#FuturesTrades February 27th Wednesday 2008 Trade Log

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log. 

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

  There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

  Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action. 

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

	#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
	Session Start: Wed Feb 27 09:20:08 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now	talking in #futurestrades	09:20
<X>	[NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<NihabaAshi>	Good morning all
<pat255>	gm N..
<pw998>	good morning
<Spartan>	gm
<pat255>	hope your son doing better	09:21
<gabe>	gm..ditto
<Nesi>	Ben Bernanke Speaks! Wednesday - Feb 27, 2008
<Nesi> 10:00 AM ET :	Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to give semiannual monetary policy testimony to House Financial Services Committee, in Washington .
<Nesi>	Help Wanted Index
	[Bullet] 10:00 ET
	disregard help wanted	09:22
	that is tomorrow
	New Home Sales
	[Report] [Bullet] 10:00 ET
	EIA Petroleum Status Report
	[Bullet] 10:30 ET
	that is today
<nqcruiser>	Good morning mates
<Nesi>	http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe. asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/ index.html
	that is a link for economic numbers, fwiw
<drt>	gm all	09:29
<pat255>	nesi fed report today?	09:30
<Nesi>	bernie at 10 am
<pat255>	ty
<Nesi>	:)
<nqcruiser>	what is the symbol for er2 on iqfeed	09:31
	it seems @er2h8 is not working
<ripsboy>	gm folks...	09:33
<PapaJon>	gm all	09:34
<futurible>	gm all
<szubaark>	Buys ES @ 1374.50 «« paper »»	09:37
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 711.8 «« paper »»	09:38
	Covered all ER2 Short @ 712.6 --> - 0.8 «« paper »»	09:40
<Pepe>	anyone knows ....Where is eminitrader?	09:41
<werner>	no	09:42
<szubaark>	exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1374.50 «« paper »»
	Exited all Long ES at 1377.25 --> + 2.75 «« paper »»	09:48
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 714.20 -> large size
	I'm cutting it very close to those pending 10am est key market events :(	09:49
	Covered ER2 Short @ 715.10 --> - 0.9	09:50
<Pepe>	:(
<megus>	where cna i listen to bernanke?
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 714.80 -> large size	09:51
<robert>	Shorts ES @ 78.50
	Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 76.75 --> + 1.75	09:52
Trading Edge:  Strategies	If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.
	Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)
<NihabaAshi>	Covered ER2 Short @ 713.70 --> + 1.1	09:55
	Too many big events at 10am est along with Gold recently making record highs and the poor dollar performance...	09:56
	I didn't want to be in that Short too much longer with those 10am est events coming soon.
	There's also another snow storm here :(	09:57
	Thus, may trading day will be brief today.
	Therefore, I've changed my profit goal from $1,500 to $500.	09:58
	Long ER2 @ 715.70 -> small size	09:59
<szubaark>	computer froze :((	10:00
<megus>	S&P is too risky now :(
	seems like it's plunging, but speech's coming up	10:01
<pw998>	no kidding
<NihabaAshi>	Pin Ball Machine :(	10:02
	This thing can easily retrace fast anytime.	10:03
<megus>	i'll be sitting on my hands for a while
<NihabaAshi>	Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 718.70 --> + 3	10:04
<Pepe>	wow
	NIce
<NihabaAshi>	Now you know why I didn't want to hang out too long in those Short positions I did earlier.	10:05
<pw998>	good call on that long	10:06
<NihabaAshi>	Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 717.50 --> + 1.8	10:07
<robert>	Covered Remainder ES Short @ 75.75 --> + 2.75
<NihabaAshi>	I've reached my profit goal for the day.	10:09
<pat255>	vn
<NihabaAshi>	Thus, will trade 1 contract only for what's left of my trading day which is probably about 30 mins more of trading.
