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#FuturesTrades January 17th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+16.10 +0.0000

$1,610.00 $0.00

Position Size Management and FED Beige Book

Profit/Loss Statement

The FED Beige Book of regional economic conditions is an excellent spark to pending volatility and usually things begin heating up around 1:55pm est.

However, the market has been sluggish these past few trading days and the FED Beige Book didn't seem to provide any inspiration that volatility levels will return to normal for the remainder of January.

You should also read my commentary in the below chat log about what I plan to do if the Russell 2000 ER2 Emini Futures continues with its low volatility trading price action.

With that said, I just want to remind those that are reading my summary of my trading day and the below chat log that shows traders using different trade methods posting their trades in realtime...

I myself use a volatility methodology based upon WRB Analysis.

Simply, more often than not I am doing large position size (6-12 contracts) in the first two hours of trading because this is where the volatility tends to occur.

Then as the trading day progresses into the p.m. (est) trading session, I reduce my position size dramatically to 1-3 contracts to protect my morning profits and to spend time managing the website.

Therefore, overall, I'm averaging around 4.3 contracts per trade by the end of the trading day.

Also, I'm not concerned with win:loss ratios nor risk:reward ratios because I manage my risk via position size management, WRB Analysis, intraday market cycles and market seasonal cycles.

All I'm saying is this...your at a disadvantage if you trade every trading day via the same position size or the same pattern signal via the same position size because the market is not the same every trading day.

Thus, to trade via the same position size is to say that the market is the same every trading day.

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of January...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Wed Jan 17 09:34:53 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:34

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 793.1 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 09:35

<werner> gm niha

<NihabaAshi> Good morning all...got a late start to the trading day.

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1437 09:36

<NihabaAshi> I have baby sitting duties while spouse needs to go out and help a friend (too darn cold to take the newborn outside).

Be back later.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<wizardofrijnsaterwou> gm everybody 09:37

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1438 --> + 1 09:39

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 09:42

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1437 --> 0 09:45

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1851.25 «« paper »» 09:47

need a Volatility spike hopefully to upside to get out of this Long 09:51

Exited all Long NQ at 1853.75 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»

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<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.3 «« paper »» 09:56

Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.1 --> + 0.2 «« paper »» 09:58

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1849.25 «« paper »» 10:02

<RussellDaytrade> hold and bounce today. or drift down? 10:05

<szubaark> dont like this Short as its starting to Chop.. needs to move NOW 10:06

spike down allowing me to take profit is what i need :) 10:07

selling pressure obvious 10:08

<les> Long ER2 @ 793.5 10:12

<PapaJon> wow... great entry les... hehe

<les> it was ?

<PapaJon> i think you must have meant 794.5? 10:13

<les> oh

oops he said

<PapaJon> hehe

<les> Long ER2 @ 794.7

<szubaark> thats better

<PapaJon> :)

<les> yup

<RussellDaytrade> i liked 793.5 the best!

<les> no its not better... 10:14

here's why:

Long ER2 @ 794.1 «« paper »»

hehe

<PapaJon> hehe

<szubaark> another reason not to take anybody's trades in here :))) 10:15

<les> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 794.6 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> narrow range so far this am

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.8 --> + 0.7 «« paper »» 10:18

the clac is wrong

calc

should be +.10 10:19

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 794.50 -> small size 10:22

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1853 «« paper »» 10:23

big battle here, we make new lows or this holds? 10:24

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 794.20 -> Add 10:26

<RussellDaytrade> 788 sometime today?

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 794.80 --> + 0.6 10:27

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.60 --> + 0.1 10:28

<szubaark> not much wiggle room with my bad entry almost at the lows

i was looking for followthru to downside but they stopped and now this chop :) 10:29

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 794 «« paper »» 10:30

Covered all ER2 Short @ 793.2 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 10:31

<les> Long ER2 @ 794.7 «« paper »» 10:36

<szubaark> directionless market.

Covered all Short NQ at 1853 --> - 3.75 «« paper »»

<les> Long ER2 @ 794.2 «« paper »» 10:37

<RussellDaytrade> think you gotta better fill on that les

<les> entry correction

i'll ley u know when it fills :)

<RussellDaytrade> i;ll sell you one at 794.1! 10:38

<les> i bet ya would

<RussellDaytrade> so afr today, it's a 'sell every time they pop their heads outta the foxhole' 10:39

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:40

<les> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 794.7 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:41

* szubaark is now known as szubaark-away 10:44

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.3 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 10:50

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 794.5 «« paper »» 10:52

Covered all ER2 Short @ 794.6 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 10:53

highly unlikely could have entered an order that fast without one-click or hot keys enabled 10:54

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<NihabaAshi> Announcement: ER2 volatility has been consistently low and more at equilibrium during the first two hours of trading for a few months now...making it more stressful to trade for me. 11:01

Thus, if it continues by the 1st of March...I will be switching to CME EuroFX EC.

