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#FuturesTrades January 30th Tuesday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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Consumer Confidence

Profit/Loss Statement

The Consumer Confidence report at 10am est is the usual precursor to a mini-trend and sometimes the mini-trend develops into a trend day with shallow pullbacks for re-entries or what I often call creeper trends involving small bodies (small ranges) that gives you the feeling its gone as far as it can go...

To only watch prices continue creeping in the same direction.

These are usually the blow out trading days for traders that lack discipline, counter-trend trading or put too much emphasis on overbought/oversold indicators.

Today was just several mini trends that should have given Longs and Shorts several opportunities to profit via nice swing points.

Last of all, with Consumer Confidence report today, FOMC meeting begin today leading into tomorrow's heavily filled morning of economic news to a climax via the late afternoon FOMC Announcement...I strongly feel many traders placed their bets today in looking for further movement to the upside for tomorrow.

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of January...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Tue Jan 30 09:26:55 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:26

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<pat255> futs losing staem a bit @ opening.. 09:27

<jperl> ER2 VWAP data....

yesterday: VWAP= 795.59 09:28

<pat255> ty jper

<jperl> 1 week: 790.89

1 month: 789.05

1 year: 743.62

yw

<pat255> gm all... 09:29

<PapaJon> gm all

<eminitrader> hi all

<szubaark> gm

<pat255> hiya emini

<eminitrader> morn pat 09:30

<RussellDaytrade> all them numbers going up, JP, (i see support at 743 :) ) 09:31

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 798.00 -> large size 09:32

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1429.75 09:36

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1787.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 09:37

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 796.90 --> + 1.1 09:38

<pat255> vn guys ..

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1427.75 --> + 2

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 796.00 --> + 2 09:41

Volatility still a little low. 09:43

Volatility should start to pick up more by 0955am est

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 796.80 --> + 1.2 09:45

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<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1788.50 --> - 1 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

<NihabaAshi> Odds started going against me had I kepted those remainders.

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1788.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 09:46

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1428.75 --> + 1 09:47

<szubaark> looking for Overnight high Stop POP

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Price ranges getting tighter (smaller) = declining volatility setting up for a Volatility Price Spike 09:48

<szubaark> Im LONG, hopefully to the Upside :)

<werner> gm all 09:50

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1785.50 --> - 3 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 09:51

:((

Shorts NQ @ 1785.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

CHOP so far

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.70 -> small size 09:54

2 contracts only

<jperl> ER2 at yesterdays VWAP 795.59

<asuni> rep 5min 09:55

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 795.4 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 09:56

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 795.20 --> - 0.5

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1785.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

ES dumping now 09:57

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1426.75 --> + 3 09:58

holding 1

<pat255> vn emini wtg

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1783.75 --> + 1.75 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

<eminitrader> thx pat 09:59

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.3 --> + 0.9 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

<szubaark> go emini

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.80 -> small size

<eminitrader> thx much szu

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 796.10 -> Add 10:00

Declining volatility again 10:03

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1428.25 --> + 1.5

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1796.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 797.30 --> + 1.2

<szubaark> Nice Niha Longs 10:04

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 797.60 --> + 1.8

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1786.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â»

exit stop set NQ @ 1786.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:05

keepig it tight.. either goes or im out

Exited all Long NQ at 1786.50 --> 0 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:06

:(

<eminitrader> was kinda tight 10:07

<szubaark> yeah.. i was saying they either take off or im out 10:08

<eminitrader> :))

u r right though ...taking too much time here 10:09

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 797.10 --> + 1.3 10:10

I'm already at 2x my profit goal.

<eminitrader> :))

<asuni> vn niha

<eminitrader> happy golfing... 10:11

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<NihabaAshi> I'm officially now in profit protection mode...1 contract only trades for the remainder of the day.

<szubaark> hehe Niha

Buys NQ @ 1786.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:15

exit stop set NQ @ 1786.50 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:16

Tight STOP again

Exited all Long NQ at 1786.50 --> 0 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:24

Buys NQ @ 1789.25 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 10:30

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:32

<RussellDaytrade> buyer below 796.5 10:44

if gets there

<NihabaAshi> Hi szu...I just sent you a pm at the new forum to answer your volatility question.

Shorts ER2 @ 767.50 -> small size 10:49

<szubaark> ok..thx Niha 10:51

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 797.20 --> - 29.7

Ooops...my short entry was incorrect while the exit was correct. 10:52

Will leave it as is :)

+0.30 on the contract.

<pat255> S 97.5 10:55

er

sorry that was 97.7 10:56

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:59

<RussellDaytrade> range expansion time? 11:10

<jperl> done for the morning.... 11:14

didn't have a good morning....mostly losses with position size recovery....

not the way I like to trade....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-30/JP ERL_011.png

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 800.50 -> small size 11:15

I missed this up move after exiting my Short position because of personal stuff :( 11:16

Exited ER2 Long @ 800.70 --> + 0.2 11:18

<szubaark> 1794 Target 11:19

looking for breakout, i had to sit thru a 4 point pullback against me 11:20

need one more Volatility surge to exit (WRB) 11:24

<RussellDaytrade> i doubt it'll get that low, but i have a t of 797.4 by 12:47 et 11:54

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:11

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1786 --> - 3.25 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 12:17

my Bias of Overnight high test gave me narrow thinking which market destroyed IMMEDIATELY 12:19

time to call it a day.. 12:20

* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1430.50 12:31

<pat255> good entry emini..thinking S here... 12:40

<eminitrader> trend is up pat ...holding for test of high 12:41

<RussellDaytrade> i think that move down to 798.2 about satisfied and fulfilled the t expectancy for that setup.

