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February Trade Log

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#FuturesTrades February 1st Friday 2008 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+20.30	+20.30	+437.80
$2,030	$2,030	$43,380

Profitable Trade

0941am - 0949am est

Losing Trade

1331pm - 1333pm est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Fri Feb 01 09:24:53 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:24

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<cwellsi> Nesi > thanks for the mbia/ambac post 09:27

<drt> gm guys 09:31

<ripsboy> gm all... 09:33

<base> GM 09:34

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 716.80 -> small size 09:37

tough entry...did a little too much "over-analysis" that caused me to miss my preferred entry price. 09:38

Covered ER2 Short @ 717.50 --> - 0.7 09:39

<KN-ES> Shorts ES @ 82.50

Covered 3/4 ES Short @ 81 --> + 1.5 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 718.00 -> medium size 09:41

<KN-ES> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 81.50 --> + 1

<NihabaAshi> So far I feel like I'm a little behind the 8 ball on my entries :( 09:42

<Nesi> some pinball going on

<KN-ES> Long ES @ 80.75 09:43

<Brutus> 1000/1500 Dec Construction Spending 09:44

New Construction -0.6% +0.1%

1000/1500 Jan ISM Mfg Index

Manufacturing Business Index 47 47.7

1000/1500 Jan Reuters/University of Michigan Survey, final

Sentiment Index End month 78 75.5

Sentiment Index Mid Month 80.5

<KN-ES> Exited 3/4 ES Long @ 82 --> + 1.25

<NihabaAshi> Geeesh

Pin Ball Machine city in ER2 09:45

Exited 3/4 ER2 Long @ 719.40 --> + 1.4

<Nesi> NQ lagging

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1383.50 «« paper »»

<Nesi> geez 09:46

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 86.75 +6 09:48

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1387.50 --> + 4 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 724.40 --> + 6.4 09:49

Trading Edge:
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If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<Pepe> nice NIha

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 87.25 +6.50 09:50

<Brutus> vn guys

<KN-ES> s/l 76

thanks Brutus

should reach 64 09:52

94

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1387.75 «« paper »» 09:53

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 87.75 +7.00

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1387.75 «« paper »» 09:54

<Nesi> *DJ Yahoo Cut To Neutral From Positive By Susquehanna >YHOO

(Dow Jones 02/01 09:53:46)

numbers in few min 09:57

<KN-ES> s/l 81.50 09:58

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1387.75 --> 0 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Another crazy spike 10:00

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 91.5

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 10:01

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 91.50 ----------10.25

its +10

<szubaark> nice KN

<KN-ES> thanks kn 10:02

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 723.40 -> small size

<KN-ES> thanks szubaark

<NihabaAshi> trade error

<Nesi> DJ Bank Bailout Effort Focused On Ambac - CNBC

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:02:43)

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1392.75 «« paper »» 10:03

<Nesi> Bank Bailout Effort Focused On Ambac - CNBC

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:02:43)

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 727.20 --> + 3.8

<cwellsi> The Federal Reserve says it will provide {$60} billion in fresh cash to commercial banks in two auctions in February and will keep holding auctions every other week for as long as needed. 10:04

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1392.75 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> 1/6 .... out at 94 ----------14.25

s/l 84 10:05

<cwellsi> guess you can't fight all of the liquidity coming into the market

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1392.75 --> 0 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> 98 next

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1396.75 10:07

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1393.50 --> - 28.5 10:10

<Nesi> J Moody's: Some Bond Insurers Will Likely Be Downgraded 10:11

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:11:16)

<startrader> 50% retrace from 12.11.07 highs to 1.22.08 lows at 96. 10:12

<KN-ES> 94 add 10:13

<Nesi> *DJ Moody's Bond Insurance Industry Likely To Be Restructured

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:13:19)

* subq almost forgot chart links but you guys know the link by now or should - http://www.charthub.com/chart/search/mar ket+profile+chart

<KN-ES> 3/4 oat at 95 +1 10:14

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 728.30 -> small size

<Nesi> Moody's Losses For 2006 Vintage Subprime Mortgages 14%-18%

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:14:12)

Moody's: Triple AAA Capital Requires For Bond Insurers To Rise 10:15

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:14:50)

<startrader> Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1392.50 --> + 4.25

holding 1 for awhile. 10:16

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1392 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 728.40 --> + 0.1 10:18

Too weird of a price action for me to hang around much longer :(

<KN-ES> otu 1/4 92.5 10:19

<cwellsi> lol vintage subprime 10:20

<Nesi> no power 10:22

news i post earlier, on CNBC now

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1392 «« paper »»

<rickf> short es 1391 paper

<Nesi> we got it early

<cwellsi> Nesi > thanks for your posts

<Nesi> look the reaction

*DJ Moody's: Limited Liquidity Risk For Monolines Under Review 10:23

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:22:28)

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1387 --> + 5 «« paper »»

<rickf> exit 1/2 es 1387 paper +4 10:24

<NihabaAshi> In hindsight, I now see how lucky my exit out of that Long position was at a +0.1 tick profit 10:26

Just realized it was a trade error :(

Should have been short via a signal a few intervals earlier.