<szubaark>	Buys ES @ 1379.50 «« paper »»	10:10
<megus>	very nice.	10:11
	what did you base your reversal on?	10:12
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 717.8 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 718.00 -> small size	10:14
	1 only
<Spartan>	Covered all ER2 Short @ 718.8 --> - 1 «« paper »»	10:16
<NihabaAshi>	Covered ER2 Short @ 719.20 --> - 1.2
	Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 719.20
	Exited ER2 Long @ 719.30 --> + 0.1	10:19
	:(
<szubaark>	Exited all Long ES at 1379.50 --> 0 «« paper »»
	Shorts ES @ 1379.50 «« paper »»
<megus>	Long ES @ 1379 «« paper »»	10:20
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 717.8 «« paper »»	10:21
<szubaark>	1379.50	10:24
	exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1379.50 «« paper »»
<megus>	Exited all ES Long @ 1377 --> - 2 «« paper »»
<szubaark>	Covered all Short ES at 1376.50 --> + 3 «« paper »»	10:25
<Spartan>	Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 716.4 --> + 1.4 «« paper »»
<szubaark>	in 5 minutes we have oil report
<megus>	when is the bernanke speech over?
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.	10:29
<Spartan>	exit stop lowered ER2 @ 717.0 «« paper »»	10:31
	Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 717.0 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»	10:35
<NihabaAshi>	Long ER2 @ 718.550 -> small size	10:37
	lost in the forrest on this trade	10:38
	Long ER2 @ 718.50 -> small size
	That's a correction
<Spartan>	oil and gold are crashing, that is good for the markets right?	10:41
<megus>	apparantly	10:44
<NihabaAshi>	Exited ER2 Long @ 720.60 --> + 2.1
<megus>	that covered your loss, eh nihab?
<NihabaAshi>	Thought I would only be able to get +0.5 and got much more.	10:45
<megus>	that was 1 contract?
<NihabaAshi>	megus...I don't monitor prior losing trades because they are old news :)
	They are already in the book as a loss...I get over fast and move on.
<megus>	healthy thinking
<NihabaAshi>	Yeah...especially with ER2.	10:46
<megus>	never tried it
<pw998>	Nihabaashi, do you set a stop loss on a trade ?
<megus>	s&p's climbing up
	big par between spx and es	10:47
<NihabaAshi>	pw998...always do.
<Tim_a1>	whenever i have a loss in my mind, my next trade is a loss too
<NihabaAshi>	Hard stop - 4 points and mental stop -2 points
<Tim_a1>	er2?
<szubaark>	Buys ES @ 1388.25 «« paper »»
<megus>	4 points in such a volatile market, one's gotta be very confident about their moves.	10:48
<NihabaAshi>	I usually know at -1 point if I should stay or abandon the trade.
<megus>	very tempting to trade the retracements
<NihabaAshi>	That's a 1 point cushion for decision making before I dump it around -2 points if it gets there.	10:49
	The -4 points protects me because the internet isn't 100% perfect nor is my computer system or is my broker system if something crashes and I'm still in a trade that's moving fast against me.	10:50
<pw998>	good to know, thanks. I get stopped out more often than I want to lately :(
	shouldn't say want to :)	10:51
<NihabaAshi>	It can be unnerving sometimes...
<megus>	maybe you should review your stop strategy?
<pw998>	yes. I'm working on that
<megus>	i understand that nihab's acting out of experience and inner discipline rather than a computer preset order, right?	10:52
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 723.8 «« paper »»
<megus>	i'd only rely on preset orders than mental stops, i get too stressed and chicken out prematurely	10:53
<Spartan>	Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 722.3 --> + 1.5 «« paper »»	10:54
<NihabaAshi>	megus...correct
	However, I do have a few trades each day where I change my initial stop into a hard trailing stop.	10:55
<megus>	but that would be when you're already ITM
	right?
