#FuturesTrades realtime trade posting journal on IRC Othernet server for full-time and part-time traders

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#FuturesTrades January 18th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+55.00 +0.0000

$5,500.00 $0.00

FED Chairman Bernanke and Volatility Analysis

Profit/Loss Statement

The market (CME Emini Futures) have been in a low volatility trading condition and such was unusual in comparison to its prior 10 years of historical data.

Thus, I determine that today with the FED chairman Bernanke 10am est speech, 1030am EIA Petroleum Status Report and the 12noon est Philadelphia Fed Survey...

Today we would see the return of volatility and a trend day.

However, I didn't know which way the trend was going to go until my market breadth indices gave me my big clue to get short and with some size along with a little patience if the position initially goes against me.

Resulting in the biggest profitable trading day in several years which is impressive within the overall low volatility trading conditions for the past several months.

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of January...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Thu Jan 18 09:21:59 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:21

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<eminitrader> hi all 09:22

<asuni> GM niha, emini, gm all

<venedom> gm all 09:23

<PapaJon> gm all

<ItalianSharp> morning everyone. Quick reminder: Bernanke is due to speak on fiscal policy at 10am

<pat12> yes.. 09:24

<PapaJon> Thnx IS for th reminder 09:25

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 790.6 «« paper »» 09:30

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 791.10 -> large size 09:35

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.7 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 09:36

that was actuasly 791.6, pressed the wrong numeric key 09:37

<pat12> S er 90.9 09:38

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 790.30 --> - 0.8 09:39

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 790.30

Good position reversal...just need to have patience and hold this Short. 09:40

Shorts ER2 @ 790.70 -> Add 09:41

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<les> Long ER2 @ 790.9 «« paper »» 09:46

live

Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.4 --> + 0.5

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 791.20

<les> i got a fairly good long signal here, but the action looks too uncertain either way right now 09:48

better to scalp and retreat :)

<pat12> yes

<venedom> Covered all ER2 Short @ 789.80 --> + 1.4 09:49

<pat12> vn venedom 09:52

<venedom> TY 09:54

<Brutus> 10:00 Fed Chmn Bernanke testifies before U.S. 09:55

Senate Budget Committee in Washington

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 790.40 09:58

Covered all ER2 Short @ 789.10 --> + 1.3 10:00

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 788.70 --> + 2

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 788.40 --> + 1.9

<pat12> vn niha patience

<NihabaAshi> Big trade for me and I was loaded :) 10:01

<pat12> :)

<NihabaAshi> I'm obviously looking for an intraday position trade and no in-an-outs like I usually do.

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 787.7 «« paper »» 10:02

<NihabaAshi> Will try and hold at least 3 contract remainders for the remainder of the trading day.

Covered ER2 Short @ 787.50 --> + 2.8 10:04

Holding 5 contracts

Covered ER2 Short @ 786.30 --> + 4

Holding 3 contracts for the remainder of the trading day. 10:05

<ItalianSharp> niha, you are gonna set your daily record with this trade

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 784. -> Add «« paper »» 10:06

<les> late post..

<ItalianSharp> this thing is falling like a snowball

<les> action too quick etc

<NihabaAshi> exit stop set ER2 @ 790.00

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 787.4

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 784.7 --> + 2.7 10:07

Shorts ER2 @ 784.3 10:11

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 784.7 -> Add «« paper »» 10:12

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 784 --> + 0.3 10:18

<RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 785.6 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» 10:21

<les> Long ER2 @ 785.9

<RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 785.9 --> - 1.8 «« paper »» 10:22

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:28

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 783.3 --> - 2.6 10:31

oops

Exited all ER2 Long @ 786.3 --> + 0.4

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 785.3 -> Add «« paper »» 10:32

Long ER2 @ 784.1 -> Add «« paper »» 10:33

<venedom> GOT DISCONECTED 10:34

<Brutus> Hammer on the ER 5 min 10:37

<RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 785.2 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 10:41

