> large size 09:41

Exited ER2 Long @ 790.80 --> - 0.6 09:42

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 790.80

Shorts ER2 @ 789.50 -> Add 09:43

<les> bit late, but here it is.. 09:44

Shorts ER2 @ 790.1 «« paper »»

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 790.6 --> - 0.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 788.80 --> + 0.7

<RussellDaytrade> if they're gonna hold, this is the area. 09:45

<les> not much chance of that :))

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 788.6 «« paper »» 09:47

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 785.30 --> + 5.5 09:48

<eminitrader> nice :))

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<NihabaAshi> Took me two trades to figure out the direction :)

What got me on the first two trades was the "low volatility". 09:49

<les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 786.3 --> + 3.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> I expected after yesterday more volatility this morning and it didn't happen :(

Their blaming this drop due to "margin calls". 09:52

In reference to the price action since 0940am est. 09:53

<szubaark> zig' still LOADING THE BOAT with Longs? :)

<NihabaAshi> Let me check... 09:54

<GoodMood> who is "´zig" ?

<szubaark> some amateur in a chat room

<GoodMood> ok 09:55

<NihabaAshi> He's a trader from the Financial Network in a room called #IndexFutures

<GoodMood> what makes him so special ?

<NihabaAshi> It's probably the biggest and noisest room on the net.

<PapaJon> is that a private room niha?

<NihabaAshi> No...its public.

<PapaJon> ah

<szubaark> scary thing is sometimes he has a lucky streak then people take his trades then he gets whacked again 09:56

<NihabaAshi> Nothing special about Zig other than he's the biggest trader I've seen that "averages down" into Losers.

<GoodMood> with "big" you mean his contract numbers ?

<szubaark> am4st was also averaging into losers.. havent seen him in a while

<NihabaAshi> No...big as in consistently averaging down into almost every trade. 09:57

<szubaark> One guy i talked to regurly who averaged into losers blew his account.. now hes driving trucks again :(

<ItalianSharp> jeeess...this market is too fast....i cant' keep up with my brains... 09:58

too quick....YM is going nuts...never seen this

<RussellDaytrade> hey, if your such a genius, show us how it's done.

<szubaark> Italian thats this markets job.. to throw you off CONSTANTLY

My quotes messing up.. wonder if ill even trade today. 09:59

<RussellDaytrade> best money i've ever made made was buying deep into selloffs.

<ItalianSharp> szu, you usually don't see YM devouring 10-20 ticks per time

<RussellDaytrade> some people happen to be good at it. 10:00

<ItalianSharp> i can't even place a limit order...just crazy

by the time i see something on the screen, the market has made 10-15 ticks already

<szubaark> yes.. im not touching this..quotes just look funny

<ItalianSharp> seriously...it looks like running tick replay with 100 speed 10:01

<szubaark> yes.. wonder if there is a Problem on exchanges

<ItalianSharp> and i do train myself running tick replay a lot faster than market speed...yet i still cant keep up with it

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1405.50

<NihabaAshi> Key Economic Report: New Homes Sales "weaker" than expected.

Shorts ER2 @ 788.00 -> small size 10:03

<ItalianSharp> YM is making 30-tick bars in the 1min chart...am I seeing this right?

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 787.4 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 787.40 --> + 0.6

I'm having a lot of lag in my charts in comparison to my broker :( 10:04

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1402.50 --> + 3

<NihabaAshi> Simply, tough trading.

<eminitrader> looks like tank coming 10:05

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 786.9 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.70 --> + 0.3

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1758 «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> i am just gonna sit back and wait for speed to settle down a little

<RussellDaytrade> this is probably the tags ends of the selling / cleanout 10:07

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1403 --> + 2.5 10:08

holding 4

<szubaark> nice

<eminitrader> thx szu

<pat255> vn em keep missing it ...