It's one of those days of missing a lot of good opportunities... 10:27

<rickf> exit remainder es 1385 +6 paper

<KN-ES> nice trade rickf

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1386.50 --> + 10.25 10:28

<rickf> ty

<KN-ES> cool

<rickf> nice

<startrader> ty

<rickf> short es 1384 paper 10:31

<KN-ES> last cont s/l hit 84 ............. +3.25

<rickf> exit 1/2 es 1382 +2 paper 10:33

<NihabaAshi> However, with the excellent volatility...the stuff I am able to catch is still worth getting out of bed today...even while nursing an injured back. 10:36

<Nesi> Democratic Sen. Kohl: Will Scrutinize Microsoft/Yahoo Deal

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:36:30)

<rickf> exit remainder es 1383 +1 paper 10:38

done for now - gym time

<Nesi> CME Group Reports Jan 2008 Volume Averaged 14.3 M Contracts Per Day, Up 65 %, Recording Second-Highest Monthly Volume Ever 10:39

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:39:45)

amazing uh 10:40

<KN-ES> 84 long

sz 10:41

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1382.50 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> s/l 81 10:42

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 716.20 -> small size

Covered ER2 Short @ 715.90 --> + 0.3 10:44

Be back later...my back is getting stiff again :(

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 10:45

<Nesi> BUSH on tv in an hour 10:49

Moody's: AAA Capital Requirements For Bond Insurers To Rise

(Dow Jones 02/01 10:49:08)

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1378.75 --> + 3.75 «« paper »»

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 714.9 «« paper »» 10:50

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 717.0 --> + 2.1 «« paper »» 10:52

Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 717.8 --> + 2.9 «« paper »» 10:54

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 716.5 --> + 1.6 «« paper »» 10:59

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1382 «« paper »» 11:03

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:12

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1382 «« paper »» 11:16

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1384.50

Covered all ES Short @ 1383.50 --> + 1 11:18

fat finger exit but probably for the best considering time of day on a Friday. 11:19

<KN-ES> 83 long sz

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1382 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:21

Shorts ES @ 1383.50 «« paper »» 11:25

Covered all Short ES at 1384.75 --> - 1.25 «« paper »» 11:26

Buys ES @ 1384.75 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> 1/2 out at 85 .... +2

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1384.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:28

Shorts ES @ 1384.75 «« paper »»

<KN-ES> 1/2 out at 84 ...... +1 11:30

s/l 80

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1384 -> small size

Covered all ES Short @ 1382.50 --> + 1.5 11:31

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1384.75 «« paper »» 11:32

<startrader> diverging signals from 15 and 60 min and 50% a little higher. too much risk.

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1384.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:33

time for Friday Chop

* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away

<KN-ES> :)

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1386.25 -> small size 11:40

exit stop set ES @ 1388 11:42

Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1388 --> - 1.75 11:46

<Nesi> Bush soon 11:47

he is on

<KN-ES> s/l 83 11:51

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1386.75 -> small size 12:01

can't get any more low risk then this.

<Nesi> *DJ Ford Motor Jan Total Sales Dn 4.1% >F 12:03

(Dow Jones 02/01 12:01:10)

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 12:04

<startrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1386 --> + 0.75

this pa stinks.

<Brutus> GS advising Yahoo hmmmm 12:06

<Nesi> J NY Insurance Regulator: Talks Continuing On Bond Insurers 12:09

(Dow Jones 02/01 12:09:22)

DJ Bush: There Are `Troubling' Signs US Economy Is Weakening

(Dow Jones 02/01 12:09:44)

NY Insurance Regulator: Deals Are Complicated, Take Time 12:10

(Dow Jones 02/01 12:10:04)

<KN-ES> s/l hit 83 ....... 0 12:13

srt 84 1 con 12:15

out 85 -1 12:17

<cFox> What is s/l, KN-ES?

<KN-ES> stop loss 12:18

<cFox> ok, thx.

<KN-ES> u welcome

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1384 -> small size 12:19

if this 83.25 breaks this will be a good move. 12:20

<codehead> crude selling hard 12:22

dropped a buck real fast, gettign some bounce 12:23

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1382.50 --> + 1.5 12:24

<cFox> dumping oil while eating lunch?

<startrader> holding one.