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 785.5 --> - 2.2 «« paper »» 10:42

thats incorrect, the system already accounted for the sell from 787.7, that close is from 785.2, for a plus .3, holding 1 now from 784.1 10:43

actually, from 784, i see that one of the sells was calculated from 784.1 10:46

either way, was way early, but in the money, and have targets of 788 10:47

Exited all ER2 Long @ 786.8 --> - 0.9 «« paper »» 11:05

oops, thats an exit all

Exited all ER2 Long @ 786.8 --> - 0.9 «« paper »» 11:06

caculator is off, thats three times on same trade group it figured price from 787.7, that last sale was from 784, for a plus 2.8, double entered it since i was scrolled up on chat text reviewing earlier trades 11:08

looks like 788 worked out.

<Brutus> Do a exit all RD to reset?

<RussellDaytrade> just did 2 of those, i will assume its ok, works well most instances. my 'cashier math' still works well. :) 11:10

<Brutus> OK was not paying attention :)

<NihabaAshi> [10:37] <Brutus> Hammer on the ER 5 min 11:15

<RussellDaytrade> itchin to buy again 11:27

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:33

<codehead> long QM 50.325 <paper> 11:38

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:40

<codehead> traded QM live a few times, small wins, still not comfortable with it--actually took USO long small

<NihabaAshi> codehead, you like USO over OIH or XLE ???

<codehead> exit Qm 50.625, +.20 <paper> 11:41

well, i've only traded USO

and have had pretty good luck with it scalping

my target was 50.80, but that was quick so i took it

which is pretty much how i've been trading QM, quick and only part of the move 11:42

.85 already

signal was horizontal trendline break on cci 11:43

i'll look at OIH and XLE 11:44

ok, they are oil services, ya? 11:46

i'm watching Qm, so i think USO a better fit

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<Brutus> January Philadelphia Fed Survey released on 1/18 at 12:00 PM; consensus 5.0 11:59

January Philadelphia Fed Survey released on 1/18 at 12:00 PM; consensus 5.0

<codehead> btw, check the daily volume increase on USO lately 12:23

<NihabaAshi> New Discussion Forum Reminder -> The new forum is at http://www.thestrategylab.com/forum/inde x.php and you need to register before the end of January because the "new password" will ONLY be posted at a private member only link for registered members that email me their new forum name and mIRC name to questions@thestrategylab.com 12:29

Password reference is to #FuturesTrades password.

<pat12> hmmm nha what u mean? 12:42

the new site that u mentioned? 12:43

<NihabaAshi> I got a bullish signal about 5mins ago and I'm not sure if my remaining Shorts will be threaten by it... 12:45

<pat12> niha the pw will be at diff link...? 12:46

<NihabaAshi> If ER2 counter-thrust further upwards...I'll cover what's remaining of my Short position prior to letting it hit my trailing stop that's as a profit stop.

pat12...yes...its this link that has the password... 12:47

http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/fut urestrades.htm

<pat12> ty niha

<NihabaAshi> However, you can't access the password at that link until you become a member of the new forum and then send me and email with your new forum name AND IRC name your using in this room so that I'll know whom you are. 12:48

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:49

<pat12> k that new link u sent us before & i did joined that site ..

will email u ...i will check tonite ..

<NihabaAshi> If your already a member of the new forum...just send me an email with your new forum name and IRC name so that I'll know who you are. 12:50

I need that so I can add your forum name to the access list for that password link. 12:51

http://www.thestrategylab.com/forum/inde x.php

When you register...it will send you an "activation email" that you must click on the link in the email to verify your not using a fake email address. 12:54

<GoodMood> ok niha, just sent the eMail

<NihabaAshi> If you don't see that verification email...it could be in your Junk Mail box.

<pat12> ooops ...but niha i can login to your new site .. 12:55

as I registered when u sent the email..

<NihabaAshi> Your registered at pat12 ?