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 786.6 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 10:09

<pat255> i dont even want to toch er today

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1404.50 --> + 1 10:12

<NihabaAshi> FED Chairman Bernanke is now speeking and its the reason for the declining volatility... 10:13

I'm now expecting a volatility spike soon.

Long ER2 @ 788.00 -> small size 10:16

:(

<les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.5 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 10:17

<NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 789.00 --> + 1

Horrible entry due to the lag in my charts in comparison to my broker...tough to see the real price action.

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 789.40 --> + 1.4 10:18

Changing servers again...

If I get one more bad entry...I'm done trading for the morning. 10:19

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<les> er2 daily shows its run into some solid support... 10:20

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1409.50

<les> bu if it breaks 780-ish

gonna go tank agaion i think

<RussellDaytrade> positive divergences

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 789.20 -> small size 10:21

:(

That's my last trade of the morning.

Looking for a lucky exit. 10:22

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1405.50 --> + 4

<szubaark> wow..look at that candle screaming down

<les> nice em

<eminitrader> thx les

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 789.00 --> + 0.2

I'm on the sidelines...charts too crazy and not keeping up with what's really occurring in the market. 10:23

<pat255> right ..niha ere too..

here 10:24

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 789.3 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1408.50 --> + 1 10:27

<NihabaAshi> 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report minutes away.

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1409.50 10:28

<WannaBeBOS> this ought to be good

<les> Covered ER2 Short @ 791.8 --> - 2.5 «« paper »»

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 791.8 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1411

thats a add

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 792.3 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:29

<RussellDaytrade> positeive divergnce, yeaha, positive, (sung to the tune of 'positive vibrations, yeah'.

i like the way that nq is screaming, up. 10:31

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.8 --> + 2 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> was a good add, from earlier lows, just like the er. 10:32

<les> exit stop raised ER2 @ 791.9 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1412.50 -> Add

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 793.9 --> + 2.1 «« paper »» 10:34

Long ER2 @ 795.2 «« paper »» 10:36

<RussellDaytrade> as prices move up rapidly, the complainers will then complain about not having time to have gotten long. 10:37

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 795.7 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:38

<RussellDaytrade> i am gling to call my congressman, and have him ask ben how come the mkts are going UP so fast, and why they don't wait for me to buy before going up 10:41

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1774 --> - 16 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> wow, nice trade

going to go hide now? 10:42

<szubaark> just keeps going UP UP UP 10:43

<RussellDaytrade> next time you go and disparage otjhers trading styles, reflect on today, ah.

<les> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 796.6 --> + 1.4 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1414.50 -> Add 10:44

now holding 10 short

will add 10 @ 1419 if it gets there

<NihabaAshi> Looks like my data problems occurred at the worst possible time... 10:45

I sure I would be Long several points ago :(

<szubaark> No Pullbacks just keeps going up. Frikin Amazing 10:46

<RussellDaytrade> amazing only to anybody that didn't see it coming. 10:47

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 795.9 --> + 0.7 «« paper »»

<szubaark> only you must have the crystal ball

<les> wrong ext

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.9 --> + 1.7 «« paper »» 10:48

<RussellDaytrade> typical mkt action

<les> thats better

* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away 10:50

<eminitrader> missed add by 1 tick :((

had limit sell 1419 ...pullback from 1418.75 :(( 10:51

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:59

<eminitrader> looks like an picture perfect scenario...mrkt stuck @ 60% retrace level ...restest of lows possible...or atleast a pullback 11:05

talking abt ES

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead

<eminitrader> if it breaks 1420 ...then possible 1434 11:06

Shorts ES @ 1314 11:16

5 moe ..now holding 15 11:17

<Chilly> EM do you have a hard stop in? 11:19

<eminitrader> not phsical...but around 1421 11:21

eifnot retest of lows expecting pullback - 1410-1406 area 11:22

<Chilly> ok, thanks

<eminitrader> urw 11:23

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1411 --> + 3.5 11:41

holding 7 now

<pat255> wtg em ..hand it to u ..your patience & beilef in the trade .. 11:42

<eminitrader> thx pat

thats typical price action though...after a large move like yest..