Last such trading instrument change for me was when I moved from ES Emini into ER2 Emini. 11:02

Basically for the same reasons.

"Declining Volatility"

<pat12> yes niha er2 has become untradeble ...

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.7 «« paper »» 11:05

Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.6 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 11:15

Shorts ER2 @ 796.9 «« paper »» 11:16

Covered all ER2 Short @ 795.9 --> + 1 «« paper »» 11:19

that one was likely good for a hold for a longer timeframe 11:20

<PapaJon> man.. this is excrutiating 11:29

<eminitrader> more like a cocktail friday :)

<PapaJon> i dunno.. but my sigs are not working well today.. 11:30

<eminitrader> hehehe

<ItalianSharp> papjon: dont worry about your signals...the markets suck, very difficult to make cash today

<PapaJon> no funny et...

<eminitrader> can only place orders here after a few cocktails

<PapaJon> hehe

<werner> lol

<eminitrader> u take any trades trades today pj 11:31

<ItalianSharp> i am leaving this crap alone until something happens...i am not participating in the 1-2 tick war going on since the open

<PapaJon> yes

in my second one right now

bout to lose on it too

damit

<eminitrader> k.....good luck ..never know

<PapaJon> out now

was short 11:32

<eminitrader> tough holding shorts in these mrkts

<ItalianSharp> eminitrader: yesterday it tough holding longs

<pat12> yes emini...

<PapaJon> well.. had a long signal.. and went long.. then it touched my target but dint fill and reverse and gave me a short signal... 11:33

<eminitrader> true IS

<PapaJon> so i reversed my possition...

so.. took it in the shorts twice ...

shorts - bermuda shorts

<eminitrader> one of those days :(

<PapaJon> yep

perhaps i should leave now for the day 11:34

have a lot of work to do anyway at the jobsite

<eminitrader> maybe after the beige book...tradable pm session

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 797.2 «« paper »» 11:35

<PapaJon> i wont be back in time

<eminitrader> k..see u later

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 797.5 --> - 0.3 «« paper »» 11:36

<PapaJon> is this action typical of a beige book day? et?

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 797.2 «« paper »» 11:37

<eminitrader> on the ES yes,,pj ...just taking out stops till 200

2:00pm

<PapaJon> gotcha

well ,maybe tomorrow will be better 11:38

<eminitrader> biut the ER ...after yest selling ..compression spring back...l30 60 min chatrs all say long

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.7 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»

794.5 on this move? 11:43

<eminitrader> prolly 94-95

<RussellDaytrade> seems like an area that may be an uncle-point. 11:44

<eminitrader> :)

er supp area 795.70 - 794.70 11:48

can expect a bounce in this area for a quick scalp

<Brutus> That bounce can be a weeks pay :) 11:49

<eminitrader> lol 11:50

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:52

<pat12> in es emini?

<eminitrader> no pat ataking abt rer 11:53

er

<pat12> k...

<eminitrader> es supp area as per my read = 38.50-37.50 11:54

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.8 «« paper »» 11:55

Covered all ER2 Short @ 797 --> - 0.2 «« paper »» 11:56

not sure where i 'm going with it, just know i'll close it quick if moves against me. 11:57

stop 797

<eminitrader> u got in at the right price...wld have been my pt 1 if taken the long at 95.70 11:58

<RussellDaytrade> hoping 795.7 will be pivot point for lower move, and don't get stopped prior, etc

Covered all ER2 Short @ 797.1 --> - 0.3 «« paper »»

Shorts ER2 @ 797.3 «« paper »» 11:59

Covered all ER2 Short @ 797.6 --> - 0.3 «« paper »» 12:00

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Jan 17 12:00:28 2007

Session Start: Wed Jan 17 12:07:02 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 12:07

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 798.3 -> Add «« paper »» 12:29

hey 'ole tiger, can you send an angel my way about now? 12:35

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 797.5 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 12:40

closed lower priced one for a -.10

Covered all ER2 Short @ 798.5 --> - 1.1 «« paper »» 13:02

thats a -.2, kinda hate to give that one up, startin to feel like an old friend. 13:03