<NihabaAshi>	Yeah..only when the trade is profitable do I adjust my stops into a hard trailing stop (no mental trailing stop).	10:56
<megus>	heh
	seems like a bullish flag has formed	10:57
	(es)
<Tim_a1>	i do find, that my right trades tend to be right, right away
<megus>	tim, does this tendency affect your stop placement?	10:58
<Spartan>	exit stop lowered ER2 @ 722.6 «« paper »»
<Tim_a1>	it doesnt affect my hard stop 3-5 es (depending on support/resist levels) but it does affect my 'scratch' rather than stop, ie canceling before a stop is hit	10:59
<megus>	i see
	im struggling with the es, too afraid to enter trades cause of the stop placement	11:00
<Tim_a1>	the 'scratch' would be the 'mental' stop within the hard stop
<megus>	yeah
	i keep looking for good entries which would fit a 3 pt stop	11:01
<Tim_a1>	you have to factor the chart condition, the point where the trade could not be right, rather than a nice place to 'run stops' before reversing	11:02
<megus>	im not sure i understand :( can you rephrase that?
<NihabaAshi>	ER2 support area being tested here	11:03
<Spartan>	exit stop lowered ER2 @ 721.5 «« paper »»
<Tim_a1>	meaning it's good to have an absolute number of points stop for money management, but also adjust the stop to taken into account what's going on in the chart, ie not placing the stop in a place where they either target stops, or where the trade could still be right
	by target, i mean a place where it's obvious a lot of people will put stops, they love to run them	11:04
<megus>	of course
	my plan is finding a good trade	11:05
	and then matching it to my money management
	if it fits, it's good to go.. otherwise, i'll stay outside
<Spartan>	Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 721.5 --> + 2.3 «« paper »»	11:06
<Tim_a1>	if this were easy, nobody would work
<NihabaAshi>	Shorts ER2 @ 721.30 -> small size	11:09
	volatility contracting
	Hopefully it'll drift down some more on the contraction before it decides to do a volatility spike.	11:10
	I hate whole number exits	11:11
<Tim_a1>	spx 50 day ma 1390.81	11:12
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 720.0 «« paper »»
<szubaark>	market still retracing that last spike
<NihabaAshi>	I'm now getting some help from Gold, Oil and the DAX	11:14
<Spartan>	dax starting to look weak	11:15
<NihabaAshi>	Covered ER2 Short @ 719.90 --> + 1.4
	Too much of a fight in ER2.
<intowin>	any word on those last two up spikes? bern speach or other news?	11:16
<NihabaAshi>	ER2 in that pin ball maching price action mode :(	11:17
<Spartan>	Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 721 --> - 1 «« paper »»	11:18
	that was dumb
* NihabaAshi	is now known as Nihaba_snowcleanup	11:19
<Tim_a1>	$rut about 1 point over 50 day ma	11:20
<Spartan>	Long ER2 @ 721.9 «« paper »»	11:21
	Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 723.0 --> + 1.1 «« paper »»	11:23
	exit stop set ER2 @ 722.0 «« paper »»
	Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 722.0 --> + 0.1 «« paper »»	11:24
<Tim_a1>	dow is at 20 month ma - a lot of real crosscurrent at current index positioning across multiple timeframes, could be 'pinballish' and choppy	11:27
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 720.0 «« paper »»	11:30
	Covered all ER2 Short @ 721.0 --> - 1 «« paper »»	11:36
<szubaark>	setting up for a Volatility spike soon,hopefully to upside im Long	11:49
<Spartan>	Shorts ER2 @ 720.0 «« paper »»	11:56
* codehead_afk	is now known as codehead	11:58
<Spartan>	Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 721.0 --> - 1 «« paper »»	11:59
<robert>	Shorts ES @ 88.75	12:02
	Covered all ES Short @ 86.75 --> + 2	12:03
<Kn-Es>	lng 87	12:10
	out 7/8 88.5 +1.50
	s/l 86.25	12:11
<szubaark>	tough chop here at Intraday Highs	12:19
<silo>	wb KN
<Kn-Es>	srt 85.50	12:20
	hello silo
	s/l 87.50	12:21
<szubaark>	market shaking out as many participants as possible here before next move.	12:22
<Kn-Es>	yes	12:23