<pat255> & i took a stop ...not big but still..

<eminitrader> gotto be in and have patience like u said 11:43

<pat255> yes ...need to work on it .but still learning from u guys ..

<eminitrader> my only regret is missing a sell @1419 y 1 tick ...that would have an excellent position with 20 short @ avd 1416 11:44

<pat255> yeah u miss by a tick ...sucks ... 11:46

<eminitrader> 1416 is an 50% fib level from yest ...move

<pat255> i c.. 11:47

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1410 --> - 96 11:49

holding 5 11:50

okay entry error

Shorts ES @ 1416

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1410 --> + 6 11:51

<pat255> vn em

<eminitrader> thats kinda misleading though ...avg sell position is 1411

1414 i mean 11:52

waiting for 1408.50 for next exit level 11:53

got it 11:54

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1408.50 --> + 7.5

holding 3

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1414 11:55

<RussellDaytrade> looks like you earned a smoke break. :) 11:56

<eminitrader> sorry holding 1 now not 3 11:57

too many contracts to keep tract off :))

thx rd ...certainly did ...shortly after filling my logs

<pat255> what do u write in the logs ..if u dont mind myasking? 11:59

<eminitrader> nice way to end the month...best month since i started trading

<RussellDaytrade> alright, times up, pencils down everybody.

<eminitrader> in terns of moolay i mean :))

<pat255> lol 12:00

<eminitrader> mrkt behaving as expevted ...

well for me the mrkt = ES

<RussellDaytrade> i missed the golden opportunity to add at this am's low, had a good read on it, did not leap into action. 12:02

good trading EM.

<eminitrader> miseed a tenner by 1 tick ..

thx rd ...me too missing entries/exits by 1 tick today

<RussellDaytrade> well, if you keep trying, and keep missing it by a tick, thjats ok too! 12:03

<eminitrader> missing on an entry is bad...but missing on a exit worst case is b/e

had exit @ 1406 ...mrkt ppullback 1406.25 12:05

actually it did hit 1416 ...but not fill... 12:06

pat ..get my pm 12:09

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1408 --> + 8

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:11

<RussellDaytrade> they just showed a video clip of AG in his home office. he was sitting at his desk with stocks quotes running on second cpu... 12:36

no wonder he made that statement, he was short the mkt and needed to cover! 12:37

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1413 12:49

<RussellDaytrade> EM, i think it is becoming an addiction. :) 12:52

<eminitrader> just 1 contract rd 12:53

<RussellDaytrade> i suppose its been paying well enough, carry on.

<eminitrader> out

Covered all ES Short @ 1314 --> + 99 12:54

<RussellDaytrade> a hundred bagger.

<eminitrader> :))

Covered all ES Short @ 1414 --> - 1

<RussellDaytrade> may have to hold for a few weeks for that.

<eminitrader> prolly a lot more 12:55

but i still think we see new lows ..maybe not today ..but i feel it coming 12:56

<RussellDaytrade> yes, may be better to just repeat the tenners...i think the lows are in fro this main move, think it'll see a high before tyurning back down... 12:57

let me make a projection...for the er... 12:58

<eminitrader> es new lows before new highs ...most certain

<RussellDaytrade> 815-818 range, top end of a bounce. 12:59

<eminitrader> may prolly make a large move to shake out sellers 1440 ..maybe before heading south

<RussellDaytrade> not new highs, just a prominent high, but a lower high then the top prices.

<eminitrader> yep the shake out move 13:00

<RussellDaytrade> hope so, i wanna unshackle myself from this early long, hopefuly without having to chew off my foot / leg. 13:01

<eminitrader> prolly see a couple of inside days

whats ur entry on the long

<RussellDaytrade> ap of 800.6

<eminitrader> will surely get that..i see at leasty 802.50 13:02

<RussellDaytrade> i used to nail these selloffs right on the nuts for a turn, must be outta practice, still got a good read on it this am. 13:03

i am seeing a lot of pos div, so, so far it still looks good for more up.