Shorts ER2 @ 798.3 «« paper »»

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:04

<RussellDaytrade> steppin away, will cover at 797, if gets there, +/-

Covered all ER2 Short @ 797 --> + 1.3 «« paper »» 13:10

Shorts ER2 @ 797.7 «« paper »» 13:17

i gotta 795.5 target working. 13:38

will have to 'drop like a rock' to work out. 13:39

<eminitrader> never know 13:43

<RussellDaytrade> dang, typing email, wonder if it was best to cover that on initial drop as per usual? 13:47

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility slowly picking up as we near the 2pm est Beige Book. 13:48

Remember, this is the book that some participants get early access to it around 1:55pm est

Book = Fed Commentary

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.6 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 13:51

<eminitrader> nice

thx niha...never knew that 13:52

<RussellDaytrade> one day i hope to hold those for longer. thx 'ole tiger for sending a few angels this am. 13:53

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 796.20 -> small size 13:54

:( 14:00

<RussellDaytrade> calling that target filled., within .3 / with 5 minutes to go on time component., close enough. 14:01

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 797.00 --> - 0.8 14:02

Long ER2 @ 798.00 -> large size 14:03

Tough spot for me...if I get a Short signal...I'm going to have to wait for "confirmation" and that would mean I'm at a sizable loss on my Long. 14:07

Exited ER2 Long @ 797.20 --> - 0.8

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 797.20

Small size short...looking to ADD. 14:08

Shorts ER2 @ 797.20 -> Add

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:13

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 795.80 --> + 1.4

<pat12> vn ..

<NihabaAshi> Thanks...more than a point on a larger position size in comparison to a smaller loss on a lesser position size. 14:14

<ItalianSharp> well done niha 14:16

you are too good man

<NihabaAshi> As usual during declining volatility conditions the past few months or any time there's low volatility... 14:17

Position Size Management becomes critical in comparison to win:loss ratios.

ER2 still in trouble...it should not be trying to find support here around 795.80 :( 14:19

Covered ER2 Short @ 794.70 --> + 2.5 14:22

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 794.7 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Holding 3 contracts remainders

<pat12> vn niha ...made up...:) 14:23

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 795.1 --> + 0.4 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Yep and I got my profit target goal for the day.

<pat12> :)

<szubaark-away> so Niha trading 1 contract can you even make money at this? 14:24

<NihabaAshi> Yes...I'll also be making less trades as in no intuition trades. 14:25

<ItalianSharp> szu: trading 1 contract means you have to have high winning% and do almost "perfect" trading...yet, you are at a disavdantage compared to multiple-contract trading because when you catch a nice trend you can't milk the cow enough...you are forced to be very realistic with your profit targets 14:27

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 795.2 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> ER2 fighting hard to find another support area. 14:28

Covered ER2 Short @ 795.60 --> + 1.6

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 795.5 --> + 0.3 «« paper »» 14:29

<NihabaAshi> Holding 2 contracts remainders

<RussellDaytrade> my fortitude is skewed towards short.

<pat12> too late to S beware of covering 14:30

<RussellDaytrade> tried to chase it (long), which is not usual for me, can't seem to hold it when it even hesittaes. 14:31

that said, we likely have up targets working, which is why i'm trying to go long, but just don't trust it long. 14:32

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 794.90 --> + 2.3 14:33

Holding 1 contract remainder 14:34

<werner> nice

<RussellDaytrade> here's your station, coming up, or down rather. 14:50

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 794.00 --> + 3.2 14:51

Long ER2 @ 794.40 -> small size 14:52

1 contract only even though it is a pattern signal for me.

<RussellDaytrade> excellent navigational skills.

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 794.80 --> + 0.4 14:53

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

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<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 793.3 «« paper »» 15:12

late entry again, eamiling, etc 15:14

Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 15:15

late entry = early exit

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:25

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 793.9 «« paper »» 15:39

Exited all ER2 Long @ 799.8 --> + 5.9 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 793.4 «« paper »» 15:42

<pat12> c u all later ty 15:43

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793 --> - 0.4 «« paper »» 15:45

<NihabaAshi_away> Just got back... 16:26

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<werner> gn all 16:35

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:37

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 17:49

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Jan 17 18:26:45 2007 18:26

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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