<pat12> dont recall the verification email tho..

no Niha pat255

<NihabaAshi> The verification email is something I put in today.

<pat12> ah ha ...so i have to re-register? 12:56

<NihabaAshi> No.

If your "already" registered at the New Forum...you do not need to re-register again at the new forum.

<pat12> k...so pl include my nic pat255 ..ty 12:57

<NihabaAshi> However, anyone that has not registered at the new forum...their registration process is a little different in that it requires them to verify their email address.

<pat12> k...i c

i just logged in to your site & was able to log in .. 12:58

niha ...if there is a problem we can contact u thru that new site link? 13:00

i will check that link tonite &go thru it.. 13:01

<RussellDaytrade> Niha, will you be sending an email that outlines and explains the re-registration process, that helps to simplify the steps, etc? 13:03

Long ER2 @ 785.7 «« paper »» 13:05

<NihabaAshi> RD...no...not after announcing it in here. 13:15

It's simple...the old ezboard forum (managed by a third part) will soon no longer be in existence (it will be deleted).

I have a new forum managed and designed by me.

It reguires registration to continue using #FuturesTrades. 13:16

To register...click here...

http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?action=register

<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx, will go thru it later today. can one use same info reagrding irc, etc, so as to not have to reset that portion, and same usernames, etc?

Exited all ER2 Long @ 785.4 --> - 0.3 «« paper »» 13:17

<NihabaAshi> Make sure you check your Inbox or Junk Mail box for an email to validate its really you.

<RussellDaytrade> ok, will do, thx, will do later this pm.

<NihabaAshi> Yes...you can use the same forum name and IRC name.

<pat12> niha just confirm I dont have to re register as I did that when u sent us email...ty

<RussellDaytrade> oh good, that will simplify it, thx. 13:18

<NihabaAshi> Exactly, pat12 you don't have to register again if your already a member of the new forum.

<pat12> kty

<RussellDaytrade> .l 785.4

Long ER2 @ 785.4 «« paper »» 13:19

<pat12> also we can contact u thru the new forum? 13:20

niha i will check the forun tonite ..

<NihabaAshi> Yes...my new forum inbox is @ http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?action=pm;sa=send;u=1 or you can post a message at http://thestrategylab.com/forum/index.ph p?board=33.0 13:23

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 785.4 --> 0 «« paper »»

<pat12> ty niha...ifsoemthing happens can atleast check back with u.. 13:24

<RussellDaytrade> ain't got that gooda read on it right now, feel its more likely to go up, thats why i was buying, but don't have the type of fortitude level i prefer, so closed it. prefer to saty in an 'agressive mode', and use profits of wearlier to finance calculated trades, perhaps a littel later today will have better read on it, with more conviction. 13:28

<NihabaAshi> Just got another bullish signal @ 785.80...hopefully my remaining Short position can survive any counter-thrust back upwards that may occur. 13:33

<codehead> long ER 785.90 <paper> 13:46

<pat12> S es 36.25 paper too

<codehead> jumped the gun on that signal, not so sure... 13:47

<pat12> out b/e paper 13:50

am trades are the best...

<codehead> hm, shoulda exited flat too 13:54

<pat12> in chop ...es gave a scalp..

<NihabaAshi> I have a s/r zone of 785.30 - 783.50 13:55

If volatility doesn't pick up in that s/r zone...it can easily become a Bermuda Triangle (problematic trading area). 13:57

So far...volatility has been slowly increasing since price dropped into that s/r zone. 13:59

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:01

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 784 «« paper »» 14:02

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 784.00 --> + 6.3

Holding 2 contract remainders

<pat12> vn niha ...u were loaded ...vvn trade .. 14:05

<codehead> my internet out went out for a bit, so i left, but stop on paper trade was -1.0 and that hit a while ago 14:07

<pat12> man sometimes even u dont get good entry ..just get in ..

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 782.80 --> + 7.5 14:13

Holding 1 contract remainder

<pat12> wow ..

