#FuturesTrades January 10th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log
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ER2 EuroFX EC +10.30 +0.0000 $1,030.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
I took it easy today in my trading and took only good risk trades that would allow me to easily minimize the damage had my price action analysis been wrong.
Still having problems with the diseased tooth and the final stages of the root canal will be completed by Monday although currently I'm not sleeping too well because of the sinus problem caused by the tooth.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of January...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Wed Jan 10 09:25:07 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:25 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <pat255> gm all <venedom> gm 09:29 <NihabaAshi> I'm neutral this morning...the BIG GAP down took away my Bullish bias. 09:34 <PapaJon> g, a;; opps 09:35 gm all jeeze.. havent finished my first cup of joe yet <pat255> l 778.6 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 778.20 -> small size <pat255> out 779 09:37 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 779.30 --> + 1.1 09:38 <pat255> vn <NihabaAshi> :) No pattern signal but a good risk trade that would have been easy to reverse into a Short position if I was wrong. 09:39 <venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 778.80 -> small size 09:41 Covered all ER2 Short @ 777.80 --> + 1 <werner> gm all 09:45 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 778.60 -> small size 09:46 2 contracts only <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1803 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> If volatility can pick up (currently its about equilibrium) this could turn into a few points per contract for me. 09:47 It's trying but volatility still almost equal for each passing interval. 09:48 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1805.25 --> + 2.25 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> :( 09:50 Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 778.90 --> + 0.3 Shorts ER2 @ 779.70 -> small size 09:52 That's trade error number 1 :( 09:53 One more and I'm done for the day. Covered all ER2 Short @ 779.50 --> + 0.2 <ItalianSharp> niha, you have been making lots of errors lately...is it due to your toothache? 09:54 <NihabaAshi> Probably. 09:55 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1414.25 <NihabaAshi> However, January so far has been abnormally low volatility for the Eminis and other key markets like EuroFX EC (EurUsd). Thus, low volatility trading and some minor health problems hasn't allowed me to get in sync with the market. 09:56 <ItalianSharp> yep niha, tough times for rookies like me...i think only very experienced traders can still make decent money in this market <eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1415.75 --> + 1.5 <ItalianSharp> the very unusual thins i have noticed about ER2 recently, as opposed to semptember, october, november and part of december, is the velocity with which every small movement is retraced 09:57 thins = thing <NihabaAshi> Yep 09:58 <ItalianSharp> that makes it literally impossible for me to hold onto winners heck, i already had 4 trades today and i am up 5 ticks...and i actually am happy watching the price action <RussellDaytrade> Niha, i am curious whether some of your trades input errors occur from 1-click order entry functionality, or, hotkeys, etc? <PapaJon> agree IS... seems the momo is reduced considerably 09:59 <NihabaAshi> RD...a little of both (hotkeys and 1 click order entry errors). <PapaJon> I suspect its due to scalp-o-rama action <NihabaAshi> I use to make more hotkey errors because I had my F3 as buy and F4 as sell... 10:00 <ItalianSharp> i think its a matter of time before volatility comes back to normal <pdays> Wholesale est .5 in at 1.3 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> The closeness of the keys increased the odds of hitting the wrong key. <RussellDaytrade> seems like a 'natural' type of occurance, ie, rapidly responding and occassionaly select the 'previous' key, etc. <NihabaAshi> Now I have two keys betweent the buy and sell hotkeys. I'm also using one of those Ergo keyboards... 10:01 Still not completely use to 1/2 my keys on one side and the other 1/2 on the other side on a slope :) <RussellDaytrade> i think many finacial institutions have colr-coded keys, green, red, and so on. <eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1417.25 --> + 3 10:02 <szubaark> nice hold emini <NihabaAshi> I saw someone at ET with such and that will probably by my next Key board experimentation. <pat255> vnmini e <NihabaAshi> In reference to the color coded hot keys. <eminitrader> thx szu...was thinking abt gap fill...but gave up <ItalianSharp> something that i learned during this low volatility days is that i tended to measure daily volatility on the basis of daily range...which to some extent is correct...however, a high daily range doesnt necessarily imply good opportunities...as far as i am concerned, today ER2 could have a 15pt range, which would sound very good, yet if the price action continues to be like this, it wont offer many opportunities... ....hence, i came up with the conclusion that its not about HOW MUCH the market moves, but HOW it moves... 10:03 i remember making good money on days in which ER2 ranged for like 5-6 points total... <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1810.25 «« paper »» <eminitrader> es gap not yet filled 10:04 <asuni> same in russell 10:05 <eminitrader> looks like nq is the only one then <szubaark> nq moved 8 points up. looking for a small retrace 10:06 <RussellDaytrade> IS, i agree with your statement that volatility not neccessaririly a function of total range, see same in stats, however, the volatility has increased since the first of this year, though it does seem to be slowing some today. 10:07 <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1415.75 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1807.50 --> + 2.75 «« paper »» <eminitrader> nice quick one szu :) 10:08 <szubaark> thats was the plan :) <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1415.50 --> + 0.25 10:11 <NihabaAshi> Horrible range and with the volatility so equalized from interval to the next...extremely difficult trading conditions. 10:17 Long ER2 @ 781.90 -> small size 10:19 Exited ER2 Long @ 781.10 --> - 0.8 10:22 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 781.10 Reversed into a larger position. 