	i just opened the charts
	looks like we well be here for a while b4 nxt move	12:24
<szubaark>	Exited all Long ES at 1384.75 --> - 3.5 «« paper »»
	Shorts ES @ 1384.75 «« paper »»
	doing Reversal here looks weak
<Kn-Es>	out 7/8 84.00 + 1.50
<szubaark>	1383.50 Support against me	12:25
	Covered all Short ES at 1385.25 --> - 0.5 «« paper »»	12:28
	Buys ES @ 1385.25 «« paper »»
	Exited all Long ES at 1384.75 --> - 0.5 «« paper »»	12:34
	Shorts ES @ 1384.75 «« paper »»
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.	12:35
<szubaark>	Covered all Short ES at 1386.50 --> - 1.75 «« paper »»	12:38
	Buys ES @ 1386.50 «« paper »»
<Kn-Es>	srt 87.50	12:44
	s.l 89	12:45
	out 7/8 86.50 + 1.00	12:46
<szubaark>	geez, almost 2 hours of chop since that morning spike	12:50
	missed that spike to upside as it happened so fast and sudden	12:51
<Kn-Es>	:)	12:53
	pirce has no patterns right now, so anything is fast and sudden
<pw998>	so did I .. let's continue watching paint dry :)
<szubaark>	hehe.. they'll put u to sleep then Pop it again	12:56
* Nihaba_snowcleanup	is now known as NihabaAshi	13:09
<Kn-Es>	out 1 86.00 + 1.50	13:17
<Tim_a1>	rock paper sissors	13:18
<Kn-Es>	:)	13:19
<Tim_a1>	that's all that really being played at this exact moment	13:21
<Kn-Es>	we may see some 83
	shortly
<megus>	seems like it's moving between the strong s/r lines	13:25
<Kn-Es>	out 1 84.50 + 3.00	13:35
<megus>	nice kn	13:36
<Kn-Es>	out 1 82.50 + 5.00	13:37
	thanks
<szubaark>	Exited all Long ES at 1383 --> - 3.5 «« paper »»
	Shorts ES @ 1383 «« paper »»
<megus>	Shorts ES @ 1383.25 -> small size «« paper »»
<Kn-Es>	tp 76.50 ( + 10.00)	13:38
	s/l 86.50
	0.00
<szubaark>	taking some good whacks today, tough price action for me
<pdays>	Long ER2 @ 715.1	13:44
	Exited all ER2 Long @ 715.6 --> + 0.5
<codehead>	YM nearing .500 retracement on the 15 min	13:46
	12688, hit 12692	13:47
<Kn-Es>	interesting price action between es/oex	13:51
	rev 8250
	out last 87.50 52.50 + 5.00	13:52
<megus>	Covered all ES Short @ 1383 --> + 0.25 «« paper »»
WRB Analysis	Learn More
<Kn-Es>	lng 82.50
	s.l 80.50
<NihabaAshi>	ER2 found support aroung 716.00	13:53
<Kn-Es>	should atleast touch 84	13:56
	rev 80.50	14:03
	out 3/4 78.50 + 2.00	14:05
	out 2 78.50 + 2.00	14:06
	s.l 81.50
<robert>	Long ES @ 77.25	14:09
<Kn-Es>	out 1 77.50 + 3.00
<robert>	Exited all ES Long @ 78.25 --> + 1	14:10
<Kn-Es>	out 1 78.00 + 2.50	14:14
	s.l 82.50	14:15
	out 2 75.50 + 5.00	14:23
	tp 72.50+- (8.00)	14:24
	s.l 78.50 ( +2.00)
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info ->  I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.	14:38
<Kn-Es>	out last 78.50 +2.00	14:43
<szubaark>	Covered all Short ES at 1379 --> + 4 «« paper »»	14:44
<Kn-Es>	srt 79	14:46
	2 con
	s.l 81	14:47
<szubaark>	nice trades KN
<Kn-Es>	thanks szubaark	14:48
	urs too
<szubaark>	made some mistakes today, chased that morning spike for -3.50 and caught wrong side of Volatility spike	14:49
<Kn-Es>	:(
	got flu, so didnt trade all day, now feeling little bit better	14:50
	only that my eyes are killing me
	tp1 77 tp2 76 sl 81 . good trading to everyone. see u all tomorrow	14:55
<werner>	later kn	14:56
<NihabaAshi>	Take care all and see all tomorrow	15:46
* NihabaAshi	is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* sep34	is now known as sep34_away	16:01
<werner>	gn all	16:39
<X>	#FuturesTrades Info -> I am only trading the first few hours of each trading day for the remainder of the week due to tax preparations.	16:44
* DisconnectedSession	Close: Wed Feb 27 16:56:31 2008	16:56
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Google:	#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of  #FuturesTrades.

We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ   

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

 questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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