<NihabaAshi> The volatility sliced right through that s/r zone like a hot knife in butter. 14:14

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 783.2 -> Add «« paper »»

<Brutus> 14:12 EST *DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Falls Below $50/Bbl; 20-Mo Low

<NihabaAshi> Price could not have dropped like that without any volatility.

<venedom> c u tomorrow great day 14:17

<RussellDaytrade> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 784 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

actually sold the higher priced one, long 1 at 783.2, flatted the first trade. 14:18

that was a 'sold half'

i am thinking that volume was climactic enough on that last selloff to hold, (relativelt speaking, forthe time being, etc, intraday, not speaking for longer term) 14:21

may have up target to 786, if that low holds, in aprox 36 minutes from lows, (haven't calcualted the seconds, yet!) 14:23

if lows break with gusto, that target will adjust in time and price, etc.

<codehead> the expiring contract QM hit 49.90, nice bounce into close after the 50 test 14:28

Qm closes here 14:29

(floor trading)

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 782.1 -> Add «« paper »» 14:30

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 781.70 --> + 8.6 14:39

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 14:40

<pat12> nice run ...

<eminitrader> excellent niha :))

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<pat12> wheer u been emini? 14:41

<eminitrader> missed some action 11 - 2 14:43

<pat12> k... 14:44

u are the only one who trades es ..

am switching to es & nq ..

<eminitrader> :) 14:45

look forward to ur company

<pat12> er too wild ...want to lose money at slower pace ..lol

<codehead> long ER 782.30 <paper> 14:48

hm, signal rolled over 14:51

<ItalianSharp> <pat12> er too wild ...want to lose money at slower pace ..lol 14:52

<codehead> exit -1.5 ER <paper>

<ItalianSharp> thats some funny line

lol 14:53

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 780.6 -> Add «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> pat, you think your trading style can exploit ES better than ER?

<pat12> nah but it frays my nerves .. 14:55

<ItalianSharp> it's too wild maybe...tough beast to tame out 14:56

<pat12> es i have time to get out for a pt loss but er can kil u.. or get beter at doing reverse as niha & emini do it..

<ItalianSharp> true, it's tough to have second-guessing on ER...and it's even tougher to reverse your trades...sometimes i am stopped out and a minute i figure i should have reversed 14:59

however, i take most of the responsibility for my lack of reaction...when this happens, it means i didnt even consider reversing...which should always be considered before entering a trade 15:01

<pat12> but IS that is too much thinking ...guess niha emini more experience .. 15:02

<RussellDaytrade> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 781.8 --> + 1.2 «« paper »»

need a breath of air, lower risk exposure 15:03

<pdays> Long YM @ 12602 «« paper »» 15:04

<ItalianSharp> pat12, i dont think niha and emini just turn on their PCs 1min before market open and perform 100% inspirational trading without any plan...as far as i know, niha prepares himself before market open 15:06

<pat12> no i did not say that but they are good at reversing a trade & make something out ... itake a stop 15:07

<ItalianSharp> it might be a coincidence, but all the times i failed to prepare myself for the open i got my ass handed to me

<pat12> yeh but in the trade u have to react ..& react corrcetly 15:08

<ItalianSharp> pat, i know reversing is almost innatural to apply to trading...heck, you just had a loss, and here we go in the other direction??? perhaps we as human beings need more time to elaborate the loss, think it over, etc...unfortunately the markets dont give you that much time

<pat12> right

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:10

<pdays> Exited all YM Long @ 12607 --> + 5 «« paper »» 15:13

<RussellDaytrade> going to have breakfast now, stepping away, will sell 782.5 and above, and take the loss on the first one of group, (if gets there)

Exited all ER2 Long @ 782.5 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» 15:15

thats a loss of -.7, from the last open long priced 783.2. time for soem chow, looks a bit higher, made money on group trade, small profit, DD artios still skewed too much for my liking. 15:17

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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