<eminitrader> trend may change ...but not yet

<pat255> ty emini

<RussellDaytrade> its got another few minutes remaining, and somewtimes these are fulfilled with a rapid drop/rise at he last moments, but i do not think this will be one of those instances. 12:43

<eminitrader> thats a 50% pullback...good entry for long ...if it gets there RD

<pat255> on 5 min chart? 12:44

<RussellDaytrade> yes, was doing other stuff this am, keeping a more distant eye on it. you refering to the 798.5 level EM, or the 797.5 area, as a 50% pb, etc? 12:45

<eminitrader> for pullbacks...time frames dont matter pat 1,2,3,5....

<pat255> k...

<eminitrader> talking abt pullbacks in daily swings 12:46

no 798.20

798.20 - 797.50...low risk ...long entry 12:47

<pat255> back to office ty all

<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx, (got lazy on doing the math), see that now. my noraml preference is to enter at more OS/OB levels, so i may wait for such, in case its happens, etc. 12:48

<eminitrader> os/ob ?...sorry 12:49

<RussellDaytrade> haven't totally written-off...Oversold/Overbought...797. 4 being hit.

<eminitrader> k ... 12:50

<RussellDaytrade> we are now at volume nadir for the day, thus far. 12:51

i see i misread the price level, from earlier, price got to 798.7, not 798.2, misread grid, etc. 12:53

not likely to occur today, but am going to make a longer Intraday target. its based upon a seperate model from my noraml targets, and is 'longer-dated', even though still intraday. haven;t made a lot of calls on it, (knowingly, some of those calls the last few days no doubt were related, but didn't use model directly with intent, like now)... 13:00

<codehead> long ER 799.40 <paper> 13:02

<RussellDaytrade> anyway, here goes, 793, by 13:20 or so. most of these are going to seem 'very unlikely', even when they have a 'better' chance of fulfilling, and i i said, today, i think its a slim probability, just wanting to begin its incorporation more often into my work.

since the times are increased by a large factor, as is price, i expect time component to be off, ie, allowing more latitude in this regard, even while generally expecting price component to closely fulfill expectations, most of the time. 13:04

793 would represent new LOD today, so, as stated, today, it seems less likely to fulfill, but we shall see if it comes close, or, how close it comes! 13:06

<codehead> stopped ER -1.0 <paper> 13:08

<eminitrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1429.25 --> - 1.25 13:09

<RussellDaytrade> well, they took a look up there at 800, and got vertigo, had to go back and touch mother earth again. 13:10

<eminitrader> lol

<RussellDaytrade> ok, maybe THAT was the fulfillment of 797.4, close enough, late by 20 minutes or so, either way, satisfactory to me. if you look at the chart you can clearly see what i refered to earlier, about how sometimes they drop quickly into targets at the last moments,etc. kinda thought it may have happened on the drop that begin at near 12:35. 13:15

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1430.25 13:17

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:20

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 798.70 -> small size 13:34

Exited ER2 Long @ 798.10 --> - 0.6 13:35

Long ER2 @ 798.90 -> small size 13:42

Exited ER2 Long @ 800.10 --> + 1.2 13:48

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1432.25 --> + 2

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 799.8 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 13:54

Covered all ER2 Short @ 799.5 --> + 0.3 Â«Â« paper Â»Â» 14:04

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:32

<RussellDaytrade> don't know what complexion it may traverse, but i gotta 797 t working with about 15 minutes remaining. 14:33

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1431.75 --> + 1.5 14:49

no more patience

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<RussellDaytrade> good patience on that trade. i'd say you extracted good value. 14:50

<eminitrader> was a 2 tick stop ...so guess it was a good one 14:51

<RussellDaytrade> yes, and the value is refer to is relative to waht it offered in the timeframe you were in trade. midday markets usually move slower then open and closes, pateince can be a virtue! 14:53

<eminitrader> very true 14:55

<jperl> Only three trades this afternoon....but better results than this morning... 15:43

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-30/JP ERL_012.png

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:44

<dbeck> first time in room... is this an active room? 15:56

<RussellDaytrade> hi Db, it varies day to day. 15:57

<dbeck> hey......are there any rooms which are more active.... I trade all th eminis but focus on the ym and ES 15:58

<RussellDaytrade> good question, i don't know, but i think this is worth checking out. 15:59

<dbeck> ok..... i guess the day is over so its quiet now.....I will check it out 2moro in the am 16:00

<RussellDaytrade> go ahead and start contributing at will, and see what happens.

<dbeck> thanks......... 16:01

<RussellDaytrade> u betcha.

interview with Jim Rogers coming up on cnbc, they've teased it for the past hour or more, may be worht watching. 16:02

<werner> gn all 16:11

<NihabaAshi> Take care all, its been another good trading day and see all tomorrow. 16:12

<RussellDaytrade> so long everyone 16:13

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Jan 30 16:18:37 2007 16:18

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

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CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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