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#FuturesTrades January 18th Friday 2008 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+0.40	+194.30	+194.30
$40	$19,430	$19,430

Profitable Trade

0935am - 0940am est

Losing Trade

0933am - 0935am est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Fri Jan 18 09:25:25 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:25

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<rickf> wow the es is looking real weak this last 30 mins or so

* rickf figured we'd see a bunch of short covering early 09:26

<ripsboy> gm folks... 09:27

<rickf> gm

<Nesi> wow 09:28

<rickf> any news?

none that i can tell

* hum_g is now known as nqcruiser

<PapaJon> gm all 09:29

<lumenPharmer> after daily range break we made the full moves, er to 680, and nq to 1850 09:30

<nqcruiser> any looking at nq here

<lumenPharmer> now the fight is on, i hope ;)

<drt> gm everyone 09:31

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 684.30 -> small size 09:33

intuition trade

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1344.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Should have been made a point higher :(

<werner> gm all 09:34

<rickf> hey werner

<NihabaAshi> Doesn't look like I'll survive this pin ball machine price action with the poor entry 09:35

<werner> hi rickf

<Brutus> anybody got YM updating in esignal on old package?

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 685.50 --> - 1.2

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 685.50

Exited ER2 Long @ 687.10 --> + 1.6 09:40

Be back later 09:41

:(

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<Brutus> 1000/1500 Dec Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators 09:48

Leading Index -0.4%

1000/1500 Dec Reuters/University of Michigan Survey, prelim

Sentiment Index End month 75.5

Sentiment Index Mid Month 74.5

Trading Edge:
Strategies
If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<startrader> Long ES @ 1341.50 09:56

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1347 --> + 5.5 10:00

<rickf> nice call st

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1347.25 --> - 3 «« paper »»

<startrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1346 --> + 4.5 10:01

<rickf> was experimenting with fibs and had "mentally" put a buy in at 42

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1340.75 «« paper »» 10:02

<startrader> still have support here but want to let the news soak in. 10:03

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1347 --> - 6.25 «« paper »» 10:08

Buys ES @ 1347 «« paper »»

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1347.50

Covered all ES Short @ 1349 --> - 1.5 10:11

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1355 10:13

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1352 --> + 3 10:16

<rickf> excellent -- as before i had a "mental sell" at 54 based on fib and what rsi was telling me 10:17

<startrader> nice catch em. Got kids home today and distractin, going bowling. Taking their piggybanks for wagers.

<rickf> wouldve een a good trade

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1350 --> + 5

thx s...see u ahd a couple of good ones today :)) 10:18

have fun

<startrader> Also yestdays 12:15 est 15 min ivb holding the market. Participant cue. 10:19

<eminitrader> yes r ...55 price range was an nice short entry...i think this is the high of the day...unless it acts differently given options expiry

<rickf> em - yep....had it confirmed a few different ways, which made it pretty convincing 10:21

* sb thanks the dax

<eminitrader> Q is r un in for the ride :))

<rickf> plus finally starting to explore fib retracements now 10:22

<eminitrader> exit stop lowered ES @ 1355.50

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1355 10:27

dont like this pa

likely bounce from here.. 10:30

hope my stop hlds

<rickf> i'd exit at 49 10:32

(were i in that is - takle profit)

es is just hanging around

<eminitrader> hold just 3 r ...lets see if we get new lows

<rickf> oh onono....I would exit at 49 if I was in. You know what you're doing :) 10:33

<eminitrader> know what u mean :)

<rickf> lol

<eminitrader> just comments ..trying to kill time

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1347 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:36

<eminitrader> Covered ES Short @ 1445 --> - 90 10:39

oops

<rickf> heh

<eminitrader> Covered ES Short @ 1345 --> + 10

hld 1

<rickf> nice run

<Brutus> wtg emt

<eminitrader> thx r B 10:40

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1344 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> that week bounce of supp @ 49...actually made patient :) 10:41

that kinda indicated a loss of buying power 10:42

<rickf> braver man than me -- i'd have been happy with the 5 points taken from entry; i agreed w/you the pa was kinda goofy for a while, which is why i would've exited

<szubaark> Possible test of yersturday low@1335

<eminitrader> gien that its options expiry ..made it even worse to read 10:43

<rickf> true

<eminitrader> i think we brek that too szu

expection 20-30 on the ES

mean 1320-1330

key is if support will hld @ 1327 ..if that breks next level of major suoo 1316...expecting the mrkt to test that level... 10:45

and then set-up a pullbeck next week...around 70-100 pionts

1327-1316 + SP not ES

now i may very well be wrong and mrkt may bounce off from here... 10:47

but i have painted a high probability scenario given my read of the charts.. 10:48

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1345 --> - 1 «« paper »»

Buys ES @ 1345 «« paper »»

<TraderO> Shorts ER2 @ 682.8 10:49

<rickf> back in a while 10:50

<TraderO> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 681.8 --> + 1 10:52

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1342 --> - 3 «« paper »» 10:53

Shorts ES @ 1342 «« paper »»

<TraderO> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 680.8 --> + 2 10:55

<Nesi> full day today?? 11:00

<eminitrader> globex yes

<Nesi> thx

<jperl> crappy morning....trades here.... 11:06

http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-01-18/JP ERL_013.jpg

<Nesi> nice to see u again jperl :)

<jperl> I've been away for about a month in the sunny South

<Nesi> FL ? 11:07

<jperl> yes

<Nesi> i am in Sunny Isles :)

<silo> jperl !!! long time no see

<jperl> also southern Carribbean

feel kind of rusty being away so long 11:08

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1331 --> + 24 11:18

tahts a supp ort on SP @ 1327 as i mentioned earlier

<szubaark> very nice. u hitting some big #'s lately

<Brutus> yep good one

<eminitrader> thx szu..