<eminitrader> for one thing er nq es all r aligned today 13:04

<RussellDaytrade> that cleanout dip was so obvious, it was like they were holding up a sign. 13:05

<eminitrader> pretty much same pattern moves

<RussellDaytrade> nice trade from the short side, i think you may have caught the last of the easy short, (not that it was easy, but you know hwat i mean) think the shorts are gonna get a taste of it in here soon... 13:08

but who knows, not quite as clear as earlier in the day, could always revisit /retest. 13:09

trhat said, my inclination is higher.

<eminitrader> true RD ...but last day of the month ...so tight stop 13:11

dont want to give back any today

<RussellDaytrade> good time to let the mkt tip its hand fro high probabilty setups 13:12

<eminitrader> yep 13:13

<RussellDaytrade> smallpos on the geopolitical front(s) 1 korea talks, and 2 iran /syria iraq us talks. could spark a mini buy frenzy in a couple days if some glad-handing seen from it/ ease the pressures, etc. 13:17

samll positives.

seems almost illogical, but this type of news is tradable. 13:18

also, just the type of thing to cause a 'rebalancing' buy cover prior to ex. 13:19

thats the printout my brain is producing, from all the variables that are in the hopper at his time. :) 13:20

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:23

<ItalianSharp> weird price action...we are stuck in a range getting smaller and smaller...up and down....are we going to see new lows? 14:19

<eminitrader> lets wait and see 14:20

es 1406 has minor support ...dont know if it'll hold 14:23

looks loke 791 on the re

re=er 14:24

<ItalianSharp> it looks like it may break down any time 14:26

lots of support here...if this support is taken out...we are gonna see some fireworks again...:)

<eminitrader> or will prolly chop 1406-1414 14:29

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:32

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1410.25 14:51

3 only

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1408.25 --> + 2 14:55

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1409.25 --> + 1 15:04

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1410.25 --> 0 15:07

Shorts ES @ 1412 15:11

1 only

<RussellDaytrade> can't talk you into a long?

<eminitrader> :)) 15:12

see no reason for going long

<RussellDaytrade> go get 'em tiger, time for one of them good ole reversals you gys are so handy at.

<eminitrader> well er is different but on the ES

<RussellDaytrade> true, i am looking at er 15:13

<eminitrader> see nice reversal bar on the er test of highs 15:14

<RussellDaytrade> all them positive div i mentioned earlier still look valid. 15:16

<eminitrader> looks like u maybe right :)) 15:17

Shorts ES @ 1413.76 -> Add 15:20

reversal bar is a reversal bar after all...er may see support come in 796-784 15:22

oops 796-794

<RussellDaytrade> well, i am looking for a move up that makes this whole area between 792 and 798 today appear like a base of support. 15:25

<eminitrader> Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 1412.75 --> + 1.01 15:26

<RussellDaytrade> one more move up, if happens, above 799, may be the move that helps to mark the separation. 15:27

<eminitrader> iwmaybe

<NihabaAshi> ER2 range got tight after 1045am est. 15:29

<pat255> pre mkt high been nice magnet.. 15:33

alll day

<eminitrader> gotto go see u all tommorow ..take cae 15:39

<RussellDaytrade> so long

<pat255> later em ...

<RussellDaytrade> good trading. 15:40

<eminitrader> bye guys

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:44

<werner> gn all 16:08

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and I hope the low volatility in the afternoon then cause too many trading problems even though volatility returned to the game around 3:42pm est. 16:16

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<pat255> later niha gn 16:21

<RussellDaytrade> i am keeping open sell orders above the mkt, in case er spikes up in the afterhours session, 1/4 at 800.5, and above on .5 scales 16:23

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Feb 28 16:39:43 2007 16:39

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