Shorts ES @ 1384.50 -> Add 12:25

Covered all ES Short @ 1385.25 --> - 2 12:26

<KiwiRoo> Triangle on ES 12:44

<codehead> crude (QM) 88.60 12:53

<NihabaAshi_away> Long ER2 @ 722.90 -> small size 13:27

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1387.50

small, risky but great r/r if we turn back into the pivot established by the 60 min chart. 13:28

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 722.10 --> - 0.8 13:30

Shorts ER2 @ 722.00 -> small size 13:31

Looks like I'm lost in the forrest (very dense trading area). 13:32

Covered ER2 Short @ 723.10 --> - 1.1 13:33

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 723.10

<startrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1388.50 --> - 1 13:34

Shorts ES @ 1389.25

larger size, popped the high to the 62% retrace of days move for 1st time today. 13:35

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 722.10 --> - 1 13:36

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1387.25 --> + 2

good 1 minute volume on the reversal.

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 722.00 -> small size 13:40

Exited ER2 Long @ 723.10 --> + 1.1 13:44

<Nesi> GM Reports 252,565 Deliveries in January, Up 2.1 Percent=2 13:45

(PR Newswire 02/01 13:45:18)

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1388.75 --> + 0.5 13:47

Shorts ES @ 1389.25 -> small size 13:48

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1387.75 --> + 1.5 13:49

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1388 --> + 1.25 13:55

Shorts ES @ 1385.25 13:59

<rickf> shorts es 1385 paper 14:00

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1384.75 --> + 0.5 14:03

<rickf> exits es 1385 +0 paper 14:05

feh

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 14:07

<startrader> this thing has no pulse. need some magic rick! 14:08

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 724.50 -> small size 14:09

2 contracts only

<ItalianSharp> it's been a battle between bulls and bears today 14:11

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 724.60 --> + 0.1

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1388.75 14:12

Covered all ES Short @ 1389.75 --> - 1 14:28

late post, kids home on snow day and gotta go play in the snow. 14:29

<rickf> nice, all we have is freezing rain and fog :( 14:32

<Nesi> : PRESS RELEASE: Moody's Withdraws Prime-1 Rtg Of Altamira Funding Llc>SAN.MC 14:41

(Dow Jones 02/01 14:41:25)

DJ UPDATE: Moody's Says Some Bond Insurer Ratings Face Cut 14:57

(Dow Jones 02/01 14:54:39)

just update

<rainer> Shorts ER2 @ 728.8 15:27

<rickf> k all have a great weekend 15:45

<rainer> Covered all ER2 Short @ 731.5 --> - 2.7 15:49

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 731.60 -> small size 15:50

Gold not looking so hot right now is the last few minutes 15:57

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1395.75 16:00

Sponsor:
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<NihabaAshi> ER2 now on its own with other key markets closed 16:01

<startrader> thought they might pull the rug out after equities closed. 16:02

Covered all ES Short @ 1397 --> - 1.25 16:03

<NihabaAshi> After all the excitment the past few 5 weeks or so...

I don't think its going to be an exciting close for the Eminis :) 16:04

<Nesi> have a great weekend all :)

<NihabaAshi> I think the floor folks are looking forward to the weekend.

<startrader> what better time to have an exciting time when no one is expecting it:) 16:05

<KiwiRoo> hehe... great close yesterday....today is ZzZ Zz

<NihabaAshi> It's been a great week of trading and incredible (unforgettable) volatility.

Hopefully it remains and continues for February. 16:06

<KiwiRoo> oi oi oi... late buyers.. 16:07

are they trying to make new high?

on ES. . 16:08

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION =========== 16:09

DJIA up 81.29 points to 12731.49

NASDAQ up 23.00 points to 2412.86

S&P 500 up 15.69 points to 1394.32

10-year T-note up 3/32 at 105 14/32 yield 3.585

NYMEX Spot Crude down $0.72 at $89.03/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro down 0.0046 at 1.4798

<ItalianSharp> weird day today

not worth documenting IMO...lots of fakeouts all day 16:10

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<startrader> that was anti-climatic and very fitting end to the week. gweekend all. 16:12

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 731.80 --> + 0.2 16:14

<KiwiRoo> right down to the wire niha.. :P 16:15

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...didn't want to go longer either. 16:16

Hate holding a day trade over the weekend...too risky.

Take care all and see all next weekend.

Meant Monday :)

<startrader> just like mr blowup on utube!

<NihabaAshi> I heard he's bouncing back. 16:17

<startrader> gotta check it out, good weekend.

<NihabaAshi> If so, hope February gets him back to his December numbers.

<KiwiRoo> c u mate...take care.

<Brutus> cya monday :) 16:18

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 16:22

<ItalianSharp> Niha & all have a great weekend 17:27

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 17:30

* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Feb 01 20:16:26 2008 20:16

Sponsor:
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Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.