<szubaark> SP March contract or Continuous? 11:19

<eminitrader> so be careaful selling in this area guys...if this breks its 1317 on the SP or if this holds expect a major bounce to the upside

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1334 --> + 8 «« paper »» 11:20

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<Brutus> nice one szu

<eminitrader> continuous szu..

and nice short by the wauy :) 11:21

have a good wkend all 11:23

<szubaark> thanks.. having tough time reading this today 11:27

<Nesi> Bush about to go on 11:31

Bush ON 11:32

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:37

<Brutus> 01/18/2008 11:34 *DJ Bush: Stimulus Package Should Be Around 1% Of GDP 11:38

<Guest35179> Shorts ER2 @ 669.1 11:56

Covered all ER2 Short @ 667.9 --> + 1.2 11:57

Long ER2 @ 673.2 12:04

Exited all ER2 Long @ 672.4 --> - 0.8 12:06

<werner> . 12:20

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 672.1. 12:22

Covered all ER2 Short @ 671.8 --> + 672.1. - 671.8 12:23

Shorts ER2 @ 672.1 12:24

Shorts ER2 @ 672.1

Covered all ER2 Short @ 671.8 --> + 0.3 12:25

thats better

<Nesi> feels to me trend now is up 12:28

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1328.25 «« paper »» 12:52

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 676.50 «« paper »» 12:55

<pdays> Long ES @ 1329 12:56

<TraderO> Shorts ER2 @ 675.7 12:57

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 675.2 --> + 0.5 13:00

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 676.7 --> - 1 13:02

<pdays> Exited all ES Long @ 1331.5 --> + 2.5 13:04

<Guest35179> Long ER2 @ 678.5 13:05

Exited all ER2 Long @ 679.6 --> + 1.1 13:06

Shorts ER2 @ 679.3 13:07

Covered all ER2 Short @ 678.6 --> + 0.7 13:08

<Nesi> crazy :) 13:15

<szubaark> looking for low test on es

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 13:23

<startrader> Long ES @ 1325.75 13:32

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1328.25 --> 0 «« paper »»

<startrader> Exited 3/4 ES Long @ 1328 --> + 2.25 13:33

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1327.25 «« paper »»

<startrader> Long ES @ 1324.25 -> Add 13:38

Exited all ES Long @ 1323.50 --> - 3 13:39

<szubaark> typical option exp crap type of day

this will be my last trade, cant watch this anymore 13:42

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1327.25 «« paper »» 13:44

Covered all Short ES at 1327.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:46

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 14:02

<startrader> Long ES @ 1424.75 14:06

Exited 3/4 ES Long @ 1327 --> - 97.75 14:09

<rickf> back....missed all the fun it seems. :( 14:10

<startrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1330.25 --> - 94.5 14:16

Long ES @ 1323.50 14:26

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1326 --> + 2.5 14:27

Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1324.50 --> + 1 14:29

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1324.50 «« paper »» 14:31

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1324.50 «« paper »»

<startrader> Long ES @ 1321.75 14:32

Exited all ES Long @ 1320 --> - 1.75 14:33

Long ES @ 1319.50 14:34

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1321 --> + 3.5 «« paper »»

<startrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1322 --> + 2.5 14:36

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1323.25 --> + 3.75 14:38

<szubaark> nice star 14:39

<startrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1324 --> + 4.5

ty, jumped in too quick on the first trade, those last 2 60 min bodies will control the action for awhile. 14:40

<rickf> geez i have had some great entries on 'mental trades' today.... 15:20

amazing what you can glean by watching the action 15:21

<startrader> Best to do is watch aciton and volume on large timeframes with no indicators.. 15:26

<rickf> only thing i've been dabbling w/today are fib lines

want to see how some other indicators pan out, but i'll do that over the weekend 15:27

compare/contrast everything

<startrader> keeep fibs very simple, spent over 10 years realizing that. Stick to one retrace level at a time. 15:29

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<rickf> good point - tho i found it helpful to see all 5 lines and how the price moved around 'em....kind of enlightening, really. 15:30

<startrader> Stick to daily highs and lows during regular trading hour, I like to to stick to cash hours 9:30-4:00.

<rickf> i started with the overnight high/low for the morning, then redrew it (i think) twice today after some of the BIG moves 15:32

will try that approach too

k guys i'm out for the day -- long weekend beckons :) 15:38

<startrader> Look at todays h to l. 38% has been holding all afternoon.

<rickf> star: yep it is

<startrader> One last think rick, get a good book on phi.

<rickf> phi? 15:39

WRB Analysis

Learn More

<startrader> You will understand the orgins of fibs from a mathematical perspective.

<rickf> i presume it's not options greeks you refer to here

ah yes, ok

<startrader> I like the Golden Ratio by Mario Livino.

<rickf> will add to my to-read list......thx for the info 15:40

take care all, have a good weekend

<startrader> Have a good long weekend see all Tuesday. 15:41

Shorts ES @ 1327.75 15:45

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION =========== 16:10

DJIA down 62.75 points to 12096.46

NASDAQ down 7.22 points to 2339.68

S&P 500 down 8.22 points to 1325.03

10-year T-note down 3/32 at 105 00/32 yield 3.637

NYMEX Spot Crude up $0.44 at $ 90.57/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro down 0.0019 at 1.4623

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={0c4d0 422-c879-429b-bf21-d59ce357e36f}

* codehead is now known as codehead_afk 16:28

<werner> gn all 16:56

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 17:35

* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Jan 18 23:57:06 2008 23:57

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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.