10:23 <Brutus> Long ER2 @ 780.7 10:24 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 780.30 --> + 0.8 10:26 <Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 780.1 --> - 0.6 10:27 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 779.90 --> + 1.2 <wizardofrijnsaterwou> hehe 10:28 <werner> yo wizie 10:30 <pdays> petro #s larger inventories than est. <NihabaAshi> I don't see any technical reason for this to find support at this price area and bounce back up. Therefore, I'm still going to hold my remainders until I'm forced out of the trade or profit target is reached. 10:31 Now I see a technical reason for a bounce back upwards :( 10:32 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 779.40 --> + 1.7 10:33 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1816 «« paper »» 10:44 Covered all Short NQ at 1819.25 --> - 3.25 «« paper »» 10:45 Buys NQ @ 1819.25 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Just got back...busy cleaning the dental oral surgery stitches in my mouth. 10:47 <Brutus> NQ above yest high AAPL GOOG YHOO look very strong <NihabaAshi> Looks like I missed a nice pop up to a new intraday high :( <Brutus> AAPL is going to break $100 soon and then will really pop 10:50 * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:55 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 782 «« paper »» 10:58 <pat255> k guys later ty all...back to work <Brutus> Niha have your looked at this http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread .php?s=&threadid=75699 10:59 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 781.80 -> small size 11:00 Covered all ER2 Short @ 781.40 --> + 0.4 11:01 <szubaark> need one more Pop to upside 11:08 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:09 <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 780.8 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 11:10 i actually think it'll see 777 again today 3 hours or so from highs <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1816 --> - 3.25 «« paper »» 11:26 Stupid Trade got Long at New High of day :)) no followthru as always and im Toast! 11:27 <RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 779.5 «« paper »» 11:46 Exited all ER2 Long @ 780.3 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 11:52 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:21 <ItalianSharp> fed president moscrow is speaking now 12:28 <RussellDaytrade> i think that was likely close enough to satisfy that 777 call., though it may see a little more down. 12:31 <Brutus> Good call RD and some good trades today. Could be a little more downside on the ER, I dont see much bounce in it 12:51 <RussellDaytrade> thx Brut, i really wanted to stay with the origianl short trade, temptation for sure-thing/default impulse to ring-register won out... 12:55 <Brutus> :) wait till you see that $ counter running, now thats hard 12:57 <RussellDaytrade> model sez up approx 4 from lows in about an hour, from lows. got busy emailing to take my preferred entry. 12:58 thats a problem i'd like to have. :) <Brutus> Maybe I'm statistically wrong, but noticed once you have a couple of good trades you seem to step in front of a really bad one. Something to consider 13:00 <RussellDaytrade> yep, good point, and there isa fair amount of 'statistical' :) data / observation to that. sometimes, it works great for several (or more) in a row, then it / i misfire / press the luck, etc... 13:03 by the same token, it is perhaps evem more staitistically significant, that after a period of several or more misses, the odds favor the model targets really fullfilling well, and even exceeding, (since it is designed for countermoves, and after missing, it usually signifys the market is either oeverbought/ovwersod by a fair amount, and ready to turn, etc...good observation(s). excellent, in fact. 13:06 <Brutus> ES wants to close the gap, ER and NQ are at opposite ends today 13:16 <RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view¤t=er 1-10-07rttt.jpg 13:18 lines on charts 13:19 <Brutus> Large 5k ask at 1420.00 RD do you use/consider the times for your projections like the 10:30 reversal 13:21 <RussellDaytrade> no, haven't factored those types of imputs Brut, though i think in many instances would be strong coincidentals. mostly staitistically based with approx years worht of data of intraday moves, coupled with a bit of 'operator discretion'. 13:24 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:33 <venedom> c u all tomorrow, have to go check what did chaves do today (I am in venezuela) 13:35 <Brutus> Hope you dont hold local stocks. 13:36 <RussellDaytrade> Castro seized my parents phamarcy, in 1959. 13:39 along with just about everything else in sight. parents said goodbye to Cuba after that, (took us with them) :) 13:40 <Brutus> Thats it I'm going to to trade ES in the afternoons. 13:43 <PapaJon> er2 not playing well with others today 13:45 <Brutus> I use to trade ES for 2 to 4 points, then went to ER for the increased $ per point but its like going from panadol to morphine, you lose all perspective :) 13:47 NOtice how the R2K had a good run in the 2005to early 2006 and it seems when funds exitied how volatility increased in it. Well now it seems its the ES and NQ having that shift. 13:49 ES has more structure to its moves 13:53 <RussellDaytrade> a question to ask may be, which will win-out, ie, will the er pull the other two back in, or will the nq/es pull the er up? just referring to today's action, though it may carry into multiple days. 13:58 <PapaJon> er2 is looking like one of those (jperl "I dont trade here") situations 14:09 <ItalianSharp> by the way, where are jperl and les? 14:10 <PapaJon> speaking of such... anyone seen jperl around? hehe les is away on retreat <ItalianSharp> that's a long retreat is he travelling? <PapaJon> well... business issues then followed by a retreat <ItalianSharp> alright...good for him to miss trading this crappy market 14:11 i wish i wan on retreat too <PapaJon> no.. sumtin to do with his psychiatry stuff hehe.. wissh i could afford one.. actually.. i could.. but my company business is slammed right now 14:12 so.. cant afford the time for it <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 781.5 «« paper »» 14:18 risk = hypothetical paper profits of earlier today, small targets, .50-.80. 14:20 stop moved to BE 14:21 Covered all ER2 Short @ 780.8 --> + 0.7 «« paper »» <pat255> emini u trading? 14:31 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:45 <RussellDaytrade> market gets traction and rips up tomorrow off the back of oil down? so far oil down has droqued market. 14:50 <ItalianSharp> markets look dead yet they are slowly creeping to make new intraday highs... 15:29 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:57 * DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Jan 10 16:26:10 2007 16:26 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) Sponsor: Sponsor:
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